War with...Iran?

Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov

Smack-Fu Master, in training
17
Does everyone remember how Iran became an Islamic Republic? It wasnt forced on them, the Iranian people actually voted for it.

Many people in Iran seem to want a less draconian version of an Islamic State but I'm not so sure they want to toss it in the bin either. The problem is, of course, that accurately gauging that is nigh impossible.
Rewriting History? Iran was freed from its imperial shackles by a student movement powered and trained by Marxist-Leninist guerrilas... which then fell apart by squabbles between the Maoist and Trotskyist factions. The Islamic Republic took advantage of the division, seized power and cemented it during the Iraq invasion of Iran.

None of the students demonstrating against the shah thought they'd be forced to live in a religious dictatorship. They are the true heroes of the revolution, repressed and killed again and again, always rising up against the original injustice of foreign intervention, the latest of which is represented by the current regime.

Lots of sources, but here's one: https://newleftreview.org/issues/i1...perialism-the-left-and-revolution-in-iran.pdf
 

FinallyAnAccount

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I keep seeing this argument as if some revelation in the Epstein files is going to be the thing that finally turns MAGA against Trump and sinks his presidency.

At this point, I believe MAGA is solidly behind Trump no matter what, and his following is only growing, not shrinking. This isn't 1974 where a scandal can topple an administration (certainly not this one).
TBH, I think MAGA generally doesn't care about Epstein and ostensibly doesn't want Trump starting wars. They were always going to vote Trump (probably even with the warmongering). That's not who this is aimed at.

This is aimed at the uninformed people who might actually might not have heard about the recent Epstein allegations from an underage girl specifically at Trump that the DOJ redacted from their published documents. Those folk could potentially swing an election. I'd argue it's working.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg3elr1dwpo
https://www.npr.org/2026/02/24/nx-s1-5723968/epstein-files-trump-accusation-maxwell
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/26/trump-epstein-files-fbi
 

FinallyAnAccount

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Don't want to edit my above post after it has reaction, but if I were Iran/Venezuela/tariffs/SCOTUS/whatever, I'd be tempted to append those allegations/articles/links to every single press release. Probably more effective than opposing the US military, maybe if that keeps happening he'll realize that whenever he's attacking, these allegations get surfaced.
 

Sajuuk

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Hegseth says Iran won’t be a ‘politically correct’ war as he lays out US objectives: ‘No democracy-building exercise’

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth championed President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran in a press conference Monday morning, refuting concerns from the “fake news” media and “political left” that the conflict would lead to an “endless war.”

“To the media outlets and political left screaming ‘endless wars,’ stop. This is not Iraq. This is not endless,” Hegseth said. “Our generation knows better and so does this president.”

The future of American foreign policy is here, and it’s just hyper gunboat diplomacy all the way down.
 

Crolis

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https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/us/politics/poll-americans-support-iran-attack.html

In a pre-strike poll only 21% of Americans Support the United States Initiating an Attack on Iran.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/03/01/iran-attack-trump-poll/88933730007/
In a post-strike poll:

In the Reuters/Ipsos survey, some 27% of respondents said they approved of the strikes, while a majority said they were either unsure about them (29%) or said they disapproved (43%).

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/us/politics/trump-iran-attack-democratic-divisions.html

Meanwhile, the Dems as always fall to the occasion.

“We can’t allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon,” Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona said in an interview on NBC’s “Meet The Press” on Sunday. But, he added, “this administration, my sense is that they did not go into this with any kind of strategic plan. It was an operation with no discussion about what comes next.”

Right so if there was a strategic plan we'd all be perfectly fine with a war of aggression on Iran. President Mark Kelly will be a warmonger if elected, noted.

Some Democrats, including Governors Gavin Newsom of California and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, criticized the repressiveness of the Iranian regime and insisted in the hours after the attack that it must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, even as they slammed Mr. Trump’s approach, saying it endangered Americans and undermined the country’s national security interests.

Add a couple more to the list.

But another group, including Representative Ro Khanna, of California, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a progressive from New York, kept their focus squarely on Mr. Trump. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez charged in a statement that the president made “a deliberate choice of aggression when diplomacy and security were within reach,” accusing him of lying to the nation.

Unsurprisingly there are a few that are usually on the correct side of history.
 

karolus

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Peldor

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The future of American foreign policy is here, and it’s just hyper gunboat diplomacy all the way down.
I would be surprised if there was any move to put troops on the ground. Trump has been reasonably consistent with lobbing air strikes with all the impunity of the world's most capable air force. It's basically always a winning situation in his zero-sum view.

Even when it's a couple of yokels in a small boat that would be utterly trivial to seize, they go for an air strike.
 

Technarch

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Hegseth says Iran won’t be a ‘politically correct’ war as he lays out US objectives: ‘No democracy-building exercise’



The future of American foreign policy is here, and it’s just hyper gunboat diplomacy all the way down.

At best this means they intend to install a puppet government that will hand over the oil. But the article really gives the impression that they don't even have an end goal in mind. It's like they found a slightly less flimsy pretext to bomb brown people so they're gonna bomb brown people because it makes them feel tough.

Four U.S. dead so far.
 

Wheels Of Confusion

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Hegseth says Iran won’t be a ‘politically correct’ war as he lays out US objectives: ‘No democracy-building exercise’



The future of American foreign policy is here, and it’s just hyper gunboat diplomacy all the way down.
I was reading this and a couple of things jumped out at me:
Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth said Monday the U.S.-Israeli action against Iran was in response to the Islamic republic's years-long targeting of the U.S. military and interests around the world.
"We didn't start this war but under President Trump we're finishing it," he said.
"We didn't start the war," says aggressor who literally started the war.
"This is not a so-called regime change war, but the regime sure did change," Hegseth said.
See prior coverage before the strikes:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politi...-after-sending-2nd-aircraft-carrier-to-region
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump said Friday that a change in power in Iran "would be the best thing that could happen" as the U.S. administration weighs whether to take military action against Tehran.
Trump made the comments shortly after visiting with troops at Ft. Bragg, North Carolina, and after he confirmed earlier in the day that he's deploying a second aircraft carrier group to the Mideast.
"It seems like that would be the best thing that could happen," Trump said in an exchange with reporters when asked about pressing for the ouster of the Islamic clerical rule in Iran. "For 47 years, they've been talking and talking and talking."
[...]
Trump's comments advocating for a potential end to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's rule come just weeks after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a potential change in power in Iran would be "far more complex" than the administration's recent effort to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power.
Rubio, during a Senate hearing last month, noted that with Iran "you're talking about a regime that's in place for a very long time."
"So that's going to require a lot of careful thinking, if that eventuality ever presents itself," Rubio said.
https://spia.princeton.edu/news/behind-headline-us-iran-crisis-explained
Daniel Kurtzer: The administration points to three reasons for its aggressive stance toward Iran and its preparations for attacking Iran. First, there are uncorroborated assertions that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program, which Trump said the U.S. “obliterated” last June. Thus far, the administration has provided no proof that this is the case.
Second, the U.S. has always been concerned about Iran’s missile arsenal and development. Here, too, however, proof has been missing. And third, Trump encouraged Iranian protestors throughout their demonstrations and basically called for regime change. A likely fourth reason for U.S. actions is to pressure Iran in the negotiations being held under Oman’s auspices.
The bottom line is we don’t really know why the U.S. appears to be preparing for war with Iran. Trump has not yet briefed Congress or spoken to the American people about a possible military action that could inflame regional tensions and spark a bloody conflict.
Day of: https://www.npr.org/2026/03/01/nx-s1-5731333/iran-us-israel-strikes
Trump had posted on Truth Social that Israel, with U.S. support, had killed Khamenei.
"He was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do," Trump said.
[...]
Trump also told the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to surrender: "Lay down your arms. You will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death."
Back to today's story, we have this pretty frank admission from the head of the JCOS:
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs said some of the work was the result of "months, and in some cases, years, of deliberate planning and refinement."
He said the initial phase targeted Iranians' command and control infrastructure, naval forces, ballistic missile sites and intelligence infrastructure, "leaving the adversary without the ability to see, coordinate or respond effectively."
"This is not a regime change, we just carefully targeted everyone in the regime who had authority and decision-making capabilities after giving them no acceptable off-ramp to avoid the war."

Hegseth said the U.S. goal in Iran was to "destroy the missile threats, destroy the navy, no nukes." He rejected the notion that the conflict would be prolonged or would engage in nation-building.
Translation: "We're just going to bomb the everloving fuck out of them and hope for the best. That's our plan."
 

John Abbe

Smack-Fu Master, in training
52

Hegseth says Iran won’t be a ‘politically correct’ war as he lays out US objectives: ‘No democracy-building exercise’



The future of American foreign policy is here, and it’s just hyper gunboat diplomacy all the way down.

Hegseth: "no nation building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise"

They hate democracy, we see that here in the USA every day, but no nation-building either? In other words, just leave Iran to implode into conflict? There is no plan here, they want to break something and not own it but it's too late for that. Trump and the MAGA administration started this war and now MAGA owns it.
 

Crolis

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Hegseth: "no nation building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise"

They hate democracy, we see that here in the USA every day, but no nation-building either? In other words, just leave Iran to implode into conflict? There is no plan here, they want to break something and not own it but it's too late for that. Trump and the MAGA administration started this war and now MAGA owns it.

Worry not, no way that spills outside of Iran.
 

mpat

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TBH, I think MAGA generally doesn't care about Epstein and ostensibly doesn't want Trump starting wars. They were always going to vote Trump (probably even with the warmongering). That's not who this is aimed at.

This is aimed at the uninformed people who might actually might not have heard about the recent Epstein allegations from an underage girl specifically at Trump that the DOJ redacted from their published documents. Those folk could potentially swing an election. I'd argue it's working.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg3elr1dwpo
https://www.npr.org/2026/02/24/nx-s1-5723968/epstein-files-trump-accusation-maxwell
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/26/trump-epstein-files-fbi
I forget where I saw this, but it seems like a good way to summarize the situation:

Why did Trump et al launch an operation called Epic Fury?
Because they’re fucking children.
 

Wheels Of Confusion

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Hegseth: "no nation building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise"

They hate democracy, we see that here in the USA every day, but no nation-building either? In other words, just leave Iran to implode into conflict? There is no plan here, they want to break something and not own it but it's too late for that. Trump and the MAGA administration started this war and now MAGA owns it.
"What do you mean 'shooting the bad guy doesn't solve the problem'?"
 

wco81

Ars Legatus Legionis
32,326
The IDF has done targeted assassinations in Gaza without any regard for collateral damage due to the location of the target, though. It would be entirely within the expected actions of the IDF to strike an elementary school if one of the kid's parents happened to be an IRCG officer (or even member) and said parent happened to be dropping off their child, picking them up for illness, or attending a school play or something. From the targeting of Hamas officials in the middle of refugee camps where Gazans were explicitly told to go for safety, I expect exactly zero restraint from the IDF at a children's school (if not a point in favor of striking).

Yeah nobody should have any illusions about what Israelis think of civilian casualties other than their own.
 

concernUrsus

Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
862
I forget where I saw this, but it seems like a good way to summarize the situation:

Why did Trump et al launch an operation called Epic Fury?
Because they’re fucking children.

I just assume they really like furries... /s
"What do you mean 'shooting the bad guy doesn't solve the problem'?"

It does kind of solve some of the problem. You create more enemies and more attacks, but in general the attack would be weaker. For leaders, they are usually well protected. It is the plebs that will get hurt. They can gain a lot of glory and profit through wars.

May be I am cynical, I think most wars are not worth it. Ware are used to boost leaders ego, consolidated power through nativism, or pure greed (take others' properties).
 
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Zod

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oTPolitically Correct. Whether he likes it or not, Hegseth has betrayed the timeframe and mindset from which his thinking is derived.
Hegseth is a deeply unserious, immature man in charge of the world’s most powerful military. he was never not going to use the toys at his disposal.
 

herko

Impoverished space lobster “doctor”
6,864
Moderator
I forget where I saw this, but it seems like a good way to summarize the situation:

Why did Trump et al launch an operation called Epic Fury?
Because they’re fucking children.
/// OFFICIAL MODERATION NOTICE ///


Ha ha child rape jokes are so very funny.

Last warning to everyone: no more child rape jokes. Want to have a conversation about whether the American government is staffed by pedophiles? Then have that conversation, in a different thread. I’m going to start kicking people out otherwise.

 
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mpat

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/// OFFICIAL MODERATION NOTICE ///


Ha ha child rape jokes are so very funny.

Last warning to everyone: no more child rape jokes. Want to have a conversation about whether the American government is staffed by pedophiles? Then have that conversation, in a different thread. I’m going to start kicking people out otherwise.

OK, sorry. Won’t happen again.
 
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terrydactyl

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Trump said they're offering amnesty to the IRGC to surrender and that many have.

That probably means they will bunker down and see if US troops hit the ground.

If not, they can keep their power and money going since they controlled large parts of the economy.
They can't keep their story straight minute to minute. They claim we're not invading. So amnesty from what or who?
 

cfenton

Ars Scholae Palatinae
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At best this means they intend to install a puppet government that will hand over the oil. But the article really gives the impression that they don't even have an end goal in mind. It's like they found a slightly less flimsy pretext to bomb brown people so they're gonna bomb brown people because it makes them feel tough.

Four U.S. dead so far.
Only four U.S. soldiers dead is part of the problem. If there were even 10-1 losses in favor of the U.S. they might think twice about these operations. When there are basically zero domestic consequences it really skews the cost-benefit analysis. It also doesn't help that the leadership gets to make decisions with no personal stakes. If there was even a 1% chance Trump could wind up on the wrong end of a missile strike, I guarantee he'd never authorize the attack.
 

Sajuuk

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Only four U.S. soldiers dead is part of the problem. If there were even 10-1 losses in favor of the U.S. they might think twice about these operations. When there are basically zero domestic consequences it really skews the cost-benefit analysis. It also doesn't help that the leadership gets to make decisions with no personal stakes. If there was even a 1% chance Trump could wind up on the wrong end of a missile strike, I guarantee he'd never authorize the attack.
Which will only incentivize further use of the American military like this in the future. Annoy Trump and his friends enough? Well, here’s a carrier battle group turning your entire society into soup and stone with absolutely zero concerns beyond destruction and propaganda.

There are going to be a whole lot of Alderaans in the future.
 

concernUrsus

Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
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Which will only incentivize further use of the American military like this in the future. Annoy Trump and his friends enough? Well, here’s a carrier battle group turning your entire society into soup and rubble with absolutely zero concerns beyond destruction and propaganda.

The Death Star wills itself to use.

In a lot of ways, War with Venezuela is a success in their minds. Even though I still do not see any meaningful positive outcome. I think Trump is sort of controlling Venezuela oil under the table now?
 

Sajuuk

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In a lot of ways, War with Venezuela is a success in their minds. Even though I still do not see any meaningful positive outcome. I think Trump is sort of controlling Venezuela oil under the table now?
Well, of course it’s a success for them. We bullied some tinpot “Socialist” dictatorship into being a literal vassal state, and our media was once again given the opportunity to roll their eyes into the back of their heads and undulate while ample footage of American power being applied directly to brown people was played on a loop.
 

Thank You and Best of Luck!

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It also doesn't help that the leadership gets to make decisions with no personal stakes. If there was even a 1% chance Trump could wind up on the wrong end of a missile strike, I guarantee he'd never authorize the attack.
Given this DoD, I think the odds are greater than 1% that they accidentally drone strike themselves.
 

Gary Patterson

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Not necessarily the case.
In this particular instance, it may have simply been outdated intelligence.

According to local intelligence sources, up until 2016 there was no school there, the building was part of the adjacent IRGC naval base.
The school may have been a general-purpose elementary school, but given the small student population (<200) in a town of >70K, more likely a school for IRGC families only, which is how it ended up with the base's real-estate.
That’s actually worse. That would mean that the US fired missiles into a civilian population but couldn’t be bothered to check if their targets were still valid.

And it’s ludicrous to excuse the US - the most powerful military the planet has ever seen with the most advanced intelligence gathering apparatus - for not having up to date intel on their targets. I don’t believe that for a second.

Either it was deliberate or it was neglect. Both are choices made. Neither excuses the slaughter of children.
 

Lt_Storm

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Who are we? Are you libyan? Because libyans killed Gaddafi.
How short or memory of history is, that we have already forgotten our military intervention in Libya. If turns out that NATO was neck deep in that mess and his death was a direct consequence of that intervention. Of course, that hasn't worked out well for the Libyans.

Many Russians miss the Soviet state, many East Germans miss the DDR (or GDR as American say), people dont like change, people dont like the insecurity that change brings and they REALLY dont like chaos that upends their lives and its all well and good to say "Oh, but they are free!" but freedom is expensive and without safeguards easily becomes something very different and threathening.
I'm not sure that I would argue a society dominated by random warlords is "free". Nor would I consider a country suffering from a nearly decade long civil war to be particularly "free". Again, not a positive outcome for anyone really.
 
This need to defend the US and blame Iran for the school thing when we are actively bombing them in an unprovoked act of aggression is weird.

There's something else that's weird, and perhaps a bit funny and sad.
Automatically doubting or completely dismissing the initial non-Iranian reports of signs suggesting Khamenei has been killed, contrasted with taking at face value the Iranian reports of the school incident, and without any reservations.

It's not about "defending the US and blaming Iran", but rather to pause a moment and wait for more complete and reliable info before starting the blame game.
 

Paladin

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Looks like we lost F-16s due to failure to set up the IFF interrogator configuration/notification to Kuwait so they showed up on radar as primary targets without IFF and were confused for drones. Hegsbeth dropped the ball.
I immediately assumed it was that. I'm sure they are currently 'investigating' to find some other way to phrase it or someone to blame but... it kind of has to be that. Or just massive incompetence on the part of both the people running the ground defenses and the pilots... so... probably the first thing.
 
In a lot of ways, War with Venezuela is a success in their minds. Even though I still do not see any meaningful positive outcome. I think Trump is sort of controlling Venezuela oil under the table now?
DJT has $500 million dollars in an account in Qatar, and it didn't cost him a penny.