War with...Iran?

Gary Patterson

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There's something else that's weird, and perhaps a bit funny and sad.
Automatically doubting or completely dismissing the initial non-Iranian reports of signs suggesting Khamenei has been killed, contrasted with taking at face value the Iranian reports of the school incident, and without any reservations.
It could be a tragic accident, or it could be the US being evil. Until this regime, I'd have initially assumed it was an Iranian missile gone wrong. With the Trump regime though, this fits the pattern established over the last year. It's entirely believable. The US has zero benefit of the doubt these days. after war crimes off the coast of Venezuela, Maduro, tariffs and basically trashing every international relationship it had.

I'll hold out a little hope that it's an accident caused by Iranians returning fire, but I feel it's more likely the callous US war machine.
 

Crolis

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There's something else that's weird, and perhaps a bit funny and sad.
Automatically doubting or completely dismissing the initial non-Iranian reports of signs suggesting Khamenei has been killed, contrasted with taking at face value the Iranian reports of the school incident, and without any reservations.

It's not about "defending the US and blaming Iran", but rather to pause a moment and wait for more complete and reliable info before starting the blame game.

What you seem to fail to understand is that it doesn't fucking matter whether the US hit the school on purpose, by mistake, whether the Israelis hit the school on purpose or mistake, whether the Iranian's fired a missile that went awry. The blame for every single death in this war is on the aggressors of the US and Israel. This shit is what happens in war and the blood is on our hands.
 

wco81

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They can't keep their story straight minute to minute. They claim we're not invading. So amnesty from what or who?

Trump just bullshitting.

He's hoping the regime doesn't reconstitute, like they're going to trust him when they've held a privileged position under the Iranian regime for decades.
 

Gary Patterson

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Trump just bullshitting.

He's hoping the regime doesn't reconstitute, like they're going to trust him when they've held a privileged position under the Iranian regime for decades.
They cannot trust him. They gave him everything he wanted in the recent negotiations in Geneva but he still started a war.

He does not act in good faith and his word means nothing.
 

Macam

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  1. Looks like we lost F-16s due to failure to set up the IFF interrogator configuration/notification to Kuwait so they showed up on radar as primary targets without IFF and were confused for drones. Hegsbeth dropped the ball.​

DoD's Classified ChatGPT: "You are absolutely right, and I apologize for the confusion!
  • ❌ You lost F-16s due to failure to set up the IFF interrogator configuration/notification.

Here is the correct information:
  • ✅ Enable the IFF interrogator configuration/notification.
Would you like me to show an example of how to do so? I can also show how to do so via Signal and include suggested journalist contacts to verify everything is working correctly.
 

Anacher

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Fucking hell. Rubio talking about how we had to strike Iran first because Israel was going to strike them, and then Iran would attack US bases.

“The imminent threat was that we knew if Iran was attacked, and we believed they would be attacked, that they would immediately come after us. And we were not going to sit there and absorb a blow before we responded," Rubio told reporters on Capitol Hill, where he was briefing lawmakers.

We know this is of course bullshit (or it's not, which I don't know if it's better), but the number of US aircraft in the region hadn't been as high as is now since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. They've been building up for a strike for awhile.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...live-updates/#link-M5JAWJEFPFAFXC73Y2535MXQMI

And then we have a Trump press conference where he decides to talk about curtains.

Edit: (added a link to thehill if the Wapost link doesn't work)

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5763685-rubio-defense-iran-threat/
 

Alexander

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"We didn't start the war," says aggressor who literally started the war.

Rubio gave their rationale: Israel was 100% going to attack Iran and the US knew that their Middle East military assets would be targeted in the retaliation, so it was safer to join and participate the attack.

I'm not agreeing with them, I'm laying out their justification.



"we knew that if Iran was attacked ... they would immediately come after us and we were not going to sit there and absorb a blow."

View: https://x.com/Acyn/status/2028574121483993523
 

Macam

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Trump said they're offering amnesty to the IRGC to surrender and that many have.

That probably means they will bunker down and see if US troops hit the ground.

If not, they can keep their power and money going since they controlled large parts of the economy.

Anything following "Trump said..." should not be taken at face value and cannot be trusted. In the same way that he pretends to engage in negotiations and then just precedes to bomb a country because he feels like it violates his own trade deals that he "negotiated". No one in the IRGC would have any real incentive to surrender because they'll just be blown up the second they identify themselves.

And lest you think there's no plan, well:

Before the attacks, the administration had identified possible leaders of a post-Khamenei Iran, but Trump said they are all gone. Khamenei was killed on Saturday alongside around 40 senior Iranian officials, the Israel Defense Forces said.

"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump said. "It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."

(There's no plan)
 

Wheels Of Confusion

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Anything following "Trump said..." should not be taken at face value and cannot be trusted. In the same way that he pretends to engage in negotiations and then just precedes to bomb a country because he feels like it violates his own trade deals that he "negotiated". No one in the IRGC would have any real incentive to surrender because they'll just be blown up the second they identify themselves.

And lest you think there's no plan, well:

Before the attacks, the administration had identified possible leaders of a post-Khamenei Iran, but Trump said they are all gone. Khamenei was killed on Saturday alongside around 40 senior Iranian officials, the Israel Defense Forces said.

"The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates," Trump said. "It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead."

(There's no plan)
But sure, it's not regime change!
 

Carhole

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And has that antipersonnel warfare won the Ukraine war for either side yet?

Bombing Ukraine has hardened its resistance against Russia. As always happens, especially when civilian collateral casualties occur.
First, let’s get clear that you continue to quote me out of context. Let me make this perfectly understandable for you and anyone else who wants to confuse quoting me out of context or making assumptions about my political views on this matter (our forum’s loss of nested quotes can be confusing to lazy readers, true) again:

You are quoting a conversation about conditions necessary for a nation-state to fail.
Regarding your ignorance of wars of attrition, let’s start with a basic definition and background so that you know what you are witnessing in Ukraine and can maybe write with substance instead of predicable red herrings: Attrition Warfare (wikipedia)
Now let’s expand on your false equivalency between the Russo-Ukrainian war, which is an existential war for all of Ukrainian sovereignty, as Russia has made it plainly clear that it intends to subsume the entire state and population of Ukraine and the current war beinwaged against the Khomeini Regime.

This US-Israeli war is targeting the Khomeini Regime (and by extension the IRGC) within Iran with the hope that a regime change will be effected. The remnants of the Khomeini Regime will and have already begun to propagandize about how this campaign is an existential threat to Iran, which could very well come to pass based on just how deeply the state fails. Some analysts in Jerusalem seem to believe so

The current conflict with Iran will only become more severe as the Islamic regime now understands that it is in an “existential war” threatening its continued rule, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute of Strategy and Security and former head of IDF military intelligence research, told The Jerusalem Post on Saturday.
…emphasis mine as at least the obvious is true for the Khomeini theocracy’s ability to lead has already been severely disrupted via ongoing assassinations, removal of Iran’s force projection (Navy, ballistic missiles launchers and caches, and to a lesser extent the propaganda which is reaching deeply into YouTube amongst other social media outlets despite the country being severed from the web for days now.
And yet, in spite of the repeated failures, there's always some military analysis indicating that the future of war will be entirely airborne and there is no further need for a conventional army to have engagements. The reality is that this particular engagement shows few of the demonstrated benefits of drone use in Ukraine and every echo of those earlier claims
I’d hate to see these particular dogs unleashed by the US but stand by my prediction that they will be used, particularly enforced by Hegseth’s commentary on being “politically correct”, and based on what I’ve learned from partially declassified systems that were trialed in Ukraine, to US recon drone systems, and to just how brutally effective improvised drone warfare has proven to be in Ukraine’s highly asymmetric defense of its territory.

My take is that Hegseth is saying that the US is going to murder the fuck out of as many ‘identified military age males’ as is possible during the presidential grace period for waging war, along with every other military asset within the country’s borders, and as identified elsewhere.
 
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Macam

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...excuse me?



Link

These guys are terrible at selling this. The reality is going to be a hard sell when you've got 6 Americans dead and 150 girls (at least) dead because you decided to bomb them for shits and giggles:

HCbcVB8WIAADqxR.jpeg




Link

Just total chaos piled on total chaos piled on total chaos.
 

cfenton

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Rubio gave their rationale: Israel was 100% going to attack Iran and the US knew that their Middle East military assets would be targeted in the retaliation, so it was safer to join and participate the attack.

I'm not agreeing with them, I'm laying out their justification.



"we knew that if Iran was attacked ... they would immediately come after us and we were not going to sit there and absorb a blow."

View: https://x.com/Acyn/status/2028574121483993523

Their justification is nonsense. If you don't want to be the aggressor then you have to wait to be attacked and then respond. You can't just say they would have attacked us, trust me bro.
 

QtDevSvr

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Their justification is nonsense. If you don't want to be the aggressor then you have to wait to be attacked and then respond. You can't just say they would have attacked us, trust me bro.
That's just the non-sense. The sense, which is worse, is that Trump has ceded US sovereignty to Israel.
 

terrydactyl

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Rubio gave their rationale: Israel was 100% going to attack Iran and the US knew that their Middle East military assets would be targeted in the retaliation, so it was safer to join and participate the attack.

I'm not agreeing with them, I'm laying out their justification.



"we knew that if Iran was attacked ... they would immediately come after us and we were not going to sit there and absorb a blow."

View: https://x.com/Acyn/status/2028574121483993523

Like climate change deniers and flat Earther, sociopaths will find an explanation for anything. Logical is a different matter.
 
With the Trump regime though, this fits the pattern established over the last year. It's entirely believable.
...
I'll hold out a little hope that it's an accident caused by Iranians returning fire, but I feel it's more likely the callous US war machine.
Also in the "evil US regime" crowd mistaken strikes would be considered bad. Something to work hard to avoid. If nothing else, for cold reasons like optics, press, international considerations.

it doesn't fucking matter ... The blame for every single death in this war is on the aggressors of the US and Israel.
Maybe to you it doesn't, but it does matter.
Even the basics haven't been established, like the number of dead (if any), but you're already convinced it's all true.
This mindset of loathing the "internal enemy" more than external ones makes people so receptive of propaganda, as long as it reaffirms their opinion of Trump/whoever. Trump is a bit unhinged but not everything he does is bad or malicious. Sometimes good can come from wrong reasons, too.
 

Crolis

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Even the basics haven't been established, like the number of dead (if any), but you're already convinced it's all true.

Facts not in evidence. I have not spoken a single time about what I think the facts are in this situation.
This mindset of loathing the "internal enemy" more than external ones makes people so receptive of propaganda
lol, someone is certainly receptive to propaganda.
Trump is a bit unhinged but not everything he does is bad or malicious. Sometimes good can come from wrong reasons, too.
Not even sure what this means.
 
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Carhole

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...excuse me?



Link

These guys are terrible at selling this. The reality is going to be a hard sell when you've got 6 Americans dead and 150 girls (at least) dead because you decided to bomb them for shits and giggles:

View attachment 129488



Link

Just total chaos piled on total chaos piled on total chaos.

Oh wow, that FOX news entry may have outdone themselves with their misinformation campaigns.
Also in the "evil US regime" crowd mistaken strikes would be considered bad. Something to work hard to avoid. If nothing else, for cold reasons like optics, press, international considerations.


Maybe to you it doesn't, but it does matter.
Even the basics haven't been established, like the number of dead (if any), but you're already convinced it's all true.
This mindset of loathing the "internal enemy" more than external ones makes people so receptive of propaganda, as long as it reaffirms their opinion of Trump/whoever. Trump is a bit unhinged but not everything he does is bad or malicious. Sometimes good can come from wrong reasons, too.
We’ve likely just begun to learn about the civilian death toll as there will be both more legitimate targets in civilian areas and Israel is going to naturally continue its indiscriminate carpet bombing if they even smell a suspicion of a military target in the vague vicinity.

Re: the second portion of your post, two wrongs can and are coexisting. Trump’s useful (ImO) addition to the world has been to label the drug cartels as terrorist organizations and well, seems great on paper u til you see Mexico is currently falling into what could be a protracted civil war.

Let’s see, oh, a ballroom added to the white house maybe …some day? That’s good for the US and the world.

Step back and look at what the man’s actions. Perhaps you’ll find that there is substance to recognizing fault where it lies. And lies, and lies.
 
This is completely insane. I realize most of the international order is dead letters at this point, but I wonder when the US will start getting formally kicked out of things. Will there be a G6 summit during Trump's presidency that the US isn't invited to?
I get the feeling that would go over about as well as Japan leaving the League of Nations with zero consequences. And, I mean, the US faces no consequences as-is so there is effectively no difference, but it would make it crystal clear to everyone else that the current alliances are meaningless and there is no real way to hold any nation accountable for its crimes (which was of course a major milestone on the road to the second world war, authoritiarian regimes realizing they were pretty much free to do whatever they wanted because the 'rules-based global order' was too weak at first to do anything but offer toothless protest).
 
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dave99

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Alexander

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Travel advisory for US citizens to immediately leave the Middle East:

The latest advisory applies to Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the occupied West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
In a statement posted on X, Mora Namdar, the State Department’s assistant secretary for consular affairs, said US citizens should “DEPART NOW” from the countries listed using available commercial transportation “due to serious safety risks”.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026...tely-leave-over-a-dozen-middle-east-countries
 
Travel advisory for US citizens to immediately leave the Middle East:

The latest advisory applies to Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the occupied West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
In a statement posted on X, Mora Namdar, the State Department’s assistant secretary for consular affairs, said US citizens should “DEPART NOW” from the countries listed using available commercial transportation “due to serious safety risks”.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026...tely-leave-over-a-dozen-middle-east-countries
But why? Easy peasy, quick adventure, right Rick Sanchez?

I'm curious what the FAFO phase of this operation unravels into.
 
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CPX

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Kurdish state in the cards?

Any Iranian Kurd leader believing this administration after the Syrian Kurds were betrayed not once but twice will be lucky to survive their own people after the Turkish military gets done bombing what the Israelis and US miss.
 
Travel advisory for US citizens to immediately leave the Middle East:

The latest advisory applies to Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the occupied West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
In a statement posted on X, Mora Namdar, the State Department’s assistant secretary for consular affairs, said US citizens should “DEPART NOW” from the countries listed using available commercial transportation “due to serious safety risks”.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026...tely-leave-over-a-dozen-middle-east-countries
For context: "the occupied West Bank and Gaza" is Al Jazeera's phrasing, not what was posted by the state department official. Would have been surprising and noteworthy otherwise..
 

Shavano

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Not necessarily the case.
In this particular instance, it may have simply been outdated intelligence.

According to local intelligence sources, up until 2016 there was no school there, the building was part of the adjacent IRGC naval base.
The school may have been a general-purpose elementary school, but given the small student population (<200) in a town of >70K, more likely a school for IRGC families only, which is how it ended up with the base's real-estate.
Let me check my calendar again. So the school has been there for ALMOST 10 YEARS? So maybe not Targeting incompetence? Maybe it was only Intel incompetence???

Well that's OK then?

Hegseth says Iran won’t be a ‘politically correct’ war as he lays out US objectives: ‘No democracy-building exercise’

The future of American foreign policy is here, and it’s just hyper gunboat diplomacy all the way down.
translation: Hegseth doesn't have any plan for what happens after they stop bombing, or no plan that Americans would support.
Looks like we lost F-16s due to failure to set up the IFF interrogator configuration/notification to Kuwait so they showed up on radar as primary targets without IFF and were confused for drones. Hegsbeth dropped the ball.
I think you mean F-15E's. Possibly not because of that. There were a ton of mixed US and Iranian targets over Kuwait, so this might just be the consequence of Kuwaiti targeting systems being overwhelmed, or jamming of IFF systems by Iranians. Anyway you count it, Iranians are just as happy about getting Kuwait to shoot down US planes as if they had done it with their own weapons. I doubt it was unanticipated or unintended on the Iranians part.
Only four U.S. soldiers dead is part of the problem. If there were even 10-1 losses in favor of the U.S. they might think twice about these operations. When there are basically zero domestic consequences it really skews the cost-benefit analysis. It also doesn't help that the leadership gets to make decisions with no personal stakes. If there was even a 1% chance Trump could wind up on the wrong end of a missile strike, I guarantee he'd never authorize the attack.
It does. But you can't disguise the fact that the US is spending enormous money on this operation and committing a large percentage of total forces. Adversaries are watching closely and evaluating how much the US voluntarily expends its fighting force for a goal of no immediate value to the US.
There's something else that's weird, and perhaps a bit funny and sad.
Automatically doubting or completely dismissing the initial non-Iranian reports of signs suggesting Khamenei has been killed, contrasted with taking at face value the Iranian reports of the school incident, and without any reservations.

It's not about "defending the US and blaming Iran", but rather to pause a moment and wait for more complete and reliable info before starting the blame game.
Iranians were the only ones who could be certain that Khamanei was killed. There was no other way to confirm it. They also have direct access to the best information about what happened with the school bombing, because they control the situation on the ground.

Do we expect them to always tell the truth, and not conceal information that's to their disadvantage? Of course not. It's a war. I don't automatically trust what the US military says for the same reason.

Even in better times than these, when the US military was run by people whose first impulse wasn't to lie about everything, they were known for concealing information that would make them look bad.
 

Shavano

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Rubio gave their rationale: Israel was 100% going to attack Iran and the US knew that their Middle East military assets would be targeted in the retaliation, so it was safer to join and participate the attack.

I'm not agreeing with them, I'm laying out their justification.
Either it's complete bullshit or it's an admission that Israel is running the Trump administration's foreign policy and military strategy.

You'd think they'd at least be competent enough to not admit it.

edit: Someone remind America that Republicans are the party that's better on foreign policy. /s
 

Gary Patterson

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Link

Cαn'т ιмαgιиε ωнεяε нε gσт тнιѕ ℓιиε ƒяσм. You see, друг, it is not war, it is special operation.

Dropping bombs on a sovereign country and specifically targeting all the leadership is an act of war. The US can't pretend this isn't a war unless their pretence is around a legal war, which clearly this is not. It's an illegal war started by the US, violating its own laws - Reagan signed an EO in '81 outlawing assassination of foreign leaders, so if this isn't an illegal war, it's an illegal assassination.

Meanwhile, the U.S. death toll has increased to six. What do we tell their families those soldiers died for?
Either Israel or Epstein, or perhaps both. That's what the US is spending lives for. There was no credible threat, Iran was willing to agree to just about anything but the US wanted this war more than getting the outcome it claims to want. So the true reason must be something else. The frontrunners are Israel, with Netanyahu celebrating his 30th year of claiming Iran is about a week from building nuclear bombs, and Epstein, for obvious reasons.