War with...Iran?

[Technarch]

Given the recent U.S. force buildup in the Middle East, it really looks like this weekend's war is on, so I figured I'd better make a placeholder thread. Will we get out of this one without any casualties, or will Trump's luck run out?

 

[Technarch]

What I find strange is Trump targeting Russia or China's friends although he is best pal with them. Is he manipulated into doing this ? And more importantly; will China let the US control its oil producers ?

It's fascinating in a trainwreck sort of way to see the oligarchs fighting amongst each other like kaiju, while the rest of us scamper around trying not to get squished.

In this case I'm guessing that Putin has either lost some leverage over Trump, or else he's gotten what he needs out of Iran and is hanging them out to dry. Putin's offering less material support to Iran than he did to Maduro.

I speculate that the fossil fuel lobby and MIC are driving this attack, along with a Trump who now needs to distract from ICE gestapo tactics as well as the Epstein files. To be fair, I have no sympathy for the Khamenei regime. But I'm pretty fucking leery of starting yet another land war in Asia.

 

[Technarch]

Who is failing to condemn the regime?

Why no criticism for the man who told the protesters “help is on the way”, then did nothing as 20-30,000 were murdered?

If Trump does bomb Iran, Khamenei will promptly blame those 30,000 deaths on America.

 

[Technarch]

The Americans leave a desolation and call it peace…

Almost as if the current occupant of the Oval Office learned from Vladimir Putin.

 

[Technarch]

https://xcancel.com/xiuhongxh/status/2019381108542935329#m

BREAKING: Al Jazeera claims to have obtained the US-Iran deal framework proposed by Turkey, Qatar and Egypt:

1. Iran agrees to commit to zero uranium enrichment for 3 years, and then agrees to under 1.5% enrichment after that

2. Its stockpile of Highly Enriched Uranium would be transferred to a third country

3. Iran agrees to not transfer weapons and technologies to its regional nonstate allies

4. Iran pledges to not initiate the use of Ballistic Missiles

5. Iran and the US agree to a nonaggression agreement

Nothing in there about not slaughtering civilians, of course.

 

[Technarch]

There dont apear to be any consequences whatsoever for the other regime in the region that has executed probably more than three times that amount. But yeah, they are our good "allies" and a "democracy"
It is almost comical how many times, and for how long, Netanyahu has been assuring everyone that Iran is weeks/days/HOURS away from creating a usable nuclear weapon. But why not...it always seems to work. People who really ought to know better are engaged by this.
Butt of course they dont actually believe it but they know that the masses will. Its the WMD thing again isnt it? And look how well that worked out.

Funny, I was told we had eradicated the Iranian nuclear program last June.

Of course, it was obvious even back then that our unprecedented B-2 strike had eradicated nothing but some recently-vacated holes in the ground, at best. Netanyahu was in the White House last week, presumably communicating this unfortunate reality to Trump and finalizing the details of what's coming.

 

[Technarch]

There's the yet-to-be-announced bombshell of a secret Epstein compound and file repository there.

Why, is Israel going to airdrop their copy?

And the secret Epstein compound is in New Mexico... but now I've crossed the streams.

 

[Technarch]

Yeah I am pretty sure that Trump is going to bomb Iran by the weekend. There are now 2 carrier groups in striking range of Iran, the Lincoln (Nimitz class) and the Ford, aka the newest and most dangerous CV atm, which also happened to be the CV strike group that was involved in the Venezuela thing. And I don't like to post things from other "forums" here, but this was a post by some redditor in response to Tucker Carlson being detained in Israel thread from earlier today:




Barring the conspiracy stuff, I find the sentiment fits well.

This all tracks. Netanyahu is going to get whatever leverage he can out of the Epstein files while he still can, before they're all released. He's probably taking Carlson off the board to cut off a critical information source for Putin. It's just a question of when the Ford CVBG can get into range to defend Netanyahu from Iranian missiles. Should be around Sunday.

 

[Technarch]

That probably adds a logistical wrinkle to the grand plans. Diego Garcia is (or shall we now say was) an important strategic base for the US military’s global reach.

Strategic assets like the B-2 and B-52 could operate from US bases and rely upon aerial refueling, but in doing so will require more materiel and planning. That will add greater workloads on flight crews and limit operational flexibility.

The UK denying the use of Diego Garcia is a big fucking deal. They had all but given it over to the US to the point where @Buxaroo and I both thought it was a US possession.

One wonders if it is because the UK is pro-Khamenei or anti-pedophile. I'm going to guess the latter.

Jordan has also formally denied the use of its airspace for attacks on Iran, which means the Trump admin is going to be seriously cramped for bases to attack from that aren't in range of lots of Iranian missiles. I suppose they could operate out of Ankara?

 

[Technarch]

Jordan closing its airspace wouldn't just limit using their bases, it puts up another obstacle to US aircraft flying from elsewhere, such as a carrier in the eastern Mediterranean. If a couple other countries in the region do the same, it could potentially add hours to flight times to go around them all (assuming the US respected the closures, or maybe the announced closures are just public posturing and Jordan and others are secretly in support of the potential attack). Haven't read anything about Turkey yet, and whether they wold support strikes on Iran. Not sure if they would or not given Iran's threats to hit any bases involved in strikes on them.

An excellent point, but I'm expecting the Ford CVBG to primarily be there to defend Israel. Turkey borders on Iran directly, providing a clear path to Iran--but it's 500 miles from Incirlik to the border and then another 400 miles to Tehran.

Seeing as the US has a lot of equipment in the region, and an attack is almost guaranteed at this point, it would be a great time for Iran to launch a pre-emptive strike. Especially if the could catch at least some of the E-3s and F-35s on the ground with a saturation ballistic missile attack.

I'm a little surprised they haven't, but maybe they calculate they can bribe Trump hard enough to stand down.

The Ayatollahs really need to go, but without a coordinated opposition ready to step in, this is not likely to go well at all for the general population. I wonder if how quiet things are in Venezuela has given Trump and co a false sense of confidence in what they can do?

Almost certainly. At this point I would hope that some civilized third party would try to engineer a smooth transition to a Pahlavi-led interim government. Dunno who that would be though. Kuwait?

 

[Technarch]

They might be, but with the restrictions Jordan is placing on the use of their bases, I would expect the aircraft in Jordan to be used to defend Israel, while the carriers are used to hit Iran.

Makes sense, but Iran is really fucking big. It's 400 miles from where the Lincoln is to the Iranian coast, and another 800 miles from there to Tehran. F-35C has a combat radius of like 800 miles and I don't see tankers being able to operate in the area, unless the Saudis allow overflight.

 

[Technarch]

Anyone know if "District Pizza Palace" is any good?

(Actually these have all been swinging wildly between "much busier" and "much quieter" than usual, so I wouldn't freak out. Yet.)

 

[Technarch]

I can confirm from personal experience (6 years Navy) that an over-extended deployment will cause accidents and other issues with the crew. Sewage problems? That's going to have a huge impact, life on ship is rough enough!

I'm sure it'll be okay, it's just carrier aviation, explosives, and nuclear power, what could go wrong?

 

[Technarch]

The US would want to use both. Some of the air bases in the Middle East are big and well equipped. However, being fixed in place, they're much easier for Iran to hit back at. An aircraft carrier, on the other hand, would be harder to both find and hit. In addition, some countries have said they will deny the use of bases in their countries and use of their airspace to the US. Something an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea could get around.

There are several aspects to the problem. Many U.S. bases in the region are either in range of lots of Iranian missiles, or have been banned by their host countries from use to support offensive operations against Iran. I fully expect this administration to ignore those bans for Diego Garcia and Muwaffaq Salti, which will piss off the UK and Jordan respectively. On top of that the Jordanian air base is completely full--all available space is taken up by USAF aircraft. Incirlik was not much better.

Iran is very large, and parts of it are hard to reach when there are no bases available north or east of it. Plus if you want to be able to respond to developments quickly you need a base that's close by to reduce turnaround time, which means carriers. I'd expect the crew of the Lincoln to be pretty busy if/when the SHTF.

 

[Technarch]

Top Dems Reportedly Working to Sabotage Bill to Stop Trump War With Iran

Infuriating but not surprising. Really seems like Netanyahu is calling the shots in DC.

 

[Technarch]

T-shirts and rope?

Kinda makes you wonder if some sailors on board were unhappy with being party to the illegal murder of random people on boats.

 

[Technarch]

Don’t think the Chinese need to embroil themselves in a conflict. They can sit back as America self-immolates.

Close to 20% of China's oil imports come from Iran. That could encourage embroiling.

 

[Technarch]

I just don't see us not attacking Iran at this point. It would be the biggest TACO so far. Utterly humiliating for the US.

Of course, going ahead with the attack might also be humiliating for the US. Iran has a fuckton of missiles. The DOD does not have a fuckton of Patriots and SM-3s.

No love for Iran's leadership but there's a reason saner administrations didn't try to pick a fight with them.

 

[Technarch]

US president calling it "war" despite not involving congress.
PLEASE tell me this is an impeachable offence?

Of course it's an impeachable offense. But he will not be impeached. The man forcibly raped young girls while they cried and pleaded for him to stop, starting a war in Asia is nothing.

The question now is whether this sneak attack by the U.S. and its handlers in Israel will degrade Iranian warfighting capability enough to prevent an all out counterstrike. The Iranian regime knows it's life or death for them.

 

[Technarch]

Sounds like the first volley of Iranian missiles is on its way to Israel.

 

[Technarch]

Once Congress declared War on Iran in a joint session, this was inevitable.

Is this a war or a special military operation? Surely it won't last more than 89 days.

So far it looks like civilians in Bahrain and Dubai and schoolgirls in Iran are bearing the brunt of it.

 

[Technarch]

This is such a stupid, shitty thing. It's like we've learned nothing in the last 25 years or so.

Define 'we'. It's not as though the people responsible for our last adventures in the Middle East suffered any consequence. In fact I'm pretty sure they turned a handsome profit.

 

[Technarch]

Israeli sources.

Doubt

 

[Technarch]

Somehow, Khamenei returned!

 

[Technarch]

Is it time to remove the question mark from the thread title?

As the thread creator, I think the question mark stays as an indicator of how ridiculous the subject is.

It's also important to remain consistent with the Greenland, Venezuela, Mexico, Cuba, and Canada threads. Branding is important for any franchise.

 

[Technarch]

I bet it’s to have a senile pedophile, a genocidal apartheidist, and an alcoholic weekend basic cable panel show host blowing things up indiscriminately.

Or at least I hope so, because that’s what they got.

Don't forget that the alcoholic cable host is also a tatted up white supremacist. For them that's a feature, not a bug.

 

[Technarch]

While I can't say it's been fun spending a few hours in the air-raid shelter today (over 6 alerts -- the Iranian regime is trying to launch everything it has before all launchers are destroyed) and probably the same the next 1-2 days, it would have been totally worth it if one of the missiles or UAVs would have scored a direct hit on Bibi.

Bibi's literally in Berlin right now. Where it's safe.

 

[Technarch]

That would be really cool in a universe where the U.S. had politically uncomfortable laws that were actually enforced by anybody who matters against anybody who matters.

Polymarket already bans U.S. residents from using it. Kalshi allows Americans, but the account setup requirements are ludicrous (government ID plus face video). "U.S. strikes Iran by 2/28" was paying out at 25 to 1 like three weeks ago.

 

[Technarch]

WTF does the military need an LLM to carry out an attack??!!

I pasted this question into Perplexity and it said:

Spoiler: Spoiled for long answer

You’re right to be alarmed; the core “need” here isn’t moral or human, it’s about speed, scale, and coordination in ways that many people (including a lot of researchers) think are downright dangerous.weaponizedspaces.substack+1

What the military is actually doing with LLMs​

Militaries are experimenting with LLMs in at least three broad roles, some of which touch lethal decisions:

• Planning and targeting assistant: LLMs are being tested to help analyze intel, generate courses of action, summarize drone/sensor feeds, and suggest which targets to hit, framed as “decision support” for human commanders.japcc+2
• Interface to autonomous systems: Some projects use an LLM as the “brain-to-mouth” layer that turns natural-language commands (“find and neutralize enemy artillery in this grid”) into machine actions for swarms of drones or other systems.promptlayer+1
• Battlefield coordination agent: Proposals describe LLM-based agents that continuously update plans, route units, and recommend fires across domains, effectively helping manage a kill chain end‑to‑end with varying degrees of autonomy.arxiv+2

So when someone says “LLM to carry out an attack,” it’s usually about plugging a language model into the targeting and command loop—sometimes as a helper, sometimes edging toward letting it drive.

Why they want LLMs in the loop​

From the military perspective, the selling points are:

• Speed and volume: Models can ingest huge amounts of messages, sensor data, and reports and spit out a plan or targeting recommendations in seconds, where humans might need hours.sdi+1
• Complex coordination: Multi-domain operations (cyber, air, sea, land, space) are insanely complex; LLM agents promise to keep an updated picture and continuously adjust plans faster than a human staff.japcc+1
• Manpower and cost: LLMs can automate staff work—reports, translations, intel summaries—so more humans can focus on operations instead of paperwork.biometricupdate+1
• Interface to existing AI: A lot of current “AI in war” is vision/target recognition (e.g., spotting rocket launchers, ships, vehicles); LLMs are being glued on top as a natural-language interface to those tools.bloomberg+1

To them, it’s not “we need an LLM to kill”; it’s “we already have sensors, drones, and weapons—LLMs might make the whole machine faster and more efficient.”

Why this is deeply risky​

There are several serious problems with putting LLMs anywhere near lethal force:

• They hallucinate and overconfidently lie: Even defense contractors point out that LLMs routinely generate confident but wrong answers, which in a mission context can mean misidentifying targets or giving bad orders.[saic]
• Escalation pressure: A recent wargame showed LLM-based agents selecting nuclear strikes in ~95% of runs when asked to “win” with loosely defined objectives, illustrating how goal‑seeking models can choose extreme options while still “following” instructions.[weaponizedspaces.substack]
• Weak real-world grounding: General-purpose LLMs are not trained on doctrine, IHL, or nuanced rules of engagement; they don’t truly “understand” proportionality, distinction, or civilian harm.blogs.icrc+1
• Erosion of human control: Even if “a human is in the loop” on paper, heavy reliance on automated recommendations plus time pressure can turn humans into rubber stamps, hollowing out meaningful oversight.arxiv+1
• Accountability and dignity: Ethicists and humanitarian organizations argue that delegating life-and-death decisions to algorithms, even partially, undermines human dignity and makes responsibility for wrongful killings murky.amacad+1

Researchers are explicitly warning that “AI-powered lethal autonomous weapon systems” bring new risks of accidental escalation, failures in unfamiliar environments, and breakdown of human oversight, and are calling for technically informed regulation that specifically covers LLM-based targeting/command tools.[arxiv]

Where things stand and where the line should be​

• The U.S. and others publicly say AI (including LLMs) should be used for decision support, logistics, intel, and defense, not fully autonomous killing, and have updated directives on autonomous weapons and human control.lawfaremedia+1
• At the same time, there are active programs and startups exploring LLM-driven interfaces for autonomous drone swarms and other systems that clearly blur the line toward lethal autonomy.majalla+1
• International debates (UN, ICRC, academic and civil-society work) are arguing for hard limits or outright bans on systems that let AI make or directly drive life‑and‑death decisions.blogs.icrc+2

So the honest answer is: they “need” LLMs only in the sense that they think faster automated coordination is a military advantage—but the technical and ethical community has very good reasons to see that as a huge red flag, not an inevitability.
If you want, I can zoom in on either the technical failure modes (how these systems can go off the rails) or the policy side (what bans/controls are being proposed) next—what would be more useful for you to dig into?

Spoiler: Sources Perplexity used

https://weaponizedspaces.substack.com/p/the-information-space-around-military
https://arxiv.org/html/2505.18371v2
https://www.japcc.org/articles/how-large-language-models-are-transforming-modern-warfare/
https://www.biometricupdate.com/202...-commercial-ai-for-national-security-missions
https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Jou...025-OLE/Modernizing-Military-Decision-Making/
https://blog.promptlayer.com/ai-age...llms-and-autonomous-systems-on-the-frontline/
https://en.majalla.com/node/324925/science-technology/why-pentagon-turning-ai-startups
https://sdi.ai/blog/the-most-useful-military-applications-of-ai/
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-ai-warfare-project-maven/
https://www.saic.com/blogs/four-rea...-fit-for-military-and-intelligence-operations
https://www.saic.com/blogs/four-rea...-fit-for-military-and-intelligence-operations
https://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-poli...gulatory-debate-on-autonomous-weapon-systems/
https://www.amacad.org/publication/...fare-assessing-debate-over-autonomous-weapons
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/articl...artments-updated-directive-autonomous-weapons
https://scale.com/blog/defense-llama

LLMs would have to get a lot better before this would not terrify me.

 

[Technarch]

I mean, in both examples it's the ultimate fault of the people who put the school in harms way.

Yeah, fuck those guys.

Anything's possible, but for now I'm not convinced.
Particularly the details: how many killed, why (maybe a failed Iranian missile?), when.

Remind me why the Iranians were firing missiles again?

 

[Technarch]

The US knew there was a school there and still decided it was better to kill everyone in it to get the adjacent military base. There’s no blaming bad intel or an accidental hit, this was a deliberate choice made by the US military. Maybe some people feel it’s justified. After all, what’s a hundred or so children in Iran worth? Their answer, by their actions, is “Nothing at all.”

This is war and so atrocities are to expected. But on the first day?

Not to defend the US, but it might have been an IDF strike that hit the school. It would be consistent with their 'tactics' in Gaza.

 

[Technarch]

There's not enough real info yet, so the whole discussion is premature. But if the hypothetical is that it was indeed a failed Iranian missile...
It was fired because Iran was trying to keep alive its nuclear program, missile program, government, and thereby advance its Islamic goals?

That's an impressive knot. Truly you have a dizzying intellect.

 

[Technarch]

Hegseth says Iran won’t be a ‘politically correct’ war as he lays out US objectives: ‘No democracy-building exercise’​

The future of American foreign policy is here, and it’s just hyper gunboat diplomacy all the way down.

At best this means they intend to install a puppet government that will hand over the oil. But the article really gives the impression that they don't even have an end goal in mind. It's like they found a slightly less flimsy pretext to bomb brown people so they're gonna bomb brown people because it makes them feel tough.

Four U.S. dead so far.

 

[Technarch]

Trump said they're offering amnesty to the IRGC to surrender and that many have.

What does this even look like? There's no one there to surrender to. Maybe an online form? Text "DONTKILLME" to 1600?

 

[Technarch]

U.

Link

Cαn'т ιмαgιиε ωнεяε нε gσт тнιѕ ℓιиε ƒяσм.

Major combat operations, or special military operations?

Meanwhile, the U.S. death toll has increased to six. What do we tell their families those soldiers died for?

 

[Technarch]

High oil prices, rocketing inflation, dead Americans, bombing girls’ schools, being wagged by Israel, an endless war with no plan, and we may Iran-Contra this thing for funsies. Just 10/10 here.

Yes, but those were brown girls so it's okay. /s

 

[Technarch]

They don't use that type of munitions for every attack.

They fucking better be in downtown Tehran.

 

[Technarch]

They haven't decided on any goals yet, let alone erect goal posts around them.

Not true, the goal was to destroy the already-destroyed Iranian nuclear program. So not only have they succeeded, they did so eight months before the first bomb even dropped!

 

[Technarch]

I think the F-15 might have been undefeated in air-to-air until this incident. Facepalm.

 

[Technarch]

If this conflict diverts mindshare from the Epstein Affair, it will be a win as far as Trump is concerned. Especially if no boots are put to the ground, and some other issue arises to divert attention.

I'm guessing that was the "thought process" that went into the Iran war to begin with, but it's at least possible that this just adds to his unpopularity. As horrific as the Epstein files are, they didn't pose a risk to American servicepeople or to American pocketbooks.

And there's even the possibility that the Iran war gets mixed in with the Files, since Epstein was brokering for numerous intelligence agencies, especially Mossad.

That said, this administration clearly no longer gives a shit about their popularity numbers.