War with...Iran?

Gary Patterson

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And, if it were the United States, I would suspect that it is a mistake, after all, the US military has learned about how this kind of failing is actually a disaster a time or two. That said, with Trump in charge, I suppose it's possible that everyone who learned that lesson has found themselves out a job.
Is that the same military that cheerfully blows up fishermen off the coast of Venezuela? And kills any survivors? The military that doesn’t hesitate to follow an illegal order? I don’t imagine they’d even pause for a moment on realising they’d kill a bunch of school kids.

You’re probably right that anyone with a spine has been systematically removed from all positions of command. War crimes are par for Trump’s course.
 

Lt_Storm

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Is that the same military that cheerfully blows up fishermen off the coast of Venezuela? And kills any survivors? The military that doesn’t hesitate to follow an illegal order? I don’t imagine they’d even pause for a moment on realising they’d kill a bunch of school kids.

You’re probably right that anyone with a spine has been systematically removed from all positions of command. War crimes are par for Trump’s course.
I mean, if Trump had been so callous as to order that specific strike, I don't doubt that you would be right. Indeed, had he and his cabinet been picking the targets, I would expect many more such dubious targets to have been bombed. But, I doubt that Trump or his cabinet even knew that this school existed.

Basically, I'm inclined to think that if the traditional military types from the American military were picking the targets, they would be likely to go though some pains to avoid picking targets like that because such mistakes have caused them serious problems before and they seem to have learned that lesson fairly well. But, of course, it's reasonably likely that they have all been fired.

And then we have the IDF who recently haven't been developing a reputation for care in such matters.
 

9600man

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Spunjji

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No-one else is going to do it. So we should. The Soviet Union is gone, Russia is swirling the plug hole, the islamic world - however much it has been portrayed as the 'next big enemy' only needs to be properly bombed into submission from time to time.

"...only needs to be properly bombed into submission from time to time"

That sure is some bloodthirsty, bigoted bullshit.

To dig into it: I literally cannot imagine thinking that the correct and eternally ongoing course of action visa-vis an entire religion and its adherents, comprising a huge swathe of the world's occupants, is to give them a good bombing every once in a while so that they remember who's boss. I certainly can't imagine thinking I could say this with any kind of coherent moral framework backing it up, at least not one that wouldn't also justify them saying the exact same thing about me.

I guess I could imagine forming that opinion if I had precious little knowledge of what I'm talking about married to an unwarranted overconfidence?

Let's cast ancient history aside, where the Islamic world consistently and comfortably outdid the Christian "west" in terms of personal and religious freedoms. It's difficult to make relevant comparisons because most societies back then were based on principles we now consider grim. Well, some of us do, anyway.

Keeping this in topic, as recently as the early 1950s the actual elected government of Iran was successfully struggling against regressive, oppressive forces that sought to drag it back into the dark ages and reinstitute a repressive regime. I'm talking, of course, about the UK and US.

Unfortunately it's difficult to hold a progressive government together when more powerful outside forces are simultaneously starving you of revenue and fomenting factionalism within your borders, and when it fell, we helpfully installed exactly the kind of oppressive client regime colonial powers had been gleefully installing for centuries. Purges ensued and, well, it's hard to keep up a liberal intellectual movement when you could die for it.

Nonetheless, even by the time of the 1979 revolution, there was still a huge current of modern liberal reformism present. If only those aforementioned regressive, illiberal forces hadn't picked the winning side, maybe Iran wouldn't be such a nightmare realm for so many of its inhabitants today. But we intervened, we fucked around and then we've spent the ensuing decades since then and now sponsoring their enemies and crippling their economy, all the while building on this narrative that somehow Muslim-majoriry regions are incurably backwards and we just can't do anything about that other than stochastically murder their inhabitants.

Of course, I'm not being fair. You also said they could just stop being Muslim, as if that's the magical solution. But if that's true (and it's not, but whatever) the what is it that the US and UK and other once-great powers like Russia who also fucked around in the region have to stop being in order for us to be reasonable neighbours to other nations? What core part of our identities would you ascribe our long-proven and ongoing bloodthirsty interventionist tendencies to?

I'm out. It's fine to criticise religion, but you have to know what you're talking about. Calling for nation-state-sponsored terrorism against regimes associated with specific religions is not it, and is not worthy of further "debate".
 

Tijger

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Does everyone remember how Iran became an Islamic Republic? It wasnt forced on them, the Iranian people actually voted for it.

Many people in Iran seem to want a less draconian version of an Islamic State but I'm not so sure they want to toss it in the bin either. The problem is, of course, that accurately gauging that is nigh impossible.
 

Tijger

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Who are we? Are you libyan? Because libyans killed Gaddafi.

Many Russians miss the Soviet state, many East Germans miss the DDR (or GDR as American say), people dont like change, people dont like the insecurity that change brings and they REALLY dont like chaos that upends their lives and its all well and good to say "Oh, but they are free!" but freedom is expensive and without safeguards easily becomes something very different and threathening.
 

wobblytickle

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https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...after-objects-hit-uae-data-center-2026-03-01/

Perhaps slightly hyperbolic the Reuters piece but does seem that Iran are flinging stuff about with gay abandon. The official AWS communique is a bit more understated:

https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status

Mar 01 9:41 AM PST We want to provide some additional information on the power issue in a single Availability Zone in the ME-CENTRAL-1 Region. At around 4:30 AM PST, one of our Availability Zones (mec1-az2) was impacted by objects that struck the data center, creating sparks and fire. The fire department shut off power to the facility and generators as they worked to put out the fire. We are still awaiting permission to turn the power back on, and once we have, we will ensure we restore power and connectivity safely. It will take several hours to restore connectivity to the impacted AZ. The other AZs in the region are functioning normally. Customers who were running their applications redundantly across the AZs are not impacted by this event. EC2 Instance launches will continue to be impaired in the impacted AZ. We recommend that customers continue to retry any failed API requests. If immediate recovery of an affected resource (EC2 Instance, EBS Volume, RDS DB Instance, etc.) is required, we recommend restoring from your most recent backup, by launching replacement resources in one of the unaffected zones, or an alternate AWS Region. We will provide an update by 12:30 PM PST, or sooner if we have additional information to share.
 

Nvoid82

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I'm still entirely torn on how to feel feel about the US attacks on Iran. I can't help but feel it's going to turn into a quagmire and a fuster cluck in short order. Khamenei might be dead, but there's probably a line of equally terrible dudes lined up to take his very strict Islamist place. The IRGC will remain firmly in charge since they're the only ones with guns. The civilian population has little chance to actually effect a regime change and all the US seems intent on doing is aerial bombardment. Nothing that's so far been happening to me feels like it's going to achieve anything long term other than creating another terrorist hotbed of a population with a deep-seated and seething hatred of the US for entirely failing to support them like they said.

An egg broken from the inside is new life, and egg broken from the outside is food. Very likely nothing good comes from this.

/rant However people love to come out of the woodwork and celebrate how awesome it is when the US (or insert your power of choice) acts as the world police and murders a bunch of people to get its way. “It was a necessary sacrifice” they’ll say with steely eyed determination as they waltz into another conflict where innocents are murdered to make some old man feel better about themselves. Just a couple classes more dead kids bro, surely killing the dictator too will make people like us. Surely another boondoggle of a military campaign in the Middle East will lead to democracy there. We just have to keep bombing, killing people and breaking infrastructure is how you make a country free. /endrant

I mean, in both examples it's the ultimate fault of the people who put the school in harms way. Its not like the US or Israel just blatantly aimed at schoolchildren.

I categorically reject this. It was an unnecessary strike in the first place, those kids died for nothing, and their blood is, and will always be in similar situations, on the hands of the leaders who push for this kind of thing. If assassinating leaders was a net benefit, there are a few more locally that could be done with as much justification and far more personal gains. But it almost always isn’t.

The responsibility for dead children lay chiefly with those who kill them.
 

Carewolf

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Many Russians miss the Soviet state, many East Germans miss the DDR (or GDR as American say), people dont like change, people dont like the insecurity that change brings and they REALLY dont like chaos that upends their lives and its all well and good to say "Oh, but they are free!" but freedom is expensive and without safeguards easily becomes something very different and threathening.
In Germany the problem isnt the change in itself that was a the problem, it was the terrible transition. The Ostalgie as far I as know didn't really get going until the late 90s when the transition kept being rough especially for everybody that didn't move to the West. Though somehow now that same cause is now making the East the bedrock of the neo-facists in Germany.
 

wrylachlan

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For those not familiar with it, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) does pretty good coverage of the Ukraine-Russia war and they’re starting to cover Iran:

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-march-1-2026/

Top line from yesterday’s report is that the volume of Iranian retaliation markedly decreased between Saturday and Sunday and its targeting seems uncoordinated. Also the US has already achieved air superiority above Tehran. Taken together this means that the targeting of Iranian anti-air and Iranian command and control has been largely successful.

They’re also noting that it appears as though even though they’re in an existential war, the government is still allocating resources to stopping people from gathering in the streets. That tells me they have a legitimate fear that the people will use this opportunity to overthrow what remains of the government.
 

N4M8-

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Does everyone remember how Iran became an Islamic Republic? It wasnt forced on them, the Iranian people actually voted for it.

Sufficient people supported the notion. But it also helpful to keep in context what came before and how the Shah reigned what restrictions people lived under.
 

Tijger

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Sufficient people supported the notion. But it also helpful to keep in context what came before and how the Shah reigned what restrictions people lived under.

I am aware of that and of the Shah's regime as well. I also know who made him "Shah", his son is currently hoping the US will do the same thing with him now.
 

Crolis

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https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/us/americans-react-iran-attacks.html

Another NY Times asks American people questions article. This one is about Iran and the people are Texas voters. As you might imagine they largely support the war.

It is breathtaking how easy it is to convince the American people they are the heroes in any story if it involves killing brown people. If only Colin Powell understood the depths of this he never would have had to embarrass himself in front of the world. Just do the war and Americans would have jumped on board no problem.
 
D

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The US knew there was a school there and still decided it was better to kill everyone in it to get the adjacent military base. There’s no blaming bad intel or an accidental hit, this was a deliberate choice made by the US military. Maybe some people feel it’s justified. After all, what’s a hundred or so children in Iran worth? Their answer, by their actions, is “Nothing at all.”

This is war and so atrocities are to expected. But on the first day?
Not necessarily the case.
In this particular instance, it may have simply been outdated intelligence.

According to local intelligence sources, up until 2016 there was no school there, the building was part of the adjacent IRGC naval base.
The school may have been a general-purpose elementary school, but given the small student population (<200) in a town of >70K, more likely a school for IRGC families only, which is how it ended up with the base's real-estate.
 
D

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Not to defend the US, but it might have been an IDF strike that hit the school. It would be consistent with their 'tactics' in Gaza.
Nope. At that time in the campaign, the IDF was doing targeted assassinations and bombing missile launchers only, whereas the US was bombing strategic military targets, including many IRGC bases (3 naval bases were bombed in that wave, none by Israel).
 
D

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All I know of from reddit, it's one US F-15 shot down in Kuwait, by the Kuwaiti, and the pilot was almost lynched by the local since they thought it was Iranian jet.
Official CENTCOM announcement:
Three US F-15E fighters shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses. All 6 crew members ejected and parachuted to safety.

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS...friendly-fire-incident-in-kuwait-pilots-safe/

And I'm pretty sure the Kuwaiti population knows there aren't any Iranian combat jets any more (probably 10 exist that are flyable, and Iran doesn't have the spare parts to keep flying them). Not a single one took off in the June war, or in this war so far.
 
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D

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Does everyone remember how Iran became an Islamic Republic? It wasnt forced on them, the Iranian people actually voted for it.

Many people in Iran seem to want a less draconian version of an Islamic State but I'm not so sure they want to toss it in the bin either. The problem is, of course, that accurately gauging that is nigh impossible.
That vote was about as valid as Hitler's rise to power, with armed militias enforcing how people voted.
 
D

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Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has also launched 2 missiles at Cyprus (which fell short into the sea), and a UAV which hit the UK Akrotiti airbase there (property damage but no casualties).
I'm pretty sure that wouldn't have happened with the regime controlled by wiser folk; this is yet another example of leadership vacuum, like the multiple attacks on Saudi Arabia & Jordan.

The British bases in Cyprus count as British overseas territory according to the Cyprus 1960 Independence Agreement, so the UK could invoke NATO Article 5.

Somehow, I don't see that happening, but the UK, France & Germany did issue a joint proclamation that they would participate in destroying Iranian launch capabilities:

The UK, France and Germany, in a joint statement on Sunday evening, accused Iran of carrying out "indiscriminate and disproportionate" strikes.
"We will take steps to defend our interests and those of our allies in the region, potentially through enabling necessary and proportionate defensive action to destroy Iran's capability to fire missiles and drones at their source," they said, adding they have agreed to work with the US and others "on this matter".
(Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crrxkjxg1zpo )
 
That vote was about as valid as Hitler's rise to power, with armed militias enforcing how people voted.
I think it is warrented to look at a bit more of the history there.

In the beginning Iran was a relatively peaceful democratic republic. Then their president got " a bit uppity" and decided that all the oil proceeds going to British Petroleum and not the people of Iran was unfair or something. A rebellion was instigated by MI6 and the CIA (because nationalising petro industry might set a bad precedent) and the British duly got a Shah installed instead, one who would let them keep bringing in the oil money ofcourse. The Shahs ruled a bit heavy handed while the US and British empire lost interest in keeping him in power and under the guise of fighting the rule of the Shah and the British, the ultra-orthodox/extrimist Islamists seized power in the totally representative and not at all cooerced 98% vote to become an islamist republic.
 
If this total is somewhat correct, no wonder UAE is pissed off. And it's more advertisment for Lockheed considering interception rate.
Edit: Also no wonder Kuwait is trigger happy.


View: https://x.com/mintelworld/status/2028355107306250294

For those who can't see twitter, here is a screenshot
Screenshot_20260303_021041_Firefox.jpg
 
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Carewolf

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Does everyone remember how Iran became an Islamic Republic? It wasnt forced on them, the Iranian people actually voted for it.

Many people in Iran seem to want a less draconian version of an Islamic State but I'm not so sure they want to toss it in the bin either. The problem is, of course, that accurately gauging that is nigh impossible.
Was it a vote? Wasnt it just the islamists hijacked the revolution and screwing over everybody that had been revolting for liberal democracy?
 

PackSwede

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karolus

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I think it is warrented to look at a bit more of the history there.

In the beginning Iran was a relatively peaceful democratic republic. Then their president got " a bit uppity" and decided that all the oil proceeds going to British Petroleum and not the people of Iran was unfair or something. A rebellion was instigated by MI6 and the CIA (because nationalising petro industry might set a bad precedent) and the British duly got a Shah installed instead, one who would let them keep bringing in the oil money ofcourse. The Shahs ruled a bit heavy handed while the US and British empire lost interest in keeping him in power and under the guise of fighting the rule of the Shah and the British, the ultra-orthodox/extrimist Islamists seized power in the totally representative and not at all cooerced 98% vote to become an islamist republic.
In addition, some of the leadership of post-revolutionary Iran, such as Khomeni, had been living in the West for a long time as exiles/dissidents beforehand. It's not like the Iranian Revolution was some type of wholly organic movement.

Come to think of it, it bears some similarities to the Bolshevik Revolution. Lenin and other major players were similarly exiled. Kaiser Wilhelm thought he was playing some 5D chess by sending him back home, not realizing all the possible ramifications.
 

VividVerism

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Nope. At that time in the campaign, the IDF was doing targeted assassinations and bombing missile launchers only, whereas the US was bombing strategic military targets, including many IRGC bases (3 naval bases were bombed in that wave, none by Israel).
The IDF has done targeted assassinations in Gaza without any regard for collateral damage due to the location of the target, though. It would be entirely within the expected actions of the IDF to strike an elementary school if one of the kid's parents happened to be an IRCG officer (or even member) and said parent happened to be dropping off their child, picking them up for illness, or attending a school play or something. From the targeting of Hamas officials in the middle of refugee camps where Gazans were explicitly told to go for safety, I expect exactly zero restraint from the IDF at a children's school (if not a point in favor of striking).
 

BuckWyld

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The IDF has done targeted assassinations in Gaza without any regard for collateral damage due to the location of the target, though. It would be entirely within the expected actions of the IDF to strike an elementary school if one of the kid's parents happened to be an IRCG officer (or even member) and said parent happened to be dropping off their child, picking them up for illness, or attending a school play or something. From the targeting of Hamas officials in the middle of refugee camps where Gazans were explicitly told to go for safety, I expect exactly zero restraint from the IDF at a children's school (if not a point in favor of striking).

Trump also has a long history of targeting children for forced penetration.
 
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poochyena

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Its not like the US or Israel just blatantly aimed at schoolchildren.
Can I also accidentally kill a school filled with children without any questions asked, or is that only a thing that our special boy Trump can do?
Remember this isn't a coordinated war strike, this was essentially single handily decided by Trump with the rest of congress and our allies in the dark. Its not much different than Trump using a gun to shoot them himself.