War with...Iran?

[Nvoid82]

Do you think this time next year we’ll have a WWIII thread?

 

[Nvoid82]

I'm still entirely torn on how to feel feel about the US attacks on Iran. I can't help but feel it's going to turn into a quagmire and a fuster cluck in short order. Khamenei might be dead, but there's probably a line of equally terrible dudes lined up to take his very strict Islamist place. The IRGC will remain firmly in charge since they're the only ones with guns. The civilian population has little chance to actually effect a regime change and all the US seems intent on doing is aerial bombardment. Nothing that's so far been happening to me feels like it's going to achieve anything long term other than creating another terrorist hotbed of a population with a deep-seated and seething hatred of the US for entirely failing to support them like they said.

An egg broken from the inside is new life, and egg broken from the outside is food. Very likely nothing good comes from this.

/rant However people love to come out of the woodwork and celebrate how awesome it is when the US (or insert your power of choice) acts as the world police and murders a bunch of people to get its way. “It was a necessary sacrifice” they’ll say with steely eyed determination as they waltz into another conflict where innocents are murdered to make some old man feel better about themselves. Just a couple classes more dead kids bro, surely killing the dictator too will make people like us. Surely another boondoggle of a military campaign in the Middle East will lead to democracy there. We just have to keep bombing, killing people and breaking infrastructure is how you make a country free. /endrant

I mean, in both examples it's the ultimate fault of the people who put the school in harms way. Its not like the US or Israel just blatantly aimed at schoolchildren.

I categorically reject this. It was an unnecessary strike in the first place, those kids died for nothing, and their blood is, and will always be in similar situations, on the hands of the leaders who push for this kind of thing. If assassinating leaders was a net benefit, there are a few more locally that could be done with as much justification and far more personal gains. But it almost always isn’t.

The responsibility for dead children lay chiefly with those who kill them.

 

[Nvoid82]

I mean, that the alcoholic, wife beating, christian nationalist has apocalyptic views and will act on them without considering the consequences seems like a fork found in kitchen situation.

Edit: To elaborate on that a bit more, the idea of the end times being a good thing is incredibly common in evangelical churches, and I knew many people growing up who wanted a war in the middle east to bring them about. What kind of actions do you think a man like Hegseth would take if he believed it was to bring about a 1000 year reign of god?

 

[Nvoid82]

Lordy. Nothing like trotting out the oldest antisemitic trope in the book (The Joooz secretly control everything!), confidently asserted as fact with no supporting evidence whatsoever, but with the thinnest ‘I’m not being antisemitic because I’m criticizing Israel, not Jews in general!’ figleaf I’ve ever seen.

The US deference to Israel has nothing to do with Jewish people or Judaism, and everything to do with a large number of the US populace believing in an apocalyptic death cult where the messiah will return to a “rebuilt” Israel and usher in 1000 years of peace while all of America’s enemies (being unchristian sinners) are tortured in eternal hellfire. Were it not for this form of objectification, the antisemitism endemic to much of US culture would be far more explicit.

The US has been very deferent to Israel because it is viewed as a token, a necessary piece in a world ending puzzle fantasized about by many Christian Nationalists in the US. For other recent evidence, see Bush the Younger’s comments about his “crusade”. You can ask any American that grew up in a evangelical church about this and they’ll tell you the same. There exists a group of Americans who believe themselves to be chosen by God, and that Israel was given to the Jews by God and it is their sworn duty to protect Israel so God will bless then and allow them to genocide all the non-believers and then be raptured. It’s such a pervasive framing that even those who get away from it don’t consider how absurd the premise is to those who weren’t raised in that environment and so they don’t stop to explain it. This view I would consider a form of antisemitism in that it tokenizes a real place filled with real people to use for psychotic religious fantasies.

But it isn’t a new phenomenon, just American Exceptionalism in its modern form. The same strain of fanatical certainty that was used to justify Manifest Destiny is used to paper over and provide material support to Israel’s abuses today. But that isn’t because “Jews run the world”. It’s because of the religious beliefs in America that lend many politicians, particularly those on the right, to believe that they are acting on God’s will to back Israel in whatever and separately to destroy non-christian societies.

As to the substack article, thanks to who pointed it out, it doesn’t claim that Hegseth made those comments directly. However, I stand by my assertion of him sharing those beliefs. He would not be the first member of the government to do so, and everything about his posturing and presentation echoes them. Quoting from the substack article:

Hegseth has also initiated monthly prayer sessions, most recently featuring Doug Wilson, the far-right Christian nationalist. He has also brought in other preachers from his personal circle, rejecting any attempt at making the meetings ecumenical.

Hegseth himself also speaks at these meetings, proselytizing his personal religious beliefs. “This is … I think, exactly where we need to be as a nation, at this moment,” Hegseth reportedly said, “in prayer, on bended knee, recognizing the providence of our lord and savior Jesus Christ.”

The war in Iran cannot be separated from religious extremism in America because it is one of the core motivating factors for a lot of the American players.

In his book, Mr. Hegseth also offered a nod to the prospect of future violence: “Our American Crusade is not about literal swords, and our fight is not with guns. Yet.”

 

[Nvoid82]

And who's going to fund that? Iran's leadership is in disarray, and while you may think of that as "dozens of newly autonomous regional commanders to stop", it's much more likely to wind up similar to Gaza where military weapons production and importation ceases because the institutions of society itself are too damaged to function beyond what's needed to eke out a basic existence.

When I say that Ukraine can't reliably disrupt Russia's weapons production, I'm not simply talking about the physical production, but the economic capabilities and motivations that underpin it.

Iran is simply in no place to sustain a long-term conflict with the combined might of the US and Israel. Last time they tried, they capitulated within 12 days, and that was with the US largely staying out of the fighting.

Iran, a country larger than Mongolia, will be reduced to an economic situation comparable to Gaza? By what forces?

There’s a lot of runway between here and there.

 

[Nvoid82]

It’s a useful psychology exploit for lots of things, including storytelling. You give someone a big gun and they will find reasons to use it, but guns can’t solve every problem so they just use it more.

 

[Nvoid82]

A distinction without a difference. It's clear Netanyahu convinced Trump that this war was necessary and they're a very willing part of the bombing. At this point, claiming it wasn't Israel is just playing semantic games.

I’m gonna strongly disagree there. Who does what is a meaningful difference, even if it is at the direction of an ally. The US bombed those desalination plants. The US murdered those schoolgirls. That distinctions has a meaningful difference if you’re a citizen of the US.

If you are, that means they were done in our name. If we want that to change, we have to accept the facts as they are.

 

[Nvoid82]

You've missed the point. The US is responsible for its actions, but it absolutely positively needs to be recognized that this is a joint war and Israel doesn't get to pretend it has no role in atrocities.

I didn’t miss the point, and I’m not arguing that Israel has no responsibility. Claiming “Israel hasn’t hit any” is a linguistic deflection, but so is claiming that’s a distinction without a difference. There is a meaningful difference between what Israel does of its own accord and what the US
does and enables.

That a desalination plant was bombed is bad and wrong. But as an American living in America, it’s kind of important context to me that it was the US who did the bombing. I don’t give a fuck who told them to, it shouldn’t’ve happened.