War with...Iran?

Megalodon

Ars Legatus Legionis
36,639
Subscriptor
I guess USA can try to block trade into Iran, but I am also not sure how successful that would be.

They're connected to Russia by the Caspian Sea, and Russia facilitating shipments is all upside for them. The war is degrading US capabilities, it's wasting precious interceptors that could have gone to Ukraine, it's lifted oil sanctions and caused the price of oil to skyrocket. What's not to like from their perspective?

How would the US even attempt to limit trade across the Caspian?
 

goates

Ars Praefectus
3,261
Subscriptor++
Australia confirmed they won’t be sending any ships and the UK said they’ll send mine sweeping ships. Japan just said there are high hurdles to sending ships (basically, no), and South Korea said they’re considering the suggestion (a face saving stalling tactic, basically).

Israel isn’t being asked to send any ships AFAIK.

Trump has also taken to threatening NATO. Nothing like creating an mess and then threatening others to fix it.

President Trump is trying to assemble an international coalition to reopen the strait. He says it really doesn’t matter to the U.S., which is ‘oil independent,’ and countries that get their oil through the strait should step up. He also had very ominous words for NATO allies, stating: “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of Nato.” Apparently, the White House plans to announce who will be in this maritime coalition soon.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/i...could-go-on-for-another-three-weeks#h-updates
 
Australia confirmed they won’t be sending any ships and the UK said they’ll send mine sweeping ships. Japan just said there are high hurdles to sending ships (basically, no), and South Korea said they’re considering the suggestion (a face saving stalling tactic, basically).

Israel isn’t being asked to send any ships AFAIK.
Last I heard these commitments were for after hostilities ended.
 

goates

Ars Praefectus
3,261
Subscriptor++
How would the US even attempt to limit trade across the Caspian?
One would have to cut a deal with one of the other countries on the Caspian to base aircraft from, and maybe smaller patrol boats. Not sure Azerbaijan Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan would go for it though.
 

Megalodon

Ars Legatus Legionis
36,639
Subscriptor
One would have to cut a deal with one of the other countries on the Caspian to base aircraft from, and maybe smaller patrol boats. Not sure Azerbaijan Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan would go for it though.

Ah yes, I'm sure they would love to provide material aide to the opponents of their neighbors, Iran and Russia.
 

Macam

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,211
US under Trump threatening NATO is fully into embarrassing territory. Wonder how the Soriaks of the forum feel being embarrassing.

Spare us on the latter, please.

That said, the future of NATO is already really bad. There's a reason Macron called out that the next 50 years will be an era of nuclear weapons and Poland is moving in that direction. NATO is already making plans for the US to be out and it's directly because of him. So threatening them further isn't really the winner he thinks it is.

It almost seems like he's trying to invoke Article 5 for his and Israel's regional war they started, but someone in his vicinity explained to him that that's not how that works. Where are Israel's boats? Saudi Arabia's? Qatar? UAE? Those are all his BFFs that he's so friendly with, go get them to send boats out.

Anyway, good luck to the markets tomorrow. No one's going to help the US. At this rate, they're more inclined to strike a realpolitik deal with Iran, who's more trustworthy.
 

Macam

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,211
Looks like MBS is telling Trump to keep hitting Iran:

President Donald Trump has been in regular contact with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during the war, according to White House officials cited by The New York Times.

◽ Several officials told the NYT that Mohammed bin Salman has been urging Trump to continue striking Iran hard.
◽ The Washington Post previously reported that Saudi and Israeli officials privately pushed Trump to launch military strikes on Iran in the weeks before the war, even as Riyadh publicly emphasized diplomacy and de-escalation.
◽ The NYT also notes that Trump has been speaking “almost every day” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

So Netanyahu basically goaded Trump into this stupid ass war and MBS is encouraging him to keep it going. Hard to imagine having a bigger sucker for a president. If Biden was a sucker for Netanyahu (and he was), Trump is all of that and more.

Japan responds to Trump's request: いいえ



EU leaders should just play back Trump's campaign message when he asks for them to send boats in: "America first"
 
We are already at USA threatening NATO and other nations phase of the diplomacy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/15/iran-war-news-live-updates-us-israel-middle-east-crisis-latest-kharg-island?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with:block-69b742d38f086d5b46c03648#block-69b742d38f086d5b46c03648

Trump
It’s only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there.

If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of Nato.
 
Last edited:

Camacan

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,093
Subscriptor
Australia confirmed they won’t be sending any ships and the UK said they’ll send mine sweeping ships. Japan just said there are high hurdles to sending ships (basically, no), and South Korea said they’re considering the suggestion (a face saving stalling tactic, basically).

Israel isn’t being asked to send any ships AFAIK.
To my mind, Australia hasn't said no exactly but wants no part of the debacle and so is being evasive in an attempt at avoiding retaliation. From The Guardian.
Australia maintains it has not received any formal requests to send warships to the strait.

“We won’t be sending a ship to the strait of Hormuz,” transport minister Catherine King told the national broadcaster. “We know how incredibly important that is but that’s not something we’ve been asked or we’re contributing to.”
The article I'm pulling that from is entitled "Japan and Australia say they have no plans to send ships to strait of Hormuz as Trump increases pressure", but to me the headline is more decisive than the incredibly limited messaging warrants. It's the transport minister saying "no current plans", not the defense minister or PM saying "no plans." Perhaps that's intentional diplomacy.
 
Last edited:

tigas

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,361
Subscriptor
NATO's naval presence stops in the Mediterranean. Trump needs to call the EU, ask for Miss Kaja Kallas and enquire about EUNAVFOR

(For those with longer memories, Kallas' position was designed to answer Kissinger's complaint that he couldn't "call Europe on the phone")
 

etr

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,077
NATO is already making plans for the US to be out and it's directly because of him.
If other NATO nations they think about it, it's not just Trump.

Over 28 years, they will have had 12 years with Obama and Biden and a likely 16 years with Bush II, Trump's terms. Ignoring incumbent victories, the US has chosen a disaster for a new leader 3 out of 5 times. That mix suggests an underlying fickleness in the manner in which the US picks its leaders (with both electorate and system factors), and that the US is picking a leader hostile to the reliable, ordered approach they presumably valued in the US as a partner.

If and when the US selects leaders who want to work productively (assuming things are not blown entirely apart), then the order of the day should be nothing more than duct tape and chewing gum for existing agreements and short term transactionalism until the US demonstrates a track record sanity, which would require the selection of responsible leadership over at least two--and probably three or more--decades.
 

amyklai

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,061
If other NATO nations they think about it, it's not just Trump.

Over 28 years, they will have had 12 years with Obama and Biden and a likely 16 years with Bush II, Trump's terms. Ignoring incumbent victories, the US has chosen a disaster for a new leader 3 out of 5 times. That mix suggests an underlying fickleness in the manner in which the US picks its leaders (with both electorate and system factors), and that the US is picking a leader hostile to the reliable, ordered approach they presumably valued in the US as a partner.

If and when the US selects leaders who want to work productively (assuming things are not blown entirely apart), then the order of the day should be nothing more than duct tape and chewing gum for existing agreements and short term transactionalism until the US demonstrates a track record sanity, which would require the selection of responsible leadership over at least two--and probably three or more--decades.
On top of that, Obama wanted to "pivot to Asia", so the even the sane US leaders wanted to move away from Europe to a certain extent. The world order of the cold war has been dissolving for a while now, and it's not coming back. The sanity / insanity of each president only modifies the velocity and orderliness of the process, that's all.

As crazy as it sounds, it might actually be better for Europe if NATO is abandoned to make the new realities clear for absolutely everyone instead of some people still mentally living in a world that no longer exists.
 
Last edited:

SedsAtArs

Ars Scholae Palatinae
660

Embattle

Ars Tribunus Militum
1,663
I'll go back to what I said in one of the various threads after Trump won, as far as the majority of Europe is concerned, the fact America voted him in once is bad, but then you then did it again means there is a high probability a Trump like candidate getting in to the White House again, and thus Europe is making moves to make sure they won't have to rely on America again.
 

Paengwyn

Smack-Fu Master, in training
58
Australia confirmed they won’t be sending any ships and the UK said they’ll send mine sweeping ships. Japan just said there are high hurdles to sending ships (basically, no), and South Korea said they’re considering the suggestion (a face saving stalling tactic, basically).

Israel isn’t being asked to send any ships AFAIK.

The UK's planning to send aerial minesweeping drones rather than ships on the basis that 'sending ships, as requested over the weekend by the US president, could worsen the situation given the volatile nature of the war' [1]. This is as close to telling Trump to do one as the UK can get considering our self-inflicted economic stupidities and that various administration official have assured us all there are no mines anyway.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/15/uk-plans-minesweeping-drones-help-reopen-strait-hormuz
 

Tijger

Ars Legatus Legionis
13,672
Subscriptor++

What future for NATO? Oh, right, the future without the US, you mean? Yeah, that'll be fine and the sooner the better.

'He's already supporting our closest enemy, he's already put tariffs on us and he's already made it clear the US is no longer an ally but an adversary.
 
Last edited:

Soriak

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,815
Subscriptor
US under Trump threatening NATO is fully into embarrassing territory. Wonder how the Soriaks of the forum feel being embarrassing.
I don't see this as a threat to NATO. What it's saying is that it's a bad sign for the future of NATO if it cannot muster a response to its members getting hit by rockets. I agree. Same can be said about Russia's ongoing violation of NATO airspace with their drones.

Iran is striking civilian targets, from hotels and civilian airports to oil tankers. It's mining a passage that delivers oil largely to Europe (Chinese vessals are passing just fine). So yeah, there should be some interest in doing something about that. If not, what's the point of that navy? To parade around international waters as a show of strength and unity while avoiding any encounter that might call for a show of strength and unity?

Despite what you guys seemingly want to believe, the US casualty count is below 20 and the IRGC casualty estimate is in the thousands, including pretty much the entire senior leadership. Command and control centers have been destroyed, dozens of ships have been sunk, and the new Ayatollah is reportedly undergoing surgery in Moscow. His first public announcement was a photo and a statement read by someone, which is clearly the sign of someone who is in control. And while, one day, the US will run out of interceptor missiles, Iran is quickly running out of places to launch missiles from.

Markets can outlast another few months of this easily. The Iranian regime cannot. We went through the same social media narrative when Israel invaded Gaza: no way they can do it, they will take heavy casualties, etc. And we now know how that ended: Hamas is no longer a threat to the region. This time, Iran seemingly can't even fund mass protests anymore... guess nobody wants to set up a camp on a college campus anymore. (Or maybe there was slightly less enthusiasm after the Columbia University group that organized the encampments started posting "Death to America" -- you know, the kind of thing that really helps build support in America and shows that you're not a foreign-funded operation.)
 

SedsAtArs

Ars Scholae Palatinae
660
I don't see this as a threat to NATO. What it's saying is that it's a bad sign for the future of NATO if it cannot muster a response to its members getting hit by rockets. I agree. Same can be said about Russia's ongoing violation of NATO airspace with their drones.
You don't see it as a threat to NATO that Trump explicitly says it'll be bad for NATO's future if they don't come and help with the war he already won? The guy who already threatened for years to not fulfill NATO obligations if Russia were to attack?

Violations against NATO airspace by drones has been ignored as a way of staying out of a hot war with Russia. You think the US has been of a different opinion on this matter, for a war where they've gradually pulled out to the point where they are only selling weapons to Europe to pass on to Ukraine?
Iran is striking civilian targets, from hotels and civilian airports to oil tankers. It's mining a passage that delivers oil largely to Europe (Chinese vessals are passing just fine). So yeah, there should be some interest in doing something about that. If not, what's the point of that navy? To parade around international waters as a show of strength and unity while avoiding any encounter that might call for a show of strength and unity?
Who could have foreseen this happening? Apart from literally everyone who thought about it for more than a second? How about building a coalition to police this situation before causing it? No, that would be too simple. Instead you threaten to invade your allies first, shit on their contribution to your previous Middle East wars second and then invade without telling anyone third.

Despite what you guys seemingly want to believe, the US casualty count is below 20 and the IRGC casualty estimate is in the thousands, including pretty much the entire senior leadership. Command and control centers have been destroyed, dozens of ships have been sunk, and the new Ayatollah is reportedly undergoing surgery in Moscow. His first public announcement was a photo and a statement read by someone, which is clearly the sign of someone who is in control. And while, one day, the US will run out of interceptor missiles, Iran is quickly running out of places to launch missiles from.
Nobody's rooting for the Iranian regime here, despite what you seemingly want to believe.
And we were already told by Trump that Iran is 100% defeated, you don't need to tell us again.
 

Ananke

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,420
Subscriptor
Despite what you guys seemingly want to believe, the US casualty count is below 20 and the IRGC casualty estimate is in the thousands, including pretty much the entire senior leadership. Command and control centers have been destroyed, dozens of ships have been sunk
Why would we believe otherwise? Despite it's failings, this is the kind of thing the US military is exceptionally good at, and it bloody well should be: it's spent decades and trillions of dollars equipping and practicing to be very good at blowing shit up via missile and guided bomb.

It would be, you know, nice if some of those things they were blowing up weren't schools full of children, but apparently war crimes are very In this decade.

As you are entirely aware, the thrust of conversation in this thread is not whether the USA is willing or capable of picking targets in a foreign country and making them go "boom", it's about the wider questions of:
  • Why is the US making those targets to boom? What is the overall political goal of starting (or joining in with Israel's) war on Iran?
  • Does either the political will or military capability exist to perform all of the other steps involved in meeting that political goal?

It really should go without saying - and I suspect you are well aware of it even if it is convenient to your posting style not to acknowledge it - that air strikes are one of a vast array of tools, both violent and non-violent, to achieve a given political outcome; they are neither a political goal in-and-of themselves, nor are they a surefire way to achieve any given actual political goal. We have a fairly good idea of the actual political goals of both Netanyahu and Trump - stay out of prison, keep corruption and paedophilia out of the media - but you, they, and the media are all too polite to mention that. They keep parroting an endlessly changing conga-line of political goals that sound a lot less self-serving, many of them genuinely laudable ones; except for the fact that they're fairly non-credible (both in terms of whether the people spouting them believe that they are an actual credible goal, or whether the actions being carried out are at all compatible with making progress to achieve them).

I don't see this as a threat to NATO. What it's saying is that it's a bad sign for the future of NATO if it cannot muster a response to its members getting hit by rockets. I agree. Same can be said about Russia's ongoing violation of NATO airspace with their drones.

So, to be clear, after alternating between variously threatening to invade allied countries, lying about whether allied countries came to help when his country asked, fucking with the economies of allied countries, insulting allied countries, promising not to bother helping allied countries, asking historic enemies to invade allied countries, and now trying to blackmail allied countries into helping dig him out of the hole of his own creation that he dug while trying to get out of a different hole (you know, one filled with abused children), the real threat to NATO is Iran?
 
Last edited:

BenN

Ars Legatus Legionis
11,419
I don't see this as a threat to NATO. What it's saying is that it's a bad sign for the future of NATO if it cannot muster a response to its members getting hit by rockets. I agree. Same can be said about Russia's ongoing violation of NATO airspace with their drones.

Iran is striking civilian targets, from hotels and civilian airports to oil tankers. It's mining a passage that delivers oil largely to Europe (Chinese vessals are passing just fine). So yeah, there should be some interest in doing something about that. If not, what's the point of that navy? To parade around international waters as a show of strength and unity while avoiding any encounter that might call for a show of strength and unity?

Despite what you guys seemingly want to believe, the US casualty count is below 20 and the IRGC casualty estimate is in the thousands, including pretty much the entire senior leadership. Command and control centers have been destroyed, dozens of ships have been sunk, and the new Ayatollah is reportedly undergoing surgery in Moscow. His first public announcement was a photo and a statement read by someone, which is clearly the sign of someone who is in control. And while, one day, the US will run out of interceptor missiles, Iran is quickly running out of places to launch missiles from.

Markets can outlast another few months of this easily. The Iranian regime cannot. We went through the same social media narrative when Israel invaded Gaza: no way they can do it, they will take heavy casualties, etc. And we now know how that ended: Hamas is no longer a threat to the region. This time, Iran seemingly can't even fund mass protests anymore... guess nobody wants to set up a camp on a college campus anymore. (Or maybe there was slightly less enthusiasm after the Columbia University group that organized the encampments started posting "Death to America" -- you know, the kind of thing that really helps build support in America and shows that you're not a foreign-funded operation.)
This is the FAFO moment for the US, maybe their Suez Crisis moment. Denigrate & threaten the nations that have hitherto been your most faithful allies, slap senseless tariffs on us, seemingly support the preeminent hostile power that presents an existential threat to us on our continent, and then expect us to put our servicemen's lives on the line to help extricate you from a mess purely of your own creation? No. Fuck that.
 

tigas

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,361
Subscriptor
I don't see this as a threat to NATO. What it's saying is that it's a bad sign for the future of NATO if it cannot muster a response to its members getting hit by rockets. I agree. Same can be said about Russia's ongoing violation of NATO airspace with their drones.

Iran is striking civilian targets, from hotels and civilian airports to oil tankers. It's mining a passage that delivers oil largely to Europe (Chinese vessals are passing just fine). So yeah, there should be some interest in doing something about that. If not, what's the point of that navy? To parade around international waters as a show of strength and unity while avoiding any encounter that might call for a show of strength and unity?
"its members getting hit by rockets" no European territory is being hit by rockets at the moment, it's been a long time since any European country has had colonial possessions in the Gulf. And very little European-owned shipping is flagged in Europe. If ship owners don't want the obligations and taxation of getting flagged in their country, they certainly can't expect the country's naval protection.

Iran isn't actually mining the Strait because that is indiscriminate, and Iran is precisely after the power to discriminate in favour of its friends (for now, China). Europe taking up the brooms and mopping up the US's turds just guarantees Iran blocking their shipments.

And for the final time, I hope, NATO has no place in this. European naval forces in the Indian, Horn of Africa and Red Sea are under each country's banner or under an EU umbrella like an EUNAVFOR mission (like ATALANTA)
 

bjn

Ars Praefectus
5,075
Subscriptor++
"its members getting hit by rockets" no European territory is being hit by rockets at the moment, it's been a long time since any European country has had colonial possessions in the Gulf. And very little European-owned shipping is flagged in Europe. If ship owners don't want the obligations and taxation of getting flagged in their country, they certainly can't expect the country's naval protection.

Iran isn't actually mining the Strait because that is indiscriminate, and Iran is precisely after the power to discriminate in favour of its friends (for now, China). Europe taking up the brooms and mopping up the US's turds just guarantees Iran blocking their shipments.

And for the final time, I hope, NATO has no place in this. European naval forces in the Indian, Horn of Africa and Red Sea are under each country's banner or under an EU umbrella like an EUNAVFOR mission (like ATALANTA)
One minor quibble, a drone struck British sovereign territory on the island Cyprus (imperial history gets you these things) launched by a militant group from either Iraq or Lebanon. While not launched by Iran, it was launched by one of their close friends.

Apart from that, completely agreed.

Also, where the hell was the USA when the British territory of the Falklands was invaded by the fascist regime then ruling Argentina. Not a finger lifted in aid. (Thatcher was still a monster regardless). The US certainly demands a lot from its allies, look at the debacles of Iraq and Afghanistan, but now, not only does it sit on its hands when Putin tries to kick the door in, it demands that we join in on a war we had no say in.
 

zenparadox

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,383
Subscriptor++
I don't know, I mean, one doesn't need object permanence to fear the bear meandering across the trail they are hiking on, after all, it's right there, visible, in front of you. Similarly, the gas prices are right there, in front of his face. He doesn't need any significant capability to fear that.

Though, this explanation may explain why his fear of high gas prices didn't prevent him from picking a fight in Iran. After all, when he picked that fight, the bear wasn't crossing the path directly in front of him...

Sort of, I mean, he's familiar with realty preventing him from doing things when he has overreached, and capible of backing down when that happens. That said, he has always existed in a consequence proof bubble where backing down was always enough to prevent the consequences of overreach from hammering him. And, so this situation where there is no way to put Humpty Dumpty back together is something unfamiliar to him.

That is an interesting way to put the decision not to jump into a burning pit of hellfire and scorpions: "before now, nobody has bothered trying leaping into the burning pit of hellfire and scorpions, so I'm going to be the first and thereby make my legacy"...

And, yet, I'm sure that's exactly how both of them think about this, not realizing that it isn't so much that nobody bothered trying as how everyone else correctly identified the morass as a burning pit of hellfire and scorpions and that it would be profoundly stupid to jump into it.
Yeah I am definitely using reality in a reductionist way; to me the basis for reality is that everything has consequence as it interacts. Laws of energy, motion etc. Most of us have to deal with much more social consequences, which is your point if I understand correctly. It's bigger than that to me, Trump's whole 'reality' is an alien hellscape and I'm glad I'm not born into that world every moment I'm alive.
 

N4M8-

Ars Legatus Legionis
18,853
Subscriptor
Also, where the hell was the USA when the British territory of the Falklands was invaded by the fascist regime then ruling Argentina. Not a finger lifted in aid. (Thatcher was still a monster regardless). The US certainly demands a lot from its allies, look at the debacles of Iraq and Afghanistan, but now, not only does it sit on its hands when Putin tries to kick the door in, it demands that we join in on a war we had no say in.

From wikipedia:

The US provided Britain with 200 Sidewinder missiles for use by the Harrier jets,[197][198] eight Stinger surface-to-air missile systems, Harpoon anti-ship missiles and mortar bombs.[199] On Ascension Island, the underground fuel tanks were empty when the British Task Force arrived in mid-April 1982 and the leading assault ship, HMS Fearless, did not have enough fuel to dock when it arrived off the island. The United States diverted a supertanker to replenish both the fuel tanks of ships at anchor there and the storage tanks on the island with approximately 2,000,000 US gallons (7,600,000 L; 1,700,000 imp gal) of fuel.[200] The Pentagon further committed to providing additional support in the event that the war dragged on into the Southern Hemisphere's winter. In that scenario, the US committed tanker aircraft to support Royal Air Force missions in Europe, releasing RAF aircraft to support operations over the Falklands.[201]

The United States allowed the United Kingdom to use American communication satellites for secure communications between submarines in the Southern Ocean and Naval HQ in Britain. The US also passed on satellite imagery (which it publicly denied[202]) and weather forecast data to the British Fleet.[203]

US President Ronald Reagan approved the Royal Navy's request to borrow a Sea Harrier-capable Iwo Jima-class amphibious assault ship (the US Navy had earmarked USS Guam (LPH-9) for this[204]) in the event a British aircraft carrier was lost. The US Navy developed a plan to help the British man the ship with American military contractors, who would likely be retired sailors with knowledge of the ship's systems.
 

Zod

Ars Praefectus
4,724
Subscriptor++
One minor quibble, a drone struck British sovereign territory on the island Cyprus (imperial history gets you these things) launched by a militant group from either Iraq or Lebanon. While not launched by Iran, it was launched by one of their close friends.

Apart from that, completely agreed.

Also, where the hell was the USA when the British territory of the Falklands was invaded by the fascist regime then ruling Argentina. Not a finger lifted in aid. (Thatcher was still a monster regardless). The US certainly demands a lot from its allies, look at the debacles of Iraq and Afghanistan, but now, not only does it sit on its hands when Putin tries to kick the door in, it demands that we join in on a war we had no say in.
In any case, no need for Article 5 when the atttack is so minor that a nation can deal with it itself.

Reagan could have helped Thatcher wrap up the Falklands without a shot being fired just by putting the hard word on Galtieri.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bjn

DarthSlack

Ars Legatus Legionis
23,063
Subscriptor++
Australia confirmed they won’t be sending any ships and the UK said they’ll send mine sweeping ships. Japan just said there are high hurdles to sending ships (basically, no), and South Korea said they’re considering the suggestion (a face saving stalling tactic, basically).

Israel isn’t being asked to send any ships AFAIK.

So I guess its on to Trump Plan B: Ask the Russians to send the Admiral Kuznetsov.
 

Tijger

Ars Legatus Legionis
13,672
Subscriptor++
In any case, no need for Article 5 when the atttack is so minor that a nation can deal with it itself.

Reagan could have helped Thatcher wrap up the Falklands without a shot being fired just by putting the hard word on Galtieri.

Art 5 is subject to a vote and not automatic and we already know Trump wont support an Art 5 vote if a European nation is attacked by his buddy Putin.
 

Tijger

Ars Legatus Legionis
13,672
Subscriptor++

Macam

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,211
Let’s check in and see how Operation: Plz Halp
Is going, shall we?



Link



Link

Looks like Starmer watched enough Game of Thrones and was like, “the North remembers”.

Meanwhile, the details of how we got here are completely unsurprising:



Link



Link

Excerpts from NYT.

Again, hard to think of a bigger sucker than Trump. Just getting played from all angles.

He’s currently complaining that all the Iranian protest crowds are fake and that the opposition didn’t have support, which is quite something from the person that sleeps through all his meetings, doesn’t listen to his own career staff and experts, and AI slops everything on all the domestic government accounts.

Where is the US’ Navy? I thought we rebuilt the military to be the biggest strongest military ever after previous administrations wrecked it. Now we can’t put boats in the Hormuz because of a speedboat and a few mines? The hypocrisy and lies are all so transparent.

The US barely had any lingering credibility after electing this clown a second time, but now we’re watching in realtime the burning and salting of any remaining soft power for decades.
 

Sajuuk

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,864
Subscriptor++

Donald Trump Stuns With 'Maybe We Shouldn't Even Be There' Admission About Iran War

Donald Trump left critics in disbelief on Sunday with a remark about his Iran war during a press gaggle aboard Air Force One.
The president was discussing his call for other countries to send ships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, the vital — and currently effectively shut — waterway off Iran through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes.

[...]

“You could make the case that maybe we shouldn’t even be there at all because we don’t need it.”

“We have a lot of oil,” said Trump. “We were the number one producer anywhere in the world times two by double, at least double. Now I think it’s much higher than that. But we do it. It’s almost like we do it for habit, but we also do it for some very good allies that we have in the Middle East.”
<squinting-between-the-biggest-lines-ever-put-down>

The war is going really well everybody. Did you know we only have -20 American casualties and we've killed all the Iranians already?
 
Dude is 100% at the age and mental capability where if he was a normal person he would get conned out of everything he owned by a Televangelist he saw while channel surfing on a TV.


Let’s check in and see how Operation: Plz Halp
Is going, shall we?
~snip~

Dude is getting taken in and conned by everyone around him in ways he doesn't even understand any more.

Hes the senile emperor doing whatever the last court eunuch whispered into his ear.

Some weeks that eunuch is Miller and we get an immigration surge. Sometimes its Navarro and we get tariffs. Sometimes its Mike Johnson and we get Trans Panic. Other times its Netanyahu and we get a war.