War with...Iran?

[etr]

NATO is already making plans for the US to be out and it's directly because of him.

If other NATO nations they think about it, it's not just Trump.

Over 28 years, they will have had 12 years with Obama and Biden and a likely 16 years with Bush II, Trump's terms. Ignoring incumbent victories, the US has chosen a disaster for a new leader 3 out of 5 times. That mix suggests an underlying fickleness in the manner in which the US picks its leaders (with both electorate and system factors), and that the US is picking a leader hostile to the reliable, ordered approach they presumably valued in the US as a partner.

If and when the US selects leaders who want to work productively (assuming things are not blown entirely apart), then the order of the day should be nothing more than duct tape and chewing gum for existing agreements and short term transactionalism until the US demonstrates a track record sanity, which would require the selection of responsible leadership over at least two--and probably three or more--decades.

 

[etr]

My read is that hostility stems from those states allying themselves with the Iranian regime's enemies.

I think the region has some rivalries that would have arisen regardless.

It's also worth pointing out that the disruption Iran is causing its neighbors now comes despite years of US money and support. Had that money and support been off the table, how would have Iran's rivals have fared?

This does not absolve the US, however. Bringing the weaker side up to parity or near-parity only to push the two sides to combat is an excellent way to maximize harm, after all.

 

[etr]

I do think some will, and I say that not to suggest it is redeemable, but more because the Trump coalition never had amazing margins and pretty much all of it is load bearing. The amount of it he can afford to lose is not large, and he's losing a lot.

Some present-day Trump voters might ultimately be convinced to vote differently, and while that's not nothing, it's different from admitting an avoidable mistake.

While I'm not particularly inclined to pick at wounds, the fact remains that the person who says, "Voting for Trump was an avoidable mistake I regret," is probably going to be less susceptible to future problem votes than someone who says, "Wow, Trump turned out really bad, but how was I to know?" In number, the difference between those two positions may make the difference as to whether the US can ever correct course.

Probably more importantly whether or how loudly someone utters such words is what they recognize privately.