War with...Iran?

[Locke]

US president calling it "war" despite not involving congress.
PLEASE tell me this is an impeachable offence?

An impeachable offense is whatever Congress says it is.

Impeachment verdicts can not be questioned by any court.

Both legally and practically in the sense that if you have the votes to impeach the President then you have the votes to impeach any judge who thinks even hearing the case is a good idea.


We are at war with Iran because the the DC press corps, the Republican party as a whole and some Democrats, are willing to let Trump kill innocent people to distract from him being a pedophile.

If I had the effort or stomach I would find every headline, article or tweet from a pundit about how Trump will end random wars and is really the peace candidate, gather them by the hundreds, register a reddit account and post it to /r/agedlikemilk.

 

[Locke]

I'm seeing post on BlueSky claiming the US and its allies in the Gulf have already expended 800 PAC-3 interceptors (200 canisters), which is more than the total given to Ukraine. And that PAC-3 stocks for Qatar have been pegged as 4 day's worth.

Someone shared a gift-link for a Bloomberg article, link expires in 6 days.

Now the fun starts: Zelenskyy gave an interview to RAI, trying VERY hard not to smile while saying he's got the cards now.
View attachment 129737

Spoiler: Bluesky embed

View: https://bsky.app/profile/kristiankiehling.bsky.social/post/3mgcoqee2qk2l

We're already seeing interceptor shortages a week into the war. Given Iran's reputed stock piles and the relative ease of manufacturing their style of drone it is likely they could start launching more successful attacks as defenders are forced to be pickier about their target selection. As we've seen with Ukraine its easier to destroy than to protect or defend. If you launch a hundred drones at a power plant and only one gets through it can still take out power for weeks or months.

The US has set the goal as regime change, at least officially. But Iran isn't a straight autocracy with a dictator and no one else. It is a relatively stable system with established systems of succession, oppressive as those systems may be. The real goal of Trump is to bury the Epstein files and the real goal for Netanyahu is to stay out of prison.

I think this means time is on Iran's side. The war is unpopular in the US and if casualties mount, or even gas prices spike, it will become even more unpopular. If Trump is stupid/desperate enough to put boots on the ground it could crater approval even faster.

Which is a lot of preamble to say: This is a lot closer to the Ukraine conflict than I think the media realizes. This may be a long war. A prolonged conflict favors real political goals of the aggressors. Where as all Iran has to do is not fully surrender.

 

[Locke]

Yeah this. If someone is able to manipulate him, it barely matters how they're doing it; he becomes their tool. Trump is notoriously susceptible to flattery and bribes. Putin is more than smart enough to have seen that. So assume that.

Dude is 100% at the age and mental capability where if he was a normal person he would get conned out of everything he owned by a Televangelist he saw while channel surfing on a TV.

 

[Locke]

Thinking about this last night, so now we have a, potentially, more hardline leader in Iran. Have we moved past a potential off ramp for the foreseeable future?

Iran has no reason too stop being belligerent toward the oil traffic in the straight. If anything, the more pain they cause there, the quicker the USA and its gulf allies look to end things, right?

I guess we have no real idea what Trump's tolerance for >$100 barrel oil is. In the past I'd have said low, since he only ever seems to pull back when the markets make it clear he needs to. But this feels like it might be beyond his ability to do. If energy prices stay super high, and bond yields keep going up, how the hell will this not induce a recession at home? How long can these price levels and this much uncertainty in global energy be tollerated?

And at the same time, even if the USA went home this afternoon, how does that not embolden Iran to keep doing what it's doing? There has to be a diplomatic resolution here or there's no reason for Iran to stop messing around, right? How do we even get to diplomacy w/o boots on the ground?

I'm genuinely asking. I really can't get a feel for how this unfolds, like, what's even likely?

The complicating factor is that the war with Iran is a way for

1. The Iranian regime to stay in power ("See, we told you America would try to colonize us!"
1. Netanayhu to stay out of prison for the shit load of bribes he took
3. Trump to avoid a scandal for all the kids he molested

I don't think any of those three give a solitary fuck about people doing the fighting and dying, let alone the cost of oil.

Sure, it'll be unpopular, but that isn't a change for the first two and Trump thinks the war with Iran polls at 90% because his brain is cooked by AI generated misinformation by his staff, so he doesn't even know hes unpopular.

 

[Locke]

I'm sure China will be very impressed by how the US has combined running low on AA after a week of war against a much smaller opponent while further alienating their European allies.

The real game changers for drones isn't that they're magic win buttons, its that everyone just kinda assumed they would only need anti-air capabilities for air craft in the hundreds, not in the tens of thousands and don't have the magazine depth to deal with it.

Since our AA is almost all missile based its almost impossible to have the number of missiles needed. As we saw in Ukraine you need a bunch of glorified technicals with short range radar and proximity fused auto canons everywhere.

It turns out Ukraine didn't go that solution because they're too dumb to have enough missiles, but because that is what works.

 

[Locke]

Here's the plan:

Everything going wrong is his fault and that is the only thing we are going to talk about until November 2028. He won't be any shape to run again, whether or not he thinks he can get around the 22A, so Republican prospects in 2028 are going to come down to how much they can distance themselves from him. They can either commit to defending him every second of every day, or not.

Don't worry, as soon as he is out of the picture the media will be peddling us stories about the BRAVE RESISTANCE REPUBLICANS who kept him in check and how it was all their work that things turned out OK.

The media is dying to run stories about how Republicans were right all along. They'll spend equally as much time on the handful of Democrats who openly supported whatever the bullshit of the day is as every Republican who supported it.


You know the meme about how 'Who was president in 2020?' remains the biggest IQ test in modern politics?

There is a real chance 'Was Trump was a Democrat or a Republican?' will be the biggest IQ test in 2028.

 

[Locke]

No, it'll have to be sooner. Realistically I think the knives will start coming out after midterms. Trump is very clearly not going to be in any shape to run in 2028. Should be unconstitutional but we don't even need to have that argument because if he's even still alive he's barely going to be able to talk. So assuming Republicans want a Presidential candidate in 2028, they are going to need to have a primary, and if they're going to have to have a primary, the candidates need to start positioning themselves after midterms. Based on what the Dems are doing with Newsom and a few others quasi-running already it might already be getting to be late for it. Massie is probably going to take a crack at it, and he's willing to throw Trump under the bus. If no one else will then he'll be running effectively unopposed because he'll be the only one willing to acknowledge that a post-Trump world will happen.

Possibly?

But I for one wouldn't bet on the America public having a good long term memory.

 

[Locke]

The President of Iran made his own statement the other day that the military completely ignored. Does the speaker have any actual authority either?

Which military?

The de facto hierarchy in Iran is: IRGC > Supreme Leader > Guardian Council > Legislature > Regular Military

 

[Locke]

That's probably why they're deploying mines.

Also control doesn't work on tabletop rules where you have to park a unit there to maintain control.

As long as shipping companies, or their insurers, think the risk is high they'll just sit it out.

The oil isn't going anywhere (unless sunk). Which means the companies moving the oil get to profit from oil prices being higher when exploiting their other sources.


SA has an export terminal on the Red Sea, it has less capacity, but it can do. That means Kuwait, Iraq and UAE are bottled up. Political pressure would come form those countries. But they're also extremely wealthy with huge sovereign wealth funds. They can wait out a crisis and then slowly turn back on the flow to recover losses at higher prices.

Iran is already sanctioned and Israel and the US have been blowing up their oil infrastructure. They certainly don't give a fuck.

CNN claims from sources that Pentagon and NSC underestimated how much Iran would go after shutting down the Straits of Hormuz.

Really? Even lay people with a passing interest in geopolitics heard that this was something they would do. This is a regime which beats up teen girls for not dressing a certain way.

I hope the intel community and military intelligence were telling them this was likely to happen.

In fact the intel community said that they weren't going to get rid of the regime, even if they killed Khameni and a couple of layers of leaders, just with air strikes.

Netanyahu has tried to get several presidents to attack Iran, including Trump himself in the first term but he had advisors talking him out of it.

Finally the dimwit is now old and barely present and Netanyahu along with shit stains like Graham probably got to him as well as Rubio talking him into Venezuela, which was "easy" with no casualties and not a lot of blowback.

That CNN claim smells like admin ass covering, as they were surprised. But I doubt the military was. If they were they all need to be fired.

Its been Iran's major geopolitical lever they can pull for 50 years.

 

[Locke]

He no longer cares about elections. He doesn't care if Republicans in Congress lose.

He only cares that Democrats don't win the House and launch more impeachments.

He seems to be motivated now by history and this was suppose to be a crowning achievement, overthrowing the Iranian regime, something no president accomplished, though none have bothered trying.

He and Netanyahu have the same plan:

If I deal with these long standing "issues" for my country, then they can't punish me for the massive list of crimes I have committed, I'll be too popular.

I do not even think Americans public realize how bad it is. Neither is the Congress.

Congress knows. They either are afraid of saying anything (Republican) or out of power an unable to effect anything (Democratic).

If Trump was genuinely scared of gas prices, or prices of anything, he wouldn't be doing...anything he's doing.

He assumed it would Venezuela Part Two. Trump thought if he got the leader they would suddenly play ball with him. This is why they didn't have have assets in place to protect shipping. Trump didn't think they would need them.

 

[Locke]

The financial markets are surprisingly calm, given the circumstances. It’s a real question of what will trigger the bloodbath.

This won’t be like April 2025 when there was a sharp drop in response to the first wave of tariffs, then a rebound and steady rise.

Never forget that most financial analysis is conducted by 25 year old kids chosen for their roles because they have the correct pedigree. And they got that pedigree by not rocking the boat, by never thinking outside of box or coloring outside of the lines. They're the rich kids from rich families who did what they were told.

They can't process anything "unusual" happening in the world.

 

[Locke]

Australia confirmed they won’t be sending any ships and the UK said they’ll send mine sweeping ships. Japan just said there are high hurdles to sending ships (basically, no), and South Korea said they’re considering the suggestion (a face saving stalling tactic, basically).

Israel isn’t being asked to send any ships AFAIK.

Last I heard these commitments were for after hostilities ended.

 

[Locke]

Dude is 100% at the age and mental capability where if he was a normal person he would get conned out of everything he owned by a Televangelist he saw while channel surfing on a TV.

Let’s check in and see how Operation: Plz Halp
Is going, shall we?
~snip~

Dude is getting taken in and conned by everyone around him in ways he doesn't even understand any more.

Hes the senile emperor doing whatever the last court eunuch whispered into his ear.

Some weeks that eunuch is Miller and we get an immigration surge. Sometimes its Navarro and we get tariffs. Sometimes its Mike Johnson and we get Trans Panic. Other times its Netanyahu and we get a war.

 

[Locke]

Okay. That’s the objective of Phase I and Phase II of any attack. So why am I hearing that the US is “losing” badly? It is, quite evidently, not.

Tactical vs Strategic.

The US + Israel will win virtually every engagement in the war. Tactical victory.

The US + Israel are failing to achieve any of their strategic goals.

Stated US+ Israel Strategic Goals:
1. Regime Change
2. Popular Uprising
3. Freedom of Navigation
4. End of Iranian Nuclear Program
5. End of Iranian irregular (missile, drone, terrorist) forces

Stated Iranian Strategic Goals:
1. Regime Survival
2. Retain Sovereignty
3. Raise oil prices


US + Israel is 0/5.

Iran is 3/3.

Now think about what NATO and friend's strategic goals for this thing are.

Now think about what Russian and Chinese goals for this thing are.

Stack up the sides, belligerent and fence sitter alike and see who is winning the strategic game.

 

[Locke]

Let’s put down a realistic timeline. We’re talking about transforming the region for the next century, and you’re declaring a strategic loss after less than three weeks during which the US has achieved every operational objective? Multiple news sources have already reported that preparations suggest this is likely to go on until September, which you don’t need to be a genius to see (as mentioned, a third carrier strike group is already on the way). And yes, this isn’t what Trump is saying… because, again, the average voter reads at a 6th grade level and barely makes it through a TikTok video. He’s speaking to the larger public, and you’re not the target audience.

Hezbollah is already taking serious losses, and those operations are just beginning now. This obviously is nowhere close to being over.


How many attacks has Hamas been carrying out lately? Do you think they have the capacity to pull of another attack like they did? If not, I’d consider that a success.

I'm not declaring a strategic loss, I'm just noting the score.

We can stretch the timeline out as long as you want.

It doesn't change the score.

Iran has the advantage of inertia and the status quo. The US + Israel is trying to force the change and took action to do so. The onus is on them to deliver on their strategic objectives.

Think about the attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure. If a popular uprising happens and they can't export oil they're fucked financially. It also removes any incentive for Iran to want the strait open. Its strategically counter productive.

This is also why things like civilian casualties are a huge fucking deal, beyond the simple morality of it. Blowing up 150 school girls hardens civilian resolve.

This is why competent military forces plan like crazy. So they don't go off and blow up random shit that doesn't achieve its strategic goals or maybe even counters is strategic goals.

The Israeli and American forces are not driven by competent people. They're driven by desperate heads of state trying to avoid jail time for their crimes and their drunken failson fuck ups like Hegseth. So they're lashing out and trying to create a big media show, but one that has little to no chance of achieving their stated strategic goals. They're trying to win likes on Twitter from fascist dipshits and high fives from dipshits who don't know any better, not achieve their strategic goals.

 

[Locke]

What Israel and the US is doing in Iran is that they are creating a new generation of anti-US/Israel hardliners in Iran.

In the US, if you look at polling among Gen Z voters, across the political divide, the recent Gaza war as basically resulted in a generation that largely distrust Israel's intentions. That will come to roost some day.

It turns out when the head of state has a primary motivations of avoiding prison for their laundry list of crimes they can act in stupid and short sighted ways that end up damaging the long term strategic interests of the country they govern!

Just imagine what kind of strategic blunders two of them working together to avoid prison could do is they put their heads together!

 

[Locke]

Looks like I errored in the strategic analysis:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/us-...rs-through-strait-of-hormuz-says-bessent.html

Iran has full control of the Strait. Its ships can go through.

Score another strategic point for Iran.

 

[Locke]

Looks like I errored in the strategic analysis:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/us-...rs-through-strait-of-hormuz-says-bessent.html

Iran has full control of the Strait. Its ships can go through.

Score another strategic point for Iran.

View: https://bsky.app/profile/goldwagnathan.bsky.social/post/3mh6zxhhup22s


Confirmation of the above. Vessels that are transiting the strait are requesting Iranian approval.

 

[Locke]

Forgive me if this was discussed already but: I keep seeing references to crude oil prices that "people" are "actually" paying as being in the neighborhood of $120-$130/barrel, when the official price is around $95. Included is the claim that the official price is intentionally being under-reported to avoid freaking out the public/markets. Can the official price be gamed like that? Who would have to be in on that?

The market is fairly transparent, but a lot of it depends on what exact price people are talking about.

Oil isn't perfectly fungible. The prices quoted are usually bench market rates, which is generally 30 days out delivery for a specific type of crude at a specific place. That is why you sometimes hear about "Brent crude" or "midlands crude".

Examples" https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Brent-Crude

 

[Locke]

I'm pretty sure that the post-Obama foreign policy history has demonstrated that "meritocracy" was more of an insider club than an actual trait of competence in Washington. See: Gaza, Afganistan, 2022 Ukraine under-arming, etc.

This is the rot are the core of all out institutions.

They hire based on pedigree, having the right name and going to the right school, then getting the right internships or clerkship or whatever.

Its all a clusterfuck of nepotism designed to look like meritocracy.

 

[Locke]

Turns out Iran has cards....

Global stocks, down. Gold/silver/miner, down. Treasuries, down. US soft power, gone. Iran customers still getting product. US military running out of interceptors. Stealth planes getting hit/shot down. Israel 'Iron Dome' seems more tin foil by the day. 200 bn request is 1 year of Iraq war funding but we are supposed to believe this war is won and over and oil prices are going to revert to normal? US experiencing a billion bucks in facility damage via retaliatory strikes at its gulf allies military sites who now are looking at 10s of billions of losses via LNG facility damage (maybe they should ask for that plane back?). Fertilizer prices going up right at planting season most likely leading to more inflation which will push up rates when the US is now 39 trillion in debt. US sailors rumored to have sabotaged their own aircraft carrier. Australian truckers warn of empty supermarkets due to spiking price of diesel.

Yup, this was very well thought out.

Now for the black swan I have heard thrown around - Israel false flag operation within the US to keep this going?

All because the president is implicated as a kiddy fiddler. MAGA! Do we need to say 'thank you'?

Lotta folks can not process that it is easier to destroy than create because they've spent their lives tearing down and destroying things and obviously they're the smartest and hardest working people so its much harder to destroy than create.

Peaceful international trade doesn't just happen, it happens because the world spent a lot of effort into making it happen because when it doesn't happen shit goes off the rail quickly.


Also, for those keeping score:

Iran has defacto control of The Strait and is rumored to be charging vessels for the privilege of transiting it safely.
The US has eased sanctions on Iranian oil to improve the market.

Iran has is now succeeding in their strategic goals and exceeding them in places.

I'm sure the US and Israeli strikes are changing a lot of soviet era hardware into scrap metal and killing a lot of people on the ground.

But the regime is in place, the Strait is under Iranian control and the war is only getting more unpopular in the US and the US is getting less popular abroad.

Even if the US largely dismantles the Iranian military does it matter? Who is going to invade them? Iraq is more or less friendly to them and an internal shitshow. Turkey doesn't anything to do with it. Afghanistan is busy with a low grade war against Pakistan. Turkmenistan wouldn't piss off Russia and Armenia and Azerbaijan are in the middle of their own cold to not-so-cold war.

None of the smaller gulf states could even dream of it and the Saudi military is the worlds most expensive Top Gun LARP program for princes. The idea of them mounting a multi-million person amphibious assault is comedic.

 

[Locke]

I was wrong. I said Iran was winning the war. My error was in the tense.

Iran has won the war.

The US has folded under the economic pressure Iran brought to bear. While no force of arms on the planet can touch the US, its desperately vain government will buckle if the people are feeling the referred pain of its warring.

Any other president would have stayed the course, but then any other president would have plotted a course and communicated it clearly. Only the current US govt is so lazy as to have started a war for no reason and ended it for the same.

It's like I said. Trump will end this war through pigeon politics.

The only real surprise here is that he's given a timeframe of five days. Usually it's two weeks.

They're winning to be sure, but it isn't over yet.

They can still win even harder, and probably will.

The US is rapidly immolating its credibility, withdrawing from bases and burning its money.

Sure. But think bigger and dumber. There are so many more ways the US can and probably will fuck up instead of just taking the small L.

 

[Locke]

The reason for looking at the S&P over the last year instead of the last month is that it tells you that this isn't lifesavings getting wiped out. It's not even gains from the last year. Otherwise, sure, down 4% over the last month.

Anyway, there has now been confirmation from Iranian diplomatic sources to Bloomberg that discussions are underway, for the people who trust the Iranian regime more. The obvious reason why they're not naming the person they're negotiating with: there's very likely an internal power struggle within Iran, and the faction that's negotiating is the one the US wants to see in power next.

In other news, Saudi Arabia has now expressed a willingness to join the strikes on Iran if Iran hits their power stations. And if the Saudis join, it's likely they will get support from other neighboring countries. Bahrain has drafted a UN resolution for a multi-national deployment to the Strait or Hormuz (though Russia likely to veto). None of this looks like the US losing influence over the region, and all looks like countries are seeing this as an opportunity to end the terror coming from Iran.

All indications is that the current discussions are about where to host discussions. These discussions are taking place through mediators. Trump said there was direct talks.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce35wke27ynt

CNBC news anchor Joe Kernen says he's just had a quick phone call with US President Donald Trump, who he reports says there have been "very intense discussions" with the Iranians.

Iran's foreign ministry has issued a statement, saying: "We deny what US President Donald Trump said regarding negotiations taking place between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran."

Amid conflicting reports about possible US-Iran negotiations, a senior Iranian foreign ministry official told the BBC's US partner CBS News: “We received points from the US through mediators and they are being reviewed."

CBS clarifies that this step was taken "as a potential precursor to talks", and that talks are not confirmed or under way.

We're at the "negotiating about negotiating stage". No one really knows what'll happen in the next few days and I'm not going to prognosticate on what a senile 80 year old will dream up next. Hes given a 5 day extension, but who knows who will get his ear and talk him into something.

This is the problem with having a president who is a pathological liar and engaged in a war with zero preparation. We don't know what is happening and we get conflicting reports. Though a detailed parse will show Iran's statements are the same, that there are no direct talks. Where as Trump can go from peace is about to break out to we're going to escalate or from Iran started the war to Obama started the war or from its about regime change to missile programs to nukes to oil in 5 minute press conference.

The Saudi's are playing Trump, MBS was one of the major backers of the war. Yeah, they want Iran gone, but they don't want to do it. They'll bluster and threaten, but do nothing. Even if KSA did enter the war their military would make WW1-WW2 Italian army look like the spartans.

This goes back to the "negotiate to negotiate" part. Right now everything is making threats because that is what authoritarian regimes do, they make threats about how if everyone doesn't give them what they want they'll totally pwn you. They're the 14 year old on XBox live, all talk.

This is usually because when a diplomatic solution is reached they can chest thump and say it was totally how badass they were, that is why the other guy backed down, WHICH THEY TOTALLY DID.

Just don't peak at the terms of the agreement.

 

[Locke]

Trump has benefited from three things to avoid consequences during his life:
1. Massive legal resource disparity with his counterparties.
2. Bankruptcy.
3. Being the default alternative to extremely flawed political candidates.

None of that applies here. You can't file bankruptcy to reset the price of oil, you can't sue oil into flowing, and he's holding the bag instead of throwing stones from the opposition. It's a narcissist's worst nightmare.

Hence the bluster and incoherent bullying/retreating - this is the equivalent of having arachnophobia and falling face-first into the basement of Big Bob's Huge Spider Emporium just before the door is locked and the proprietor takes a month off to visit family. You're going to flail around uncontrollably as an involuntary response.

You're missing his biggest asset: a compliant and willfully deceptive media that will frame or spin any story in a positive way for him to retain access.

If Trump was Jack the Ripper the NYT headlines would be "Trump challenges norms in White Chapel".


Also, if true, mega LOL

The New York Times, Reuters news agency and Israel's Channel 12 are reporting that the US has handed over a 15-point plan to Iran, via Pakistan, which earlier offered to host peace talks between the warring countries.

The outlets are citing unnamed sources. The BBC has not seen the document and is working to verify the reports.

Channel 12 lists some of the demands the US has reportedly made to Iran, including that the Strait of Hormuz is open and constitutes a free maritime zone. It also details what Iran would reportedly receive if it were to accept the plan, including the removal of sanctions.

Its looking like the Obama deal.

I wonder if Iran will play hardball and literally make them call it a return to the Obama deal, just to be a dick.

 

[Locke]

That would be a minimum ask, right? Israel/USA turn a cold/small war into a hot/bigger war. Iran has suffered a lot. Honestly, any agreement would also be treated as temporarily from all sides, as none has any credit (Iran has continuous support operations against Israel, Israel and USA attack Iran while negotiating).

No one knows, other than the principles and whoever Pakistan leaks this stuff to.

Its real, real debatable who is even in charge for both sides.

 

[Locke]

AP is reporting that 1000 soldiers of the 82nd Airborne Division are being deployed to the Middle East. These soldiers are trained to parachute into hostile areas and secure strategic positions.

If a boots-on-the-ground assault is coming, its going to happen soon.

I wasn't joking earlier when I said the Hegseth doctrine was "Light Infantry + War Crimes = Victory"

A lot of the right wing brain has been completely cooked by "Spec Ops" pod caster/grifters and Call Of Duty to think a single elite mlg operator is worth a thousand GIs.

In a lot of ways its pure cope from Vietnam and GWOT where the myth of the US refusing to take off the gloves in vietnam/GWOT and the general guys being more interested in surviving their draft tour than being ELITE OPERATORS is why things didn't go well. It couldn't be that the wars were unwinnable because the US choose strategic goals that were impossible to achieve militarily. No, the problem was the US military was ahem "stabbed in the back" by corrupt politicians.

The degradation of US Special Forces is probably worth its own thread because there is some really fucked up things that happened during GWOT, but the short version is they rapidly expanded, lowered standards and ended up with multiple drug smuggling rings and torture camps and massive drug/steroid problems. And that is just the stuff that has publicly leaked.

background links:
https://secretaryrofdefenserock.substack.com/p/the-triumph-of-the-operator
https://secretaryrofdefenserock.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-american-bushido

No, really its a marketing gimick
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fort_Bragg_Cartel

 

[Locke]

No quarter means murder those who try to surrender. That is both a war crime and not a way to get to an end of a war because once the enemy knows you'll kill them if they surrender, they will fight to the death.

This is the practical reason why the US has, at least during WW2, tried to treat POWs extremely well.

If a guy in a trench is staring down the coming attack and he views surrender as being tortured and executed he will fight to the last. If he thinks surrender means he gets a hot meal and 6 months at a boring summer camp he is probably surrendering long before the fight.

Treating POWs well isn't woke, weak or liberal craptrap or whatever the word of the decade is. Its good policy for winning wars.

 

[Locke]

After he is dead I think they will just move on to the next Republican and all pretend like they never supported Trump or his outlandish ideas in the first place. There is precedence for this with the Bush Jr -> Trump transition. Just like if this war goes on for 5 years they will blame whoever is in office next for it.

My favorite political poll of all time was a poll of for the 2004 Presidential election. But it was taken in eh.. '07 or early '08 at the low point of Bush's popularity. It showed that only 30% of people voted for him.

People are real, real good at selectively editing their memory.

 

[Locke]

Exclusive: U.S. can only confirm about a third of Iran's missile arsenal destroyed, sources say​

Mostly unsurprising given the capabilities of both sides. Iran is severely degraded, but obviously not disarmed, nor incapable of domestic manufacturing. We'll keep bombing, and they'll keep squeaking missiles through defenses here and there. Until we totally don't put those boots on the ground, anyway.

Iran knew the US + Israel operated and so they dispersed their missiles and drones at thousands of small sites over a massive country instead of filling a warehouse with them.

This is what their military has been planning for since the 90s probably.

Nation States are not obliged to fight set piece battles.

 

[Locke]

It could be viewed as a type of asset allocation or risk mitigation. Meanwhile, the US and its proxies focused on expensive military assets that are few in number, and as is becoming more clear, less-than-invincible. The results of this conflict could end up as a cautionary tale for future historians.

Its almost certainly going down as the American Suez Crisis moment.