War with...Iran?

[AverageDutchGuy]

I can confirm from personal experience (6 years Navy) that an over-extended deployment will cause accidents and other issues with the crew. Sewage problems? That's going to have a huge impact, life on ship is rough enough!

(Not an actual quote) = "It's okay, they can just wear diapers. I've got no problems with it" - Donald J. Trump, probably.

 

[Welcome to Darwin]

Hasn't the USN already had a string of issues & collisions in the last few years at least partly due to undermanning / overstretching the crew?

"The beatings will continue until morale improves."

 

[Bardon]

Hasn't the USN already had a string of issues & collisions in the last few years at least partly due to undermanning / overstretching the crew?

Most navies that underman/overstretch have had issues, it just looks worse on the US side due to the sheer size of the USN.

 

[concernUrsus]

Most navies that underman/overstretch have had issues, it just looks worse on the US side due to the sheer size of the USN.

USA Navy also have a lot of commitment given its size. My understand is Navy has less people but with same or more responsibility now. The aging ships are also not help the issues.

For "war with Iran" though, I assume USA would still prefer using group base instead of aircraft carrier?

 

[goates]

For "war with Iran" though, I assume USA would still prefer using group base instead of aircraft carrier?

The US would want to use both. Some of the air bases in the Middle East are big and well equipped. However, being fixed in place, they're much easier for Iran to hit back at. An aircraft carrier, on the other hand, would be harder to both find and hit. In addition, some countries have said they will deny the use of bases in their countries and use of their airspace to the US. Something an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea could get around.

 

[goates]

The American build-up continues with F-22s moving to Israel and F-16s to Diego Garcia. As well, the US has pulled out non-essential personnel from their Beirut embassy. There are also concerns war with Iran, especially a prolonged one, could severely deplete US SAM stockpiles, which wouldn't be good for Ukraine.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/f...t-diego-garcia-f-22s-forward-deploy-to-israel

 

[Technarch]

The US would want to use both. Some of the air bases in the Middle East are big and well equipped. However, being fixed in place, they're much easier for Iran to hit back at. An aircraft carrier, on the other hand, would be harder to both find and hit. In addition, some countries have said they will deny the use of bases in their countries and use of their airspace to the US. Something an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea could get around.

There are several aspects to the problem. Many U.S. bases in the region are either in range of lots of Iranian missiles, or have been banned by their host countries from use to support offensive operations against Iran. I fully expect this administration to ignore those bans for Diego Garcia and Muwaffaq Salti, which will piss off the UK and Jordan respectively. On top of that the Jordanian air base is completely full--all available space is taken up by USAF aircraft. Incirlik was not much better.

Iran is very large, and parts of it are hard to reach when there are no bases available north or east of it. Plus if you want to be able to respond to developments quickly you need a base that's close by to reduce turnaround time, which means carriers. I'd expect the crew of the Lincoln to be pretty busy if/when the SHTF.

 

[wco81]

I can confirm from personal experience (6 years Navy) that an over-extended deployment will cause accidents and other issues with the crew. Sewage problems? That's going to have a huge impact, life on ship is rough enough!

Read a tweet that the Ford had to have an emergency docking in Crete.

The long deployment is almost causing a mutiny and there are suggestions that sailors are sabotaging the sewage system because of the long deployment.

 

[Alexander]

Read a tweet that the Ford had to have an emergency docking in Crete.

The long deployment is almost causing a mutiny and there are suggestions that sailors are sabotaging the sewage system because of the long deployment.

That's what happens when you move an aircraft carrier immediately from one soap box thread to another without any maintenance or downtime between.

 

[Alexander]

War with Iran is incredibly unpopular with US voters, even more so with rank and file Democrats, but popular with Democratic billionaire donors, so Democratic leadership is spiking legislative attempts to stop the headlong rush to war:

[journalist Aída Chávez] said a senior Democratic congressional staffer told her it’s “pretty clear” Democratic leadership is working to “delay or potentially sideline” the vote on the war powers resolution. “If you’ve been around the Hill, this is a familiar playbook,” the staffer said.​

​

“Leadership rarely comes out and says they oppose these votes outright, because they know the underlying issue is popular with the base,” said the staffer, who works on foreign policy. “Instead, you see process concerns, timing objections, and caucus-unity arguments used to slow things down or keep members off the record. We’ve seen the same approach on past war powers votes and foreign policy amendments that clash with the national security elite consensus.”​

​

Democratic leaders have largely tempered their criticisms of Trump’s buildup for what would be potentially the most consequential military action taken by the US in decades.​

Top Dems Reportedly Working to Sabotage Bill to Stop Trump War With Iran

 

[Technarch]

Top Dems Reportedly Working to Sabotage Bill to Stop Trump War With Iran

Infuriating but not surprising. Really seems like Netanyahu is calling the shots in DC.

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

The long deployment is almost causing a mutiny and there are suggestions that sailors are sabotaging the sewage system because of the long deployment.

No sabotage needed. It's a different system, teething problems can be expected. Especially since the problems are systemic to the design.
From reporting last month:
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/15/nx-s...ewage-problems-on-board-the-navys-new-carrier

SUMMERS: So, Steve, what's the problem?

WALSH: Well, in a word, the toilets. Back in July, I was contacted by the mother of a sailor on board USS Ford. She was concerned about sanitary conditions on the carrier, which had just deployed from its home port in Norfolk in June. A number of toilets were out of commission, and she wanted to know why. NPR has obtained documents that include a series of emails that detail the ship's effort to grapple with the breakdowns.

SUMMERS: I mean, that's a reasonable question, and it seems like a serious problem, especially with the Ford being a part of this military buildup, as we mentioned, as the administration applies pressure on Venezuela.

WALSH: That's right. So that just makes it all the more urgent. To be blunt, it's hard for 4,600 sailors to spend weeks and months on a ship without fully functioning toilets. USS Ford is the U.S.' newest aircraft carrier. It cost $13 billion, and it includes a number of new systems that hadn't been fully tested on Navy warships. The vacuum sewage system was borrowed in part from the cruise ship industry. It uses less water. But cruise ships are very different from warships, and the crew is struggling to keep up with repairs.

SUMMERS: So that mother that you heard from wasn't imagining things. Seriously, how bad is it?

WALSH: It's pretty bad. According to an email from the engineering department sent in March, sailors were working 19 hours a day to track down and fix leaks. The email references 205 calls in less than four days. Toilets, which the Navy calls heads, can go down for hours in parts of the ship. Once the carrier finally left Norfolk in June, the problem seemed to have gotten worse. In July and August, there are increasingly heated discussions between leadership and the engineering department. Since it's a vacuum system, a problem with one head can cause all of the toilets in that part of the ship to lose suction, making it difficult for the maintenance crews to isolate a problem. The crews find everything from T-shirts to a four-foot piece of rope clogging the system. But the most common problem seems to be a part of the back of the toilet that comes loose.

Whonwoukd begrudge a sailor their traditional indulgence of lightly-fried rope from the mess?

 

[AdrianS]

Infuriating but not surprising. Really seems like Netanyahu is calling the shots in DC.

It's astonishing the extent that US politicians in both sides are owned by Israel.

 

[mpat]

War with Iran is incredibly unpopular with US voters, even more so with rank and file Democrats, but popular with Democratic billionaire donors, so Democratic leadership is spiking legislative attempts to stop the headlong rush to war:

[journalist Aída Chávez] said a senior Democratic congressional staffer told her it’s “pretty clear” Democratic leadership is working to “delay or potentially sideline” the vote on the war powers resolution. “If you’ve been around the Hill, this is a familiar playbook,” the staffer said.​

​

“Leadership rarely comes out and says they oppose these votes outright, because they know the underlying issue is popular with the base,” said the staffer, who works on foreign policy. “Instead, you see process concerns, timing objections, and caucus-unity arguments used to slow things down or keep members off the record. We’ve seen the same approach on past war powers votes and foreign policy amendments that clash with the national security elite consensus.”​

​

Democratic leaders have largely tempered their criticisms of Trump’s buildup for what would be potentially the most consequential military action taken by the US in decades.​

Top Dems Reportedly Working to Sabotage Bill to Stop Trump War With Iran

I wonder about the motivations here. While war with Iran is incredibly stupid, it is less destructive to the traditional order in the west than attacking Greenland - or Canada. Are they thinking that it is better to let Trump play in a sandbox on the other side of the world and that once he has failed, he is less likely to take another swing at it?

 

[karolus]

No sabotage needed. It's a different system, teething problems can be expected. Especially since the problems are systemic to the design.
From reporting last month:
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/15/nx-s...ewage-problems-on-board-the-navys-new-carrier


Whonwoukd begrudge a sailor their traditional indulgence of lightly-fried rope from the mess?

T-shirts and rope? That’s pretty negligent, at the very least. Were this a civilian building, and not a ship, some plumbers would be making bank.

 

[Technarch]

T-shirts and rope?

Kinda makes you wonder if some sailors on board were unhappy with being party to the illegal murder of random people on boats.

 

[Alexander]

I wonder about the motivations here. While war with Iran is incredibly stupid, it is less destructive to the traditional order in the west than attacking Greenland - or Canada. Are they thinking that it is better to let Trump play in a sandbox on the other side of the world and that once he has failed, he is less likely to take another swing at it?

They (Democratic leadership) want the US to go to war with Iran (because that is what their billionaire check-writers want) AND they want Trump/GOP to be the ones to do it and suffer the political blowback of a humiliating debacle with disastrous consequences for both Iranians and Americans.

I don't think Canada or Greenland come into it. .02

 

[concernUrsus]

Am I worry too much that war with Iran may affect the oil supply to China, and that may trigger a much bigger war?

 

[karolus]

Don’t think the Chinese need to embroil themselves in a conflict. They can sit back as America self-immolates.

 

[Technarch]

Don’t think the Chinese need to embroil themselves in a conflict. They can sit back as America self-immolates.

Close to 20% of China's oil imports come from Iran. That could encourage embroiling.

 

[Shavano]

Kinda makes you wonder if some sailors on board were unhappy with being party to the illegal murder of random people on boats.

500% more likely they're just pissed off about extended deployment.

 

[Shavano]

Don’t think the Chinese need to embroil themselves in a conflict. They can sit back as America self-immolates.

It could become a giant problem for them. They need to get oil from somewhere and Iran might have the capacity to shut down oil shipping out of the Persian Gulf.

OTOH it might accelerate de-carbonization of the world economy.

 

[Soriak]

The long deployment is almost causing a mutiny and there are suggestions that sailors are sabotaging the sewage system because of the long deployment.

I'm skeptical that this is true. If you are a sailor sabotaging your own ship so that it is out of commission for a military operation, I suspect that's going to end very poorly. Are people really going to risk lengthy imprisonment (quick google search suggests even the death penalty) to get out of a longer deployment? If that's the state of the navy, then the problems are much bigger than this operation. More likely is that aircraft carriers are complex systems and stuff breaks that needs fixing.

 

[GMBigKev]

It's astonishing the extent that US politicians in both sides are owned by Israel.

Israel or Russia...

 

[karolus]

I'm skeptical that this is true. If you are a sailor sabotaging your own ship so that it is out of commission for a military operation, I suspect that's going to end very poorly. Are people really going to risk lengthy imprisonment (quick google search suggests even the death penalty) to get out of a longer deployment? If that's the state of the navy, then the problems are much bigger than this operation. More likely is that aircraft carriers are complex systems and stuff breaks that needs fixing.

The rub here is that it would be well nigh impossible to track down the perpetrators. Doubt that the heads are under camera surveillance, for obvious reasons.

This is far different from workers setting fire to ships in for refit or maintenance, or causing some other deliberate damage that’s more easy to track down.

 

[karolus]

500% more likely they're just pissed off about extended deployment.

True.

And the overworking of Navy ship personnel has been well-known for some time. It’s resulted in some high-profile collisions of Arleigh Burke destroyers, to cite but one example. Stretching people on extended deployments is bound to cause issues.

 

[mpat]

Close to 20% of China's oil imports come from Iran. That could encourage embroiling.

Much worse is the fact that Iran might close the Straits of Hormuz and cut off a lot more traffic than just their own oil exports.

 

[goates]

The UK has pulled their Tehran embassy staff out of the country. With Iran not agreeing to everything Trump wants, I'm not sure there is an off ramp any more.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c309vz0z893o

 

[wco81]

I briefly scanned an article which said that Trump may want Israel to start the attacks on Iran, rather than US.

So he wants to be seen as being led by Netanyahu? HMV, follow his master's voice?

 

[Anacher]

I briefly scanned an article which said that Trump may want Israel to start the attacks on Iran, rather than US.

So he wants to be seen as being led by Netanyahu? HMV, follow his master's voice?

Agree to my terms or Israel will attack you!

 

[thunderous_funker]

I briefly scanned an article which said that Trump may want Israel to start the attacks on Iran, rather than US.

So he wants to be seen as being led by Netanyahu? HMV, follow his master's voice?

That's geopolitically insane. What will they call it? Coalition of God's Chosen? Operation Apocalypse? Crusade IX?

I seriously have to start googling for countries that will accept middle-aged, middle-class Americans as asylum seekers or refugees. This is a nightmare.

 

[goates]

I briefly scanned an article which said that Trump may want Israel to start the attacks on Iran, rather than US.

So he wants to be seen as being led by Netanyahu? HMV, follow his master's voice?

Not sure how accurate or smart that is.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration reportedly would like to see Israel attack first to give the U.S. political cover.

“There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action,” Politico stated.

“The argument in Israel is that this would be a terrible strategic mistake, as it creates a lose-lose situation: if the strike fails, Israel would be blamed for dragging the United States into the conflict,” a high-ranking IDF official told us. “Israel would be accused of being a warmonger, a source of destruction and regional war, rather than a country seeking to reach an agreement. Israel could find itself completely isolated. This reflects the general discourse on the issue.”

This issue should be taken with a degree of skepticism since much of the behind-the-scenes reporting has been highly inaccurate.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/u...val-off-israel-comes-as-negotiations-grind-on

 

[sword_9mm]

That's geopolitically insane. What will they call it? Coalition of God's Chosen? Operation Apocalypse? Crusade IX?

I seriously have to start googling for countries that will accept middle-aged, middle-class Americans as asylum seekers or refugees. This is a nightmare.

Mexico. You can go fight the cartels.

Really what we should be doing. Offering Mexico help and leaving Iran alone/only assisting with humanitarian aide or whatever. I guess we don't do that any more.

 

[Alexander]

Not sure how accurate or smart that is.



https://www.twz.com/news-features/u...val-off-israel-comes-as-negotiations-grind-on

There was an article a couple of days ago saying Israeli intelligence believes that the US only has enough munitions for about a week of attacking Iran. That could be a reason the US would want IDF to go first.


EDIT - here you go:

But Israeli intelligence has concluded that even with the imminent arrival of the USS Gerald R Ford later this week, the US has military capacity to sustain just a four to five day intense aerial assault, or a week of lower-intensity strikes, an Israeli intelligence official told the FT.​

https://archive.ph/vf9Ll#selection-2385.0-2385.288

 

[Shavano]

There was an article a couple of days ago saying Israeli intelligence believes that the US only has enough munitions for about a week of attacking Iran. That could be a reason the US would want IDF to go first.

EDIT - here you go:

But Israeli intelligence has concluded that even with the imminent arrival of the USS Gerald R Ford later this week, the US has military capacity to sustain just a four to five day intense aerial assault, or a week of lower-intensity strikes, an Israeli intelligence official told the FT.​

https://archive.ph/vf9Ll#selection-2385.0-2385.288

I am not so sure I trust either the knowledge or the honesty of Israeli intelligence officials who missed the Oct 6 attacks and lied every day about Gaza.

 

[Technarch]

I just don't see us not attacking Iran at this point. It would be the biggest TACO so far. Utterly humiliating for the US.

Of course, going ahead with the attack might also be humiliating for the US. Iran has a fuckton of missiles. The DOD does not have a fuckton of Patriots and SM-3s.

No love for Iran's leadership but there's a reason saner administrations didn't try to pick a fight with them.

 

[thunderous_funker]

No love for Iran's leadership but there's a reason saner administrations didn't try to pick a fight with them.

Previous administrations lacked the Warrior Ethos and girls and fatties were holding them back!

If only Claude wasn't stubbornly refusing to discount collateral damage, blowback and global repercussions from gross violations of international law from the weak ass models it keeps spitting out, we would have already started.

 

[goates]

What can possibly go wrong with an attitude like this:

Asked if there is a risk that an attack on Iran could turn into a long conflict in the Middle East, the president said “When there’s war, there is a risk in anything, both good and bad. “I’ve had tremendous luck myself.”

What will he do when an American plane gets shot down in Iran? Or if Iran manages to take out several American aircraft on the ground? Will that be enough for him to release the rest of the Epstein files??

https://www.twz.com/news-features/t...itizens-are-urged-to-leave-israel-immediately

 

[herko]

Silly me, I thought the President of The United States of America told the nation that the Iranian nuclear facilities had been completely obliterated.

I guess the Iranians stood up completely new facilities from scratch in a few months and made progress. Remarkable!

 

[wco81]

Israel starts it. Reportedly targeting Iranian leadership.

Called it pre-emptive strike because of expected Iranian retaliation.

Israeli source cited by CNN says they coordinated with the US.