War with...Iran?

[Bardon]

The Gulfstream aircraft were already in the process of being certified, so he was going to get it anyways. There was zero reason to throw a hissy fit. All Trump's antics do is reinforce the need to further disengage with the US in the long run.

As for why they haven't been certified, these aircraft have a new fuel system so Transport Canada and the FAA wanted more testing to properly verify it. The FAA gave Gulfstream a temporary certification while the testing is being done, while Transport Canada decided to wait for the results. Nothing illegal or malicious.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airfra...fuel-icing-certification-rules/156570.article



https://globalnews.ca/news/11645326/donald-trump-bombardier-gulfstream-tariffs/

Yeah, why would Canada of all places be concerned about possible icing in a new system on an airplane? /S

Seriously, it's a no-brainer.

 

[Bardon]

Military brass outlines risks ion war with Iraq, in particular low supplies of interceptor missiles and extended deployment for some naval assets which could lead to accidents.



WSJ article in Apple News:

https://apple.news/AE89CXFYkQza3C4VncfFp0g

I can confirm from personal experience (6 years Navy) that an over-extended deployment will cause accidents and other issues with the crew. Sewage problems? That's going to have a huge impact, life on ship is rough enough!

 

[Bardon]

Hasn't the USN already had a string of issues & collisions in the last few years at least partly due to undermanning / overstretching the crew?

Most navies that underman/overstretch have had issues, it just looks worse on the US side due to the sheer size of the USN.

 

[Bardon]

Hegseth: "no nation building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise"

They hate democracy, we see that here in the USA every day, but no nation-building either? In other words, just leave Iran to implode into conflict? There is no plan here, they want to break something and not own it but it's too late for that. Trump and the MAGA administration started this war and now MAGA owns it.

The line that I found truly frightening in Hegseth's speech was "No stupid rules of engagement"

That statement should be terrifying to anyone with a conscience.

 

[Bardon]

“Free World?”

Anyone paying attention knows that with Trump, nothing is free and the terms of purchase can change without notice.

And only the US thinks that your President is the leader of the free world.

 

[Bardon]

This is a serious distortion of the specific poll, to the point of being outright lies.
The poll didn't ask where on the political spectrum the responders were, either.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...26-of-arabs-majority-support-toppling-regime/

"Destroying" a country as large and populous as Iran isn't something anyone wants, clearly irrelevant, and something no poll asked.
And Lapid only talked about the destruction of missile and attack UAV production, not the economy in general.

Mate, it's been proven multiple times here that they did indeed ask where the responders fit on the political spectrum. Maybe time for an apology for that "outright lies" statement?

 

[Bardon]

Because, of course, the brothers, sister's, and children of those you snuffed out obviously won't his a grudge and would never consider hostile actions because you murdered their families...

Well that hasn't stopped Israel over the past several decades so why would they change now?

 

[Bardon]

"Now" is the wrong timeframe. Israel can go on being a genocidal apartheid state as long as the US can give it the weapons and diplomatic cover to do so. But that situation is coming to an end, and Russia, China, or the EU will be far less likely to and capable of propping them up. A minority population of racists on a small strip of land will find themselves in a precarious position.

What makes you believe that the USA is going to step back from Israel? They're full-on asking "how high" when Netanyahu says "jump" right now.

 

[Bardon]

TPP was deeply unpopular with the broader public by the time she opposed it, though Clinton had to be basically bullied into opposing it -- it's exactly the kind of thing she would've advocated for. Broad trade deal, basic rules, etc etc, but there was a lot of concern about more offshoring, not enough teeth on the enforcement mechanisms, and so forth.

But yeah, Trump's certainly not a willing agent of China. He's a willing agent of Russia and unwilling one of China, he's just too stupid to see the latter. Culturally, to the degree that he has any, he's basically just a wannabe Central Asian republic strongman.

The TPP actually got a lot better once the USA was out of it. In particular the insistance that US law prevail over other signatories and that USA pharmaceutical rulings be applied to other nations - it was a huge issue in Australia when the TPP was first being hammered out. No way would we give up our PBS in order to prop up USA pharma profit margins.

 

[Bardon]

I am beyond fucking tired of people intentionally conflating "support for Israel" with "supporting Israel committing happy-time genocide".

You may well be tired of it but it's still a fact:

1. The government of Israel is actively and deliberately conducting genocide.
2. Supporting the government of Israel is supporting that genocide, or at the very least demonstrating that it's not a deal-breaker for you.

There's no other way to look at it, if you're being honest.
Note that there is a HUGE difference between "The government of Israel" and Judaism. No-one with more than two functioning brain cells is blaming all Jews for the actions of Israel.

As for the rest, I dispute that this is wholly a religious war:

Netanyahu is in it to keep out of jail and bring about Greater Israel IE a real estate grab.
Trump is in it to keep out of jail and Be A Winner so Everyone Will Love Him IE an Oil Grab.
Iran (Don't get me wrong, I do not support Iran and their gov't has committed atrocities) was twice bombed while in the middle of negotiations and I can't honestly blame them for striking back.

 

[Bardon]

I admit I haven't actually heard him speak but just the transcript makes Sec Hegseth sound like a complete juvenile asshole.

Then there's this gem from Hegseth: "The Straits of Hormuz are open for shipping and the only thing prohibiting this is Iran shooting at shipping".
“It is open for transit, should Iran not do that,”

So yeah. It's open, if you discount Iran shooting up ships who go there without their permission.

In what definition does this count as "open"????

 

[Bardon]

Our navy is supposed to be on a rotating 1/3 schedule. One third on mission, one third in reserve, and one third in for maintenance.

Almost every ship is behind on maintenance. Extrapolate as you will.

As a former Navy man, that's a recipe for disaster. So many things can go wrong on a ship at sea and there's a limit to what even the most skilled crew can repair/replace before it needs a full refit/overhaul.

 

[Bardon]

30 hours to put out a laundry fire. 600 servicemen sleeping on floors and tables. If they're lucky the toilets are working that day.

Ford's been deployed 10 months now, there will be something else the longer they stay deployed. Irony is they're not even accomplishing anything. Three carriers plus a marine amphib assault carrier are just floating around not doing anything, not even providing security or escort duty. What an absolute shitshow.

And that will absolutely KILL morale. Being forced to stay away from your loved ones well after the initial deployment date and knowing that you're accomplishing nothing? That you're only there for a senile old man's ego?

It's hard enough being at sea for a long deployment, but one with no reason? Watch conditions on board deteriorate at a rapidly increasing speed.

 

[Bardon]

Trump has claimed they’ve sunk all of Iran’s navy and mine laying boats, that Iranian USVs are AI fake news, and that they’ve virtually destroyed the rest of Iran’s military, therefore it should be safe for the US to lead the way and run a couple destroyers through the strait, right?

It's so safe that Trump should stand at the bow of the flagship when they traverse the Strait!

 

[Bardon]

I'll go back to what I said in one of the various threads after Trump won, as far as the majority of Europe is concerned, the fact America voted him in once is bad, but then you then did it again means there is a high probability a Trump like candidate getting in to the White House again, and thus Europe is making moves to make sure they won't have to rely on America again.

Canada, Australia and a bunch of other countries are right there with Europe!

 

[Bardon]

It’s time for one of the other NATO leaders or all together to tell Trump that escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz is utterly pointless. To so so would be to treat the symptoms, whereas what is needed is to cure the sickness, i.e. to persuade the Iranians to stop their blockade.

There are two ways to do that: to agree a peace deal or to undertake a full-scale invasion and not lose. The latter would be impossible and would return in massive casualties, both US troops and Iranian civilians as well as troops.

The only answer therefore is to stop the war, but Trump and Hegseth have no idea how to do that, never having thought about or planned for the consequences of their stupid actions.

What would that accomplish?

Trump has made it eminently clear that he has no interest in listening to anyone, much less dirty furriners whose only role (in what passes for his mind) is to bow down to his every whim.

Many of the NATO leaders have already said that this is pointless, illegal and that they won't be helping either with the war or being sacrificial targets IE escorting ships through the Strait.

 

[Bardon]

Dropsite News report claims that Trump administration has reached out to Iran to see if there was a way out, like some agreement which would make Trump look like a winner and re-open the Strait of Hormuz.



https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/iran-war-trump-witkoff-araghchi

Iranians have not answered.

If they think they've been cornered, that US and Israel won't stop until they've killed thousands of leaders and loyalists, they might pretend to want to make a deal with the Great Satan.

OTOH, there may be millions of loyalists who may turn on any leader who is seen as bending the knee to US and Israel. Remember, this is a regime which has thugs going around beating young girls unconscious for not covering themselves enough.

If they think Netanyahu is going to keep coming for them, they may decide to do as much damage on their way down, probably while they still have enough weapons left.

Given that the last 2 times Iran has sat down at the negotiating table with the USA they've been bombed by the USA partway through the negotiations, they'd be insane to come to the table for a third time.