War with...Iran?

[NewNinetyNine]

I'd need more context to say protesting outside of synagogues is problematic. Does the synagogue support Israel, does the rabbi? If so, that seems like a good reason to protest there.

If it's the protests I'm thinking of in the tri-state area, the sites were selling off West Bank land, triggering protests.

Edit: https://newjerseymonitor.com/2025/0...ro-palestinian-groups-over-synagogue-scuffle/

They were at the West Orange synagogue that night to protest an event promoting the sale of property in Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. Such events have sparked protests across the region, with critics alleging the settlements are an illegal impediment to peace.

Monday’s complaint alleges event organizer Moshe Glick intended to host the event in his home but moved it to the synagogue when protestors indicated they would gather outside his house. About 50 protestors assembled at an intersection near his home, then marched to the synagogue when they heard the event had been moved, the complaint says.

Edit2: Also NYC https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/04/trump-church-protests

The proposals were a response to recent demonstrations outside two New York synagogues, both of which were holding events to promote illegal settlements in the West Bank and property sales in Israel.

 

[Ecmaster76]

The was an occupation. Hundreds of thousands of US soldiers with boots on the ground.

For reference, that's of a country a fraction of the size of Iran, and an occupation force roughly the size of the active duty US Army today.

I think it would take much more than that to successfully occupy Iran.

The regime change occurred before the occupation.

 

[wrylachlan]

What exactly do you think goes into a shahed that makes it so difficult to manufacture? Other than the explosives your favorite "builds stuff" youtuber could easily do it.

The main Shahed (there are lots of models) is 11 feet across and 8 feet long and weighs 400 lbs. Can it be manufactured in many places? Sure. But it’s not a “Hamad puts it together in his garage” type artifact as the post I was responding to implied. This is a major piece of equipment that requires many precision parts be precisely fitted together - this isn’t a drone you put together on your workbench with an arduino.

Any country that expects to be attacked by a larger country is obviously going to disperse their forces so they're not easy to take out in a handful of locations. What, you think Sweden builds the Gripen to take off from highways in case Russia attacks, but it never occurred to Iran to disperse their forces?

Read the actual words I wrote. I did not say that they were not dispersed. Of fucking course they are. I said they were not dispersed in ones and twos throughout the country, which I stand by. They are warehoused in many many warehouses throughout the country colocated with personnel who know how to use them. I think the likelihood is high that there will be stashes that we don’t find for a long time. But the bulk of these drones will be destroyed on the ground and not in ones and twos.

 

[informationsuperhighway]

Iraq having nationwide blackouts. Looks like Trump admin forgot that Iraq gets 40% of its power from Iran. Opps.

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region...lls-citizens-to-leave-immediately-3215617?s=1

 

[Snark218]

I hope Americans are ready for 100 dollar oil and boots on the ground which is going to happen period. There is no choice in the matter. I say 5 weeks from now.

I think there's choice in the matter in that those deciding to do such a thing could blink, but given the tone and tenor of official statements, I fully expect a Mission Accomplished banner before June.

 

[Snark218]

Iraq having nationwide blackouts. Looks like Trump admin forgot that Iraq gets 40% of its power from Iran. Opps.

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region...lls-citizens-to-leave-immediately-3215617?s=1

Forgetting implies a fact was ever learned.

 

[SedsAtArs]

Forgetting implies a fact was ever learned.

Or cared about.

 

[Welcome to Darwin]

Or cared about.

More brown people suffering? I'm sure that's a bonus for the Trump Administration. Especially if they're even vaguely allies: they deserve it for being suckers and trusting the USA.

 

[Anacher]

I don't think they need anyone to tell them that. They're going to have at least a broad picture of US magazine depth on interceptor systems and everyone can do maths like dividing 4 million by 50 thousand and coming up with a very large ratio of attack to interceptor munitions.

Because we already have 4 years of information about the economic imbalance these cheap OWA drones bring to warfare from Ukraine having to learn how to deal with them. And the US has now firmly jammed its dick into the same electrical outlet, but voluntarily and without even beginning to make the same adaptations that Ukraine has been doing for those four years. In part because a large part of the job of the the US MIC's lobbyists is to make sure the words "low" and "cost" never appear in the same sentence.

The worst thing is that since they've done their "decapitation strike" they've probably devolved everything to localised command, meaning that if they now want to stop, well, they have to convince dozens of newly autonomous regional commanders to stop, and since they've mostly hit the cities where the more progressive Iranian citizens who were more opposed to the regime live and the dispersed rural fighters are going to be the most ideological and most committed to fighting America, that's going to be harder than it was a week ago.

So, if you wanted a picture of the dumbest possible way to attack Iran, this is at the very least the AI slop version of it.

There is so much moronic planning by the current admin, and they should've seen it coming. Or they forced out all the people who did, or just ignored them.

What I'm talking about is the US kept using expensive missiles to intercept drone. Patriots, SM-3s, missiles from aircraft (probably AMRAAMS). Ukraine has been dealing with saturation drone strikes for years now. They save the expensive missiles for the hypersonics or ballistic missiles, and use other methods to shoot down as many shahed type drones as they can. Gepards, MG teams, counter drones, etc.

Does the US have those in region? Gonna guess no. Once the patriots run out in theatre, it's going to be a bad day for the US bases and allied infrastructure. It's a race to see what runs out first.

 

[Anacher]

Oh and as an addendum to my post above... the US has already reached out to Ukraine for help dealing with the issue...

 

[breze]

Oh and as an addendum to my post above... the US has already reached out to Ukraine for help dealing with the issue...

On the bright side it puts Ukraine in the position of being able to say “send us <X> first and we’ll help.” Hopefully they remember to ask for half of the payment up front.

 

[Megalodon]

The main Shahed (there are lots of models) is 11 feet across and 8 feet long and weighs 400 lbs. Can it be manufactured in many places? Sure. But it’s not a “Hamad puts it together in his garage” type artifact as the post I was responding to implied.

That's not answering the question. The question was, what components do you think go into a shahed that are so difficult to manufacture? If there's no specific answer, then you don't have a basis to say that.

The avionics require semiconductor fabs obviously but nothing export controlled so stopping those will be difficult, particularly given Iran can trade with Russia across the Caspian (and driving oil prices up benefits Russia, so they have every incentive to facilitate this). The servos to operate the control surfaces are probably non-trivial, but again, not export controlled. The engine requires a machine shop but given it only needs to last a few hours it doesn't really need to be a good one (and the engine is ripped off from western designs anyway, which are not themselves export controlled).

Other than that I'm just not seeing what you think can't be done in a space marginally bigger than the airframe. And if you think there is something, you should be able to say what it is.

This is a major piece of equipment that requires many precision parts be precisely fitted together - this isn’t a drone you put together on your workbench with an arduino.

What precision parts? What has to be precisely fitted together? Please be specific.

Seems to me the tightest tolerance in the whole thing (other than commodity electronics that can be easily imported) would be the engine, and while not every garage has the needed tools, those that do would not find the tolerances insurmountable. Again, this is a youtuber level project.

 

[karolus]

And that type of distributed manufacturing of aircraft isn't without precedent. Germany was doing it in the waning days of World War II. With sometimes facilities no better than a forest clearing for relatively complex (for the time) aircraft.

 

[breze]

The main Shahed (there are lots of models) is 11 feet across and 8 feet long and weighs 400 lbs. Can it be manufactured in many places? Sure. But it’s not a “Hamad puts it together in his garage” type artifact as the post I was responding to implied. This is a major piece of equipment that requires many precision parts be precisely fitted together - this isn’t a drone you put together on your workbench with an arduino.

The garage bit was your interpretation, the original comment you replied to said

Shutting down production of a weapon like Shahed is very difficult because they're simple, cheap, and can be built without a lot of infrastructure.

They can keep building them, dispersed, and keep launching them, from anywhere, and every time they do that they've spent $50,000 at most and the US has spent a million minimum to intercept. That's the economic disparity problem the US is now fighting. It's not about the capabilities of the weapons, it's about the cost of the weapons.

It seems quite reasonably(?) described. $50k is more than a typical garage project, but also, are we really going to destroy every workshop that’s capable of doing a $50k sized project?

 

[tigas]

I'm seeing post on BlueSky claiming the US and its allies in the Gulf have already expended 800 PAC-3 interceptors (200 canisters), which is more than the total given to Ukraine. And that PAC-3 stocks for Qatar have been pegged as 4 day's worth.

Someone shared a gift-link for a Bloomberg article, link expires in 6 days.

Just three days into the conflict, the Iran war has become attritional. Waves of drone attacks by the Islamic Republic are putting pressure on the defenses of the US and its partners from Bahrain to the United Arab Emirates, depleting weapons stockpiles. The outcome of the fight may depend on which side runs out of munitions first.

Shahed-136 one-way attack drones, small, rudimentary cruise missiles, continued to pound targets across the Middle East on Monday. The drones have in recent days hit US bases, oil infrastructure and civilian buildings, since the US and Israel air strikes on Iran — a barrage of cruise missiles, drones and precision-guided bombs — began on Saturday.

US-made Patriot air-defense missiles have been largely successful in stopping the Iranian Shaheds and other ballistic missiles, with interception rates over 90%, according to the UAE. But using $4 million missiles to destroy $20,000 drones illustrates a problem that has haunted Western military planners since early in the Ukraine war: The cheap weapons can chew up resources meant for much more complex threats.

Now the fun starts: Zelenskyy gave an interview to RAI, trying VERY hard not to smile while saying he's got the cards now.

Spoiler: Bluesky embed

View: https://bsky.app/profile/kristiankiehling.bsky.social/post/3mgcoqee2qk2l

 

[N4M8-]

covered already

 

[cakqe]

Japan capitulated due to years of attrition in direct combat action, years of ... Japan did not capitulate just because of air campaigns.

But there's a difference. Presumably most of Iran's population opposes the government. Also less homogeneity.

Yemen is in no place to sustain a long-term conflict with the US and Saudi Arabia, with a starving population and humanitarian crisis, economically devastated. But the missiles keep coming.

Missiles supplied for free by Iran.

Iran capitulated in July, and in 7 months later in February America/Israel simply attacked them again

Iran didn't capitulate. Israel had more targets queued up but Trump intervened and pressured them to stop.

 

[breze]

Although, the US ought to have options not available to Ukraine, given air superiority… I assume we already tried hunting the things with F-16s or some other fighter with a cannon. Wonder why that isn’t working.

 

[terrydactyl]

Iran has an assessed stock of something like 80,000 Shaheds. And you can put them anywhere and everywhere.

Shutting down production of a weapon like Shahed is very difficult because they're simple, cheap, and can be built without a lot of infrastructure.

They can keep building them, dispersed, and keep launching them, from anywhere, and every time they do that they've spent $50,000 at most and the US has spent a million minimum to intercept. That's the economic disparity problem the US is now fighting. It's not about the capabilities of the weapons, it's about the cost of the weapons.


Air superiority is not going to help as much as you think it is, when you're fighting an enemy who is able to attack you with weapons it builds in sheds and garages and forces you to spend a massive amount of money to stop every attack.

And you can be pretty sure they are being built in mine shafts 1,000 underground.

 

[cgo_12345]

Now the fun starts: Zelenskyy gave an interview to RAI, trying VERY hard not to smile while saying he's got the cards now.

Sure hope someone remembers to say "thank you" later...

 

[terrydactyl]

The was an occupation. Hundreds of thousands of US soldiers with boots on the ground.

For reference, that's of a country a fraction of the size of Iran, and an occupation force roughly the size of the active duty US Army today.

I think it would take much more than that to successfully occupy Iran.

Keep in mind, with Japan, the Emperor publicly addressed the people and said Japan was surrendering. And the vast majority of the population accepted and obeyed. It was a rare case and the occupation was quite peaceful. That's not happening again.

 

[Deleted member 28951]

As far as drones (and short-range rockets) are concerned, the following laser might've entered active deployment recently:

https://theconversation.com/israels-iron-beam-why-laser-weapons-are-no-longer-science-fiction-277390

Laser Dome (the system was renamed a while back) is indeed deployed in the current war; it was actively deployed (in a scaled down version) against missiles & UAV from Gaza in 2024 and took out ~40 UAVs.
It's also taken out Iranian UAVs and MRBM fragments in this war, but it does not replace David's Sling or Arrow 2/3 and cannot directly take out MRBMs.

 

[SedsAtArs]

Although, the US ought to have options not available to Ukraine, given air superiority… I assume we already tried hunting the things with F-16s or some other fighter with a cannon. Wonder why that isn’t working.

My guess would be it's not been done. Maybe if this drags out that'll become part of American anti air defense, but I doubt it already is.

 

[karolus]

Although, the US ought to have options not available to Ukraine, given air superiority… I assume we already tried hunting the things with F-16s or some other fighter with a cannon. Wonder why that isn’t working.

First thought here—there is a considerable difference in airspeeds between an F-16 and a Shadeed. IOW, if an F-16 wanted to close in and have a decent shot from their M-61, the pilot could be flirting with the stall speed.

 

[terrydactyl]

Iraq having nationwide blackouts. Looks like Trump admin forgot that Iraq gets 40% of its power from Iran. Opps.

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region...lls-citizens-to-leave-immediately-3215617?s=1

You can be sure Trump doesn't care one whit about Iraq. Have they ever given him gifts like the Saudis do?

 

[Bad Monkey!]

Although, the US ought to have options not available to Ukraine, given air superiority… I assume we already tried hunting the things with F-16s or some other fighter with a cannon. Wonder why that isn’t working.

The US has numerous options for knocking down Shaheds from both the ground and the air, mostly based on laser-guided APKWS rockets, which have been used to good effect by both Ukraine and the US against Houthi drones. A good question is why they're not being used now.

https://www.twz.com/air/laser-guide...nti-drone-weapon-for-usaf-jets-in-middle-east

every TWZ article that mentions APKWS: https://www.twz.com/?s=apkws

 

[terrydactyl]

Back in 2006, Thomas Ricks wrote Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. In it, he details how screwed up the Bush administration was in it's invasion and occupation of Iraq. One would think officials would have absorbed the lesson.

It's looking like Trump is saying hold my beer.

 

[Locke]

I'm seeing post on BlueSky claiming the US and its allies in the Gulf have already expended 800 PAC-3 interceptors (200 canisters), which is more than the total given to Ukraine. And that PAC-3 stocks for Qatar have been pegged as 4 day's worth.

Someone shared a gift-link for a Bloomberg article, link expires in 6 days.

Now the fun starts: Zelenskyy gave an interview to RAI, trying VERY hard not to smile while saying he's got the cards now.
View attachment 129737

Spoiler: Bluesky embed

View: https://bsky.app/profile/kristiankiehling.bsky.social/post/3mgcoqee2qk2l

We're already seeing interceptor shortages a week into the war. Given Iran's reputed stock piles and the relative ease of manufacturing their style of drone it is likely they could start launching more successful attacks as defenders are forced to be pickier about their target selection. As we've seen with Ukraine its easier to destroy than to protect or defend. If you launch a hundred drones at a power plant and only one gets through it can still take out power for weeks or months.

The US has set the goal as regime change, at least officially. But Iran isn't a straight autocracy with a dictator and no one else. It is a relatively stable system with established systems of succession, oppressive as those systems may be. The real goal of Trump is to bury the Epstein files and the real goal for Netanyahu is to stay out of prison.

I think this means time is on Iran's side. The war is unpopular in the US and if casualties mount, or even gas prices spike, it will become even more unpopular. If Trump is stupid/desperate enough to put boots on the ground it could crater approval even faster.

Which is a lot of preamble to say: This is a lot closer to the Ukraine conflict than I think the media realizes. This may be a long war. A prolonged conflict favors real political goals of the aggressors. Where as all Iran has to do is not fully surrender.

 

[Technarch]

Back in 2006, Thomas Ricks wrote Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. In it, he details how screwed up the Bush administration was in it's invasion and occupation of Iraq. One would think officials would have absorbed the lesson.

It's looking like Trump is saying hold my beer.

Like I posted upthread, the Republicans learned the lesson perfectly--they made many billions of dollars. Any costs were borne by the ordinary Americans and Iraqis to whom they are indifferent at best.

 

[Zod]

I hope Americans are ready for 100 dollar oil and boots on the ground which is going to happen period. There is no choice in the matter. I say 5 weeks from now.

There is not a chance that the US can do anything other than conduct in and out raids on the ground. Any attempt to occupy any part of Iran would result in thousands of dead US soldiers.

 

[NewNinetyNine]

I've been seeing articles about Kurdish forces being planned to engage the IRGC but little analysis around force size, motivations, capabilities, etc. Any thoughts on this thrust of the war?

I assume that Kurds would operate with absolute air support superiority but have no idea how feasible that would make urban or town operations without training in combined arms operations.

 

[schnackenpfefferhausen]

The Canadian gov't is also busy arranging flights to get Canadians out of harm's way. I wonder if any Americans will try to get on board those planes?

Elbows up, motherfuckers.

 

[karolus]

I've been seeing articles about Kurdish forces being planned to engage the IRGC but little analysis around force size, motivations, capabilities, etc. Any thoughts on this thrust of the war?

I assume that Kurds would operate with absolute air support superiority but have no idea how feasible that would make urban or town operations without training in combined arms operations.

Based on recent history of US support of Kurdish initiatives, were I one of their leaders, I would be very leery of expecting any support. It would essentially be going out a shaky limb, with no fallback plan or outside assistance.

 

[schnackenpfefferhausen]

It’s a useful psychology exploit for lots of things, including storytelling. You give someone a big gun and they will find reasons to use it, but guns can’t solve every problem so they just use it more.

"Use a gun, and if that don't work, use more gun" - Engineer

 

[schnackenpfefferhausen]

Although, the US ought to have options not available to Ukraine, given air superiority… I assume we already tried hunting the things with F-16s or some other fighter with a cannon. Wonder why that isn’t working.

Wasn't that how the drones were dealt with during the first Iranian waves of attacks on Israel during the Biden admin? Which.. seemed to work just fine?

 

[schnackenpfefferhausen]

Based on recent history of US support of Kurdish initiatives, were I one of their leaders, I would be very leery of expecting any support. It would essentially be going out a shaky limb, with no fallback plan or outside assistance.

But this time things will be different.
..
Right?

 

[Anacher]

Wasn't that how the drones were dealt with during the first Iranian waves of attacks on Israel during the Biden admin? Which.. seemed to work just fine?

I think in general, you don't want fighters hunting slower drones when Air Defense systems are also operating. Too good of a chance to shoot down your own airplanes.

 

[Papageno]

Very likely. I'm not American so don't follow US politics as closely as USians in the SB do.
I will just say that I lived in the US in 1991-1994, followed the 1992 presidential campaign very closely, and even back then it was clear to me neither the R or D parties counted as political parties from a civics viewpoint. They were both governing elites from the same political class where power was its own goal, not public service or ideology. This was all the more evident given the numerous dynasties, and the very minimal candidate turnaround, let alone new ideas.
/offtopic

It's late capitalism, in which the financial industry is an ever greater segment of the economy. Knocking down the wall that (in the US) used to exist between commercial and investment banking has done nothing but accelerate our downfall. The people now seem to exist only as a resource to exploit for the benefit of the superyacht- and watches with papers- owning classes.

 

[Megalodon]

Wasn't that how the drones were dealt with during the first Iranian waves of attacks on Israel during the Biden admin? Which.. seemed to work just fine?

Well, first of all, Israel also has much cheaper interceptor missiles than the Patriot system. Second, Israel is small, the Gulf overall is big. Third, I'm pretty sure Iran is launching a lot more now, against softer targets.

The cost per engagement just doesn't scale. The F-16's cost per flight hour is similar to the cost of a shahed (and the F-16 is cheap to operate compared to newer platforms!), and the lead time in terms of procurement/training/etc is much longer. There's a reason Ukraine is fighting shaheds with general aviation aircraft with a gun hanging out the door and it's not because they don't have F-16's. This is what people are fundamentally not understanding about what these things are doing to warfare. If the defender stops the cheap attack expensively, that is a favorable exchange for the attacker. Forcing the engagement is a victory for the attacker even if the defender succeeds. And because the attack is cheap, they can exhaust or saturate defenses.

If the engagement economics are asymmetric enough, Iran in shambles can outspend the US.

 

[Scotttheking]

Speaking of insanity, I was just watching Trey Crowder's YouTube rant and he mentioned that there are all these Americans and Brits stuck in Dubai and that, while the British government was busy reaching out to them to help arrange their evacuation, the American government has no similar capability.... Indeed, it seems that if you are an American stranded by the American government making war, it's on you to find a way home. Government 'effenciency' in action.

Of course the US has the capability. It's choosing to use it that's the problem.