War with...Iran?

Klinn

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I've been seeing articles about Kurdish forces being planned to engage the IRGC but little analysis around force size, motivations, capabilities, etc. Any thoughts on this thrust of the war?
Well, if I was in the Kurds' shoes I'd be saying "Sure, give us those weapons we need and we'll get around to it ... real soon now".

Then keep an eye to see if the situation ends up as either:
  1. Over time the IRGC is diminished substantially, making the Kurds' objectives easier to accomplish, or...
  2. Wait for the US to turn tail and bail out of Iran, at which point the Kurds can give a sigh of relief that they didn't get embroiled in the conflict and hung out to dry.
Personally, I think #2 is the more likely scenario. TACO time!
 

Sajuuk

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Trump says he needs to be involved in selecting Iran's next leader, Axios reports

March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios on Thursday that he needs to ‌be personally involved in selecting Iran's next leader.

"Khamenei's son is unacceptable to me. We want someone that will bring harmony and peace to Iran," ⁠Axios quoted Trump as saying in an interview.

"I have to be involved in the appointment, like with Delcy (Rodriguez) in Venezuela," Trump said.

Regime change? No, no, we're doing regime consultancy now.
 
I'm pretty sure Iran is launching a lot more now, against softer targets.
On day one, maybe more in total but apparently far less per target.
But now, a week later, I think they're having much more trouble.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/small...el-anew-iran-shifts-tack-on-missile-barrages/
During the June war, and in two previous attacks, Iran fired dozens of missiles at a time, using the numbers to try to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses. This time, the Islamic Republic has seemingly largely limited itself to a few missiles per attack
In the June conflict ... eventually responded with two large barrages totaling 150 missiles between them. Subsequent days saw more large barrages, which petered off toward the end of the 12-day conflict.
On Saturday, the first day of the current war, Iran fired even more missiles — around 170 in total — but spread them in smaller salvos of two or three missiles at a time rather than concentrated in large opening salvos. The volleys targeted not only Israel but also Gulf states and American bases in the region.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/b1ubs08f11x
drop in alerts since the first day of Operation Roaring Lion, when more than 13,000 sirens were recorded nationwide. On the second day the number fell to 9,093, before stabilizing between roughly 2,400 and 4,000 alerts per day over the following three days.

https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/us-...00461540-cdebb92a-334d-4118-b7a1-3c3938cf2a1a
The UAE Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced that UAE air defence systems intercepted 11 ballistic missiles and 123 drones today
since the beginning ... a total of 186 ballistic missiles have been detected as launched towards the UAE. Of these, 172 missiles were destroyed
MoD added that 812 Iranian drones were detected, of which 755 were intercepted
 
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Papageno

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I hope Americans are ready for 100 dollar oil and boots on the ground which is going to happen period. There is no choice in the matter. I say 5 weeks from now.
That would be the quagmire to end all quagmires, given the size and population of the country. I don't think even Trump and his minions are that stupid.
 
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Technarch

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That would be the quagmire to end all quagmires, given the size and population of the country. I don't think even Trump and his minions are that stupid.

What's stupid? Trump's not paying for it. He will be insulated from any and all consequence.
 
D

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Iran has an assessed stock of something like 80,000 Shaheds. And you can put them anywhere and everywhere.

Shutting down production of a weapon like Shahed is very difficult because they're simple, cheap, and can be built without a lot of infrastructure.

They can keep building them, dispersed, and keep launching them, from anywhere, and every time they do that they've spent $50,000 at most and the US has spent a million minimum to intercept. That's the economic disparity problem the US is now fighting. It's not about the capabilities of the weapons, it's about the cost of the weapons.


Air superiority is not going to help as much as you think it is, when you're fighting an enemy who is able to attack you with weapons it builds in sheds and garages and forces you to spend a massive amount of money to stop every attack.
Where did you see an estimate of 80K Shahed-class attack UAVs? Numbers I'm familiar with are 20K-30K before the start of the current war.
Granted, that's still a large number.
Also, they're made in pretty large factories on assembly lines (that's why max output was estimated to be 10K/month, assuming all components were available).
Guess what infrastructure the IAF hit first the first day of the war?

The economics are of course important, and interception costs vary widely -- but attack UAVs are not typically brought down by Patriots or THAAD or Arrow 2/3 systems -- those are focused on the ballistic missiles (Mach 8 underway, not the 185 km/h Shahed) .
In fact, while I don't know the US costs, over here the cost of an Iron Dome interceptor is $30-40K, and that's the usual method. If aircraft are used (far less common), an F-16 flight hour costs $8000 here (including manpower, maintenance and depreciation), and the AIM-9 missile used ~$400K.
(If it can be intercepted by Laser Dome, cost is ~$5).

Sure, long term it's an issue -- but there's no reason to think it'll matter long term. IRGC personnel are already deserting launch sites and refusing launch orders simply because it's become too dangerous to be near one.
 
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Well, first of all, Israel also has much cheaper interceptor missiles than the Patriot system. Second, Israel is small, the Gulf overall is big. Third, I'm pretty sure Iran is launching a lot more now, against softer targets.

The cost per engagement just doesn't scale. The F-16's cost per flight hour is similar to the cost of a shahed (and the F-16 is cheap to operate compared to newer platforms!), and the lead time in terms of procurement/training/etc is much longer. There's a reason Ukraine is fighting shaheds with general aviation aircraft with a gun hanging out the door and it's not because they don't have F-16's. This is what people are fundamentally not understanding about what these things are doing to warfare. If the defender stops the cheap attack expensively, that is a favorable exchange for the attacker. Forcing the engagement is a victory for the attacker even if the defender succeeds. And because the attack is cheap, they can exhaust or saturate defenses.

If the engagement economics are asymmetric enough, Iran in shambles can outspend the US.

It just seems weird—I mean, these things fly at WW1 biplane speed, right? We couldn’t have been vulnerable to 1920’s technology all this time.

WRT the cost per flight hour, that seems like a fine trade, we have a much larger economy so if we spent like 2X as much as Iran knocking down drones, that’d be sustainable. The problem is these order-of-magnitude mismatches.
 

Zod

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Yup. That's the flag seen in all Iranian anti-regime protests abroad, and has been for years (frequently with Israeli flags waved by Iranian expats, no Israelis around).
I've even seen the Lion & Sun flag in video clips of internal Iranian demonstrations the past few months.
It’s all over London at the moment. They’ve been protesting outside the Iranian Embassy since January.
 

Lt_Storm

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Of course the US has the capability. It's choosing to use it that's the problem.
Before Doge, you would have been right. But, Trump has spent the past year and change destroying the government's capability to do things like that. Suffice it to say that the people who provided such capabilities have probably been fired. It's inefficient to be able to get Americans out of Dodge after all.
 

terrydactyl

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That would be the quagmire to end all quagmires, given the size and population of the country. I don't think even Trump and his minions are that stupid.
I heard that about George W back in 2003. Never underestimate the stupid when they band together.
 

Klinn

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Talking about stupid, this is via TWZ:

The Washington Post has reported on the U.S. military’s use of artificial intelligence (AI) driven tools to help with developing target packages and other tasks in support of Operation Epic Fury.

So that's what happened. Hegseth told the AI he wanted "to teach those Iranians a lesson!!!" and the AI responded with coords of that school. Hey, with the current so-called "leadership" it's as likely as not.
 

flipside

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Concerning the Shaheds, I imagine this video is being watched with great interest around the Gulf recently. One Sting interceptor is around 2500 Dollars, they claim.


View: https://youtu.be/9BW9UGX7dl4?si=bMeTMgwYtQ7lBsLz


I really hope Ukraine can profit from selling this technology.
 

Megalodon

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It just seems weird—I mean, these things fly at WW1 biplane speed, right? We couldn’t have been vulnerable to 1920’s technology all this time.
Well, depends on how you look at it. WW1 biplanes weren't generally considered single use expendable. If you wanted to wage a war today with, say, Sopwith Camels, you could absolutely do it, and you could probably even score some victories against ground targets, it's just that the attrition would be unsustainable, you wouldn't be able to train pilots fast enough. Whereas with a drone that bottleneck is removed.

It's the cycle of reincarnation and it's happened a bunch of times. You start out with a system that works, everyone adopts it, they adapt and specialize and compete, and then one day that system is so expensive and vulnerable to something cheaper that it becomes untenable. Knights were the last word in medieval combat until the longbow, and so on.

The US has done a good job of locking everyone into expensive arms races which was a race the US was well equipped to dominate, now that's changing.

WRT the cost per flight hour, that seems like a fine trade, we have a much larger economy so if we spent like 2X as much as Iran knocking down drones, that’d be sustainable. The problem is these order-of-magnitude mismatches.
There's also just the scaling problem, Iran can launch too many shaheds for a reasonably sized airforce to intercept, and you need a decade to increase your airforce. Even if the cost per engagement is reasonable, the lead time and startup cost is not.

Saudi Arabia has ~200 F-15's and smaller numbers of other aircraft. It's not that hard for Iran to launch hundreds of shaheds at once. That's why you can't only look at exhaustion, you also have to look at saturation. That's why Ukraine's smaller and cheaper interceptor drones are needed, they can scale AND the cost per engagement is low.
 

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7SnaMphvug


Get ready for gas shortages like in 1979. Fights, National Guard having to provide security for fuel trucks, people stealing gas from neighbors, odd and even plate fuel days. I wonder how the MAGA folks react to this, they can't continue to blame Biden.
 

terrydactyl

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terrydactyl

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Technarch

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I mean...sure they can.
More likely it will be "eh, this will be over in a few weeks, I'll just drive a little less."

And then as the weeks go by, they'll say "Well if the dems, especially Obama, hadn't pussyfooted around Iran years ago, we wouldn't be in this situation."

And then as it goes on longer, they'll start directing their anger towards Trump acolytes, including Hegseth. But they will never, ever, ever blame Trump for any of it. It will always be someone else's fault.
 

Snark218

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I'm seeing post on BlueSky claiming the US and its allies in the Gulf have already expended 800 PAC-3 interceptors (200 canisters), which is more than the total given to Ukraine. And that PAC-3 stocks for Qatar have been pegged as 4 day's worth.

Someone shared a gift-link for a Bloomberg article, link expires in 6 days.

Now the fun starts: Zelenskyy gave an interview to RAI, trying VERY hard not to smile while saying he's got the cards now.

“Look at me. Look at me. I am the captain now.”
 
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Alexander

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Get ready for gas shortages like in 1979. Fights, National Guard having to provide security for fuel trucks, people stealing gas from neighbors, odd and even plate fuel days. I wonder how the MAGA folks react to this, they can't continue to blame Biden.

Gas prices will spike and increase inflation as costs ripple through the supply chain, but between 1979 and now the US went from importing ~45% of domestic consumption to becoming the world's largest producer and a net exporter. So there will be high prices and inflation as cost effects ripples through the supply chain but no physical supply shortages (unless artificially created).

Japan (95% of oil from Middle East), South Korea (70%), India (55%), China (50%) are very vulnerable, along with Europe to a lesser degree.
 

Technarch

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Know it’s far easier said than done, but the economic impact of this conflict underscores the need for a greater push toward renewables and alternative energy sources.

Some nations, like China, are well along, but others need to pick up the pace. Like yesterday.

Honestly this is one of the biggest reasons I've been advocating renewable energy--wars in the Middle East. If not for oil no one would give a shit about these savages blowing each other's kids up, and the U.S. in particular would not have to get involved. Now Trump has earned us another two generations of being targets for terrorist wackos. Fucking great.
 

Macam

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Epic Fury
Epstein Files

I am almost entirely certain it is coincidence, but I was amused.
https://meincmagazine.com/civis/attac...1511432&hash=64be48e7f056be86e68983dacf9c00c1
Vanna, I'd like to buy a vowel: E.

Pat, I'd like to solve the puzzle!

Epic Fury [over the]
Epstein Files

EDIT: We have AI now, so we should go the extra mile.

epic.png
 
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Gary Patterson

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Anacher

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Honestly this is one of the biggest reasons I've been advocating renewable energy--wars in the Middle East. If not for oil no one would give a shit about these savages blowing each other's kids up, and the U.S. in particular would not have to get involved. Now Trump has earned us another two generations of being targets for terrorist wackos. Fucking great.

This is actually why Europe won't be as impacted by the LNG impacts compared to others. They went all in on renewables. (Which of course Trump hated). It makes them less beholden to not only Russia, but the US and the mideast.
 

9600man

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Remember the “Board of Peace” a number of Middle East nations paid to get into? Well supposedly there is some grumbling on how Trump decided to then throw the entire region to war and where is this money now going? The money was apparently earmarked for development initiatives towards, you guessed it, peace.

Kushner is going to be found dead or disappeared. You don’t fuck with people who are okay with dismembering a journalist with saws.