War with...Iran?

[Ecmaster76]

Sorry, i guess the fog is still very heavy

There isn't even a war yet. This is just the fog of internet.

 

[Ecmaster76]

Do we really need to have all this whataboutism in (counts) three or four threads at once?

 

[Ecmaster76]

Those people are still dead. Help did not make it to them.

Its not exactly clear what help could be employed. Sanctions are already being escalated.

Military intervention is controversial with no sure bet of success. Moreso if it was employed preemptively.

 

[Ecmaster76]

As the thread creator, I think the question mark stays as an indicator of how ridiculous the subject is.

It's also important to remain consistent with the Greenland, Venezuela, Mexico, Cuba, and Canada threads. Branding is important for any franchise.

I can see the latter point but still think "!?!" might be required now

 

[Ecmaster76]

Hasn't really come up in the thread so far but at this point I'm assuming that Iran's air force must not meaningfully exist any longer.

 

[Ecmaster76]

Since there aren't any collaborating reports, I'm going to guess the absurd amount of inbounds are all fake too.

So Iranian disinformation embedded tweets, apparently

 

[Ecmaster76]

It's possible the image is a timelapse or composite instead of a single instant, can't say, but I've seen many many videos of strikes on Tel Aviv.

Also keep in mind many/most of those will have been intercepted. From what I've seen Israel hasn't quite run out of interceptors. Yet.

A composite? Maybe.
But I think they are normally intercepted higher than that.

Regardless, it was produced and captioned to imply that some kind of overwhelming counterattack had landed.

 

[Ecmaster76]

That Substack article claims no such thing even though it uses Hegseth in the opening image.

The article reports that there were complaints about a unit commander stating that was the mission.

Hegseth is definitely enabling and emboldening Christian nationalism in the forces. Nonetheless he isn't quoted as saying this conflict is to bring Armageddon nor accused of telling his subordinates that.

Granted, it's only Tuesday


(Also trying to start or predict Armageddon is heretical by a plain reading of the Bible for what that's worth )

 

[Ecmaster76]

That’s not a random dude, he’s a respected journalist.

A perfect reason for everyone to RTFA!

 

[Ecmaster76]

I will agree that Europe has done all sorts of shit over the years, if you can agree that we (outside Russia) have refrained from that sort of madness after 1945.

... after 1945 mostly.

Edit: France in Vietnam if an example is demanded but definitely not the only instance

 

[Ecmaster76]

Both Israel and the US have demonstrated capability to hit a specific moving vehicle with their bombs and missiles while hitting nothing else, so there is no way this was a "miss".

They don't use that type of munitions for every attack. Nor has it been proven to be a US or Israeli weapon that did this yet (although that seems like the most likely explanation)

 

[Ecmaster76]

how do you explain that:

if it wasn't pushed down from the very top?
https://www.militaryreligiousfreedo...-plan-to-usher-in-the-return-of-jesus-christ/

OK. This is weird. The MRRF statement page doesn't say much. Rather, it links to another MRRF page which is just a preview linked to the Substack article that in turn cites the MRRF

Bit of a circular reference.


Anyhow, the point was that people were outright stating that Hegseth had said it when the article didn't claim that. It's fine to infer it's coming from him. Everyone can have their own analysis of the facts

 

[Ecmaster76]

You saw what you wanted to see.

The MRRF site itself points to the Substack article so I don't know how anyone else could have independently verified yet.

But if you can find any news organization that did their own interview or research then please, by all means, share. You did claim its all over the internet so that should be trivial.

 

[Ecmaster76]

Possibly, but recall Erdoğan cut a deal with the major Turkish-Kurd militant opposition group PKK very recently, and they are in process of disarming.

Would the PKK taking all their arms into Iran count?

 

[Ecmaster76]

Actually that brings up another angle. There are lots of very well armed people in Iraq (including Shiites) in no small part thanks to Iran

What went across a border can always cross back.

 

[Ecmaster76]

Robert Pape explains why air power has never produced regime change in 100 years of bombing campaigns:


View: https://youtu.be/Fv7EslZ3ZAE?t=83




Time article with an interview:

Q: What is the escalation trap, and how does it apply to this conflict?​

​

[Robert Pape]: The escalation trap occurs when supreme confidence in tactical success leads to not taking seriously that the enemy will become more nationalist, more aggressive as a result of the attack. With precision smart bombs, the trap is especially seductive. Smart bombs are nearly 100% tactically successful. But the goal is not just to crater, knock down buildings, [or] kill individuals. The goal is to produce a change in the policies of the enemy government. For that, you need to change politics in your direction, not just destroy objects or kill people.​

​

However, even when the attacker may have 100% tactical success, politics almost always moves in the opposite direction of what the attacker wants. The bombing itself infuses nationalism in the regime and across the society, and that nationalism as it's infused in the politics, radicalizes and makes the regime and society more coherent against the foreign attacker, more willing to take risks, to retaliate against the foreign attacker, more willing to accept costs, not to give in to the foreign attacker. ​

​

You see this on display in Iran in the last few days. In President Trump’s interviews, his public statements have ranged from describing a short campaign to a potentially longer one. Thirty-six hours ago he publicly spoke about off-ramps. That's the illusion of control, the very illusion of control that is encouraged in the smart bomb age. When a leader sees a PowerPoint briefing that shows over 90% probability of destroying that target, that creates the illusion of control. However, it's a mirage. Tactical perfection does not automatically lead to strategic success and overconfidence that it does is the trap that leads to the opposite—strategic failure.​

https://time.com/7382278/iran-bombing-regime-change-pape/

People keep making this claim without addressing Japan. Let's hope it doesn't go that far, but the precedent exists.

 

[Ecmaster76]

Eh, that feels like an iffy comparison. Japan capitulated due to years of attrition in direct combat action, years of bombing, two atomic bombs, and the very real threat of being invaded by both the US and the USSR. Japan did not capitulate just because of air campaigns.

No two conflicts are the same and I agree that there are a lot of significant differences.

Still, Iran has been subjected to years of sanctions and multiple limited direct conflicts. They have also been involved in conflicts in Syria, Lebanon, Israel/Gaza, and Iraq (through aid and likely quite a few little green men)

 

[Ecmaster76]

The was an occupation. Hundreds of thousands of US soldiers with boots on the ground.

For reference, that's of a country a fraction of the size of Iran, and an occupation force roughly the size of the active duty US Army today.

I think it would take much more than that to successfully occupy Iran.

The regime change occurred before the occupation.

 

[Ecmaster76]

Khamenei tweets from the afterlife.


View: https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/2029936701599089088?s=20


The Zionist regime has made a big mistake, and its consequences will make the regime desperate, by God's grace.

To be fair the lil tiny date under his quote does disclose that its something he said that the last time Israel attacked and Iran didn't do much in particular to follow through

 

[Ecmaster76]

A Fatwa isn't an action of the Iranian state, it's a commandment to the faithful worldwide, to be undertaken by anyone who feels sufficiently motivated to do so.

It is, at the very least, a new permanent headache for the Secret Service.

It would only be, most likely, Shiites sympathetic to the Iranian mullahs that would pay any attention to it whatsoever but that's still potentially a few million people

 

[Ecmaster76]

"We are absolutely NOT seeking a ceasefire": Iran's speaker of Parliament says their goal is to break America/Israel's cycle of "war-negotiation-ceasfire-war again":

Absolutely, we are not seeking a ceasefire; we believe we must strike the aggressor in the mouth so that it learns a lesson and never again even thinks of aggressing against our dear Iran.The Zionist regime sees its ignoble existence in perpetuating the cycle of "war-negotiation-ceasefire and then war again" in order to consolidate its domination. We will break this cycle.​

View: https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2031277205540544892

The President of Iran made his own statement the other day that the military completely ignored. Does the speaker have any actual authority either?

 

[Ecmaster76]

There’s photos and journalism that confirms this.

Final assembly is only one part of production

Motors, batteries, and circuit boards aren't being built in garages. The factories and/or shipments can be destroyed