War with...Iran?

DarthSlack

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I always wonder if he is trolling or he lives in a reality that is a lot different from mine. If you consider the world is just a great chess game and win/lost have not real consequence to you, then I can see when some people is coming from. There are always way to win more for yourself and the cost of losing/wrong is not paid by you anyways.

The common denominator with Soriak is that he's always leaving important things out. It's always a very, very, very selective view of the issue. Take Greenland for example. Soriak would have you believe it's Trump's 1293854D chess move because Greenland hasn't actually been invaded. What gets completely ignored in that narrative is why the ever-loving fuck is he even threatening something like that? What deranged thought process leads Trump to threaten a long-time US ally like Denmark? What's the end game? Minerals? Mining? Whale hunting? The Igloo Gap? Furthermore, what gets left out of Soriak's narrative is that literally the only reason Iceland was threatened with invasion is that Trump has absolutely no idea that Greenland and Iceland are two different places. But we're supposed to focus on the non-invasion of Iceland and Trump's genius negotiating strategy, not the eye-watering stupidity that led to the threat in the first place.
 

Nazgutek

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As for the second term (you know, 12 months) -- I haven't heard much from Hamas and Hezbollah lately. How are they doing? The peace agreement, worked out by Trump, actually held up.

Helicopter gunships are an everyday occurence during peace, right?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c701g1g00gdo

At least 32 people have been killed in a wave of Israeli air strikes across the Gaza Strip on Saturday, according to local authorities.

The civil defence agency, which is operated by Hamas, says children and women were among those killed. It added that in one attack, helicopter gunships hit a tent sheltering displaced people in the southern city of Khan Younis.
 

Lt_Storm

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I didn't say that Trump was serious, I said that you thought that was an actual negotiating strategy. Which is true.
But, of course, Trump was being serious about Greenland. It's a bit like a strong man announcing that he's going to lift a car only to back down when he realizes someone packed it with lead bricks. The issue isn't that he wasn't serious about lifting the car, the issue is that he isn't actually strong enough to lift both the car and all the lead. If there weren't lead bricks in the small car, here would be holding it over his head. Being serious about something that, for whatever reason, you cannot effectively do is still seriousness, just without capability.

Much like how the events at Davos are actually much more meaningful than Trump's threats in Iran or his action in Venezuela. After all, it won't be the first time that Trump has blown something in Iran up. Anything short of an actual invasion isn't going to change much for those protesters. And Trump's too chicken shit to invade someplace so far away.

But that stuff in Davos, it represents a long term political break between the US and all our former allies. They have decided that we are a problem and that will have serious long term effects. Hell, that stuff in Davos even has an effect on Iran. After all, it means that Europe are former allies, so the Supreme Leader doesn't have to worry about a coordinated response.
 

goates

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It's a weird little thing (maybe he met someone who couldn't get their jet registered in Canada), but for all the pundits screaming about how he can't do this, the Canadian government is just going to certify them and give him what he wants.
The Gulfstream aircraft were already in the process of being certified, so he was going to get it anyways. There was zero reason to throw a hissy fit. All Trump's antics do is reinforce the need to further disengage with the US in the long run.

As for why they haven't been certified, these aircraft have a new fuel system so Transport Canada and the FAA wanted more testing to properly verify it. The FAA gave Gulfstream a temporary certification while the testing is being done, while Transport Canada decided to wait for the results. Nothing illegal or malicious.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airfra...fuel-icing-certification-rules/156570.article

Waterhouse says the issue Trump is focused on with the Gulfstream jets relates to a fuel system that mitigates the risk of icing, and although the company’s aircraft has been certified by many other aviation authorities, including the Federal Aviation Administration and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, Transport Canada has not.

“They [Gulfstream] haven’t actually completed all the certification activities to show full compliance, and so they [Transport Canada] gave them three years to do that, which that time finishes at the end of this year,” says Waterhouse.
“I don’t believe Transport Canada is going to issue a type certificate when it hasn’t been completed. So they’re not refusing to do it. It’s just they’re waiting for the FAA and Gulfstream to finish the job, which they have yet to do.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/11645326/donald-trump-bombardier-gulfstream-tariffs/
 

Wheels Of Confusion

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The common denominator with Soriak is that he's always leaving important things out. It's always a very, very, very selective view of the issue. Take Greenland for example. Soriak would have you believe it's Trump's 1293854D chess move because Greenland hasn't actually been invaded. What gets completely ignored in that narrative is why the ever-loving fuck is he even threatening something like that? What deranged thought process leads Trump to threaten a long-time US ally like Denmark? What's the end game? Minerals? Mining? Whale hunting? The Igloo Gap? Furthermore, what gets left out of Soriak's narrative is that literally the only reason Iceland was threatened with invasion is that Trump has absolutely no idea that Greenland and Iceland are two different places. But we're supposed to focus on the non-invasion of Iceland and Trump's genius negotiating strategy, not the eye-watering stupidity that led to the threat in the first place.
Not to mention we walked away with nothing Trump claimed he'd wanted and shed a shitload of international good will, eroded our crucial economic and defense alliances, and showed the world that with Trump in charge and an electorate ready to put him there America is as bad as Putin's Russia. That's not even counting how utterly fucking stupid the whole thing is, and in turn how stupid it makes America look to the entire rest of the globe.

It's 100% downsides. Big ones.
 

cgo_12345

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The common denominator with Soriak is that he's always leaving important things out.
Well yeah, he's not here to argue in good faith. He's here to derail the conversation and make you chew through your time and energy refuting every point of his goddamn stupid lying boring nonsense.
 

Lt_Storm

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Well yeah, he's not here to argue in good faith. He's here to derail the conversation and make you chew through your time and energy refuting every point of his goddamn stupid lying boring nonsense.
I miss when or politics were sane enough that people trying to do that occasionally had a leg to stand on and occasionally made a good point or two.
 
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D

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[responding to wavelet's post in the Venezuela thread]




A big part of Iran's threatened retaliation is to hit oil export terminals and big refineries in the gulf (in addition to shutting down the strait of hormuz).

Also Saudi Arabia helping the Trump admin saber rattle:


View: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2017404498403332273



in completely unrelated news, the US just announced a $9B arms sale to Saudi Arabia on the same day.

Hitting oil infrastructure is obviously an economic blow, but still not targeting civilian populations, which is what my post was talking about.
The Iranian regime threatened this specifically in case of any attack whatsoever by the US, even if Israel isn't involved (the actual threat was "we will target Tel-Aviv).
As for what the KSA Defense Minister said, Crown Prince and de-facto ruler MBS assured Iran just a few days ago that KSA will not let anyone use its airspace to attack Iran:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...nt-tells-saudi-crown-prince-phone-2026-01-27/
And he outranks the Defense Minister.
 

Bardon

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The Gulfstream aircraft were already in the process of being certified, so he was going to get it anyways. There was zero reason to throw a hissy fit. All Trump's antics do is reinforce the need to further disengage with the US in the long run.

As for why they haven't been certified, these aircraft have a new fuel system so Transport Canada and the FAA wanted more testing to properly verify it. The FAA gave Gulfstream a temporary certification while the testing is being done, while Transport Canada decided to wait for the results. Nothing illegal or malicious.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airfra...fuel-icing-certification-rules/156570.article



https://globalnews.ca/news/11645326/donald-trump-bombardier-gulfstream-tariffs/
Yeah, why would Canada of all places be concerned about possible icing in a new system on an airplane? /S

Seriously, it's a no-brainer.
 

Soriak

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I always wonder if he is trolling or he lives in a reality that is a lot different from mine. If you consider the world is just a great chess game and win/lost have not real consequence to you, then I can see when some people is coming from. There are always way to win more for yourself and the cost of losing/wrong is not paid by you anyways.
A lot of global politics is a game of chess -- or better, a game of Risk. Alliances change based on what's expedient. "Nations have no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests" is the first thing you learn in a policy program. The US used to be allied with Russia against Germany, not anymore. Europe used to be really concerned about human rights in China that conveniently justified restricting trade, and now that doesn't come up so much anymore because there's a need for trade agreements.

So yes, I think there's a lot of strategic deliberation happening right now as assets are being moved into the Middle East. The DoD is thinking about how Iran would retaliate, and that's why there's air defense systems getting flown in from European bases. And they're thinking about what kind of scale the attack should be: targeting just leadership in precision strikes, or going for shock and awe. That's all going to involve deliberation with other countries, and whatever they say publicly isn't what happens behind closed doors.

European dependence on the USA was the greatest coup in foreign policy of the 20th century, and until his second term, it was seen across Europe as a bit of an annoyance and a minor indignity, not a fundamental flaw. Now? Well, I'd phrase it as a 90 year legacy up in smoke
European dependence on the US was a huge boost for European countries, which collected a peace dividend: they cut defense budget and could use that money to pay for social programs. Now, they need to start investing in defense, too, and shoulder some of that NATO responsibility. That has long been the stated objective of the US, and Trump made it happen by creating uncertainty.

But that stuff in Davos, it represents a long term political break between the US and all our former allies. They have decided that we are a problem and that will have serious long term effects. Hell, that stuff in Davos even has an effect on Iran. After all, it means that Europe are former allies, so the Supreme Leader doesn't have to worry about a coordinated response.

UK backs American strikes on Iran to stop nuclear programme
Sir Keir Starmer has signalled British support for a US strike on Iran, saying he backs President Trump’s goal of preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

France also just changed its position and is now supporting declaring IRGC a terrorist organization (see here)

I don't see any sign that the EU is not supporting the US here. What have you seen that differs? Nobody was expecting Danish fighter jets to strike positions in Iran.

I miss when or politics were sane enough that people trying to do that occasionally had a leg to stand on and occasionally made a good point or two.
There's probably a reason nearly everyone who would make an opposing argument has left the forum, and the remaining ones log on to 10+ responses and have to ask themselves how much time they want to spend arguing. In the ICE thread, people are acting as if federal agents are running around executing people, which is what's happening in Iran but not in the United States (pretty big difference). So yes, language has gotten more extreme and viewpoints have become more extreme (the "mainstream media" are now right-wing corporate shills). And anything that is anti-Trump is believed or celebrated, even when it's the IRGC. It's mindblowing to me that the devastating crackdown in Iran attracted basically no interest on this board until it's about Trump considering a strike, and then some people seriously seem to think this is about the Epstein files or Minneapolis.
 
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Lt_Storm

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In the ICE thread, people are acting as if federal agents are running around executing people, which is what's happening in Iran but not in the United States (pretty big difference)
Except, of course, Alex Pretti was actually executed by federal agents in broad daylight on camera. We have video of that from multiple angles. Seriously, go. watch. it.

Some leg to stand on... SMH
 

Sajuuk

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Except, of course, Alex Pretti was actually executed by federal agents in broad daylight on camera. We have video of that from multiple angles. Seriously, go. watch. it.

Some leg to stand on... SMH
Please ignore how many Americans police have killed this year. Please ignore how many Americans ICE has killed this year. Please ignore our literal concentration camps of wailing children. Please ignore the systemic violence committed by our carceral state continuously because we don't keep records and if it kills you they can call it excited delirium.
 

Zod

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Shocking that there might be consequences for a regime executing an estimated 30,000+ civilians. So far, Trump’s foreign interventions have been highly effective. No reason to think this one won’t also be. But the silence around the slaughter certainly says a lot about the people who can’t seem to condemn the regime.
Who is failing to condemn the regime?

Why no criticism for the man who told the protesters “help is on the way”, then did nothing as 20-30,000 were murdered?
 

wco81

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The people have no chance. They don't have any weapons while over a million loyalists are armed and won't hesitate to massacre any dissent.

I also heard that there are approximately 50k Starlink terminals in Iran. The guards have searched for them, going door to door in some cases, but they can't root them out.

So the only weapon people have is to get information out despite the Iranian regime blocking the official ISPs and mobile carriers.

But it's all on the whims of Musk, he can cut them off as well.

In fact, Uganda requested that they cut off Starlink in that country and SpaceX complied, right before elections.

Uganda's authorities have denied reports that they are planning to cut access to the internet during next week's election.
The main opposition candidate last week repeated claims that the government was going to block the internet to prevent his supporters from mobilising, and sharing election results.

On Friday, satellite internet provider Starlink restricted its services in Uganda following an order from the communications regulator, fuelling these concerns.

President Yoweri Museveni is seeking to extend his 40-year rule in the 15 January elections. His strongest challenger is expected to be Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, a former pop star.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy09nvdnrkro
 

Soriak

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Why no criticism for the man who told the protesters “help is on the way”, then did nothing as 20-30,000 were murdered?
The military is moving air defense assets into the region. It's widely expected that Iran will retaliate against an attack and strike Israel as well as US bases. It certainly looks like help is on the way -- it just takes some time to move the equipment. Iran, after all, has quite an arsenal of missiles.
 

Zod

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The military is moving air defense assets into the region. It's widely expected that Iran will retaliate against an attack and strike Israel as well as US bases. It certainly looks like help is on the way -- it just takes some time to move the equipment. Iran, after all, has quite an arsenal of missiles.
Those people are still dead. Help did not make it to them.
 
Its not exactly clear what help could be employed. Sanctions are already being escalated.

Military intervention is controversial with no sure bet of success. Moreso if it was employed preemptively.

Military intervention at this point doesn't even have a definition of success at the strategic level. Removing the Iranian regime is an operational step, the strategic definition of success has to answer the question "what then, and why?"

You can see how that isn't how the current US regime works because, well, there was no "what then" in Venezuela.

This isn't even the neoconservative fantasy of giving them an election and opening a branch of McDonalds and they'll become America's mini-me as it was in Iraq/Afghanistan, this is full-on no concept that planning for the day after is even a thing you could do.

And Iran is in a much worse state than the last round of middle east nation building, it's out of water. This round of protests was sparked by the regime considering moving the capital away from Tehran because it's at single digit percentages of its water table, it keeps building dams in the wrong places salinating the water it does have and chasing water intensive cash agriculture like sugar cane, the energy sector is a mess of misaligned incentives (subsidising cheap energy without limit in a nation mostly cut off from legitimate international trade leading to a boom in crypto mining). That's all before the I'm sure entirely coincidental way a lot of the benefits of those misused resources end up in the hands of senior IRGC members.

So y'know, nobody knows what success looks like or how to get it. It's in serious magic wand territory right now. Removing the IRGC and the regime they prop up is a definable operational step, which means it will be confused with a strategic outcome, but it isn't.

It's possible there's some structure-in-waiting among the protestors in Iran who could be helped to assume leadership when the regime falls, but it's certain that none of us know who that is and likely that nobody in the US regime would talk to them if there were, they're not big on other people's self determination.
 

goates

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It's possible there's some structure-in-waiting among the protestors in Iran who could be helped to assume leadership when the regime falls, but it's certain that none of us know who that is and likely that nobody in the US regime would talk to them if there were, they're not big on other people's self determination.
From the reports I've seen, there doesn't seem to be much organization among the protesters, let alone a clear leader or government in waiting. On top of that, the Ayatollahs and IRGC have proven somewhat resilient, so removing Khamenei and a couple generals aren't likely to topple the government either. So yeah, this could easily go sideways for the Iranian people if the US just goes in with blazing without a well thought out plan.
 

concernUrsus

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The alternative version of the "plan" is USA just do not care if Iranians are successful/safe or not. It is to cut off oil and resource to China. For Israel, it is very likely that chaos in Iran is all they want. That may make sense if you look at it with old school geopolitics. Though, that point of view also makes no sense once you spend more than 2 seconds thinking about it. USA may want to slow the raise the China, but I am very sure such actions would carry high risk on military, soft power, and economic.

The more obvious take is the current USA administration do not really know what it is doing. Its leaders just want to do something to make themselves feel involved/important.
 

Zod

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Its not exactly clear what help could be employed. Sanctions are already being escalated.

Military intervention is controversial with no sure bet of success. Moreso if it was employed preemptively.
The point is that Trump encouraged them into the streets with his “Help is on the way” lie.
 

wco81

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The point is that Trump encouraged them into the streets with his “Help is on the way” lie.

Generals would have told him that US would need to put American forces on the ground, since the regime is killing civilians on the streets.

They can't bomb Iran and cause regime change.

Remember Bush 41 encouraged an uprising after the first Gulf War without enforcing a no fly zone. So Saddam just flew his aircraft and helicopters and brutally shut down any uprising.

Iranian civilians don't even have light weapons to counter the guards and loyalist militias.

If they want the people to overthrow the regime, it would take American troops in the streets, probably bringing arms for Iranian civilians to defend themselves.

Trump either forgot or ignored this reality because he opened his mouth.
 
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concernUrsus

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Generals would have told him that US would need to put American forces on the ground, since the regime is killing civilians on the streets.

They can't bomb Iran and cause regime change.

Remember Bush 41 encouraged an uprising after the first Gulf War without enforcing a no fly zone. So Saddam just flew his aircraft and helicopters and brutally shut down any uprising.

Iranian civilians don't even have light weapons to counter the guards and loyalist militias.

If they want the people to overthrow the regime, it would take American troops in the streets, probably bringing arms for Iranian civilians to defend themselves.

Trump either forgot or ignored this reality because he opened his mouth.

The other option is offering money/resources and create some kind of share power system within Iran. Given the water and economic situation, the Iranian leadership may be willing to compromise. That still has a high risk of failure but still better than the "bomb now and bomb more" plan.

Diplomatic would feel a lot less "alpha male" though, and the leadership may not want to look humiliated if diplomacy fails.
 
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AdrianS

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The other option is offering money/resources and create some kind of share power system within Iran. Given the water and economic situation, the Iranian leadership may be willing to compromise. That still has a high risk of failure but still better than the "bomb now and bomb more" plan.

Diplomatic would feel a lot less "alpha male" though, and the leadership may not want to look humiliated if diplomacy fails.

Only a madman would trust any agreement with the Trump regime.
So your suggestion is a non-starter.
 

concernUrsus

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Only a madman would trust any agreement with the Trump regime.
So your suggestion is a non-starter.

China or Europe would have to be involved to support whatever agreement with Trump. Normally, that would involve Russia as well, but I am not sure Russia can support anything at this point.

Obviously, it is a tall order. We could have build on what Obama built over 10 years ago (it was not a great agreement but it was a starting point). Instead, we throw all the work away.
 

m0nckywrench

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The people have no chance. They don't have any weapons while over a million loyalists are armed and won't hesitate to massacre any dissent.
The level of commitment required is so high those without Taliban-tier dedication can't manage it, but there are many different examples of people who did. Protests enable massacre by gathering dissidents. Protests do not attack the enemy where they are weak (they have to live somewhere) and dispersed. Note lack of assassinations of government members and supporters who have not been driven to protected areas.

The Viet Minh showed how becoming ungovernable worked against a lavishly equipped US client regime. Afghans repeated the feat. Deterrence works by consent and is nullified by willingness to die in the fight that others may thrive. Making supporting tyranny terrifyingly dangerous is mandatory to counter opposing terror.

Traditional clothing can hide small arms and IEDs. Chechnya, Nigeria and India, not just the Middle East, are examples.

https://www.act.nato.int/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/c-ied-report-2016-03.pdf

Outsiders want to believe the squabble is "regime" (negative descriptor) against "the people" (positive descriptor).
Outsiders forget "the people" revolted to end the Shah then empowered the Iranian mullocracy (also made of people). Pro-government Iranians are enemy to the rest, so it's for the rebels to end them in detail or be ended in detail. Religious fanaticism is not some adjustable secular ideology.
 
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Technarch

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https://xcancel.com/xiuhongxh/status/2019381108542935329#m

BREAKING: Al Jazeera claims to have obtained the US-Iran deal framework proposed by Turkey, Qatar and Egypt:

1. Iran agrees to commit to zero uranium enrichment for 3 years, and then agrees to under 1.5% enrichment after that

2. Its stockpile of Highly Enriched Uranium would be transferred to a third country

3. Iran agrees to not transfer weapons and technologies to its regional nonstate allies

4. Iran pledges to not initiate the use of Ballistic Missiles

5. Iran and the US agree to a nonaggression agreement

Nothing in there about not slaughtering civilians, of course.
 
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DarthSlack

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Some of that sounds an awful lot like the deal Obama and the EU made with Iran before Trump nuked it (pun intended) in his first term.

Sort of like how USMCA is just NAFTA with a little gold spray-paint here and there. It's almost like Trump never had an original idea in his entire life.
 

Shavano

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The point is that Trump encouraged them into the streets with his “Help is on the way” lie.
And now it's a whole new series of demands unrelated to whatever the protests were about, or to punishing Iran for killing protesters.

Attacking Iran appears to be the goal, to be justified by whatever intrusive thoughts are rattling around Trump's amazing brain.