I would imagine that, after the breaches that led to the decapitation strike, the number of people who know the actual location of Mojtaba Khamenei at any given time is in the single digits.
War with...Iran?
- Thread starter Technarch
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I would imagine that, after the breaches that led to the decapitation strike, the number of people who know the actual location of Mojtaba Khamenei at any given time is in the single digits.
China still does have some reliance on imports but they're also a renewable energy superpower, and if there's an energy crisis (which seems to be where this is headed), they will benefit probably even more than unaffected fossil exporters.
Think about it. What are the responses going to be to $200/bbl oil, and a shortfall in global LNG supplies? Solar, batteries, and electric cars. And they were already moving to renewables domestically at a ferocious rate. If they shift that to what would effectively be wartime priority, they can crank it up even more, and half the world will be lining up to buy their exports to do the same. Then when the dust settles, a huge amount of fossil demand will have been irrevocably destroyed, the rest will be collapsing at an unprecedented rate, and half the planet will be buying their exports as fast as they can.
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Nothing out of character for a bully to pick on someone he thinks he can get away with picking on. But this time it's FAFO, not TACO.
Pick one.
- "Ending Iran's nuclear program", which had been accomplished last year
- "Saving the people of Iran from their oppressive regime", because you can't oppress 150 girls if they're already dead
- "Denying the flow of oil to China", while also denying the flow of oil to everyone else
- "Iran has been an imminent threat for 47 years", for novel definitions of "imminent"
- "Installing a more cooperative regime", a goal which we have actually backslid on as of this morning
- To distract from the Epstein files
- Because Israel and the FBI falsified a report that Iran was behind a recent assassination attempt on Trump
- Because Netanyahu saw an opportunity to sic the U.S. on Iran
What a timeline. Hopefully it'll get pruned shortly.
He'll be in one of the underground cities where he can't be reached.
Here is what I can find for 2024:
Yes, China is a renewable powerhouse...and apparently still consumes a ton of oil--a quarter of all oil which is imported and nearly twice what the US does. Prices going up suddenly in an unplanned and unforeseeable way has to hurt.
They may shift back to coal power. I think China used to buy a lot of coal from Australia and it also have fair amount of coal.
Not sure there has to be a reason other than, "Because I don't like them and want to humble them."
A working State Department (dismantled in Trump's first term) would have spelled out all the consequences, particularly in terms of US relations with other countries, and had a strong hand for arguing against what was done. In Trump 2.0, everyone bows to Trump's whims and provides no pushback.
Fools and their money are often parted... but the real takeaway from that aphorism is that who said it was the rich and wealthy playing the fool? Everyone that voted for trump was the fool here and now they're in the 'parting with their money' phase.
They haven't given a singular goal, and the justifications change every day regardless. They literally can't give a justification or stated end because they have no way to attain anything concrete or useful at this stage. That a third US carrier is now being sent to the region is proof this won't just end as suddenly as it began tomorrow, either.
I'd argue the opposite. Russian was about to be entirely banned on trading oil. Quite literally the trade sanctions were just price caps forcing Russia to price is oil low if it wanted to sell it. But a full ban was set to replace this, said ban just got reversed as soon as Trump started a hot war.
A similar ban on Russian natural gas was supposed to happen Jan 2027... I'd be surprised if it happens at all now. So on both counts, Putin's ass was just saved by Trump. So I don't know why you suddenly think he's a Chinese agent. If anything this war in Iran lends more evidence that Putin really does have Epstein related kompromat on Trump. With global supplies of Patriots rapidly reaching exhaustion the odds of any remaining countries sending any more patriots to Ukraine probably just hit zero, too.
Why wouldn't they? The US already partially lifted sanctions against Russian oil to try and drop the price of oil, so they probably won't be the only ones quickly jumping on cheap Russian crude again.
Could also say nobody ever got as close as now to uncovering what was in the full Epstein files, either. Trump was making all the same noises about starting a war with Iran after he tore up the nuclear agreement back in 2019, only thing is covid happened first.
Trump has always been obsessed with his image, he probably thinks a war will improve his image with people that voted for him same as the military parade. Problem is he fired all the experts in every agency and installed yes men everywhere, even at the pentagon. So they're happy to do whatever he wants, but good luck having it actually done well, or done right.
With Turmp it's probably multiple factors, but I'm starting to suspect it's a combination of kompromat as well as him just being an entitled dictator happy to make people run around and do his bidding. Or throwing a tantrum that someone blackmailed him and he can't do anything about it, who knows.
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Pragmatically, they might allow for coal usage to continue where it can keep costs down for a bit longer, but I suspect overall oil shocks are all the more reason to push renewables.
China is also essentially the world's workshop now, which requires petrochemicals for needs other than energy. Take the items made fully or partially of plastic or rubber, for instance. With Trump's move, the current situation will make many common consumer goods much more expensive worldwide. That alone will make US domestic politics that much more interesting.
A couple of dots I’m connecting:
- Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, exporting knowledge and funds globally to terrorise nations
- the US/Israel war on Iran has killed several layers of leadership and thrown the nation into chaos. What controls are left to keep agents from acting once the central govt is crippled?
- Khomeini was old and in poor health, but now has been martyred. That’s probably the absolute best way for him to die, as an important religious figurehead
- the US now explicitly targets national leaders, both in Venezuela and in Iran. Any restraint is off the table
- the US has dramatically reduced funding to intelligence services, notably the CIA, and placed these agencies under the leadership of morons whose primary skill is sycophancy
When can we expect terrorist cells in the US to start targeting politicians? Is the next Sept-11 coming soon? I feel the US is doing everything possible to motivate terrorists and remove any safeguards against them.
But then again, why harm could any terrorist do that’s worse than what Trump has done? Another few thousand dead are nothing compared to Trump’s toll from his first term. The symbolism of giving the US a bloody nose is terrorism’s only value.
(ETA the martyrdom of Khomeini)
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Regarding China and oil, they share a large border with the world's 2nd largest oil producer. I don't know the details, but what's stopping them from getting oil from Russia?
A lot of drugs are also started out a petrochemicals as well. I guess we can also experience 1970s oil crisis again.. and for the younger generation to experience it the first time.
US "dismayed" and surprised by how much Israel targeted Iranian oil infrastructure last night.
https://apple.news/A8X7HYZUlT4-WVLPdduTUkw
Trump has been played by Netanyahu unless he doesn't mind the markets plummeting, because his cronies probably are ready to buy the rebound. This has been a pattern for the past year, do or say things which cause the market to dive and then rebound quickly.
https://apple.news/A8X7HYZUlT4-WVLPdduTUkw
Trump has been played by Netanyahu unless he doesn't mind the markets plummeting, because his cronies probably are ready to buy the rebound. This has been a pattern for the past year, do or say things which cause the market to dive and then rebound quickly.
Trump is a fan of decapitation strikes. That goes back to his first term. I think he doesn't understand why Iran has not surrendered already, because he doesn't really get that there are organizations that are not fully cults of personality and that can therefore withstand a decapitation. Certainly there was a lot of that with Khomeini, and then again but maybe a less degree with (Ali) Khamenei. I know little about it, really. But I at least can imagine a government that can carry on a war without its former top tiers of politicians and generals because the next in line are capable enough for that.
Khamanei had managed to stay in charge of his system for a long time, and that tells us that he was a capable politician - no other politician was able to outmaneuver him and displace him from that leadership. But that's in part because the system allowed him to appoint the members of the council from which he drew his official authority.
The council picked Mojtaba Khamenei as successor. That is certainly a sign of a council that doesn't think they're beaten yet. They didn't double down and they didn't replace Ali Khamenei with a less ideological, less hostile to America/Israel figure. They could have. It was at least in part to send that message, both to their attackers and to the people of Iran. It could also be a sign of a different kind of weakness - defaulting to the son. But only if there was a more capable leader they could have chosen instead that would also send the same message.
Not likely. OPEC is aiming to keep prices as stable as possible, not punish the US--which was the goal in the 1970s.
But yeah, as a child of the 60s, the 70s energy crisis takes me back. If we get anywhere close to that, the expected electoral bloodbath predicted for this fall will look like a good outcome compared to what would then happen.
Sure, but they're pretty diversified in where they get it: https://www.energypolicy.columbia.e...certain-suppliers-including-those-sanctioned/
So there might be some short term pain, but they can buffer that to an extent, and it's also an enormous boon to them, and a forcing function to close off that vulnerability permanently. Also because of a high degree of centralization and state control, they can just decide to make it a win (turning price shock into domestic stimulus) in ways others can't (Trump won't be doing a Green New Deal).
Very true, but those aren't as price sensitive because the value of the resulting goods is a lot higher than the value of the input commodities. Oil as an energy source where you don't really do anything other than transport, refine, and burn it, is far more sensitive. It'll be felt globally, but in terms of China's domestic economy they'd be reasonably well insulated. There will be some demand destruction, but they also get a huge windfall from increased demand for renewables so they're positioned to win either way.
There too, pharma can deal with the higher prices pretty easily because the value of the resulting goods is far higher than the input commodities. Even in civilized countries with price controls.
Where I'd expect the pinch to be much more worrying is ag.
The most likely outcome is Trump get bored and move on. They will claim some kind of victory such as "killed their enemies". I still do not know what the objective here. Not just from Trump administration, but from Israel as well. Do Israeli really believe that the attack will make Israel safer? I assume they believe that weaken their enemies (but with possibility of higher chaos) is good?
For Netanyahu, safety is counterproductive. From his perspective the more dangerous things are for Israel, the better, because a country poised on the brink of disaster doesn't have time to imprison its corrupt officials.
Obviously, there are fair amount of Israeli support the Iran "war" that are not a fan of Netanyahu. I do wonder if I am the crazy one or may be they are.
This is an insightful article about the Saudi Red Sea oil pipeline, its reasons for being, and a number of cold calculations quantifying the importance of the Strait of Hormuz and how it effects each Gulf oil supplier, and how the pipeline alleviates it somewhat;
https://houseofsaud.com/aramco-east-west-pipeline-red-sea-yanbu-hormuz-bypass/
Annoyingly there is no map in the article. Abqaiq, the start of the pipeline, is just south-west of Bahrain, not exactly confidence inspiring when it comes to Iranian attack. Yanbu (the other end) is north of Jeddah on the Red Sea.
https://houseofsaud.com/aramco-east-west-pipeline-red-sea-yanbu-hormuz-bypass/
Annoyingly there is no map in the article. Abqaiq, the start of the pipeline, is just south-west of Bahrain, not exactly confidence inspiring when it comes to Iranian attack. Yanbu (the other end) is north of Jeddah on the Red Sea.
Unless you have long term contracts with guaranteed prices, where you get your oil from doesn't matter because it is a world market--the prices go up and down due to supply and demand. And you're repeating what I already said above about how China is likely to handle the shock.
In any event, the initial statement is that Trump being an agent of China is nonsensical--they don't gain from oil prices suddenly going up. Maybe when their exposure is less than what it is today, but not now.
Israel doesn't care about deterrence or whatever. They want to kill. After October 7 they were going to kill several times the number of Israeli casualties.
It's just payback, several times over.
That is what they're doing in Gaza and that's what they're going to do to Iran. They've killed thousands of Palestinians. Think they're going to hold back on killing thousands of Iranians?
Probably have some rationalization like "we have to be just as bloodthirsty as the Arab and Iranians, if not more."
75% of OPEC production is bottled up behind the Strait of Hormuz.
The OPEC countries not affected by the closure are Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, plus Venezuela.
As I said upthread, the US has transitioned to being a net exporter, so we'll see spikes in prices but few or no physical shortages. Japan, South Korea, India, etc., are fucked.
The US is a net exporter, but we export it because it is a form we are not geared to make use of. That the overall balance sheet isn't shifting money out of the country does not change it does not mean that much for the consumer. Exxon making a killing on its export does not mean what I pay at the pump isn't up 35% as of this morning when I filled my mother's car.
And that is hurts more in Japan or South Korea is (a) not really a benefit to the US consumer and (b) likely to be a detriment as what they produce and sell to use gets more costly.
If I thought Trump was capable of anything other than zero- and one-dimensional thinking, one might see some higher order plan to....
...heck, why even entertain the possibility? Might as well consider the likelihood of dolphins rising up and taking over the planet.
Edit: Fixed typo/word ommissions
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I mean I'm not privy to the specifics but it would be very unusual for a country importing on the scale China does to not lock in prices with long term contracts. They probably still will, signing contracts now at some lower price as a hedge against a higher price later. For oil sources that take time to ramp like the Alberta tar sands, getting those contracts at a premium now would be the way to get the ball rolling without waiting for prices.
You could describe it as China losing less than others rather than winning, but I think as far as they're concerned that's still winning. Given they've been teetering on oversupply for batteries and PV, this is an enormous boon for them.
There's a lot of countries with huge exposure to LNG availability where spamming PV is one of the only short term mitigations available. I think the LNG impacts are going to be the much more rapidly acute shortage here, more so than oil.
Israel will target "every successor" to the Ayatollah
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-889206
Iran: (Appoints Donald Trump)
Israel:
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-889206
Iran: (Appoints Donald Trump)
Israel:
That's what our Secretary of War thinks:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/08/pete-hegseth-pentagon-trump-iran
Reveling in unbridled viciousness dealing death, cruelty, and disaster from a safe distance with no holds barred.
Don't forget "Israel was going to do it anyway so we had to head off the retaliation."
Or he would be, if this was a valid military operation.
Somehow I don't think preemptive strikes for the express purpose of taking out a country's commander-in-chief just because you don't like him, rather than due to any legitimate threat they pose, would fall into the category of valid targeting.
I read this article from The Atlantic, and I think it fits as well. Basically it calls this "Victory Disease". Basically, the easy victories elsewhere convinced him that this one would be easy too. (Never mind what the experts said... he fired most of them anyway).
Gift link to the Atlantic article.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2...opy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Nothing really. The US will threaten tariffs and sanctions but China has the cards there and has consistently made the Trump regime back off at any turn. They can just stop exporting rare earth metals again.
China will look to minimize any practical effects to their domestic economy, but they have plenty of levers to pull. The US can’t stop every shadow fleet tanker and keep bombing everyone 24-7.
The Air is Unbreathable’: Tehran Shrouded in Cloud of Toxic Smoke After Israel Strikes Fuel Depots
In addition to the endless atrocities being committed, it somehow gets worse.
Perun weighs in on the Iran air/missile war and the (lack of) coherent strategy on both sides:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP_rr859r8w
In particular he goes into the missile stockpiles on both sides and how long they might be expected to last, as well as the current state of Iranian air defenses (highly degraded).
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP_rr859r8w
In particular he goes into the missile stockpiles on both sides and how long they might be expected to last, as well as the current state of Iranian air defenses (highly degraded).
Problem is contracts can be broken. Most have things like war and force majure clauses in them. There's just no way an oil producer would sign a contract so airtight they can't walk away if a huge chunk of production capacity gets wiped out due to war.
I'm pretty certain a lot of these fixed-price oil contracts are now going to either be legally nullified or just flat out ignored. There's simply not going to be enough oil to go around and a lot of companies will look at the fines associated with breaking contract vs what they can sell the oil for on the open market and just laugh all the way to the bank.
I am aware, but this isn't force majeur clauses for the Strait of Hormuz, this would also be like, Brazil, or Malaysia, and as far as I know they're not impacted.
Hillary also campaigned on pulling out of the TPP
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politi...he-does-not-support-trans-pacific-partnership
"Now" is the wrong timeframe. Israel can go on being a genocidal apartheid state as long as the US can give it the weapons and diplomatic cover to do so. But that situation is coming to an end, and Russia, China, or the EU will be far less likely to and capable of propping them up. A minority population of racists on a small strip of land will find themselves in a precarious position.