Florida’s new surgeon general skeptical of vaccines, opposes masks

Ladapo signed the Great Barrington Declaration and suggests embracing "the reality of viral spread."

Read the whole story

 

[Rookie_MIB]

I'm just totally stunned that someone with any sort of 'real' medical education would question the value of vaccines. About the only good thing is that after this is all said and done, the land down in Florida should be affordable...

 

[Stern]

About the only good thing is that after this is all said and done, the land down in Florida should be affordable...

It's not a good long-term investment though.

 

[Bloater51]

If Lapado can persuade De Santos of the good sense of all that and convey the message clearly to Florida's residents well and good. But do you suggest that the governor would have made the appointment if Lapado had said that at interview?

It's basically what he said. Vaccinations work for reducing the severity, but they won't stop the spread of COVID. Hence "the reality of viral spread."

The Great Barrington Declaration was problematic before there were vaccines and before Delta. Even in Florida, 95%+ of people over 65 have at least one dose of the vaccine. And now, no serious public health official will claim it's possible to eradicate COVID anymore and bring cases to zero. It's endemic and will circulate much like the flu, and probably lead to a similar order of deaths per year.

That's what leads to the opposition to mask mandates. By all means, wear one if you want. You'll still get COVID -- it's just a matter of time. So it's not clear why shutting those mandates down is any less rational a policy than e.g. San Francisco mandating them even in places that have a vaccine mandate. And we see how SF just seemingly isn't enforcing it; at least not for some people. What could possibly go wrong with selective enforcement by the police...

This is a highly political appointment. If the intention is really to push past the peak and return to 'normal' as rapidly as possible, then the message to get vaccinated needs to be promulgated clearly and unambiguously. And dismissing masks and other infection controls in order to achieve natural herd immunity quickly means accepting a very high level of cases, especially as they are headed into the the winter season.

The alternative would be to smooth out the load on hospitals and allowing immunity to build gradually. Because there is every reason to believe that if the body is challenged by a small viral load, especially if the immune system is already primed, that makes it much more likely that the body will successfully fight it off than if subjected to much higher loads. Which is the point of masks and other controls especially in places of high risk.

So the question remains. Has De Santos seen the light and appointed Lapado to outflank opponents and speak truth unto Florida? Or has Lapado accepted the post knowing that De Santos will not push vaccination hard, and that current policy risks overwhelming hospitals and increasing total excess deaths both as a direct consequence and because people will have had less time to build immunity? Generalised statements about vaccination only being a part of a wider strategy of healthy living do not answer these questions. And what exactly is his plan? Drink more orange juice?

 

[Papewaio]

From the article:

"The state should be promoting good health, and vaccination isn't the only path to that," Ladapo said. "It's been treated almost like a religion, and that's just senseless. There's a lot of good pathways to health, and vaccination is not the only one. So, we support measures for good health—that's vaccination, losing weight, it's exercising more, it's eating more fruits and vegetables, everything. We support it all."

To be clear, while losing weight, exercising, and eating fruits and vegetables are generally good for health, they will not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection or transmission.

Given how transmissible Delta is, neither does the vaccine. A 90% reduction in the likelihood of infection doesn't matter much if you integrate the risk over the next 5 years. So you avoid COVID in 2021 and you'll get it in 2022 or 2023 if you forgo travel and take a series of other precautions. The reality is that even those of us who are fully vaccinated will eventually get infected -- and for almost all of us, it'll be so mild that we'll barely notice.

In that light, it's absolutely worth talking about tradeoffs. If wearing masks were entirely costless, why didn't the attendees of the Met Gala wear them? Why didn't the SF mayor when she went to a packed club (even though a mask mandate was in effect)? Evidently, it's not completely costless. More importantly, if people don't go to the gym because working out with a mask is really annoying, then we have to balance the costs from worse cardiovascular health with the reduction in COVID exposure.

We're just largely incapable to have conversations around tradeoffs. So places like SF have mask mandates even in places where everyone needs to be vaccinated. And places like Florida prohibit mask mandates even in places where they make sense. Because polarization means we need to occupy the extremes of possible responses, rather than look for a sensible middle ground.

From the Idaho thread:
“ Of the patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 90 percent are unvaccinated, as are 98 percent of ICU patients.”

That is a state which is almost 50/50 vaccinated/unvaccinated (41% fully vaccinated).

So roughly fifty times more likely ending up in the ICU. Now the more people who vaccinate the less total amount of cases and of those less and less extreme outcomes. So it isn’t a simple case of saying a 90% reduction in risk for the individual when exposed, you have to include how many are vaccinated overall to figure out the chance of exposure too.

Of course, vaccines work and vaccinated people are much less likely to be hospitalized. But there are two different objectives and both your response and the Ars article conflate them:

(1) reduce transmission, prevent more cases
(2) reduce the severity of cases, prevent hospitalizations/deaths

Vaccines clearly help with (2), but they're unlikely to prevent someone from getting infected in the long run. So as an individual who is vaccinated, it's very likely not worth passing on activities to avoid infection: it's just delaying the inevitable. For a public health official to say this is just being upfront with people. You'll hear the same in much of Europe, the UK, or Israel. Herd immunity and containment are out of the picture.

Florida's surgeon general saying that we should also invest in other ways to improve people's health is consistent with objective (2). The Ars article highlighting that this doesn't prevent infection is needlessly snarky: that's not the claim, nor is it the objective for anyone who is being upfront about what can be achieved.

As for the role of obesity: https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-res ... conditions

The researchers estimated that more than 900,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations occurred through November 2020. Based on their model, 30% of these hospitalizations were attributable to obesity, 26% to hypertension, 21% to diabetes, and 12% to heart failure. These people would still have been infected with COVID-19, but likely would not have been sick enough to need hospitalization.

More than one of these conditions are often present in the same person. The model also estimated hospitalizations due to different combinations. The numbers weren’t simply additive. In total, 64% of the hospitalizations might have been prevented if not for the four conditions.

If we didn't have an obesity epidemic, we'd have had many fewer deaths and hospitals would not be under the strain they are. Seems like something that should be mentioned, no?

Except as already mentioned in this thread Singapore (80% vaccinated) with 6x the population of Idaho (40% fully vaccinated) has the same number of cases. That is 1/6th the number of cases per capita. Not only is there proportional less cases so is the severity of those cases.

Why? Because a vaccine trains the immune system now to eliminate viruses. A vaccinated individual gets less sick most of the time. The sickness, all other things being equal, is proportional to how much the virus replicates and feeds off the host. Vaccinated people are less ill because they have less of the virus, this in turn lessens the amount that is spread.

Just compare the per capita amount of cases in higher vaccinated areas vs less vaccinated ones. This is a trend that is seen again and again. Is there other factors like population density, General health of individuals, healthcare system etc - yes. But it’s fairly trivial to see that areas that have higher vaccination rates have less cases.

This is how vaccines work, higher the vaccinated population percentage the less the spread. There is no reason to think that COVID is unique in how vaccines blunt its spread.

 

[Cthel]

And dismissing masks and other infection controls in order to achieve natural herd immunity quickly means accepting a very high level of cases, especially as they are headed into the the winter season.

Correct. They're getting the surge in ahead of the winter season in the expectation that it's inevitable and will be worse if delayed. One can agree or disagree with the assessment, but it doesn't come out of maliciousness or stupidity. Florida's cases and hospitalization are down 35% from two weeks ago.

The alternative would be to smooth out the load on hospitals and allowing immunity to build gradually.

Yes, which is what states like NY and CA are pursuing. The question is smoothing out over how long? They can put half the strain on hospitals if they spread cases out over twice as long. So if Florida's path leads to COVID fizzling out sometime in the Spring, then NY/CA's path would have it ongoing for another year or so. If mutations arise, that may reset the clock to some extent.

Nobody, however, is talking about how long they anticipate these policies to be in place. It's fine to favor a mask mandate in all indoor spaces for the next 12 months, but let's be clear that's what people are asking for.

And we should then actually enforce those mandates for everyone. We shouldn't have a party like the Emmies be a "television production event" where masks aren't required. Maybe we should also enforce it in clubs that San Francisco's mayor attends. And we could enforce mask mandates at the Met Gala. But, of course, that won't happen.

Much like the cast of Fox & Friends is fully vaccinated while railing against vaccines, prominent progressive figures will party unmasked while talking up the importance of everyone wearing masks. The boring "middle ground" is that both sides are, in private, vaccinated, maskless, and hanging out in large groups. Despite what either of them say in public.

So the question remains. Has De Santos seen the light and appointed Lapado to outflank opponents and speak truth unto Florida?

One can disagree with his strategy, but he's been consistent in the policy response. So this doesn't reflect a change as much as a continuation of what they have been doing.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Florida's deaths per 100k population has been pretty much the middle of the pack: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... thsper100k

241 per 100k vs. the US average of 203. Massachusetts is at 268, but doesn't seem to get any flack. And as always, you don't call the score until the game is over.

How does the CDC get accurate death counts for Florida when Florida had been...let's be generous and say "formatting"...the case and death counts they report publicly for the past year?

 

[ZippyPeanut]

Socialism, social democracy, democratic socialism, whatever you want to call it… it’s the crazy idea that everyone pools some of their resources to help each other out when they need some of those resources.

e.g. Social Security

e.g Insurance pools.
e.g. Church collection plates
e.g. The Red Cross
Damn those socialists!

Is anyone more evil than the Red Cross? They come into an area and just give away what a budding entropenuer could make a fortune on!

Says Quark to the Grand Nagus.

 

[Papewaio]

And dismissing masks and other infection controls in order to achieve natural herd immunity quickly means accepting a very high level of cases, especially as they are headed into the the winter season.

Correct. They're getting the surge in ahead of the winter season in the expectation that it's inevitable and will be worse if delayed. One can agree or disagree with the assessment, but it doesn't come out of maliciousness or stupidity. Florida's cases and hospitalization are down 35% from two weeks ago.

The alternative would be to smooth out the load on hospitals and allowing immunity to build gradually.

Yes, which is what states like NY and CA are pursuing. The question is smoothing out over how long? They can put half the strain on hospitals if they spread cases out over twice as long. So if Florida's path leads to COVID fizzling out sometime in the Spring, then NY/CA's path would have it ongoing for another year or so. If mutations arise, that may reset the clock to some extent.

Nobody, however, is talking about how long they anticipate these policies to be in place. It's fine to favor a mask mandate in all indoor spaces for the next 12 months, but let's be clear that's what people are asking for.

And we should then actually enforce those mandates for everyone. We shouldn't have a party like the Emmies be a "television production event" where masks aren't required. Maybe we should also enforce it in clubs that San Francisco's mayor attends. And we could enforce mask mandates at the Met Gala. But, of course, that won't happen.

Much like the cast of Fox & Friends is fully vaccinated while railing against vaccines, prominent progressive figures will party unmasked while talking up the importance of everyone wearing masks. The boring "middle ground" is that both sides are, in private, vaccinated, maskless, and hanging out in large groups. Despite what either of them say in public.

So the question remains. Has De Santos seen the light and appointed Lapado to outflank opponents and speak truth unto Florida?

One can disagree with his strategy, but he's been consistent in the policy response. So this doesn't reflect a change as much as a continuation of what they have been doing.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Florida's deaths per 100k population has been pretty much the middle of the pack: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... thsper100k

241 per 100k vs. the US average of 203. Massachusetts is at 268, but doesn't seem to get any flack. And as always, you don't call the score until the game is over.

The US average is appalling by first world standards. So having a rate 20% higher than appalling isn’t something to applaud.

241 deaths per 100k ranks between Argentina and Slovakia.

 

[ZippyPeanut]

I'm absolutely OK with FL and TX seceding from the rest of us, and just letting them spiral down to their inevitable conclusion. Sorry (not sorry).

Make sure we keep the subs in Nukes.

The subs are the property of the people of the United States. If a foreign power attempts to claim them sink the fuckers.

That's the problem with the 'STATES RIGHTS!' argument. The citizens of South Carolina broke into and robbed the property of The United States and then fired on citizens of their nation with captured ordnance.
OR
They broke into and robbed the property of a foreign power and used that ordnance against armed forces of a foreign power.

Either way, the Confederate States of America were an armed insurrection against the legally elected government of the United States of America and dealt with accordingly.
I have no problem with any state wishing to secede as they would starve within a month. They'd come to their senses a bit quicker than the last time.

Why, exactly, would California starve if we were ever so lucky as to develop the political will to peacefully secede from the US? I wholeheartedly agree that it's important not to try to secede by attacking U.S. military bases and shooting US soldiers. Just start negotiations about what share of the national debt we take with us and what federal assets get transferred to us. If there was consensus in California in favor of secession (there isn't), I'm pretty sure Congress would eventually pass a law blessing it.

Well, as a non-Californian, I'd bless it.

 

[Soriak]

How does the CDC get accurate death counts for Florida when Florida had been...let's be generous and say "formatting"...the case and death counts they report publicly for the past year?

The state reports weekly counts, so the 7-day average won't be affected by reporting frequency. Nobody has presented any evidence, and no mainstream paper has reported, that these data are incorrect. If this happened, it'd be a front-page NYT story.

The US average is appalling by first world standards. So having a rate 20% higher than appalling isn’t something to applaud.

241 deaths per 100k ranks between Argentina and Slovakia.

I think that's where the general health of the population also comes in. The US has a much higher obesity rate than most other countries -- so this was going to be worse than in a lot of other countries, no matter what.

But it also reflects a tradeoff that the US made differently from many other countries. We never had a lockdown that prevented us from leaving our homes. In Australia, the police can do door-to-door checks to make sure nobody is having guests over. Yes, the latter is much more effective at reducing cases -- and it comes with a cost to quality of life. It's been going on not just for a few days, after all, and it may be ongoing for months to come.

 

[Narayana]

Good to see that the US continues with its fine tradition of coming to the right conclusion by trying every other possibility first ...

 

[Papewaio]

How does the CDC get accurate death counts for Florida when Florida had been...let's be generous and say "formatting"...the case and death counts they report publicly for the past year?

The state reports weekly counts, so the 7-day average won't be affected by reporting frequency. Nobody has presented any evidence, and no mainstream paper has reported, that these data are incorrect. If this happened, it'd be a front-page NYT story.

The US average is appalling by first world standards. So having a rate 20% higher than appalling isn’t something to applaud.

241 deaths per 100k ranks between Argentina and Slovakia.

I think that's where the general health of the population also comes in. The US has a much higher obesity rate than most other countries -- so this was going to be worse than in a lot of other countries, no matter what.

But it also reflects a tradeoff that the US made differently from many other countries. We never had a lockdown that prevented us from leaving our homes. In Australia, the police can do door-to-door checks to make sure nobody is having guests over. Yes, the latter is much more effective at reducing cases -- and it comes with a cost to quality of life. It's been going on not just for a few days, after all, and it may be ongoing for months to come.

I’m in Australia (NSW). I work from home for emergency services.

It isn’t everyone who gets checked, just those who are under health orders to stay at home. Those are typically COVID positive and self isolating at home or those who have been identified as exposed to COVID and yet to finish the quarantine period.

My lockdown in my local government area (LGA) means I can get takeaway but not sit in. I can go to the beach, Bush walks, cycling etc. if I’m exercising then no mask is required and this applies to walking the dog. I do wear a mask when purchasing food or going to the supermarket.

All this so we have 5 deaths per 100k. Where I come from originally it’s 0.5 deaths per 100k.

Edit: Spelling

 

[Wheels Of Confusion]

At least a third of them have boners for Armageddon. I just can't believe this shi!'s really happening.

The right wing of American politics has been sick in the head since Reagan at least, and they've increasingly backed indefensible things in the face of overwhelming evidence that not-Republican policies are almost always better. Part of the indoctrination is religious radicalization. They call themselves "conservatives" but they're really extremists; their positions are uniquely positioned far to the right among "Mainstream" politics as shown by our economic and cultural peer nations. Their values are starkly at odds with the ideals of the founding documents of the US. They're openly anti-Enlightenment.
The only thing different now is how much it's come to a frothing head and suffused absolutely everything in American life. Even responding to this disease has been polarized by Republicans as something partisan, in defiance of all common sense and common ground and objective science.

 

[gsgrego]

Ah the republican pro lifers. Let women die in child birth along with the baby, let them starve to death, and now just force them to get ill and die.

 

[PurpleChair]

Socialism, social democracy, democratic socialism, whatever you want to call it… it’s the crazy idea that everyone pools some of their resources to help each other out when they need some of those resources.

Oh, yes, it's totally insane that I have had:
1 - eye surgery at age 2
2 - tonsils removed at age 4
3 - 2 major surgeries to my legs when I was 7, because I have cerebral palsae
4 - a surgery at 20 because I had a collapsed lung
5 - 2 major surgeries to my feet when I was 23 because I have cerebral palsae
6 - 1 night in the hospital 4 years ago due to a cellulite infection
7 - 4 nights in an Italian hospital 2 years ago due to a cellulite infection
and I am NOT broke. In fact, I have been paying about EUR 120 per month with a maximum copayment of EUR 350 per year, for all of the above. And no, there were no waiting lists. And nobody else is broke because of this.

Oh, and my city council provided me with a wheelchair, a battery-powered handbike and a chairlift. For free. And wait for it: I earn about twice the average salary here in the Netherlands, because of the support I got. So, one might say that the government is earning back their investment in taxes

That's not socialism. That's just evolution of the human species. Life is better here than 100 years ago. How terrible!

(and now I am starting to think you were being sarcastic.....oh well

 

[Basil Forthrightly]

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Florida's deaths per 100k population has been pretty much the middle of the pack: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... thsper100k

241 per 100k vs. the US average of 203. Massachusetts is at 268, but doesn't seem to get any flack. And as always, you don't call the score until the game is over.

You absolutely cannot compare death rates from the beginning of the pandemic with rates during the Delta wave.

Boston got seeded with a major superspreader event in spring 2000, the original variant took off and Massachusetts, along with New York, was the first US confirmation that the COVID epidemic would cause massive death.

Since then, we’ve vastly improved treatment protocols, developed monoclonal antibody treatments, discovered that remdesivir has some effect to reduce mortality if used at the right time.

Since then, we’ve finally convinced the medical community that their knowledge of airborne TB infections doesn’t apply at all to COVID; we’ve verified the efficacy of good masking, mostly eliminated useless surface cleaning (useless relative to COVID), recognized the importance of airflow in confined spaces, and limited mass gatherings in various ways.

Oh, and since then, we’ve developed a very efficacious vaccine and made it freely available to everyone.

But Florida still has excess mortality that’s flabbergasting; very well above the national rate.

The only reason to compare Massachusetts and Florida over the entire pandemic is to defend a governor who’s BS has contributed to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths, and currently runs at thousands per week.

 

[Dr. Jay]

How the fuck does someone like this earn a medical degree? It's like Boeing hiring a Chief Engineer that doesn't believe in the principles of aerodynamics....oh, wait, maybe that explains it all.

What do you call someone who graduated medical school at the bottom of their class?

Doctor.

Ideally, you don't call him a professor at a UC medical school.

C'mon, UCLA, you're dragging down the whole UC system hiring a guy like this. I shouldn't tease though. I have a vague memory of a Berkeley professor being about this far in denial. Maybe he was arguing that he'd invented a perpetual motion machine, or denying that global warming is a thing, I don't really remember, but every good school occasionally hires a loon.

You're probably thinking of Peter Deusberg, who was one of the big denialisms about the HIV/AIDS connection.

 

[Pewmaymen]

It's clear the real effort in Florida and other states is to cement Republican party control over the state, in perpetuity, as they drive out people who would otherwise have no objection to remaining in the state.

Short-term (4-8 months) this might work. But long term, this seems like a net negative. If you cause your constituent base to die off in droves, something tells me that you won't have a constituent base for long. You do want to make it past this fall's voting cycle as a viable party in the state, right? Right?

 

[gsgrego]

It's clear the real effort in Florida and other states is to cement Republican party control over the state, in perpetuity, as they drive out people who would otherwise have no objection to remaining in the state.

Short-term (4-8 months) this might work. But long term, this seems like a net negative. If you cause your constituent base to die off in droves, something tells me that you won't have a constituent base for long. You do want to make it past this fall's voting cycle as a viable party in the state, right? Right?

Voting? What is that communist bs? You must hate merica! Trump won! All biden votes were fake from China and Hillary!

But seriously. Their plan is to take voting out of the picture.

 

[BasP]

It's clear the real effort in Florida and other states is to cement Republican party control over the state, in perpetuity, as they drive out people who would otherwise have no objection to remaining in the state.

Short-term (4-8 months) this might work. But long term, this seems like a net negative. If you cause your constituent base to die off in droves, something tells me that you won't have a constituent base for long. You do want to make it past this fall's voting cycle as a viable party in the state, right? Right?

Voting? What is that communist bs? You must hate merica! Trump won! All biden votes were fake from China and Hillary!

But seriously. Their plan is to take voting out of the picture.

Or technically, to keep the voting process but not have the results matter. That way they can still say they’re a democracy and still try to kill as many people as they can, which seems to be the end goal.

 

[gsgrego]

It's clear the real effort in Florida and other states is to cement Republican party control over the state, in perpetuity, as they drive out people who would otherwise have no objection to remaining in the state.

Short-term (4-8 months) this might work. But long term, this seems like a net negative. If you cause your constituent base to die off in droves, something tells me that you won't have a constituent base for long. You do want to make it past this fall's voting cycle as a viable party in the state, right? Right?

Voting? What is that communist bs? You must hate merica! Trump won! All biden votes were fake from China and Hillary!

But seriously. Their plan is to take voting out of the picture.

Or technically, to keep the voting process but not have the results matter. That way they can still say they’re a democracy and still try to kill as many people as they can, which seems to be the end goal.

Just like their beloved Russia.

 

[BasP]

It's clear the real effort in Florida and other states is to cement Republican party control over the state, in perpetuity, as they drive out people who would otherwise have no objection to remaining in the state.

Short-term (4-8 months) this might work. But long term, this seems like a net negative. If you cause your constituent base to die off in droves, something tells me that you won't have a constituent base for long. You do want to make it past this fall's voting cycle as a viable party in the state, right? Right?

Voting? What is that communist bs? You must hate merica! Trump won! All biden votes were fake from China and Hillary!

But seriously. Their plan is to take voting out of the picture.

Or technically, to keep the voting process but not have the results matter. That way they can still say they’re a democracy and still try to kill as many people as they can, which seems to be the end goal.

Just like their beloved Russia.

Top Republicans like Mitch McConnell don’t skip the most importand celebration of the United States as a country for many reasons, but making secret deals in Moscow is one of those things that’s ever so slightly more important than the founding of their own country.

 

[JohnDeL]

And, in related news, DeSantis has just doubled-down on the stupid by issuing an order that forces schools to allow children who have been exposed to the coronavirus but aren't yet showing symptoms to attend classes.

For those of you who wonder why this matters, may I introduce Typhoid Mary?

 

[gsgrego]

And, in related news, DeSantis has just doubled-down on the stupid by issuing an order that forces schools to allow children who have been exposed to the coronavirus but aren't yet showing symptoms to attend classes.

For those of you who wonder why this matters, may I introduce Typhoid Mary?

Hey. It doesn't matter if a few kids die just force women in the state to give birth.

 

[ZippyPeanut]

Socialism, social democracy, democratic socialism, whatever you want to call it… it’s the crazy idea that everyone pools some of their resources to help each other out when they need some of those resources.

Oh, yes, it's totally insane that I have had:
1 - eye surgery at age 2
2 - tonsils removed at age 4
3 - 2 major surgeries to my legs when I was 7, because I have cerebral palsae
4 - a surgery at 20 because I had a collapsed lung
5 - 2 major surgeries to my feet when I was 23 because I have cerebral palsae
6 - 1 night in the hospital 4 years ago due to a cellulite infection
7 - 4 nights in an Italian hospital 2 years ago due to a cellulite infection
and I am NOT broke. In fact, I have been paying about EUR 120 per month with a maximum copayment of EUR 350 per year, for all of the above. And no, there were no waiting lists. And nobody else is broke because of this.

Oh, and my city council provided me with a wheelchair, a battery-powered handbike and a chairlift. For free. And wait for it: I earn about twice the average salary here in the Netherlands, because of the support I got. So, one might say that the government is earning back their investment in taxes

That's not socialism. That's just evolution of the human species. Life is better here than 100 years ago. How terrible!

(and now I am starting to think you were being sarcastic.....oh well

Well, evolution in the Netherlands is proceeding along at about 50 to 1 of the pace it's proceeding in the United States. Your government and culture is in symbiosis with the evolution of the human species. The U.S. government and culture(s) seem to be working feverishly to be in symbiosis with de-evolution.

 

[Dragonmaster Lou]

Socialism, social democracy, democratic socialism, whatever you want to call it… it’s the crazy idea that everyone pools some of their resources to help each other out when they need some of those resources.

Oh, yes, it's totally insane that I have had:
1 - eye surgery at age 2
2 - tonsils removed at age 4
3 - 2 major surgeries to my legs when I was 7, because I have cerebral palsae
4 - a surgery at 20 because I had a collapsed lung
5 - 2 major surgeries to my feet when I was 23 because I have cerebral palsae
6 - 1 night in the hospital 4 years ago due to a cellulite infection
7 - 4 nights in an Italian hospital 2 years ago due to a cellulite infection
and I am NOT broke. In fact, I have been paying about EUR 120 per month with a maximum copayment of EUR 350 per year, for all of the above. And no, there were no waiting lists. And nobody else is broke because of this.

Oh, and my city council provided me with a wheelchair, a battery-powered handbike and a chairlift. For free. And wait for it: I earn about twice the average salary here in the Netherlands, because of the support I got. So, one might say that the government is earning back their investment in taxes

That's not socialism. That's just evolution of the human species. Life is better here than 100 years ago. How terrible!

(and now I am starting to think you were being sarcastic.....oh well

Well, evolution in the Netherlands is proceeding along at about 50 to 1 of the pace it's proceeding in the United States. Your government and culture is in symbiosis with the evolution of the human species. The U.S. government and culture(s) seem to be working feverishly to be in symbiosis with de-evolution.

Admittedly, some of the crap I've been seeing in the US compared to much of Europe really makes me want to finish my paperwork to get my EU dual citizenship. I'd rather not move overseas, but I find having the option in my back pocket to be comforting.

 

[JoHBE]

ScienceBasedMedicine has a more thorough takedown of Lapdoggo:

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/dr-jos ... n-florida/

"Perhaps as the weight of his new job as protector of the public health settles in, his willingness to pontificate about matters outside the scope of his education and training will abate and he will again have the wisdom to listen to those with the formal training and experience necessary to effectively combat the pandemic. Of course, if that happens, he will likely be out of a job"

 

[Random_stranger]

So, they have decided to give up on 5-10% of their population. Sadly, herd immunity may be a pipedream, based on the Spanish Study of antibodies

i suspect most bigger businesses in Florida will install mandates for their employees if they haven't already.

Hasn't Florida already BANNED mandates for schools? Not sure if companies are included in that ban, but wouldn't surprise me if they are also similarly banned from requiring masks / vaccinations.

 

[Random_stranger]

Joseph Ladapo, a UCLA researcher known for opposing evidence-based mask mandates, vaccine mandates, and lockdowns.

Another fucking idiot.

But he's a well-educated idiot. Every time someone highlights the clear evidentiary failures of Florida public health policy, De Santis will say, "Dr. Lapado says differently and he's got an MD/PhD from Harvard. You're just some reporter repeating the fake media paranoia and fear."

Odds are today or tomorrow, Florida will have 400 deaths in a day (yesterday was 398). Their surgeon general's response, "there's a lot of good pathways to health, and vaccination is not the only one. So, we support measures for good health—that's vaccination, losing weight, it's exercising more, it's eating more fruits and vegetables, everything. We support it all."

One irony is that his research specialty is on health economics (cost-effectiveness). So I wonder if he's compared the $2100/infusion for monoclonal antibodies versus $20/shot vaccine?

No, but I'm sure he's compared DeSantis' biggest donor's $XX million in Regeneron stock holdings, vs same donor's relatively smaller holdings of Pfizer / Moderna.

 

[The DCG]

Probably closer to 60% is accurate. The older estimates that put the number at 30% likely were a heavily underestimated the death toll.

We also don't know for certain if it reached herd immunity or if it burned out for other reasons. We do know it would regularly come back for centuries with new waves that would leave devastation in their wake.

Apropos of the bubonic plague, it's disappointing we don't have good numbers on the deaths in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Just "recorded an epidemic" or the like. Probably make the estimated world-wide deaths even more horrifying.

 

[ZippyPeanut]

Socialism, social democracy, democratic socialism, whatever you want to call it… it’s the crazy idea that everyone pools some of their resources to help each other out when they need some of those resources.

Oh, yes, it's totally insane that I have had:
1 - eye surgery at age 2
2 - tonsils removed at age 4
3 - 2 major surgeries to my legs when I was 7, because I have cerebral palsae
4 - a surgery at 20 because I had a collapsed lung
5 - 2 major surgeries to my feet when I was 23 because I have cerebral palsae
6 - 1 night in the hospital 4 years ago due to a cellulite infection
7 - 4 nights in an Italian hospital 2 years ago due to a cellulite infection
and I am NOT broke. In fact, I have been paying about EUR 120 per month with a maximum copayment of EUR 350 per year, for all of the above. And no, there were no waiting lists. And nobody else is broke because of this.

Oh, and my city council provided me with a wheelchair, a battery-powered handbike and a chairlift. For free. And wait for it: I earn about twice the average salary here in the Netherlands, because of the support I got. So, one might say that the government is earning back their investment in taxes

That's not socialism. That's just evolution of the human species. Life is better here than 100 years ago. How terrible!

(and now I am starting to think you were being sarcastic.....oh well

Well, evolution in the Netherlands is proceeding along at about 50 to 1 of the pace it's proceeding in the United States. Your government and culture is in symbiosis with the evolution of the human species. The U.S. government and culture(s) seem to be working feverishly to be in symbiosis with de-evolution.

Admittedly, some of the crap I've been seeing in the US compared to much of Europe really makes me want to finish my paperwork to get my EU dual citizenship. I'd rather not move overseas, but I find having the option in my back pocket to be comforting.

Most definitely. I was a little comforted when Biden won the election, but I'm still on edge. Given the exposed delicacy of the supply chain (exposed by covid) and given the fragility of peace in the United States (shown by Trump and his supporters) and given the high levels of hostility, stupidity, and hatred (again, shown by Trump and his supporters), I'd find it very comforting to have the option to jet the fuck out of here on a moment's notice with the protection of a decent European country's citizenship protections. Right now all I've got is the second amendment; and though that appeals to my baser predilections, it's not very comforting.

 

[tonylurker]

And dismissing masks and other infection controls in order to achieve natural herd immunity quickly means accepting a very high level of cases, especially as they are headed into the the winter season.

Correct. They're getting the surge in ahead of the winter season in the expectation that it's inevitable and will be worse if delayed. One can agree or disagree with the assessment, but it doesn't come out of maliciousness or stupidity. Florida's cases and hospitalization are down 35% from two weeks ago.

Are they? Despite the astronomical numbers of cases in Florida, there is still a sizable population that hasn't yet caught this and is primed for infection and re-infection. I would be surprised if this back-to-school surge isn't duplicated by the winter holiday surge.

<snip for brevity>

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Florida's deaths per 100k population has been pretty much the middle of the pack: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... thsper100k

241 per 100k vs. the US average of 203. Massachusetts is at 268, but doesn't seem to get any flack. And as always, you don't call the score until the game is over.

But have you paid attention to how fast they've risen and are still rising? They are at 242 per 100k now and are increasing at a 7 day average rate of 1.8 deaths per 100k per day. (up 15% in the last 7 days) At that rate they'll pass Massachusetts by next month and are likely to do what Mississippi did and pass all the northeastern states. Probably by the end of the year.

As has already been stated, comparing the death rate now, when there has been massive progress in learning how to treat the disease, with the death rates in the northeast when there was no testing, overwhelmed hospitals, and little experience or any knowledge of how to manage the disease to reduce deaths is more than a bit disingenuous.

 

[Random_stranger]

Joseph Ladapo, a UCLA researcher known for opposing evidence-based mask mandates, vaccine mandates, and lockdowns.

Another fucking idiot.

Haha, you are calling a Harvard Med school graduate, with a PhD in public health policy, and trained at a top tier center an idiot. Your Kool Aid must be tasty.

Yeah, we are. Because this idiot is clearly not going with science, and clearly doesn't give a shit for the lives of people in the state he's going to serve. He was clearly just hired to regurgitate DeSantis' talking points.

He's far, far more dangerous than just affecting his own state. Others will use him as an example, pointing to his credentials, and further undermine the vaccination/masking/distancing efforts.

Except when the debate is about 'facts' as opposed to appealing to authority/credentials. Epidemiology, virology, immunology, and physiology aren't aligned with political parties or ideology. Any 'data' he utilizes to support specious arguments will be easily refuted. The 7 states currently consuming 70% of the national supply of monoclonal antibodies are FL, LA, TX, TN, MS, GA, AL. Hmm what do those states have in common?

The most grift?

 

[Properjob70]

And dismissing masks and other infection controls in order to achieve natural herd immunity quickly means accepting a very high level of cases, especially as they are headed into the the winter season.

Correct. They're getting the surge in ahead of the winter season in the expectation that it's inevitable and will be worse if delayed. One can agree or disagree with the assessment, but it doesn't come out of maliciousness or stupidity. Florida's cases and hospitalization are down 35% from two weeks ago.

The alternative would be to smooth out the load on hospitals and allowing immunity to build gradually.

Yes, which is what states like NY and CA are pursuing. The question is smoothing out over how long? They can put half the strain on hospitals if they spread cases out over twice as long. So if Florida's path leads to COVID fizzling out sometime in the Spring, then NY/CA's path would have it ongoing for another year or so. If mutations arise, that may reset the clock to some extent.

Nobody, however, is talking about how long they anticipate these policies to be in place. It's fine to favor a mask mandate in all indoor spaces for the next 12 months, but let's be clear that's what people are asking for.

And we should then actually enforce those mandates for everyone. We shouldn't have a party like the Emmies be a "television production event" where masks aren't required. Maybe we should also enforce it in clubs that San Francisco's mayor attends. And we could enforce mask mandates at the Met Gala. But, of course, that won't happen.

Much like the cast of Fox & Friends is fully vaccinated while railing against vaccines, prominent progressive figures will party unmasked while talking up the importance of everyone wearing masks. The boring "middle ground" is that both sides are, in private, vaccinated, maskless, and hanging out in large groups. Despite what either of them say in public.

So the question remains. Has De Santos seen the light and appointed Lapado to outflank opponents and speak truth unto Florida?

One can disagree with his strategy, but he's been consistent in the policy response. So this doesn't reflect a change as much as a continuation of what they have been doing.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Florida's deaths per 100k population has been pretty much the middle of the pack: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... thsper100k

241 per 100k vs. the US average of 203. Massachusetts is at 268, but doesn't seem to get any flack. And as always, you don't call the score until the game is over.

The US average is appalling by first world standards. So having a rate 20% higher than appalling isn’t something to applaud.

241 deaths per 100k ranks between Argentina and Slovakia.

The states that got hit hardest pre-vaccines (the NE states that really copped it in wave 1) are now starting to be knocked off the top slots by the low vax states (Mississippi now occupies that top slot with Louisiana in 3rd)
There is no reason to believe that (this side of Feb 2022) a drop in rate to anywhere near zero is possible.
The high vax states will likely follow what happens in Europe high vax states and stay within tolerable limits for healthcare but with a return of the usual flu & cold levels - depending on other measures.

 

[mhalpern]

So, they have decided to give up on 5-10% of their population. Sadly, herd immunity may be a pipedream, based on the Spanish Study of antibodies

i suspect most bigger businesses in Florida will install mandates for their employees if they haven't already.

Hasn't Florida already BANNED mandates for schools? Not sure if companies are included in that ban, but wouldn't surprise me if they are also similarly banned from requiring masks / vaccinations.

only by executive order threatening superintendent pay, which is legally tenuous at best and some simply are ignoring it

 

[The DCG]

And arguably Bernie and AOC aren't even really advocating for democratic socialism, but social democracy, despite their insistent terminology. The difference:

• Democratic Socialism advocates for elimination of capitalism and replacement with socialism, i.e. no more private ownership of the means of production, albeit within a democratically elected framework.
• Social Democracy is more about using the welfare state to blunt the sharp edges of capitalism.

Pretty much all of Bernie's and AOC's policies that I can think of off-hand squarely fall into the second camp. Frankly, so does most of the Democratic platform in general, but these two take it to a higher level. But hey, "socialism" is a popular term with hipsters these days.

Funny, ain't it? America is so hard right that even the few poor saps who label themselves to be the milquetoast version of Socialists are, in fact, advocating for barely center-left policies in the rest of the world.

Exactly. I consider myself a left-leaning moderate, but the right has skewed the scale so insanely that I'm practically a socialist radical leftist communist hippie anarchist or something...

Then again, they say the same thing about self-professed right-leaning moderates too. It seems like to them, if you're left of Atilla the Hun, you're best bros with Marx and Lenin.

But not Engels. Fuck that guy, he's a bore at parties.

 

[Random_stranger]

So, they have decided to give up on 5-10% of their population. Sadly, herd immunity may be a pipedream, based on the Spanish Study of antibodies

i suspect most bigger businesses in Florida will install mandates for their employees if they haven't already.

Hasn't Florida already BANNED mandates for schools? Not sure if companies are included in that ban, but wouldn't surprise me if they are also similarly banned from requiring masks / vaccinations.

only by executive order threatening superintendent pay, which is legally tenuous at best and some simply are ignoring it

Oh, sure, it may be illegal - but when has that stopped GQPers? Heck, I could see them introduce a TX-like law - you get to sue any business that even ASKS anyone to put on a mask..

 

[mhalpern]

So, they have decided to give up on 5-10% of their population. Sadly, herd immunity may be a pipedream, based on the Spanish Study of antibodies

i suspect most bigger businesses in Florida will install mandates for their employees if they haven't already.

Hasn't Florida already BANNED mandates for schools? Not sure if companies are included in that ban, but wouldn't surprise me if they are also similarly banned from requiring masks / vaccinations.

only by executive order threatening superintendent pay, which is legally tenuous at best and some simply are ignoring it

Oh, sure, it may be illegal - but when has that stopped GQPers? Heck, I could see them introduce a TX-like law - you get to sue any business that even ASKS anyone to put on a mask..

it means its unenforceable, as for the TX law, i actually doubt that, they are already seeing backlash from both sides of the aisle on that, too encompassing, and the issue of "intent" i fully expect within months of them getting through their "technical difficulties" they'll run out of the money they've set aside for the bounties, in part to troll reports, and basically be forced to repeal it.

 

[Properjob70]

It's clear the real effort in Florida and other states is to cement Republican party control over the state, in perpetuity, as they drive out people who would otherwise have no objection to remaining in the state.

Short-term (4-8 months) this might work. But long term, this seems like a net negative. If you cause your constituent base to die off in droves, something tells me that you won't have a constituent base for long. You do want to make it past this fall's voting cycle as a viable party in the state, right? Right?

Whilst there are plenty of people who wouldn't go to Fla if they were paid handsomely & others leaving for similar reasons - the place is nonetheless attractive to others with different political persuasions who love Guv Ron. Various biz papers are reporting plenty of new business & investments so these are economically active migrants. They're replacing them faster than they're killing them or driving them away by all accounts.

How long that lasts with climate change making its presence felt is another story but there is enough going on for now....