War with...Iran?

[Macam]

Israel continues to engage in reprehensible behavior.

Israel unlawfully used white phosphorus in Lebanon: HRW

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has found evidence Israel used white phosphorus in residential areas of southern Lebanon earlier this month, in violation of international humanitarian law.

In a new report released on Monday, the New York-based rights group said it confirmed the authenticity of seven photos showing white phosphorus munitions fired over a residential area in southern Lebanon's Yohmor, with fires breaking out in at least two homes there on March 3.

Ramzi Kaiss, a Lebanon researcher with HRW, said, "The Israeli military's unlawful use of white phosphorus over residential areas is extremely alarming and will have dire consequences for civilians."

"The incendiary effects of white phosphorus can cause death or cruel injuries that result in lifelong suffering," he added.

The use of airburst white phosphorus is unlawfully indiscriminate in populated areas and does not meet the requirement under international humanitarian law to take all feasible precautions to avoid civilian harm.

The chemical substance ignites when exposed to oxygen and can set homes, agricultural areas, and other civilian objects on fire

Link

Just sickening behavior. And all this, for nothing.

 

[DarthSlack]

I don't know about "for nothing". My personal pet theory is that Israel is wiping out anyone capable of mounting any resistance to when they illegally annex the West Bank and start the ethic cleansing. Because we all know that annexation is coming while Netanyahu is still in office.

 

[Coriolanus]

China Deploys 30,000-Ton Liaowang-1 “Floating Supercomputer” to Gulf of Oman​

I’m not sure the extent to which China actually supplied the Iranian regime with advanced equipment, but I am sure Beijing is salivating at the amount of data they can capture from the theater.

There's some chatter on the conservative side of the internet that this conflict has the effect of showing China how strong the US military is.

It seems to me that what China will likely see is how much expensive ammunition the US is willing to deplete on cheap weapons, and how relatively ineffective it is at dislodging an entrenched enemy purely from an air campaign.

 

[waubers]

Thinking about this last night, so now we have a, potentially, more hardline leader in Iran. Have we moved past a potential off ramp for the foreseeable future?

Iran has no reason too stop being belligerent toward the oil traffic in the straight. If anything, the more pain they cause there, the quicker the USA and its gulf allies look to end things, right?

I guess we have no real idea what Trump's tolerance for >$100 barrel oil is. In the past I'd have said low, since he only ever seems to pull back when the markets make it clear he needs to. But this feels like it might be beyond his ability to do. If energy prices stay super high, and bond yields keep going up, how the hell will this not induce a recession at home? How long can these price levels and this much uncertainty in global energy be tollerated?

And at the same time, even if the USA went home this afternoon, how does that not embolden Iran to keep doing what it's doing? There has to be a diplomatic resolution here or there's no reason for Iran to stop messing around, right? How do we even get to diplomacy w/o boots on the ground?

I'm genuinely asking. I really can't get a feel for how this unfolds, like, what's even likely?

 

[Locke]

Thinking about this last night, so now we have a, potentially, more hardline leader in Iran. Have we moved past a potential off ramp for the foreseeable future?

Iran has no reason too stop being belligerent toward the oil traffic in the straight. If anything, the more pain they cause there, the quicker the USA and its gulf allies look to end things, right?

I guess we have no real idea what Trump's tolerance for >$100 barrel oil is. In the past I'd have said low, since he only ever seems to pull back when the markets make it clear he needs to. But this feels like it might be beyond his ability to do. If energy prices stay super high, and bond yields keep going up, how the hell will this not induce a recession at home? How long can these price levels and this much uncertainty in global energy be tollerated?

And at the same time, even if the USA went home this afternoon, how does that not embolden Iran to keep doing what it's doing? There has to be a diplomatic resolution here or there's no reason for Iran to stop messing around, right? How do we even get to diplomacy w/o boots on the ground?

I'm genuinely asking. I really can't get a feel for how this unfolds, like, what's even likely?

The complicating factor is that the war with Iran is a way for

1. The Iranian regime to stay in power ("See, we told you America would try to colonize us!"
1. Netanayhu to stay out of prison for the shit load of bribes he took
3. Trump to avoid a scandal for all the kids he molested

I don't think any of those three give a solitary fuck about people doing the fighting and dying, let alone the cost of oil.

Sure, it'll be unpopular, but that isn't a change for the first two and Trump thinks the war with Iran polls at 90% because his brain is cooked by AI generated misinformation by his staff, so he doesn't even know hes unpopular.

 

[Zich]

My assumption is we'll keep assassinating the new leader until they pick one we like

 

[SedsAtArs]

There's some chatter on the conservative side of the internet that this conflict has the effect of showing China how strong the US military is.

It seems to me that what China will likely see is how much expensive ammunition the US is willing to deplete on cheap weapons, and how relatively ineffective it is at dislodging an entrenched enemy purely from an air campaign.

I'm sure China will be very impressed by how the US has combined running low on AA after a week of war against a much smaller opponent while further alienating their European allies.

 

[AverageDutchGuy]

There's some chatter on the conservative side of the internet that this conflict has the effect of showing China how strong the US military is.

It seems to me that what China will likely see is how much expensive ammunition the US is willing to deplete on cheap weapons, and how relatively ineffective it is at dislodging an entrenched enemy purely from an air campaign.

In other words, China is not going to learn anything new? What is likely the worry is Signals Intelligence gathering. China will learn what sorts of jamming, radar frequencies, tactics, etc are used when operating in hostile airspace. Something they can then use to develop their own counter jamming, and jamming tech against US tech.

 

[Locke]

I'm sure China will be very impressed by how the US has combined running low on AA after a week of war against a much smaller opponent while further alienating their European allies.

The real game changers for drones isn't that they're magic win buttons, its that everyone just kinda assumed they would only need anti-air capabilities for air craft in the hundreds, not in the tens of thousands and don't have the magazine depth to deal with it.

Since our AA is almost all missile based its almost impossible to have the number of missiles needed. As we saw in Ukraine you need a bunch of glorified technicals with short range radar and proximity fused auto canons everywhere.

It turns out Ukraine didn't go that solution because they're too dumb to have enough missiles, but because that is what works.

 

[Megalodon]

[/QUOTE]

There's some chatter on the conservative side of the internet that this conflict has the effect of showing China how strong the US military is.

It seems to me that what China will likely see is how much expensive ammunition the US is willing to deplete on cheap weapons, and how relatively ineffective it is at dislodging an entrenched enemy purely from an air campaign.

The crisis of LNG being unavailable is going to push people towards Chinese solar panels and batteries, and the spiking price of oil will push people towards EVs, of which China is one of the biggest manufacturers.

 

[Macam]

My assumption is we'll keep assassinating the new leader until they pick one we like

The issue here is that there will never be one that 'we' like.

Israel, under Netanyahu and his far right coalition, will hate anyone that gets selected because, well, they'll be Iranian, and have to be responsive to either the ruling hardline factions of Iran or the people of Iran. Iran isn't going to join the Abraham accords anytime soon or whatever bullshit scheme they want to come up with and even a nominal deal won't appease Netanyahu and his crew, as they'll just trot the usual "they're lying and are a week away from a nuclear bomb" line he's been running for 20+ years. His incentive structure is to take advantage of the American idiots in charge and wreck absolutely everything he's ever dreamed of, as that also tends to serve his domestic interests well, in spite of having been in charge and being completely blindsided by one of the worst atrocities the country has ever seen in recent times.

There isn't much daylight between that position and our current American administration, who view themselves as far right Superman (i.e., Homelander), making the world 'safer' by starting pointless wars with no plan other than self-dealing and sending other peoples' kids to die for their ideology (Rubio's kids are probably just about old enough to enlist if they chose to). There aren't any sane voices there and there's a fairly long ramp of "fucking things up royally" before they tend to want to change course. It's mostly attack critics, double down, attack critics, triple down, then, some months later, change course slightly.

All the current geopolitics suggest the best thing for Iran to do is survive and, long term, get a nuclear weapon, as that's the only guarantee you won't be bombed/invaded (and honestly, that goes for any other country at this point; see Poland's recent remarks re:nuclear).

There's no short term 'get out' here with the current leaders other than running out of money and/or weaponry or someone on Trump's TV telling him this is a bad idea.

 

[Scotttheking]

China Deploys 30,000-Ton Liaowang-1 “Floating Supercomputer” to Gulf of Oman​

I’m not sure the extent to which China actually supplied the Iranian regime with advanced equipment, but I am sure Beijing is salivating at the amount of data they can capture from the theater.

The article is decent although it loops repeatedly about what it could provide the Iranians.

China is looking to gather the data they can to identify aircraft, including stealth aircraft via any electronic emissions they can pick up.
They’ll be looking at everything they can collect on the defensive systems, shooting Iranian missiles to identify any weaknesses or counter, measures or jamming that they can develop.
They are also looking to see what jamming is running, how planes fly, etc., etc. etc.
Their radars will be looking at every piece of ordinance in the air to identify performance characteristics.
That especially be wanting to see the link 16 and link 22 traffic and jamming possibilities.


Finally, they’ll be testing out their ship itself to see how much it can process, how their crew works together, and figure out how they can improve the capabilities of their technology and operational practices.

 

[Zich]

Yeah I didn't say there would ever be a leader we would like. Just that we would keep killing them.

 

[Deleted member 28951]

First NATO response?


View: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2030978426266407370?s=20

Launching missiles at a NATO country seems like a new level of stupid. But if they want another 30 countries striking back… sure. Let’s see how long Europe can choose not to be a part of it.

It isn't new.
A Missile was launched at Turkey (and intercepted by a NATO facility, although broken pieces fell in Turkish territory) on March 4th.
UAVs were launched at the British bases in Cyprus, one of which hit Akrotiti base, on March 1 ; both bases in Cyprus count as sovereign British territory since Cyprus's independence treaty in 1960, so either Turkey or the UK can invoke NATO Article 5.

Several European countries (Italy, Spain, France & the Nethelands) have announced they will send naval forces to protect Cyprus.
Turkey has sent 6 F-16s in Northern Cyprus to protect it.

The Iranian regime is doing its best to piss everyone off. I wouldn't be surprised to see 150 KSA F-15s start bombing Iran.

 

[timby]

Yeah I didn't say there would ever be a leader we would like. Just that we would keep killing them.

The assassinations will continue until morale improves.

 

[Zod]

I'm saying that whenever there's been Russian missiles in European countries' airspace we've eagerly explained how it doesn't really trigger article 5 because whatever. Same for all the Russian sabotage that's been going on, firebombs on mail planes, internet cables getting trawled, you name it.

Europe is (wisely) not eager to become a participant in a hot war with Russia.

OK, now I get you.

No point in getting into that unless and until Russia does something really stupid, like attack a Baltic State. There may come a time though when Russia starts to violate NATO territory a little bit at a time, perhaps with "little green men". If that happens, those little green men need to be sent back over the border, alive or dead.

edit: typos

 

[bjn]

I'm saying that whenever there's been Russian missiles in European countries' airspace we've eagerly explained how it doesn't really trigger article 5 because whatever. Same for all the Russian sabotage that's been going on, firebombs on mail planes, internet cables getting trawled, you name it.

Europe is (wisely) not eager to become a participant in a hot war with Russia.

It’s more avoiding giving Russia any excuse to escalate, so no "They shot down one of our planes when it wasn't in their airspace*, we told you NATO is out to destroy us!".

*Narrator : "It wasn't in their airspace."

 

[Sajuuk]

There's some chatter on the conservative side of the internet that this conflict has the effect of showing China how strong the US military is.

It seems to me that what China will likely see is how much expensive ammunition the US is willing to deplete on cheap weapons, and how relatively ineffective it is at dislodging an entrenched enemy purely from an air campaign.

Of course, because foreigners are ontologically stupid and couldn’t possibly have looked at the previous century of military history to inform themselves about the US military.

You and @Scotttheking are right, though. They’re measuring our attrition stamina and looking for any weak links in our stealth profiles and networking. Almost like they’re fully aware of our strengths and are actively working out the hammer and anvil just for us.

 

[AverageDutchGuy]

The real game changers for drones isn't that they're magic win buttons, its that everyone just kinda assumed they would only need anti-air capabilities for air craft in the hundreds, not in the tens of thousands and don't have the magazine depth to deal with it.

Since our AA is almost all missile based its almost impossible to have the number of missiles needed. As we saw in Ukraine you need a bunch of glorified technicals with short range radar and proximity fused auto canons everywhere.

It turns out Ukraine didn't go that solution because they're too dumb to have enough missiles, but because that is what works.

The funny thing is that the correct counter to cheap slow drones is "old tech" SPAAGs like the German Gepard, Japans Type 87, the Swedish Leopard 2 Marksman, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if we're going to see a revival of (auto-)cannon SPAAGs for counter drone operation.

 

[ice9]

Israel did sort of find peace with most of the neighbors.

Right. Sure. It just keeps to itself eh? You do know about the Greater Israel project?

 

[Welcome to Darwin]

Yeah I didn't say there would ever be a leader we would like. Just that we would keep killing them.

Seeing aside any other debates over assassinations, how long until people start saying "thanks, but no thanks" on being appointed Supreme Leader?

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

and start the ethic cleansing.

That’s been underway for awhile.

 

[Deleted member 28951]

I keep seeing references to Iran attempting to assassinate Trump but don’t know the story. It seems unlikely, but is there a link I should read?

Also, the fatwa is not a joking matter. It requires all muslims to attend to this (at least to consider it) and promises a reward in heaven for anyone who carries it out. It elevates the threat to Trump up to almost the level of his cholesterol.

The seriousness of a Fatwa depends on who exactly issues it. Since one was issued both by two top Iranian Mullahs (including a Grand Ayatollah), and the top Shi'ite cleric in Iraq, I expect US security agencies are taking it seriously.

 

[Deleted member 28951]

What makes you think the rest of NATO would give a rip? It's likely Turkey would just complain a bit to keep up appearances and then call it a day.

The end result of Trump denigrating NATO for a year is that NATO doesn't really care if US bases gets hit or not.

Interesting question.
Turkey tends to react very strongly to any perceived offense against its sovereignty. Recall they downed s Russian Su-24 that pretty clearly crossed the Syrian-Turkish border accidentally, just 2km over.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown

 

[karolus]

That’s been underway for awhile.

Ethics are being cleansed from Washington at a furious rate. The Administration is keen on exporting this practice across the world so that they stand on a level playing field when cutting "deals."

 

[Klinn]

The funny thing is that the correct counter to cheap slow drones is "old tech" SPAAGs like the German Gepard, Japans Type 87, the Swedish Leopard 2 Marksman, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if we're going to see a revival of (auto-)cannon SPAAGs for counter drone operation.

The problem, as Ukraine found out, is that the enemy will make and use drones that fly higher than AA reliably reaches. So some SPAAGs will be useful, but Ukraine needed to create counter-drone drones to try to destroy the higher flying attacking drones. It's drone on drone!

They're also using what are in essence Cessna Gunships. That is, small slow prop planes with a gunner sticking out the side door.

 

[SedsAtArs]

Interesting question.
Turkey tends to react very strongly to any perceived offense against its sovereignty. Recall they downed s Russian Su-24 that pretty clearly crossed the Syrian-Turkish border accidentally, just 2km over.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown

I don't think anyone is suggesting they won't shoot down stuff, I just doubt it will be NATO business.

 

[AverageDutchGuy]

The problem, as Ukraine found out, is that the enemy will make and use drones that fly higher than AA reliably reaches. So some SPAAGs will be useful, but Ukraine needed to create counter-drone drones to try to destroy the higher flying attacking drones. It's drone on drone!

They're also using what are in essence Cessna Gunships. That is, small slow prop planes with a gunner sticking out the side door.

If your target is on the ground, eventually they'll have to come close to the ground. Does make defense (especially "defense in depth) a lot harder since you can only intercept while the drone is in it's terminal phase. But it still means not wasting a very expensive Patriot on an inexpensive Guran.

 

[Klinn]

If your target is on the ground, eventually they'll have to come close to the ground. Does make defense (especially "defense in depth) a lot harder since you can only intercept while the drone is in it's terminal phase. But it still means not wasting a very expensive Patriot on an inexpensive Guran.

Quite true, but can you get the defensive coverage over a sufficiently wide area with SPAAGs? As in, OK, which bit of electrical infrastructure or which apartment block is Russia going after this time? Cities are big. AA may work with more static high value installations but you also need something more flexible but still cheap.

As always, it's instructive to see what's happening in the country who has actually been facing this threat for years and witness how the response and counter response has evolved.

 

[breze]

Of course, because foreigners are ontologically stupid and couldn’t possibly have looked at the previous century of military history to inform themselves about the US military.

You and @Scotttheking are right, though. They’re measuring our attrition stamina and looking for any weak links in our stealth profiles and networking. Almost like they’re fully aware of our strengths and are actively working out the hammer and anvil just for us.

This seems like a much more applicable lesson than stuff like Iraq or Afghanistan. As old as it might make us feel, those were actually kind of in a different “era,” they were pre drone-profusion. Tomorrow’s most up to date bit of history is today.

 

[Sajuuk]

The Imperial Heartland is literally asking Iranians: "why bomb our bases?"

 

[Macam]

Link

I don't know what the point of negotiating with the American regime is. They break every deal, including their own, even when negotiating with allies. They repeatedly violate the "negotiations" they engage with non-allies.

Meanwhile, someone please airdrop Lindsey Graham onto a battlefield literally anywhere, so we can see if his bloodlust matches his abilities on the battlefield.

The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.It is my understanding the Kingdom refuses to use their capable military as a part of an effort to end the barbaric and terrorist Iranian regime who has terrorized the region and killed 7 Americans.Question – why should America do a defense agreement with a country like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that is unwilling to join a fight of mutual interest?

Americans are dying and the U.S. is spending billions to dislodge the terrorist Iranian regime that threatens the region. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia seems to be issuing statements and doing things in the background that are marginally helpful, but unwilling to participate in military operations to end the reign of terror coming out of Iran.

Hopefully Gulf Cooperation Council countries will get more involved as this fight is in their backyard. If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.

 

[Technarch]

Yeah I didn't say there would ever be a leader we would like. Just that we would keep killing them.

If we can. Khamenei II is gonna be so far underground any bombs will have to get past the Balrog.

 

[RefrigeratorCo.]

Today is critical for us to at least get DHS back online. We're ... probably going to need it at this trajectory.

 

[Megalodon]

The problem, as Ukraine found out, is that the enemy will make and use drones that fly higher than AA reliably reaches. So some SPAAGs will be useful, but Ukraine needed to create counter-drone drones to try to destroy the higher flying attacking drones. It's drone on drone!

They loft some of them with balloons to give them altitude they wouldn't be able to get on internal battery power. They release and then propulsively guide themselves to the intercept.

 

[Klinn]

I don't know what the point of negotiating with the American regime is. They break every deal, including their own, even when negotiating with allies. They repeatedly violate the "negotiations" they engage with non-allies.

Meanwhile, someone please airdrop Lindsey Graham onto a battlefield literally anywhere, so we can see if his bloodlust matches his abilities on the battlefield.

From the post Macam embedded:

Hopefully Gulf Cooperation Council countries will get more involved as this fight is in their backyard. If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.

And what would those consequences be? Big tariffs on oil? Go ahead and try it! Closing US bases in Gulf countries that are attracting missile strikes? Don't threaten me with a good time. Typical US politicians running their mouth off without a clue.

 

[Paengwyn]

'If you don't fight the war we started for us there will be consequences' is certainly a diplomatic masterstroke.

Threatening the third largest, and largest allied, oil producer (per Wikipedia) in the world when oil is already over $100/barrel; what could possibly go wrong?

 

[Technarch]

Today is critical for us to at least get DHS back online. We're ... probably going to need it at this trajectory.

Which "us" and "we" are you referring to? The regime clearly cares more about their brownshirts than about the safety of the American public. An Iranian terror attack in the U.S. dovetails nicely with the administration's hopes of remaining in power.

A fatwa against America at large is stupid. Attacks targeted against energy or financial infrastructure, or AI datacenters, might have actually damaged the administration.

 

[Macam]

'If you don't fight the war we started for us there will be consequences' is certainly a diplomatic masterstroke.

Threatening the third largest, and largest allied, oil producer (per Wikipedia) in the world when oil is already over $100/barrel; what could possibly go wrong?

Yeah, I was about to post the same. I'm sure MBS would love to talk to Graham about it. Perhaps they can schedule a chat at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

 

[bjn]

Looks like Trump is about to TACO and say “Mission Accomplished!”, or in his words the war is “very complete, pretty much”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/09/iran-war-live-updates-new-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-oil-prices-soar?CMP=share_btn_url&page=with:block-69af29598f08ef977b472dd6#block-69af29598f08ef977b472dd6