War with...Iran?

Macam

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Scott Bessent starring in deleted scenes from ‘Downfall’ bookending the famous bunker rant:


View: https://x.com/clashreport/status/2032369138778378416?s=20


For those unable or unwilling to watch the clip, Bessent is called away to the Situation Room in mid-interview by Trump, and returns visibly shaken and assures us that Iran is going great!


Excellent; hand his son the enlistment papers. I'm sure his family would be proud that the son of a soybean farmer decided to enlist and serve on behalf of his local gas station so notably.
 

Lt_Storm

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Did you miss the part where Trump said he will have the Navy escort tankers if need be?
I mean, if he wants to play a game of tactical blunders, he's certainly free to.

Ethnostate is still the norm though. A lot of Europeans have a dominated culture, same as many other nations. A lot of the current instability is deal to the real/imaginatively culture differences as these cultures come together. For instance, most of Soap Box support equality right and wealth equality. However, number of cultures (including a big part of USA) is against such views.

I have no answer but I am a lot less hopefully about a mix culture society/planet earth as I get older.

Is it? I would argue that pretty much every state ever has been culturally diverse and the appearance you are talking about only happens because people don't know their neighbors very well. They think that they are all little clones of them, and so assume a dominated culture that, if you spend much time traveling, you realize doesn't really exist anywhere (or, I suppose,
is so broad that you conclude exists absolutely everywhere, including in the US and Japan).


Scott Bessent starring in deleted scenes from ‘Downfall’ bookending the famous bunker rant:


View: https://x.com/clashreport/status/2032369138778378416?s=20


For those unable or unwilling to watch the clip, Bessent is called away to the Situation Room in mid-interview by Trump, and returns visibly shaken and assures us that Iran is going great!


For a moment there, he sounded like Biden did during his disastrous debate.
 
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Urist

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My bet, either he was asked how the world economy would react to some form of invasion or it's about using nukes.

I'm not putting it past them to think that nuking something in Iran is their card out of this mess they put themselves in.

My guess the meeting was looking at the number crunching of how many casualties would be expected in different invasion scenarios, and the admin committing to expend a real number of American lives for the operation.

That is the best case scenario, as we got the Marine deployment news a short time later. I have no doubt that nuclear options were presented, but I pray Trump can't stomach what dropping a nuke would do to the stock market.
 

Technarch

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My guess the meeting was looking at the number crunching of how many casualties would be expected in different invasion scenarios, and the admin committing to expend a real number of American lives for the operation.

That is the best case scenario, as we got the Marine deployment news a short time later. I have no doubt that nuclear options were presented, but I pray Trump can't stomach what dropping a nuke would do to the stock market.

Online speculation I've seen so far:

  • Announcement of an invasion of Kharg Island
  • Announcement of a general ground invasion
  • Revealing that casualties are far higher than currently admitted
  • Calling up the draft
  • Nukes

Regardless, I can't think of a time I've ever seen an administration official that shaken during an interview. He's shaking his head as he talks because he knows he's lying. At this point I hope it's just Kharg Island.
 

DarthSlack

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Online speculation I've seen so far:

  • Announcement of an invasion of Kharg Island
  • Announcement of a general ground invasion
  • Revealing that casualties are far higher than currently admitted
  • Calling up the draft
  • Nukes

Regardless, I can't think of a time I've ever seen an administration official that shaken during an interview. He's shaking his head as he talks because he knows he's lying. At this point I hope it's just Kharg Island.

Or.....

The US is going to sink a whole bunch of boats in the Strait of Hormuz so that Trump can close it before the Iranians do.

Hey, we're in this war because Trump didn't want Israel to beat him to bombing Iran, so it fits. And being confronted by that level of stupidity would leave me shaking too.
 

fractl

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It wouldn't be as big of a problem if Israel didn't want Palestinian land where incorporating its inhabitants would upend the ethnostate "balance." I'd have no problem if Jewish people were the dominant majority in Israel as it currently exists as long as minority ethnicities had equal rights. That would be par for the course, as you say, for many countries.
IMO Israelis and Palestinians should have a single country that respects the human rights of all its citizens. Guess that's too much to ask for.
 

Sajuuk

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Sure. But when I look at the nastiest fascist-adjacent parties in Europe, they seem to be about stopping immigration and perhaps deportation.

As gross as that all is, it really doesn't compare to "put them in a ghetto", "starve them", "exterminate ghetto".
Fascism doesn’t start with “exterminate them,” it starts with deport them.
 
You know what? At this point, lets go for it.

You will never, ever get a better incentive from a republican administration to switch over to renewable energy than them starting a pointless destructive war in the Middle East that causes global oil prices to skyrocket almost out of control.

Fuck tax credits, fuck discounts, fuck green new deals.

When people start letting their Tahoes and Silveradoes rot on the driveway because they can't afford to fuel their car up without sacrificing money they need for food or bills, and when they start riding bicycles to the supermarket for grocery trips or carpooling to work to save on gas or even using that icky dreaded public transportation because they desperately need to save every last one of those dollars since inflation is continuing unchecked.

When people start foregoing eating meat 1, then 2, then 3 days a week to save money. When people start growing vegetables in their front yards and sharing food with neighbors so they don't have to spend so much at the supermarket anymore. When people hang clothes on clotheslines to dry and start taking cold/lukewarm showers to save on electricity.

When all this shit and more starts happening.

That will be better ecologically than anything any toothless democrat could have ever done.

Maybe all we ever needed was a Republican just stupid enough to drag us into a war that would wreck us, force us to change.

Because god knows we would have never done it on our own, unprompted.
... Or they could just subsidize the oil industry to keep us all fat and happy.
 
IMO Israelis and Palestinians should have a single country that respects the human rights of all its citizens. Guess that's too much to ask for.
I was fully on board with the common Western media narrative that it's the Palestiians that are just being jerks and shooting missiles, until I saw a documentary that included a lot of street interviews with Israelis, and the "kill all that vermin, I don't care" sentiment was thick and common.

I don't think there IS a "good" or "proper" or "uniformly just" solution to the problem of Israel. The only way I can think of to stop this bullshit would be a 2 nation state with about 500,000 UN troops sitting on all the walls making sure the nuts on both sides just knock their bullshit off, and that's never going to happen.

Fascism doesn’t start with “exterminate them,” it starts with deport them.
You know what, you're right. I was just going of "Europeans could not possibly be this stupid and hateful and ignorant", and then I realized that that statement needs an "...again" at the end there.

I hate this fucking timeline so, so much.
 

Macam

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Not to be that guy, but can we please take the broader Israel discussion elsewhere, unless it's pertinent to the actual war? That just always ends up derailing things.

As for Bessent's shaky response, I wouldn't read too much into it. For all we know, he just looked at his portfolio after the call.

And, while this probably isn't real and just the usual trolling....it's a weirdly funny message, certainly compared to what typically gets written on weaponry.
 

Sajuuk

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Not to be that guy, but can we please take the broader Israel discussion elsewhere, unless it's pertinent to the actual war? That just always ends up derailing things.

As for Bessent's shaky response, I wouldn't read too much into it. For all we know, he just looked at his portfolio after the call.

And, while this probably isn't real and just the usual trolling....it's a weirdly funny message, certainly compared to what typically gets written on weaponry.
The Mouth of Sauron doesn’t get shaken by portfolio dips.
 

Urist

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  • Announcement of an invasion of Kharg Island
  • Announcement of a general ground invasion
  • Revealing that casualties are far higher than currently admitted
  • Calling up the draft
  • Nukes

Regardless, I can't think of a time I've ever seen an administration official that shaken during an interview. He's shaking his head as he talks because he knows he's lying. At this point I hope it's just Kharg Island.

  • Announcement of an invasion of Kharg Island
My guess for the administration's current plan for a band-aid solution that Trump might believe will allow him to claim a quick victory. In reality it solves basically nothing; Occupation of Kharg Island likely wouldn't degrade Iran's capability to threaten shipping through the straight or in the gulf by much. It would commit American soldiers and assets to an unsustainable occupation in an incredibly vulnerable position ripe for drone and missile based asymmetric warfare, and would inevitably require invading and occupying the surrounding mainland position and beyond. Kharg would be Gallipoli on steroids.

  • Announcement of a general ground invasion
Likely inevitable with any commitment of ground troops. But I doubt even Trump has the stomach for the losses and decades long quagmire that would require to try it at least at first.

  • Revealing that casualties are far higher than currently admitted
Unfortunately this is probably the best case scenario for any news dropping this weekend. They've already killed over a dozen soldiers and lost an outsized number of aircraft including a non-replaceable KC-135.


  • Calling up the draft
This would be the end of Trump's political career; I suspect no amount of election meddling nonsense would save the Republicans come the midterms if they called up the draft. I would expect Trump to expend all other options (including nukes) before using it.


Absolutely a distinct possibility. Trump was dumb enough to think that killing Khamenei would lead to total capitulation and a quick win. I suspect he sees nukes in the same light in his deluded mind, and I doubt there are any the current chain of command who would oppose or defy him enough to refuse if he gave the order. IMO the only thing stopping him using them currently is the effect it would have on the stock market; and I imagine the farther it falls due to disruptions the conflict is causing the more attractive that option becomes for Trump.
 

Ananke

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The most horrifying aspect of the Nazi movement is that the human psychology that enabled it was not somehow uniquely German. Given the right criteria it could, and would, happen anywhere.

“It can’t happen here” is the same kind of coping as the various ones that have surfaced over the part year - “the courts will stop him”, “the military will refuse blatantly illegal orders”, “even the Republicans will impeach”.

It’s irrational thinking that actively gets in the way of taking steps that actually might stop it.
 

Lt_Storm

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... Or they could just subsidize the oil industry to keep us all fat and happy.
At this level of blunder, I'm not sure they can. After all, subsidies won't make Iran open the strait. And, that means no matter how much money there is, there will be an oil shortage. Never mind the whole oil markets being in turmoil with cancelled contracts and such.
 

Sajuuk

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The most horrifying aspect of the Nazi movement is that the human psychology that enabled it was not somehow uniquely German. Given the right criteria it could, and would, happen anywhere.

“It can’t happen here” is the same kind of coping as the various ones that have surfaced over the part year - “the courts will stop him”, “the military will refuse blatantly illegal orders”, “even the Republicans will impeach”.

It’s irrational thinking that actively gets in the way of taking steps that actually might stop it.
Whoever had created humanity had left in a major design flaw. It was its tendency to bend at the knees.

Terry Pratchett
 

Cadarnfel

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So now Trump is apparently saying that the war will end, when he feels it in his bones (probably not his bone spurs).

Trump told Fox News Radio that he didn’t think the war “would be long.” But he suggested that only he will know when it will be over, saying the conflict will end “when I feel it, feel it in my bones.”
[...]
Trump on Friday said he expected the conflict to end soon but added that it could also continue indefinitely if necessary. The president dismissed reports that the U.S. was facing a munitions shortage.

The delusional belief that only he knows when it will end is very indicative of his personality and self belief that he is some sort of expert/messiah/god.

Maybe Trump is the god that Hegseth is talking about in his religious crusade?
 
Occupation of Kharg Island likely wouldn't degrade Iran's capability to threaten shipping through the straight or in the gulf by much.
Let's just say that if I were even semi-conscious and working as a military planner for Iran, I would have an entire fucking book about Kharg Island. Taking it, losing it, working around it, retaking it, razing it, on and on and on and on. It's kind of the most strategic point for Iran in the entire Gulf.
 

Shavano

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The Mouth of Sauron doesn’t get shaken by portfolio dips.
What other clues did you need that Bessent isn't up to the job?
Likely inevitable with any commitment of ground troops. But I doubt even Trump has the stomach for the losses and decades long quagmire that would require to try it at least at first.
Trump has made it pretty clear he doesn't care when little people die as long as it's good for rich people.
Unfortunately this is probably the best case scenario for any news dropping this weekend. They've already killed over a dozen soldiers and lost an outsized number of aircraft including a non-replaceable KC-135.
Not really non-replaceable. The USAF now has KC-46's. Those are built on the Boeing 767 airframe.
 

Macam

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An Iranian backed Iraqi group is apparently claiming responsibility for the KC-135 going down. That might also explain why the one which did manage to land is missing half of it's vertical stabiliser.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...ility-downing-us-military-aircraft-2026-03-13

We're now into the double digits for American deaths, to say nothing of the Lebanese and Iranian deaths (Israel continuing to wreck utter havoc and devastation on Lebanon is just quietly ducking all the news).

Meanwhile, all that is old is new again. The Daily Show is seeing renewed ratings and views and The Onion is staying sharp:

Screenshot 2026-03-13 at 3.57.18 PM.png


And this isn't The Onion: Iran mulls conditions for allowing oil cargo ships through Strait of Hormuz, source says (no more details beyond this atm). Maybe this is what got Bessent shook and Trump called him in to ask what a yoo-an was.
 

Shavano

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So now Trump is apparently saying that the war will end, when he feels it in his bones (probably not his bone spurs).

The delusional belief that only he knows when it will end is very indicative of his personality and self belief that he is some sort of expert/messiah/god.

Maybe Trump is the god that Hegseth is talking about in his religious crusade?
Needs better training on the difference between God and an antichrist.
Let's just say that if I were even semi-conscious and working as a military planner for Iran, I would have an entire fucking book about Kharg Island. Taking it, losing it, working around it, retaking it, razing it, on and on and on and on. It's kind of the most strategic point for Iran in the entire Gulf.
IN the Gulf, yes. maybe. NEAR the Gulf, not even close to the most strategic point.
1773442975526.png
 

Technarch

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Needs better training on the difference between God and an antichrist.

IN the Gulf, yes. maybe. NEAR the Gulf, not even close to the most strategic point.
View attachment 130441

Kharg Island is the tanker loading terminal for approximately 100% of Iranian oil and a lot of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil besides. That’s what’s strategic about it.
 
Not really non-replaceable. The USAF now has KC-46's. Those are built on the Boeing 767 airframe.
Yes, and they deployed some of them for this operation. Then, just the other day, they scrambled another full dozen of KC-135s to the Middle East.

Yes, the KC-46, a 25-year continuing boondoggle that has never worked right and probably never will.

Yes, the KC-46, the "modern" replacement, based on the 767, an airframe that is 45 years old.

Tell me all about those lovely KC-46es. The ones that can actually still be produced, because Boeing is keeping a single line open with 1980s tooling so they can make... KC-46es and charge whatever the hell they feel like for them.

These lovely KC-46s, where for every one we've committed to buy you could have a random contractor convert an A350 or 777 to be hilariously superior for about half the price.

Anecdata: a currently active KC-135 operator in-theater told me that pretty much ALL the tanking is being done by -135s. Punch up a flight tracker, you'll see. Also, that crash? May just have been an in-flight collision because they are having all of these suckers do racetracks with exhausted crews and guided by PFC Maga SurvivedThePurge.

ETA: If you think SLS and EUS are the only projects Boeing has been massively shafting tax-payers on, look into the KC-46 project.
 
Needs better training on the difference between God and an antichrist.
Let's just get this out of the way: Revelations was not a prediction or prophecy, it was a comment on what was going on at the time. It was NOT prophesizing an antichrist, it was very much pointing out a current figure as being the antichrist. It was NOT laying down warnings about the mark of the beast, it was referring to things going on at the time. Anyone hindcasting Revelations is lying to you, and intentionally so.
 
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That man is SCARED. What the hell is going on (or about to be going on)?!
I’m sure Trump wants to use nukes. He’s been itching to do it for forever. He wanted to nuke the weather at one point and had to rebuffed by people in the inner circle of his first term.

It fits with his malignant narcissism perfectly as well.
 

goates

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What other clues did you need that Bessent isn't up to the job?

Trump has made it pretty clear he doesn't care when little people die as long as it's good for rich people.

Not really non-replaceable. The USAF now has KC-46's. Those are built on the Boeing 767 airframe.
The KC-46s the Air Force stopped buying until the deficiencies are fixed? With how well Boeing is doing recently, those KC-135s are going to be around for a while yet.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-vice-chief-extra-kc-46-contract-deficiencies