"It'll be very hard for anyone to survive in the US market," Chinese group says.
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That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.I used to think this way. But, then I realized two things:
1. The ruling class is us. Just the group of us that happen to control material wealth at the moment. For all the blather about rising inquality, that comes and goes, just like money.
2. We used to have jobs provided by those evil oppressors, but they moved them overseas because the incentives of free trade favor that. Putting up barriers incentivizes having the jobs be domestic instead. The people who immediately counter by saying "well robots" miss the point. There will always be more jobs. The question is who is the most economic employee -- where that person is. Barriers make it more desirable to have that person be domestic.
The left's propaganda has been better for so long that in circles like Ars, it's become accepted wisdom. This has happened while the whole country's working population has been hollowed out. The left is simply wrong and won't admit it, and so are the technocrats here.
ah Dude, don't even. I love Anker devices. Q20 soundcore..say what.I'll miss Anker devices.
LOLI just wish there was a way for Amazon sellers (and all retailers) to show what portion of the price is from tariffs.
What this Laptop Custom's officer? This old thing? No... I bought it out with me and now we're coming back... Oh yes... I've had this old thing for several years now... I'm thinking of buying a newer model. Do you have any suggestions?Don't you have to declare upon returning and pay taxes? Or is it cheaper even with that added cost?
I had to check that this was real and not AI (it is real).Psshaaaw, whatever dawg, I stand by the MUID brand squishy duck light that I got on the cheap.
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You do realize that free trade reduces the likelihood of armed conflict, right?While it will be very painful in the medium term, this is a good thing. Dependence on the single most dangerous enemy we have for just about everything is a disaster, and this is our only way out of it.
"Dependence on the single most dangerous enemy we have for just about everything is a disaster". I think the world is realising this now that America has finally ripped off their mask and shown they can't be relied on or trusted.While it will be very painful in the medium term, this is a good thing. Dependence on the single most dangerous enemy we have for just about everything is a disaster, and this is our only way out of it.
I don't think the original poster even knows what time of day it is... or perhaps even what day.You do realize that free trade reduces the likelihood of armed conflict, right?
Saving face hell, they think they can win, and they are probably right. Hell, they could easily win by giving Trump some worthless shiny trinket so he thinks he's won and calls off the dogs. That's generally how Trump works.If Trump doesn't back down on them and especially if he keeps adding more and more to them¹ you can also add "Goodbye Black Friday" this year. Most of those special deals Walmart, Target, etc. have for Black Friday each year come from China.
And pretty soon you can also say "Goodbye Dollar Tree," since they've reported in the past that between 41% to 43% of their products are from China. (Same will likely happen to Dollar General as well.)
¹ It's clear Trump thinks a big enough number will get China to back down, but I doubt even 1,000,000% tariffs would do that. In fact the higher they go, the more China's going to dig in its heels and refuse to budge. It's probably already about saving face for them and they aren't going to lose face just because Trump is throwing a tantrum.
And where are you going to buy the parts for repairs?
I was just looking at repairing a watch with a somewhat obscure lithium battery. The only place I could find a matching replacement was on AliExpress for about $80. Much more than it should be, but not totally unreasonable all things considered.
Now? Because the executive order illegally bypasses the de minimis exemption for Chinese goods, that same battery apparently costs $200. Oh, and by the way, you'll be submitting your name, address, phone number, email address, and SSN to CBP via the carrier in order to get the shipment cleared through customs, and very likely paying some handsome brokerage fees on top of the $200 to get it all done. (Look up CBP form 2504, which is now required for all goods that don't qualify for de minimis.)
What these tariffs actually do is kill repairability, because importing obscure parts becomes cost and time prohibitive.
The Nobel Prize in Economics has always annoyed me. Might as well have a Nobel Prize in Aromatherapy.
Economics is a real field. It's just based on a fuzzy foundation: people's behavior.
That being said, there is no "Nobel Prize in Economics". There is a "Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences".
One of the first things people are taught about economics is the story of how currency was created as a result of the deficiencies of barter, while COMPLETELY ignoring what came before barter, credit/debt based economies, and what came before that, people just doing what they can to help the community when they could. Then there is the near complete disregard for the tendency of humans to engage in mutual aid (you ever lend a tool to a neighbour?) and you get a field that is in many ways divorced from reality while also directly influencing it.It's just based on a fuzzy foundation: people's behavior.
I used to think this way. But, then I realized two things:
1. The ruling class is us. Just the group of us that happen to control material wealth at the moment. For all the blather about rising inquality, that comes and goes, just like money.
2. We used to have jobs provided by those evil oppressors, but they moved them overseas because the incentives of free trade favor that. Putting up barriers incentivizes having the jobs be domestic instead. The people who immediately counter by saying "well robots" miss the point. There will always be more jobs. The question is who is the most economic employee -- where that person is. Barriers make it more desirable to have that person be domestic.
The left's propaganda has been better for so long that in circles like Ars, it's become accepted wisdom. This has happened while the whole country's working population has been hollowed out. The left is simply wrong and won't admit it, and so are the technocrats here.
This take is completely divorced from the reality that is the mostly healthy unemployment rate for nearly the entire time period in question.We used to have jobs provided by those evil oppressors
I've been wondering what would happen to the de minimus exemption, has it been completely removed or just for certain items?And where are you going to buy the parts for repairs?
I was just looking at repairing a watch with a somewhat obscure lithium battery. The only place I could find a matching replacement was on AliExpress for about $80. Much more than it should be, but not totally unreasonable all things considered.
Now? Because the executive order illegally bypasses the de minimis exemption for Chinese goods, that same battery apparently costs $200. Oh, and by the way, you'll be submitting your name, address, phone number, email address, and SSN to CBP via the carrier in order to get the shipment cleared through customs, and very likely paying some handsome brokerage fees on top of the $200 to get it all done. (Look up CBP form 2504, which is now required for all goods that don't qualify for de minimis.)
What these tariffs actually do is kill repairability, because importing obscure parts becomes cost and time prohibitive.
Carriers already have backlogs of thousands of packages which would have cleared customs easily just a week ago, and which now must be fully documented and paid. The old procedures were the way they were for a good reason.
China already has a giant cultural chip on its shoulder about getting bullied economically by Western powers. Most of us don't know the first fucking thing about the Boxer Rebellion and the foreign concessions and treaty ports and so on, but they have not forgotten, and their rise as a great power is in large part motivated by "no other nation will ever do that to us again, ever." Face is a big part of this, no doubt, but this is about national self-image, at this point, and not without historic justification.
It's going to hit a lot of small businesses as well, and people are likely to lose their homes and savings because of it. Case in point, this CNN interview:I enjoyed those along with BTF Lighting's LED strips and Waveshare's LCD displays for various hobby-grade electronics projects.
The damage won't be limited to the Chinese brands though; it's going to hit the large US brands that make their products in China and sell on Amazon too.
Wait, are you saying the economy of the US is different from balancing your checkbook and making sure bills are paid each month? Because I've heard that one in some form for ages now. Sounds like you're trying that ivory tower librul stuff to confuse the issue!
And gotta love that nefarious "left". Even when Trump is running things with a belly-showing fearful Congress and (most of the time) a pet Court, it's always "the left" at fault. That takes some doing, how about we try putting "the left" in charge as they are obviously pretty clever.
I'm certainly no economist, how long would it take for companies to start manufacturing stuff in the US with US-made parts? Pharma, goods, whatever. Is that even remotely possible? And if it is, are we talking years, decades? And all the while the fucking dipshit is doing press conferences with his usual blather like "companies are coming back in great numbers to the US". Present tense. Fucking name one would be a question I'd love for him to be asked...maybe he was and he just ignores it like usual.
Even entertaining that dubious premise, what company would even begin to start moving back due to tariffs when the damn things are here one day, paused the next, and it's obvious there's not even a ghost of an actual plan regarding them. It's usual Trump "in the moment" stuff. He's doing his shakedown thing, except now with countries. Threaten, and get your way, and if not, you sue. This is what he's done thousands of times.
In Trump's America, books are only for burning.Alas, a lot of books are printed in China, it turns out.
It's going to hit a lot of small businesses as well, and people are likely to lose their homes and savings because of it. Case in point, this CNN interview:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owp8WzgYLyA
BTW That's not the only interview I've seen where someone designing and selling injection-molded plastic goods had essentially been forced to go to China in the first place, because they couldn't find any local companies will to look at it due to the costs of tooling and spooling up manufacturing.
Don't worry, the higher quality electronics, hardware will go up more in price than the cheapest stuff. Cheaper crap have higher margins meaning low price when going through customs = low tariff cost compared to margin. Actual quality stuff = lower margin, which will mean a need to raise prices much more.Wait, is this a bad thing? I'm trying to avoid them, now they will volunteer to disappear?
I was born in Tianjin, the port city that feeds Beijing. The old parts of the city is a monument to that. There are portions that have completely different architectures because the city was carved up by the European powers and the people displaced.China already has a giant cultural chip on its shoulder about getting bullied economically by Western powers. Most of us don't know the first fucking thing about the Boxer Rebellion and the foreign concessions and treaty ports and so on, but they have not forgotten, and their rise as a great power is in large part motivated by "no other nation will ever do that to us again, ever." Face is a big part of this, no doubt, but this is about national self-image, at this point, and not without historic justification.
Just going to address the bolded part. It will take decades and will require massive government subsidies to build and run factories crewed by workers and engineers who have to rebuild a knowledge pool from zero.
Same way china originally did it. Churn out cheap shoddy shit no one wants until your factories and engineers are good enough you produce world class product and everyone wants you to build their shit.
Tim Cook, then CEO of Apple said it best way back when.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/...t-if-apple-were-forced-to-make-it-in-america/
And it's no rosier today.
https://futurism.com/trump-iphones-america
Bold text -> this is basically like any science. I studied physics and (later) economics. Both are very different but both share this common characteristics: it's very easy to get it wrong.Economics is a complex subject and very difficult to learn about on a good day. People get degrees in it, spend their lives researching it, and still get stuff wrong about it-- constantly.
That's people who are interested or passionate about the subject. Your average voter? Good lord is it frustrating watching people suddenly trying to pretend they're conversant in one of the most complex disciplines on the planet.
One of my econ professors once said that if anyone confidently asserts anything after the sentence "I'm an economist", you should stop listening to them immediately. They could be right, wrong, or anything inbetween, but they almost certainly have no idea what they're talking about.
I get that it's super frustrating but there's a reason that people who actually know things about the topic couch their language carefully, hedge their bets, all the annoying things that make it hard to get a straight answer out of someone. It's because there usually isn't one.
So to circle all the way back around: we're getting the results of economic policies made by idiots who were voted in by idiots. Love this for all of us.
While it will be very painful in the medium term, this is a good thing. Dependence on the single most dangerous enemy we have for just about everything is a disaster, and this is our only way out of it.
If Trump doesn't back down on them and especially if he keeps adding more and more to them¹ you can also add "Goodbye Black Friday" this year. Most of those special deals Walmart, Target, etc. have for Black Friday each year come from China.
And pretty soon you can also say "Goodbye Dollar Tree," since they've reported in the past that between 41% to 43% of their products are from China. (Same will likely happen to Dollar General as well.)
¹ It's clear Trump thinks a big enough number will get China to back down, but I doubt even 1,000,000% tariffs would do that. In fact the higher they go, the more China's going to dig in its heels and refuse to budge. It's probably already about saving face for them and they aren't going to lose face just because Trump is throwing a tantrum.
I’ve heard that for an economist, the real world is often a special case.Economics is a complex subject and very difficult to learn about on a good day. People get degrees in it, spend their lives researching it, and still get stuff wrong about it-- constantly.
That's people who are interested or passionate about the subject. Your average voter? Good lord is it frustrating watching people suddenly trying to pretend they're conversant in one of the most complex disciplines on the planet.
One of my econ professors once said that if anyone confidently asserts anything after the sentence "I'm an economist", you should stop listening to them immediately. They could be right, wrong, or anything inbetween, but they almost certainly have no idea what they're talking about.
I get that it's super frustrating but there's a reason that people who actually know things about the topic couch their language carefully, hedge their bets, all the annoying things that make it hard to get a straight answer out of someone. It's because there usually isn't one.
So to circle all the way back around: we're getting the results of economic policies made by idiots who were voted in by idiots. Love this for all of us.
Inbound tourism to the US has been collapsing since January even before accounting for shopping tourists. The obvious reason is the daily horror stories of Germans, Brits, Canadians, Irish etc who got "accidentally" caught in the machine of ICE and their private subcontractors.I can only speak from personal experience and the people I know, but a lot of us used the trips to the USA to buy tech products and bring them back home, laptops, consoles, phones, etc (I even brought an iMac once). It was mentioned in the Vision Pro article on Ars, that a lot of the customers in New York were foreigners. This will completely disappear, even with 10% tariffs, costs will be the same as in other parts of the world and both sales tax for states with many visitors and income for many retailers will drop.
They can - they just wont.I just wish there was a way for Amazon sellers (and all retailers) to show what portion of the price is from tariffs.
To add to this I just reminded a friend yesterday if they cared about mfg why are they trying to to destroy the IRA and Chips Act? Those were both the best ways to get people to invest here in addition to needing to completely overhaul the education system to get people in programs with knowledge for those jobs. We tossed it all decades ago. And if Craftsman owned by another giant mega Corp can't make a new mfg plant in TEXAS of all places can't make it work before all this tariff nonsense, what makes you think playing economic terrorist is going to do anything other than just hurt us?We have jobs now. Unemployment is low, factories have a hard time hiring right now with less factories here than overseas. The "hollowed out" work population is a talking point from the 80s and 90s, the workforce moved on since then. The people who lost their job at the local plant 35 years ago are retired now, their kids are working somewhere else. Who is going to work at the factories of Trump's dreams that would come here?
Trump's brain is broken, he remembers shit from the 80s and struggles with keeping up with today. He still whines about low flow toilets and has an idea of how people work that come from 60s sitcoms. Know what people need? Shit they can afford. Know what Trump is trying to eliminate with his giant tax hike? Shit people can afford.
Thank you, this comment wins the day for me....if the laws of physics changed a bit every time someone had a really bright or shady idea.
I.e. "Ugg lend spear to Ogg. Ogg give two shells with spear drawn on them to Ugg as reminder he owe Ugg two spears. Now Ugg has two spears, so Ugg and wife will go hunt wild boar".
Wonderful new invention to calculate debt as an asset. Unless Ogg fails to provide the spears upon which the boar kills and eats Ugg's wife.
"Ogg persuade everyone wheel is square. Ugg's Porsche business is now about low dinner tables".
At least when you build a fighter jet no one decides to redesign thermodynamics or periodic table elements while you work.
"Ugg angry with Ogg. Wants smash Ogg with Big Giant Club. Big Giant Club was Small Twig yesterday but Ugg sure renaming it make it hit harder".
They could, and might. A fairly respectable website recently reported VW would be adding a line detailing the tariffs right next to the destination charge on their Monroney stickersThey can - they just wont.
There is 0 reason i reseller cant list price then report "Tariff Markup" (and stick a Trump I did that stick next to it).
The US already doesnt include sales taxes in its listed price. So this is pretty easy. But again... they just wont bother.
China has expertise and supply chains that won't be able to be reproduced here for a very long time. Also, because of government central planning, they were able to set up a massive manufacturing hub that meant practically anything could be made efficiently and inexpensively that we'd never be able to reproduce. The components to make anything in an assembled product are all located in Shenzhen, they don't need a continent wide supply chain consisting of companies of varying reliability.
People who are not bright enough to see how well we have it and why, voted for a moron who is ruining this country. We're going to pay enormous taxes unnecessarily, because of stupid man's vibes and feeling's.
For a lot of folks, Dollar Tree is the only place they have to buy food and toiletries and other essential items.Oh no! Not Dollar Tree!
That's all comfy and nice but doesn't really scale. How do you deal with an Airbus 380? How do you lend something to Airbus to get a ride? You can argue, successfully in my opinion, that the current baseline assumptions of society are deeply flawed, but those are the basis of how we do things.One of the first things people are taught about economics is the story of how currency was created as a result of the deficiencies of barter, while COMPLETELY ignoring what came before barter, credit/debt based economies, and what came before that, people just doing what they can to help the community when they could. Then there is the near complete disregard for the tendency of humans to engage in mutual aid (you ever lend a tool to a neighbour?) and you get a field that is in many ways divorced from reality while also directly influencing it.
Then you get the mental health impacts of studying economics:
https://evonomics.com/how-learning-economics-make-you-antisocial/
And you have a recipe for a field that is deeply flawed.
It's going to hit a lot of small businesses as well, and people are likely to lose their homes and savings because of it. Case in point, this CNN interview:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owp8WzgYLyA
BTW That's not the only interview I've seen where someone designing and selling injection-molded plastic goods had essentially been forced to go to China in the first place, because they couldn't find any local companies will to look at it due to the costs of tooling and spooling up manufacturing.