It's really hard to buy a screen-less mac right now. Why? (POLL)

Why can't you buy a screenless mac

  • Sam (and his friends) bought all the RAM

    Votes: 17 20.2%
  • Everyone bought all the 24GB mac minis to run local LLMs on

    Votes: 15 17.9%
  • Just the usual stock depletion for new models coming out asap

    Votes: 9 10.7%
  • All of the above

    Votes: 40 47.6%
  • Something else

    Votes: 3 3.6%

  • Total voters
    84

thomahawk

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,050
Subscriptor++
Tim Cook explicitly addressed this on the recent earnings call. It's availability of the SoCs, not RAM, that is behind the desktop Mac and Neo shortages.

EDIT: more here.
Okok thanks, I did read that, good reminder.

So do we think that essentially they’ve bidded up fab capacity for the M5 process SoCs in advance? Or there’ll still be a lag to print more?

Edit: ok to reread again, clearly they’ve tried to get more made and they can’t. BUT that doesn’t explain them taking the higher RAM desktops off the market. I believe Tim re the model availability, but is it the whole story?
 

Matey-O

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,421
Subscriptor
If it turns out I as an individual can buy a supercomputer at retail because Apple provides f-all base cloud storage and forces people to upsell, renews a second season of Foundation, and brought tap-to-pay to America, then, well, thanks I guess.
We've been able to do that since my iBook G4, if the marketing schlock was to be believed.
 

wrylachlan

Ars Legatus Legionis
15,095
Subscriptor
Edit: ok to reread again, clearly they’ve tried to get more made and they can’t. BUT that doesn’t explain them taking the higher RAM desktops off the market. I believe Tim re the model availability, but is it the whole story?
The products you sell a lot of tend to have more predictable sales patterns and you worry less about being stuck with unused product, so you tend to build and warehouse more of them. That’s particularly true of chips because spinning up a run of a chip is not something you do lightly - it’s much more economical to do fewer large runs than multiple small runs. So even though Apple is just-in-time manufacturing the whole widget, they’re likely prestocking chips for months worth of computers on each fab run. That means Apple almost certainly had more low RAM package chips on hand when the demand both accelerated overall and skewed towards higher RAM packages. Put another way, “demand surges tend to hit low volume products harder.”
 

Slothur the Hasty

Ars Praefectus
5,806
Subscriptor
It is going to take a while to get used to for sure, but now typing from my MacBook Pro 16" M5 48GB/1TB thanks to a very dear friend from these forums. The M4 Mini I have been using since November 2024 was my first Mac experience since the iBook G3 300Mhz orange clamshell, but this is entirely different. I have a lot to learn it seems when having multiple devices.
 
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ant1pathy

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
6,995
Put another way, “demand surges tend to hit low volume products harder.”
Quote pulled for emphasis.

I get the impression that many people who are in the Ars commentary community and similar spaces have this mindset that the laptop / desktop mix is something like 60/40, maybe 70/30, when in reality it's more like 95/5. Even the OVERWHELMING DEMAND for Mac desktops probably hasn't moved the needle past 90/10, and even that is temporary.
 

dmsilev

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,458
Subscriptor
The products you sell a lot of tend to have more predictable sales patterns and you worry less about being stuck with unused product, so you tend to build and warehouse more of them. That’s particularly true of chips because spinning up a run of a chip is not something you do lightly - it’s much more economical to do fewer large runs than multiple small runs. So even though Apple is just-in-time manufacturing the whole widget, they’re likely prestocking chips for months worth of computers on each fab run. That means Apple almost certainly had more low RAM package chips on hand when the demand both accelerated overall and skewed towards higher RAM packages. Put another way, “demand surges tend to hit low volume products harder.”
There's also the issue that the base M4 is used for multiple current-generation products beyond the Mini (iPad Air, iMac), but the Pro and Max variants are now only used in the high end Mini and low end Studio. So, Apple presumably has regular production runs of the M4 scheduled on an ongoing basis and will keep doing so until updates for the iPad and iMac are near at hand. Balancing that supply with increased demand for base model Minis is a manageable problem. Scheduling an entirely new fab run for a new batch of M4 Pros and Maxes because high end Minis and base Studios have unexpected heavier demand is a much harder proposition. And the M3 Ultra would be even worse.
 

thomahawk

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,050
Subscriptor++
Ok, so we know that system availability is due to SoC fab/stock capacity not keeping up with expected demand.

But the configurations of those systems, especially the high RAM systems, surely must be subject to DRAM availability. This article articulates the RAMageddon quite well. My scare quote of choice:

A report from JPMorgan projected that memory could account for 45 percent of the iPhone’s component cost by 2027, against roughly 10 percent today. Within the year Apple will be forced to make a decision: either it will cut into its margins to defend market share, or dramatically increase prices on its products.

Now I’m expecting the M5 desktops to be available and ship quickly, but for higher memory configs to be astronomically expensive, and maybe 128GB+ simply not offered.
 

thomahawk

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,050
Subscriptor++
Apple will offer 256GB and 512GB RAM options on the M5 Mac Studios, even if those upgrades cost thousands of dollars. People will pay it. They are paying it now for used high-RAM minis and Studios on eBay.
I hope so. I am just extremely intimidated by how many thousands it might be. My money put aside is suddenly feeling insufficient.
 
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Bonusround

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Does anyone have any idea about how many people are taking advantage of the new capability to use NVIDIA and AMD eGPUs on ARM Macs? That's something that could increase demand among people that want them for AI.
It's certainly interesting, and one can imagine some uses that primarily cater to user convenience. Key is recognizing that Nvidia's Blackwell Pro line – their newest and most well-spec'd GPUs sold as add-in cards – top out at 96GB of RAM. That's a quantity which Apple's current desktops and laptops meet or exceed.

It's the large quantities of high-bandwidth RAM that put Macs in the good graces of local model execution; secondarily followed by the CPU's equivalently fast access to that same memory. NVidia's Pro cards are lesser on both of these counts. One needs to step up to Nvidia's very expensive rack-mount systems to exceed what Apple offers in their highest-end chips.
 
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It's certainly interesting, and one can imagine some uses that primarily cater to user convenience. Key is recognizing that Nvidia's Blackwell Pro line – their newest and most well-spec'd GPUs sold as add-in cards – top out at 96GB of RAM. That's a quantity which Apple's current desktops and laptops meet or exceed.

It's the large quantities of high-bandwidth RAM that put Macs in the good graces of local model execution; secondarily followed by the CPU's equivalently fast access to that same memory. NVidia's Pro cards are lesser on both of these counts. One needs to step up to Nvidia's very expensive rack-mount systems to exceed what Apple offers in their highest-end chips.
Do you have any real benchmarks showing the Mac beating NVIDIA cards? The only stuff I can find running actual benchmarks all show NVIDIA handily beating the Mac like this one.
 

Bonusround

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Do you have any real benchmarks showing the Mac beating NVIDIA cards? The only stuff I can find running actual benchmarks all show NVIDIA handily beating the Mac like this one.
It's not about outperforming Nvidia cards (some results I've seen show Nvidia far ahead on prefill, but falling behind Apple on token generation), it's whether you can load and run very large models at all.
 
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Scud

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,508
Token generation is directly realted to memory bandwidth and Apple doesn't product anything that comes close to the RTX 6000 (and probably never will). IMO, in the past the Mac Studios were great for simulating multiple RTX 6000 cards at a much slower speed. This (and CUDA, because the M cpus are ass for compute) is why Apple runs NVidia servers and not their own. That said for a use case like claw, the M4 Mini is a perfect box; low power, great bandwidth, good enough compute. A MBP 16 is a great LLM dev box as well (probably the best).
 
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Matey-O

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,421
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Do you have any real benchmarks showing the Mac beating NVIDIA cards? The only stuff I can find running actual benchmarks all show NVIDIA handily beating the Mac like this one.
This is what I don't get. Historically, computers did workloads in one of two camps: Instant, and batch. And yeah, I see a lot of numberwanking in the LLM subreddit about guys with personal servers and 4 6000 gpus saying they just aren't enough.

But for the workloads I'm running, the Studio is running between 40 and 80t/s and that seems to be fine. But maybe I'm not pushing things hard enough. Probably because I don't have all that much for the AI to do.
 

stevenkan

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16,327
I pled my case to our vendor and our Apple rep to remind them that the funding for the 28 M4 Max Studios I have on order has a drop dead date of June 30 and it seems unlikely that I'll have the budget to buy the Studios in the upcoming fiscal year. Within about 2 hours of doing that I got confirmation that half of the computers are shipping this week and they should have a more accurate date for the rest in a few days.
I ordered these computers in the first week of April and initially had a mid-May shipping date that had since slipped to June 20. The computers do exist but they are very tightly allocated.
Thank you for your sacrifice. This guarantees M5 Studios, coming soon!!
 

Matey-O

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,421
Subscriptor
What models are you currently using?
Qwen3.6 35B-A3B mostly for local, sonnet and haiku for the stuff that needs reasoning.

Local stuff has been surprisingly conversational, and confidently wrong in a lot of stuff, but not all of it and it’s the kind of thing that seems to be getting better all the time.

Have a project using copilot and sonnet at work that I want to throw at the studio and compare outputs but haven’t had a chance to try it yet.

https://unsloth.ai/docs/models/qwen3.6