It's really hard to buy a screen-less mac right now. Why? (POLL)

[lloyddean]

"and Apple underestimating demand"

I repeat - NEO

 

[Bonusround]

Keep repeating, but you previously said "memory being sacrificed to the [Neo]" and that's the bit Tim differs with. Cheers.

 

[chris_f]

"and Apple underestimating demand"

I repeat - NEO

It is not just the Neo. From Tim Cook at the investor call:

For Mac, in the June quarter, there’s two factors that are driving the constraints. One is that on the Mac Mini and the Mac Studio, both of these are amazing platforms for AI and agentic tools and the customer recognition of that is happening faster than what we had predicted, and so we saw higher than expected demand. The second reason is that the customer response to Mac Neo has just been off the charts, with higher than expected demand, and the March quarter record for customers, we set a March quarter record for customers new to the Mac, partly due to the Neo. We think, looking forward, that the Mac Mini and the Mac Studio may take several months to reach supply-demand balance.

Also from Cook:

We were constrained during the March quarter. This was primarily on iPhone and to a lesser extent on the Mac, and as we talked about in the last call, the constraints were primarily driven by the availability of the advanced nodes our SoCs are produced on. If you look forward to the June quarter, the majority of our supply constraints will be on several Mac models, given the continued high levels of demand that we’re seeing, and we have less flexibility in the supply chain than we normally would.

It doesn’t sound as though Apple expects Neo supplies to remain constrained for as long as the desktop supplies will be. They certainly are not currently nearly as constrained as Apple desktop supplies are.

 

[chris_f]

Yeah, I'm willing to believe Apple would preference the Neo, as a new initiative, over desktops. But if we're to believe Cook's statements on the recent earnings call, the current shortages are from 'leading-edge nodes' capacity and Apple underestimating demand, not from memory. He said this very explicitly.

It’s explicitly a crime to knowingly lie in investor reporting so we can believe what Apple is saying here.

 

[nytta0]

Have there been any shortages for the M5 MBA or MBP RAM configs?

If not I'd just chalk the mini/Studio issues to EOL for the generation and random blown up demand just eating the remaining stock much faster than anticipated. And they're not going to restart production or bring out the new models sooner than planned to cover the gap. Just hope that stuff is available sooner than later with WWDC and not just waiting even longer.

You're probably right, but I'm still questioning why they decided to remove the products outright instead of marking them as "Currently unavailable."

For the Mac Mini, it's very possible that it's about managing pricing expectations ahead of time, like you said before. I think it makes sense.

But it's very perplexing for the Mac Studio. Does that mean the 256 GB and 512 GB RAM options will stay gone once the Studio is refreshed with the M5? Will 96–128 GB be the max RAM we'll be able to give the M5 Studio? Given the way Apple decided to handle things right now, I would say it's a very real possibility.

 

[Scotttheking]

You're probably right, but I'm still questioning why they decided to remove the products outright instead of marking them as "Currently unavailable."

For the Mac Mini, it's very possible that it's about managing pricing expectations ahead of time, like you said before. I think it makes sense.

But it's very perplexing for the Mac Studio. Does that mean the 256 GB and 512 GB RAM options will stay gone once the Studio is refreshed with the M5? Will 96–128 GB be the max RAM we'll be able to give the M5 Studio? Given the way Apple decided to handle things right now, I would say it's a very real possibility.

My guess is a "yes and" situation.

They are constrained on their high end node = allocate SoCs to the most profitable systems.
But that doesn't address memory, since if you are SoC but not memory constrained* you'd want to sell the system with the most memory and/or offer the options customers want. Which implies they are also memory constrained.

However, if the M4/M3 packages are already allocated and now LLM demand has sold out the high memory ones, pulling those systems from sale on the grounds that they won't ever be coming back can make sense. It doesn't preclude them returning in the next model.

That doesn't explain the small disk systems being pulled though...who knows?

*unless memory prices have gone up so much there's no profit in selling more memory.

 

[stevenkan]

You're probably right, but I'm still questioning why they decided to remove the products outright instead of marking them as "Currently unavailable."

Because that would lead customers to delay purchases, as they hope for the desired models to become available again.

Yes, that might be better for customers, but it certainly isn't better for Apple. Apple wants to sell what they can, when they can.

 

[stevenkan]

This is my main bet, but I also think the RAMocalypse is real, and it’ll be harder than expected to smooth out the supply chain going forward; I’m not sure this will be a 2-month blip before we go back to regularly scheduled programming around October. If half of what the semiconductor fab analysis people are saying is true, Apple will need to make some hard prioritisation choices for another year or so, if nothing else.

Oh, it most certainly is real. I had an industrial computer with 32 GB of DDR4 quoted to me in September for $5,750, with the quote valid for only 30 days. When I tried to place a PO in January my PO was rejected, and a new quote issued at $8,935.

Yesterday I looked up pricing on completely different type of industrial computer, and the delta from 8 GB to 64 GB is $1,846:

That's ~twice the delta between the minimum and maximum CPU for this computer. Maybe Intel never should have abandoned building DRAM.

 

[nytta0]

Because that would lead customers to delay purchases, as they hope for the desired models to become available again.

Yes, that might be better for customers, but it certainly isn't better for Apple. Apple wants to sell what they can, when they can.

I don't know about that. If you were in the market for a 256–512 GB RAM Mac Studio, would you instead buy the one with 96 GB just because what you wanted suddenly disappeared? I don't think so, people who need such an unusually huge amount of RAM need it for clear reasons.

 

[Matey-O]

I don't know about that. If you were in the market for a 256–512 GB RAM Mac Studio, would you instead buy the one with 96 GB just because what you wanted suddenly disappeared? I don't think so, people who need such an unusually huge amount of RAM need it for clear reasons.

And sometimes those people can purchase through other channels. Just because it's not on the website doesn't automatically mean it's unavailable to everybody.

 

[stevenkan]

I don't know about that. If you were in the market for a 256–512 GB RAM Mac Studio, would you instead buy the one with 96 GB just because what you wanted suddenly disappeared? I don't think so, people who need such an unusually huge amount of RAM need it for clear reasons.

I assumed you were talking about the opposite case, where someone was looking for a 256 GB model, which then disappeared from the store. If I need this for a paying job, then the 512 GB would do the job, albeit at a hefty premium.

If I see "Currently unavailable.", I might decide to wait a week or three and see if it magically reappears.

But if I don't even see the 256 GB model in the store at all, I might pull the trigger on the 512 GB model so I can start working and billing.

Like the Osborne effect in reverse.

 

[nytta0]

I assumed you were talking about the opposite case, where someone was looking for a 256 GB model, which then disappeared from the store. If I need this for a paying job, then the 512 GB would do the job, albeit at a hefty premium.

If I see "Currently unavailable.", I might decide to wait a week or three and see if it magically reappears.

But if I don't even see the 256 GB model in the store at all, I might pull the trigger on the 512 GB model so I can start working and billing.

Like the Osborne effect in reverse.

Not sure I understand your point. The 512 GB RAM machine was completely removed from the store in March. The 256 GB one was removed a few days ago, leaving 96 GB as the highest amount of RAM you can put in a new Mac Studio right now. And by removed, I mean completely gone from the store. The 256 GB RAM model had already been sitting at "currently unavailable" for quite a while before being discontinued.

What I'm asking is: why completely remove those models from sale now instead of keeping them as "unavailable"? Why this strategy? Why is it advantageous to Apple? Does it mean the highest amount of RAM you'll be able to configure on the upcoming M5 Mac Studio is 96–128 GB?

 

[jaberg]

Does it mean the highest amount of RAM you'll be able to configure on the upcoming M5 Mac Studio is 96–128 GB?

I don’t believe this has any implications for the next generation.

 

[wrylachlan]

The M3 Ultra is pretty complicated for Apple to increase production of if there’s an unexpected increase in demand. You need to dust off the M3 Max mask, manufacture a few more wafers, then order RAM dies that are not used in any other Apple product at this point, find time on the packaging machine assembly line to connect the Max dies with UltraFusion and then add the RAM dies to the package. Contrast that to say increasing the manufacture of the Mac Mini M4 where the chip is still in use, the exact RAM dies you want are still in use, and you don’t need to fuck around with UltraFusion.

I don’t think that the discontinuation of the high end Studios says anything other than “we’re not going to even try to do an extra run of this chip to meet the new demand - just wait for the M5 Ultra.”

 

[Vincent Hanna]

Now its leaking into Macs WITH screens!

Apple May Drop Base $599 MacBook Neo as Chip, DRAM Costs Climb

Apple is considering dropping the cheapest MacBook Neo configuration as one possible response to the rising cost of building the popular laptop, according to Taiwan-based tech columnist and former Bloomberg reporter Tim Culpan.

The Neo currently starts at $599 for a 256GB model, with a 512GB version at $699.

Writing in his latest Culpium newsletter, Culpan says cutting the entry-level 256GB model is among the options Apple is weighing as component costs climb. Such a move would push the Neo's effective starting price up by $100 without raising the price of any individual configuration.

But again, the real culprit seems to be access to fab capacity more than RAM supplies.

Culpan says the pricing strain around the Neo is tied to Apple's push to ramp up manufacturing. Shipping estimates on Apple's website currently sit at two to three weeks across the lineup following stronger-than-expected demand, and the company is said to have instructed suppliers to increase production capacity to 10 million units, roughly double the original forecast of 5 to 6 million.

To meet its revised production goal, Apple needs a new supply of A18 Pro chips from TSMC. The Neo uses the same chip as the iPhone 16 Pro, but existing inventory was reportedly depleted by the early demand. TSMC is also said to have limited spare 3nm capacity, with AI-related orders consuming much of its output.

Apple's costs are being further complicated by the fact that the initial Neo batch used lower-bin A18 Pro chips with one GPU core disabled. However, a fresh production run would produce more fully functional chips, increasing the per-unit cost even before any expedited manufacturing premiums are applied.

A new run of A18 Pro chips is going to be VERY expensive, but if Apple is leaving another 5M of unit sales on the table, then it's probably worth it.

 

[dmsilev]

In that same MacRumors story, I can't say I understood this:

If Apple ultimately decides against dropping the $599 MacBook Neo configuration, Culpan says the company is alternatively considering introducing new color options for the current-generation Neo to cushion a potential price hike.

The linked page says

Culpan says that the runaway success of the entry-level laptop has left Apple paying more for the components inside it. As a result, he says new finishes are one option being weighed by Apple to keep enthusiasm high if those costs end up getting passed on to buyers. Starting at $599, the Neo is currently sold in Citrus, Blush, Indigo, and Silver.

"Sure it's more expensive, but now that it's available in Avocado and Harvest Gold, I'm all in regardless!". I mean, I understand the attraction of different colors and fully expect a new set whenever the Neo is updated (next year, likely), but in this market segment, a $100 increase in the base price is a lot and it kind of undercuts the whole reason for the Neo.

 

[jaberg]

in this market segment, a $100 increase in the base price is a lot and it kind of undercuts the whole reason for the Neo.

That will depend on how the competition responds.

 

[Vincent Hanna]

"Sure it's more expensive, but now that it's available in Avocado and Harvest Gold, I'm all in regardless!". I mean, I understand the attraction of different colors and fully expect a new set whenever the Neo is updated (next year, likely), but in this market segment, a $100 increase in the base price is a lot and it kind of undercuts the whole reason for the Neo.

Again, it is NOT a price increase. I'm sure the majority of buyers were already buying the $699 model with double the storage and Touch ID. Totally worth the extra $100.

People in this demographic care about color just as much as price.

So if Apple can't hit $599 for the Neo they should simply stop selling it? C'mon. They will still sell every one they can build at $699. ESPECIALLY if there are more colors.

 

[Vincent Hanna]

That will depend on how the competition responds.

I don't see what kind of meaningful response they could make. They were already behind the eight ball with the Neo, and Apple only offering the existing (better value) $699 model does nothing to change that. Expect sub $700 Windows laptops to get even worse through the end of the year, if they can even keep making them at all.

 

[dmsilev]

Again, it is NOT a price increase. I'm sure the majority of buyers were already buying the $699 model with double the storage and Touch ID. Totally worth the extra $100.

For some people, it certainly is a price increase. If you are in a position where either you don't need the additional storage or the $100 increment makes it not worth your while (or flat out beyond your budget), then discontinuing the lower end model will matter. I agree that from a "value per dollar" perspective, the 512 GB model is better, but absolute cost matters as well.

 

[dal20402]

I mean, I understand the attraction of different colors and fully expect a new set whenever the Neo is updated (next year, likely), but in this market segment, a $100 increase in the base price is a lot and it kind of undercuts the whole reason for the Neo.

Not if you can't produce any more Neos than you can sell at $699. It's still a very different thing than a $999 MacBook Air.

To be totally honest, I thought this had already happened (as I indicated in an apparently erroneous post above).

 

[nytta0]

For some people, it certainly is a price increase. If you are in a position where either you don't need the additional storage or the $100 increment makes it not worth your while (or flat out beyond your budget), then discontinuing the lower end model will matter. I agree that from a "value per dollar" perspective, the 512 GB model is better, but absolute cost matters as well.

Absolutely. You are completely right.

Repeatedly arguing otherwise reeks of privilege in the worst kind of way.

 

[Bonusround]

The five-year-old Walmart M1 Air was selling for $650, right? If Apple are only able to ship brand new Neos at $699, but continue to drop $100 for students and edu buyers, I'd say they're still doing alright.

 

[Vincent Hanna]

Absolutely. You are completely right.

Repeatedly arguing otherwise reeks of privilege in the worst kind of way.

You may call it semantics (or bizarrely, privilege) but again, what would be raised is the entry-level price, not the product price.

The reason this distinction is important is that almost every other manufacturer has raised prices on existing products. With them, you get the same thing for more money. With Apple, you get the same thing for the same money.

Another reason this is important is because if (when?) the day comes that, like Microsoft, Apple has to raise prices on existing products, that will indeed be an ominous sign. But that hasn't happened yet, and we shouldn't describe it as if it has.

 

[nytta0]

You may call it semantics (or bizarrely, privilege) but again, what would be raised is the entry-level price, not the product price.

The reason this distinction is important is that almost every other manufacturer has raised prices on existing products. With them, you get the same thing for more money. With Apple, you get the same thing for the same money.

Another reason this is important is because if (when?) the day comes that, like Microsoft, Apple has to raise prices on existing products, that will indeed be an ominous sign. But that hasn't happened yet, and we shouldn't describe it as if it has.

Thanks. Now that's an argument I can get behind. I agree with you.

Where I disagree is with saying that cutting the lower-end model doesn't really matter since everybody was buying the other, more expensive models anyway. Not everybody has the same budget and financial situation. $100–$200 can be incredibly meaningful to a lot of people.

 

[serinx]

Apple should just buy Micron and be done with it.

 

[Matey-O]

I had another thought...I've got an M4 on order, yadda yadda, supposed to be delivered around wwdc yadda yadda.

What if there's a change in price and they're giving folks a chance to stay or go? They've never done that before, but they've also not had the market pressures they have now.

I'm still not entirely sure how I'd feel if an M4 showed up, based on the improvements in processor performance and SSD speed...even knowing that for what I'm going to ask it to do, I won't ever know the difference.

 

[dspariI]

Do you mean if an M5 is out while you're on back order? Apple will call and cancel the order. That happened to me when trying to order an SE for my wife before the 16e was out.

 

[Matey-O]

I've seen both...order cancelled and 'shipped with the new hotness', but of all times, I'd think they'd cancel orders if the $2900 Studio becomes a $3300 studio

 

[Bonusround]

I've seen both...order cancelled and 'shipped with the new hotness', but of all times, I'd think they'd cancel orders if the $2900 Studio becomes a $3300 studio

Pardon the potentially silly question, but would Apple do that? Take your order for a given model at a determined price, then just cancel and peace out while offering no alternative?

 

[Slothur the Hasty]

I have a MacBook Pro coming in, perhaps at the end of the month. A 16" that I have yet to see live. Went to the store today to take a look at it a bit more, the major electronics store here in Norway with 140 stores, many of them megastores and I talked to the warehouse manager there for quite a while he rummaged through the systems.

They had one 16" MacBook Pro (36GB/2TB) in their entire system on the other side of the country on display and two more of the same in their warehouse.
No Minis, and No Neos. A few Neos as display systems around the country that you cannot buy, but even those display systems were spotty.

A new batch is incoming perhaps next week, but the dates are not set and moving as he told me with many systems backordered that would be shipped to customers waiting, but he could not see how big that queue was from his terminal.
He guessed that these slots were kept open for delivery if Apple found any units anywhere to fulfill backorders, but he thought supply would be constrained for a long time in general, and that was in general and not only for Apple.

MacBook Airs though they had plenty of.

 

[Matey-O]

Pardon the potentially silly question, but would Apple do that? Take your order for a given model at a determined price, then just cancel and peace out while offering no alternative?

Ask the people in this thread that had them cancelled. Just saying they’re mum on details. If there’s no way to build what I ordered….maybe?

 

[Matey-O]

Yes, more punditry. It's filling the hours til I find out what's happening with my order.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YhNYY1PsCM

 

[Scotttheking]

Yes, more punditry. It's filling the hours til I find out what's happening with my order.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YhNYY1PsCM

Is there a summary?

 

[Matey-O]

Similar to what we've said here...their normal CPU projections didn't account for AI and they're working to fill the channel for M5 Desktops...which may run dry after the initial announcement...the other thought is was that they might not want to deal with a bunch of M4 returns after the M5s come out.

 

[thomahawk]

Sounds like the video is summarising this thread.

I for one have resigned myself to never getting a Mac Studio, nor in fact a new computer at all. My release M1 MacBook Air 8GB/512GB will be the last computer I ever own. With it, I shall pioneer advanced memory compression and quantisation techniques to keep it on the cutting edge of computing, activities like “having more than one Facebook marketplace tab open for an hour” or “running Apple Music and two Microsoft Office apps at the same time”. Truly sci-fi actions like “launching Fusion360 at all” or “looking at one of those full resolution James Webb images” shall forever be beyond my grasp. Alas.

 

[Matey-O]

You should install Linux. With the command line you can play music and double your chrome tabs at the same time.

 

[halse]

So, the eBay price for a M4 Pro 48GB 2 TB Mac Mini is about $800 more than I paid in November 2024

 

[Bonusround]

So, the eBay price for a M4 Pro 48GB 2 TB Mac Mini is about $800 more than I paid in November 2024

Wow. eBay shows the only match for my M4 Studio at a full 2x the purchase price. (!)

 

[lloyddean]

Couldn't replace it for what I paid for it!