I mean... I think it would be hilarious if a Democratic run Congress cut funding to Trump's Secret Service detail since he has that mindset.
Domestic consequences of the 2024 US presidential election: the quickening
- Thread starter Scotttheking
- Start date
At this point, it needs to get absolutely bad for enough to recognize the GOP cannot govern. Question is how bad. Also will we even have elections as we once had them to have the opportunity to get them out.
In other horrible news:
The administration wants to increase the number of arrests from a few hundred per day to at least 1,200 to 1,500, increasing the chances that non-criminals will be detained.
In a country with as many (legally owned) firearms as the US, it's just a matter of time before it gets violent.
Given that we had two assassination attempts on a presidential candidate, the assassination of a healthcare CEO, and the storming of the Capitol after a national election -- it's already violent.
I wonder if those photos I have seen of the first lady count as 'educational' or 'artistic' or 'political'. They get a lot of play on Russian state tv when they make fun of trump so I'll go with political for 5 internet quaterloos.
Stagflation was ABSOLUTELY on my bingo card for this administration - high debt levels, check, plans to actually cut tax revenue via tax cuts, check, tariff policies that will drive up inflation putting rate cuts out of the question and if anything rate hikes on the horizon, check, tariff policies that will likely result in countervailing duties/tariffs, check, tariffs generally being bad for growth, check.
Basically, so far food prices are going up, long end interest rates have already moved up in anticipation of all this (one thing trump can't control, good luck jawboning the bond market, the fed, sure, maybe but the actual bond market, not a chance), mortgage rates will be higher, projects that were possible will become less financially sensible with higher rates and won't get started. Oh, and nothing like encouraging all your trade partners to try and do less trade with you and more amongst themselves. Its a shit show of incompetence all around. My prediction for my portfiolio over in the Boardroom was for 0% return this year and I actually think that is a bit optimistic.
The tariffs with Colombia are off already. Colombia reversed its policy and will be accepting deported migrants without restrictions. Funny how that goes... https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20p36e62gyo
Yes, Columbia decided it wasn't worth tanking their economy.
Not worth what? The only reason they denied it was the inhumane treatment of the deportees.
They gave an alternative option (using the Columbian presidential plane no less), and Trump tantrumed and declared 25% across the board.
Do you seriously think this is a good look for Trump and the US? Bonus points to the US claiming they had it already drafted in mere hours, I'm sure it was air tight and perfect.
I sold most of my US equities, it’s going to be an economic shit show.
Talk to the bond market, just the threat of them has already moved up long rates and they will stay elevated given the clown in question is nothing but chaos. As mentioned, one thing trump has zero control over and if anything can properly fuck up is riling up bond markets - look what happened to Liz Truss. He doesn't have to impose a single one, just continuing to threaten them is already going to be slowing the economy and pushing up the country's cost of funding.
And yea bjn, I have zero US equities and only a small exposure via a stock payment plan that is always sold day one. US stocks are priced for perfection with a dingleberry running the country. No thanks. I could be wrong there but what stocks I have are much more defensive and outside the US.
I think that was a mistake. One thing you learn with children is, if their tantrums get results, they’ll pull that tool out anytime they don’t get their way. Even if you stand firm the next time they’re rolling around on the floor in the supermarket, they know it worked once before so…
Colombia just told Trump his tantrums get results, so any time they don’t do exactly what he wants, no matter how big or small, BAM, tariffs for you!
I think any gloating or handwringing is premature until we clearly know what was agreed upon and how it differs from pre-Trump practices. Right now, reports are conflicting and unclear.
Sure, but Colombia just signed up for every Trump policy and demand, no matter how big or small because Trump will just wave the tariffs threat any time they don’t do exactly what he wants. At best you just made the pain worse because Trump knows you will cave given enough pressure.
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I was disappointed as well, but Colombia is a small country and did not sign up to try to reverse the irrational policy of a global superpower alone. Hopefully they are working on organizing a regional response from multiple countries who are unhappy with the capricious, xenophobic behavior or the gorilla to the north.
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Good luck getting the Colombians to go along with anything you aren't prepared to spend force or money to push through in the future. Oh, and you can probably say the same about many other South American countries. Brazil definitely.
Even the countries that do not like Gustavo and thought he's an idiot even before this will ... probably not like it. There's few things that can get South America as riled up about foreign relations than an overbearing US, because almost every fucking country has ... a history with how that goes. Even if you exclude Bolivia, Cuba and Venezuela as "well obviously they don't like the US": Argentia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Panama all have direct experience of US-backed regime change to authoritarian regimes.
What the US essentially told those countries is that they're contemplating a return to these sort of international relations. I wonder how well that'll go ...
That is before we get into the actual subject matter, which is why Colombia acted the way it does, namely the dignity of its nationals. They aren't the only South American country that has complains about this. One particular way to read your post is a crowing of how the mighty US is able to stamp on other national's dignity by virtue of economic and military might ...
I don’t see any other way to interpret the post.
Yeah, over 40% of their exports go to the US. A lot of their imports come from the US. It would be downright devastating to their economy (and to the well-being of Colombians) to further push the issue.
But they'll now probably work very hard to try to untangle themselves from the US' strings. It was all fine when they were only ever slightly pulled, now the hard tugs didn't go well.
There's a lot of institutional ties between both countries, especially with Colombia being one of the US' closest allies in the region, so maybe the relationship can withstand four years of Trump, although even in the best case it will come out frayed out of this.
But they'll now probably work very hard to try to untangle themselves from the US' strings. It was all fine when they were only ever slightly pulled, now the hard tugs didn't go well.
There's a lot of institutional ties between both countries, especially with Colombia being one of the US' closest allies in the region, so maybe the relationship can withstand four years of Trump, although even in the best case it will come out frayed out of this.
That is the plan. We’re federal employees. Our tolerance for bullshit is much higher than Musk and Trump could possibly imagine, because we don’t do it for the money. That’s a concept that they can’t ever understand.
It's not fair or reasonable to expect a small nation like Colombia to stand up to a massive bully like the US. Ruling a nation requires pragmatism, a will to sometimes go against your principles because your nation is more important. Trump is a moron who will never see that, but he's the US' problem, and only the US can fix that. Don't expect others to stand up and be destroyed for principles that the US (under Trump) doesn't give the slightest scintilla of a shit about.
Trump got his public win, he's going to gloat, and it's going to empower him to do more of it.
The actual details are irrelevant when it comes to him.
He’d do that no matter the outcome; as you say, the details are irrelevant to him. But we’re not Trump, and we don’t have to assess the outcome or react on his terms.
Trump announced his $500 billion investment in AI only a few days ago, and the market's about to open way down because China one upped Silicon Valley with pocket change and the limited chips they had from before the export ban.
There is a claim that some higher-up folks responsible for GenAI at Meta are shitting bricks, because the total training cost of DeepSeek is less than their individual annual compensation:
https://www.teamblind.com/post/Meta-genai-org-in-panic-mode-KccnF41n
https://www.teamblind.com/post/Meta-genai-org-in-panic-mode-KccnF41n
Here’s a pretty good summary of the whole Colombia tragicomedy:
edited to fix link and formatting
So I suppose we could treat this as a Trump win because he declared victory, but that would just be giving in and playing his game on his terms.
edited to fix link and formatting
The running joke is that the whole development of DeepSeek cost less money than Sam Altman's car collection.
Not to derail but curious if I can get pointed to best place to figure out what 'deepseek' is all about - if its something that will majorly hit the magnificent 7, would be good to know as part of investing strategy; not because I will be touching any of those stocks but a meltdown in valuations will drive rate moves and that is something vastly more interesting to me.
Is there any quantitative analysis on the effect of voter suppression and ballot rejections on the 2024 election? Does data exist to show how much or whether it mattered?
Sounds like south america should unionize.
well, Nvidia is down 12% this morning.
Potentially enough to flip Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
https://www.gregpalast.com/trump-lost-vote-suppression-won/
edit: ninja'ed by a red panda
https://www.gregpalast.com/trump-lost-vote-suppression-won/
edit: ninja'ed by a red panda
I've seen that one. I'm not sure what to think of its veracity.
If the numbers quoted and alleged are correct, I am reminded of a decision text the Austrian Constitutional Court in 2016 that ordered a second presidential election.
In their opinion the court held that the integrity of elections are paramount, and that elections must be free from anomalies that could have changed the electoral outcome. Could, not did. It is not necessary to show that it actually changed the outcome or not, because it is the duty of the state to conduct elections in a fashion that allows the citizen to be convinced of the electoral outcome's correctness, free not only of provable defect but also of potential defect.
Under that standard the unexplained rate of non-white provisional ballots, the handling of provisional ballots, and the unexplained disportional impact of various state measures on electoral outcomes would have, had it happened here, led to a court-ordered second election.
Now of course this is a court of an entirely different country, and we all know that legal standards in the US are quite different; the hanging chads and the 2000 election (another result that would never have been allowed to stand, and that would have forced a new election, under our laws) in Florida comes to mind.
The standards the US applies to its elections are, however, indicate of how much importance certain parts of the US nomenklatura place in preserving the integrity of the franchise.
My prediction is that it will be shown conclusively that the election was swung by suppression and that nothing will come of that.
VividVerism
Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
Nothing will come of it? We won't be so lucky. If it is proven (I am currently skeptical but will read the couple links on the topic so far) then they're going to do it harder, and more blatantly.