Domestic consequences of the 2024 US presidential election: the quickening

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Numfuddle

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If you want to know what the plan is look at the transformation of Nations from democratic states to dictatorships in the 20th and 21st century. For example Nazi-Germany (THE template) or China or the transformation of Eastern European states after WW2. Expect that they will care for the rule of law until after the inauguration is over then they will simply ignore everything and are either getting away with it because there is no enforcement of the decisions against them (and let's be honest there mostly isn't because almost all of the people involved should be in prison for treason and not be part of an administration), because they have stacked enough of the courts already with loyalists to block any decision against them, or because they simply do no longer care.

The question should be: If they do everything they announced they would do, who is going to stop them? If the answer is "I don't know" then expect them to do what they want, "shock and awe" as many people as quickly as possible and then try to use the chaos to fortify their positions before society as a whole has had time to process it.

They will use their position to do what they want, ignore any procedural or legal challenges and then check if they got away with it or not. They will abuse the fact that the people supporting Democracy will want to follow the process (because if even the Democracy advocates abandon the process then we're already deep in civil war territory). They'll ignore decisions that went against them (e.g. should the SC decide what they are doing is illegal) and do it anyway unless their opponents use real force (Police, National Guard, Military, Vigilantism) and if their opponents use real force they'll use it as additional reasons to crack down on the opposition. They'll claim that all decisions that went for them need to be respected because disrespecting them would be anarchy and a sign that the system has failed and that their opponents are the real enemies of the state.

They'll try to create a new status quo as quickly as possible every time so that their opponents are skating to where the puck no longer is and they'll use the confusion to stack as many of the institutions with as many loyalists as possible.

They'll use all kinds of intimidation tactics to get what they want. They'll fire people who are not loyal or they'll intimidate them into not resisting ("you have a family to support", "you have seen what happened to the other guys who resisted" etc).

In Nazi Germany it took Hitler 6 months from the time he became Chancellor (with 33 percent of the vote) until they had used their emergency powers to end the Weimar republic. In Iran it took about 1 - 2 years. In East Germany and other Eastern European States the process was slower but Russia didn't need to rush because the Russian occupied territories were de-facto autocracies already and going slow was easier and caused less push back by the population.

People always imagine that there will be tanks rolling in. This will only happen if they fail and need to support their position by force. If they are competent the takeover will be complete before most of the people have even noticed that it was happening.
 

Numfuddle

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Sorry, I'm picking up the pieces to my irony meter, as it exploded when reading this.

Anyway, as expected, we're already starting the process of slashing safety net programs to pay for exploding the deficit and debt to try to pay for tax cuts for ultra rich people and corporations:
The tax cuts on overtime and tips are easy because they’ve stated they also want to abolish e.g. the overtime pay regulations and unions. So no need to cut taxes once overtime as a concept no longer exists and no unions are there to enforce them
 

Numfuddle

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True. Relying on contractors also avoids pesky adherence to ROE and bad publicity. It's part of why these same companies were used in the Iraq and Afghanistan engagements. Something bad happens—blame it on the contractor—who in turn provides the people who break the rules to the court. The DOD stays out of the fray. If a contractor really makes the administration look bad, oh well, on to the next.

And, based on the election outcome, the talk of domestic military action may be a bit overblown at this point. The immigration issue was cited as a major concern by voters. Doesn't look like there will be much resistance to ICE initiatives from the public here.
They are talking about using the military to act against „sanctuary cities and states”
 

Numfuddle

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Just in case there was any doubt in your mind as to the intentions of Republicans in establishing an autocracy...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ru...o-senate-successor-amid-calls-trump-fill-seat
They flipped out over Hunter Biden making money off his family name, and they are ready to appoint a Trump family member to the senate, ANY Trump family member will do, because of their name.
They can do this because your whole media and part of the potential voting public is gleefully holding Democrats to an impossibly high standard while they don't do the same for republicans and they know it and exploit the fact.
 

Numfuddle

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As @Nekojin relates, using contractors instead of the military sidesteps thorny issues entirely.

Project 2025 talks about a bloodless coup. That may happen.
I know, I was talking about the “not much resistance“ part. Some states have already stated that they won’t comply with the federal government (e.g. California) and the Project 2025 people expect a certain amount of resistance and think it is likely enough that they added a provision to their manifesto on how they want to deal with that.

I was using military as shorthand here. They will use some sort of (semi-)organized military or paramilitary to achieve this. The type of org is TBD
 
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Numfuddle

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The somewhat ironic thing is that exaggerating the Dems positive polling status had actually been a GOP tactic in the past. They would encourage some amenable pollsters to show Dems leading strongly, to make lazy Dem voters conclude that a win was already in the bag so they wouldn't bother going to the polls.
That and also it encourages protest voters to go forward because it#s easier for them to vote Trump to own the libs or to vote Jill Stein or write in Huack Tuah Girl when they are reasonably sure that their vote does not matter.

See Brexit where a lot of people afterwards said something to the effect of "I voted for Brexit to stick it to the man but I was absoluetly certain Remain would win"
 

Numfuddle

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After letting 1/6 slide, the Republicans in the Senate have no credibility at all any more. The current proceedings are just the cherry on top.

Some have likened the current state of the US to the Roman Empire. There is one striking similarity—it appears that the Senate is becoming a mere shell of its former self.
What would be the Rubicon in this scenario? The Potomac?
 

Numfuddle

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It's hard to express conviction and be taken seriously when people don't give a shit.

I like Stewart, but remember, he's a comedian, not a politician. Just last week, he complained about the Democrats not messaging enough on kitchen-table populist issues and said that focusing on threats to democracy sounded nutty to many voters. Now, he derides Dems from the other side.

It's fun political entertainment and can occasionally be enlightening, but that's about it. It's also a rage-spinning machine, though not as terrible as anything on Fox.
Stewart is also not the same person he was 15 years ago when the Show was at its prime. He has been treating this election largely like he would have treated an election 10 - 15 years ago and you could clearly see that he's not reallly the person you'd need to make sense of 2024 America.
 

Numfuddle

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The goal is not to govern, the goal is also not to govern effectively. The goal is to completely dismantle the federal government and change the remaining bits so that the most amount of money can most effectively be funneled into the coffers of the oligarchy.

They will try to tear down anything that "costs taxpayer money" but doesn't help get them richer. So any sort of social programme that is publicly owned and doesn't work for profit (social security, medicare, medicaid, pensions etc.) because there the government is a competitor to private entities like healthcare insurers or pesnion funds.

Any sort of oversight like the FDA or FCC or hell even OSHA because thats "government interference" into how they conduct business and they could be so much more efficient (aka. cut more corners) if the governmetn didn't tell them to not dump toxic waste into rivers.

What they want is a rigged system where they make all the money and where there is absolutely no way for any sort of upstart competition to eat their lunch. Also a system where there is no government institution that could interfere with their business, tell them what they can/can't do or provide any sort of "level playing field"

They don't care that the government is supposed to help the other 300+ million people as well or provide them with any service. If they could they'd privatize every aspect of outr lives in such a way that it is certain and codified into the system that only they are profiting from that in perpetuity without any risk
 

Numfuddle

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My expectation is that they'll keep the services that voters pay for, especially those that can be deferred to private companies in their hands, and then will make the payments mandatory and excessive.
I restate what I wrote a few days ago:

What they want is a guaranteed revenue stream Ideally without doing anything. That's why they are going after government. They want to privatise government services because those are revenue streams that don't end up in their bank accounts, they want to privatise government services because it's competition and they don't want competition. They'll close government oversight agencies because they prevent them from cutting corners and from defrauding customers and from treating their employees like serfs. They'll close government oversight agencies because those try to provide a "level playing field" and encourage "competition" and they don't want competition. They also want to dismantle the government because the government charges a membership fee (i.e. taxes) and they don't want to pay.

The goal of big multinational US corporations is basically to get all of the money while providing no services, employ no people (that's why Meta and Google and Musk are so hyped about AI), pay no taxes and by having guaranteed risk-free limitless revenue due to being a monopoly in their field of business.

An ideal market for those billionaires is one where people are forced to pay for them in one way or other while they provide no service, pay no taxes and have no employees. If you listen to accounts by Americans how shitty a lot of their services are it seems like they are already frightingly close to that.
 

Numfuddle

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China's economy is also in somewhat more vulnerable position at the moment, having slowed down a fair bit. That said, they trade with lots of countries and have a number of levers to pull.

The US is both Canada and Mexico's largest trading partners, and there are less levers there to pull on their side, though the Mexico one in particular is stupid, given how much stuff we import from there.

If it's across the board, a good portion of produce and food is going to get more expensive, materials are going to get more expensive, and lots of consumer goods are going to get more expensive, to say nothing of whatever disastrous immigration policies get enacted. Inflation will likely be shooting back up, and then we'll be back to higher interest rates.

We'll see how markets react, but this may cause some people to bring forward purchases ahead of next year and on top of the holiday season, which may give Biden an even stronger economy going into his last months.

The fentanyl excuse for tariffs is dumb and not believable, but I guess no one's told him it can also come in by air or boat (hello, Florida).
It will be a one-two punch.

  • The tariffs will make everything that is imported more expensive
  • The deportations and immigration raids and "we don't believe your citizenship is real" actions will reduce the productivity of all business sectors relying on cheap (un)documented immigrants and increase prices of goods relying on them (so agriculture, food processing and construction mostly)
  • The "we roll back civil rights and women's rights to 1867" actions will lead to people moving states in droves leading to a huge brain drain in states that are already struggling economically
  • The mass firing of government employees and military servicepeople will put an additional strain on the economy
  • The scrapping of entire federal offices will also put a strain on the economy (less domestic spending)

It's like an any % speed run on how to ruin your economy
 

Numfuddle

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So it seems like Musk has posted a "list" with avtual names of government employees he'll cut once Trump is in power and apparently a lot of other Trump cabinet members have lists of enemiesnames they want to cut as well.

Raiklin's targets are mostly people related to the "unethical vaccination programs"

What those lists includes lots of: women and members of minorities
What those lists inlcude less of: white men
 

Numfuddle

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That’s how the transition works…incoming admin sends people in to learn new org. Usually not a bunch of idiots, but as has been covered ad nauseam, turns out the presidency is a lot of norms, not rules.
You would do the same in a corporation if managemant or important staff changes. You have an interest in operations continuing with the least amount of friction. Unless you want things to slow down or grind to a halt because the new guys have no idea how anything day to day works.
 

Numfuddle

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Musk twice did something super close to a nazi salute in the post inauguration speech.
It wasn't "super close" it was a full on Nazi salute. Don't beat around the bush and the time to give people like him the benefit of the doubt is over (has been over for half a decade)

He's such a dork that he makes even a Nazi salute seem awkward but it nevertheless was a Nazi salute.
 

Numfuddle

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There are a couple of hobbies I have where the community largely communicates via their platforms.
The biggest threat from that front is Discord. Basically all hobbyist groups I know moved from forums and facebook groups to Discord.

At least with Facebook, I can read it without an account.
How? I can't. Even if the profile is public you usually get two or three posts in until you get the "please create an account to read more" dialog. This is usually where I close the page and leave because I only barely have interest in a facebook group as is.
 

Numfuddle

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Numfuddle

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Numfuddle

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Oof. RIP Taiwan, I guess. At least for now it just looks good old-fashioned protectionism rather than a petty personal grudge, but give it time.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/...wan-says-chip-business-is-win-win-2025-01-28/

Either way, it doesn't really bode well for his continued willingness to provide them with weapons or military backing.

Domestically, don't most of the high-end phones in the US contain Taiwanese-manufactured chips, because they're the only ones with the tech to make them in the cutting-edge process sizes? I feel like this one will almost exclusively hurt American consumers.
The issue is that Trump also said he'd cancel the Biden CHIPS act. So there won't be any TSMC (or even Intel) run domestic fabrication of silicon either.
 

Numfuddle

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Simply - A very long time, it is ferociously difficult to build a foundry and getting decent yield needs vast experience.
It's so expensive that most of TSMC's competitors simply gave up and stopped and even companies like Samsung or Intel have to invest massively and sometimes still screw up.
 

Numfuddle

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Right, but the point is, the US isn’t in a trade war with Canada - they’re in (or getting into) a trade war with everyone. And the US isn’t THAT large an economy that they can just take in the rest of the world without feeling the pain.

So the US is risking losing business with basically every country, but Canada is losing business with one country
It also assumes that the US has exclusive merchandise that no one can be expected to replace which is also not true. Take China for example who simply replaced their Soy bean oders coming from the US with offerings from I believe Brasil and Russia among other countries.

This screwed the US over multiple times. Firstly it screwed over US farmers who didn't have anyone to sell soy beans to and lastly it also screwed over the US's global interests and soft power because it gave Russia an additional income stream and money and made them more resilient against embargoes.
 

Numfuddle

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Numfuddle

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This is where Trump doesn't get it. Or maybe he does and is willing to gamble everyone's lives with it... But he'll never see it come to fruition within his lifetime either way.
They are aware of this and don't care. Musk is on record saying something to the extent of "a lot of Americans will suffer but in the end everything will be better"
 
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Numfuddle

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Musk posted a picture of the daughter of the Judge that unfroze government funds and all of her personal details like job info including her last tax filing.

That’s by the way one reason why you want access to all of the government servers, to collect ammunition against your opponents

edit: retweeted Loomer and added his own info
 

Numfuddle

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This article in CALMATTERS has some good background on California's actions as far as undocumented workers goes. Starting back in the 1990's and showing the changes between State and Federal laws covering these workers:

CA has 1.8 million undocumented workers.

Nov 1994, Prop 187 - state law allowing police to check citizenship status.

Soon, it was overruled by a Federal judge "the authority to regulate immigration belongs exclusively to the federal government"

Since then, the tide of public sentiment has come in favor of the workers, and our resulting stance on sanctuary laws and support for various benefits for all residents.



So, here we go again. The article cites the problems Illinois is now having with USAG Bondi and her hard ass stance on their laws. We'd guess they will turn the spotlight on CA soon enough. There have been some reports of farm crews not showing up, but I"m unsure where we stand now.

The understanding towards undocumented workers in CA is an old one and have changed often over the last 40 years. I have not seen any reports yet of produce rotting in the field and a head of lettuce I bought two days ago was $1.99, which is down $1.50 from the price at Jan 1.
So far so good, I don't think it will stay this way for long however.
Going by the fact the federal government really doesn’t seem to have any actual force authority couldn’t states like California simply ask the agencies to get bent? You know basically what red states and the previous Trump administration did quite successfully?
 
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Numfuddle

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....if they fall for the trap. It's entirely possible for them to align their US strategy to their global strategy instead of the other way around. Trump easing CAFE standards doesn't mean you are compelled to make a more polluting car you can't sell in the EU or China. Cancelled EV credits don't prevent Ford from using Model E and Blue to break the back of the franchised stealership model.
If I go with Ford as an example they'll definitely fall for the trap. Ford has basically fallen back entirely on the US market and the demands for huge gas guzzling trucks. To an extent that they are in the process of winding down Ford Motor Company Europe - the part of Ford that makes the cars that they sell in the rest of the world like the Fiesta or Focus or Kuga etc.

Production of the Focus as well as other cars will end in 2025 and then they'll only have the Mach-e and the Electric Explorer left. They are almost exclusively committed to production of trucks.

edit: The whole US car industry seems to be in line with conservative voters' demands and Trumps agenda which will limit their entire market to the parts of North America that forego CAFE regulations.
 

Numfuddle

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An increase in price on basically anything that has to do with computers and components that will be affected by these tariffs?

GPUs, CPUs, (Intel, AMD, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Google (Android), Apple and i gather most OEM computers will be more expensive. Europe does not really have much to offer except ARM, but i do not see any European OEMs offering ARM to the public.

Qwant is a good French search engine though that i have been using for a year.
Most of those companies don't manufacture in the US or have sizable manufacturing locations outside of the US. Apple manufactures in China and Vietnam, Intel, AMD and Qualcomm have foundries outside of the US (Intel has Israel e.g.) Samsung manufactures in Korea, TSMC is in Taiwan etc.

Also EU regulations require the data centers for the cloud based services of MS, Meta, Google et al to be located outside of the US.

Basically speaking the tariffs will mostly make computer stuff more expensive only for the US since a lot of the components are imported.
 
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Numfuddle

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The current narrative pushed by Musk, Trump and their right wing grifter base is that Social Security will "run out" of money. It is always posed as a question to no one in particular e.g. "when will social security run out". Making it seem as if SS is already on the brink of collapse.

You can see the transparent narrative that they are currently implying that SS is cash strapped and on the brink of collapse so that they can later act as if it wasn't them deliberately sabotaging it that made it fail.
 

Numfuddle

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They have made it clear for years that they'll be gutting Obergefell, Brown vs. Board of Education and Lovell vs Virginia.

edit: SC justices even guided potential lawsuits wrote commentary about potential issues with those SC decisions. It's been signposted since guys like Alito wrote basically walkthroughs on how they would challenge those decisions if they were bringing a suit to the SC.
 

Numfuddle

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I have a proposal to cut costs. Dissolve all of your intelligence and investigative agencies.

The US spends more on intelligence and investigative services than the entire federal budget of Germany - dozens of three letter agencies - and yet none of them have been even a little bit useful to prevent any of this from happening. They seem like a giant waste of money.
 

Numfuddle

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I don’t think it is necessarily within their remit to do anything to prevent any of this from happening, excluding the FBI maybe.

And with Trump delaying his trials until he secured reelection, there was nothing they could do above and beyond what they did do.
I'm almost certain that there's at least three different agencies that are responsible for protecting the US from any outside influence like for example installing a Russian asset as president or turning a bunch of politicians and media personalities into Russian assets or checking if money from rogue states like Russia is transferred into the country to bribe people or etc. pp.

The CIA wasn't as polite and hands off whenever a democratically elected South American government was concerned.
 

Numfuddle

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Republicans have a 5 seat majority, and Democrats are completely powerless? There are no avenues for them to take, there are no levers for them to pull, there are no negotiations to be made, they are completely and totally smothered out of the game and rendered completely irrelevant with a 5 seat minority?
Yes, because the republican party

  • is a cult with a lot of people blindly following their glorious leader
  • are deathly afraid of the Trump followers and what they might do to them if they publicly oppose him.
  • are faced with a number of billionaires who control vast swaths of the media and who have threatened to primary anyone who opposes Trump and their techno-dictatorship plans
  • are supported by a rising number of people that deny reality and resort to magical thinking
  • likes money

Peeling more than 5 republicans off from the group is practically impossible for two reasons

  • you'd have to find more than 5 republicans with a spine
  • you'd have to make sure that none of the Dems vote against you which is hard given that the Dems are basically 5 parties wearing a trenchcoat
 
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