Domestic consequences of the 2024 US presidential election: the quickening

Camacan

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Its not the sitting on the couch thats a problem with him :biggreen:
Couched:
(heraldry) Of a chevron, issuing from the side rather than from the bottom or top of the shield; couché.
To convey in appropriate or telling terms
I'm trying to couch this delicately: I don't think we should date anymore.
With respect to the Vice President of the United States of America circa 2026
████████ ██ ██████ █ ██████ ██ █ █████ ████████.
 

Shavano

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Or, like Australia, you could make it mandatory that they vote.
I think the evidence from 2024 suggests people can thwart the intent of the mandate. A little more than 3 million cast useless votes (either voting for nobody or for a party that didn't seat anyone in Parliament) and almost 1.7 million didn't vote at all despite the mandate. I guess it's high turnout overall, at about 73% of registered voters voting for a party that got candidates in Parliament.

Has there been any study to find out if that's effective in getting better candidates elected? Are their votes more effective? Do they at least understand what their government is doing and why better than countries that don't have a mandate?
 
Has there been any study to find out if that's effective in getting better candidates elected? Are their votes more effective? Do they at least understand what their government is doing and why better than countries that don't have a mandate?
Well, to be fair - what the US needs isn't to thrash around for a new way to force people to participate in its wretched voting system.

If I were King for a day over there I would:

1) Declare the constitution completely unworkable, and send it to a grand committee to work out the ground rules for the 2nd American Republic.
2) Forbid anyone from ever considering first past the post as a voting system
3) Declare upon my royal backside that if anyone suggested a system where an obvious madman could not easily be fired and jailed, I would fire and jail them.
 
Parliament is the expression of the will of the people. Parliament (or in the US case, the House of Representatives) is supreme. The other branches are important, and should be bound by law to their appointed roles and should act independent of parliament. But in the end, parliament should appoint or depose the principals of those branches. Yes, even the Senate. But try to do a better job than the UK where appointments to the upper house is a grift these days for prime ministers to toy with. And oh, the Senate is just a judicial review body. It has no ability to initate legislation.
 

AdrianS

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I think the evidence from 2024 suggests people can thwart the intent of the mandate. A little more than 3 million cast useless votes (either voting for nobody or for a party that didn't seat anyone in Parliament) and almost 1.7 million didn't vote at all despite the mandate. I guess it's high turnout overall, at about 73% of registered voters voting for a party that got candidates in Parliament.

Why are you down on people voting for unsuccessful candidates?
You're still stuck thinking in party mode - "the party got no candidates in parliament".
 

wireframed

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Well, to be fair - what the US needs isn't to thrash around for a new way to force people to participate in its wretched voting system.

If I were King for a day over there I would:

1) Declare the constitution completely unworkable, and send it to a grand committee to work out the ground rules for the 2nd American Republic.
2) Forbid anyone from ever considering first past the post as a voting system
3) Declare upon my royal backside that if anyone suggested a system where an obvious madman could not easily be fired and jailed, I would fire and jail them.
Unfortunately, I’m not sure how 3 really helps. It isn’t that there aren’t mechanisms for dealing with an unfit president. But if the general consensus is you can’t prosecute presidents or even high-ranking officials for obvious crimes, then a different system for doing it won’t change anything.

I won’t pretend to have answers, and it’s not the only problem with US political systems, but not holding the government accountable is definitely enormously problematic. Even ignoring Trump and his Teflon-like ability to evade consequences, it sometimes feels like being stuck in a locked room with an annoyed and mercurial tiger.

At least if presidents knew they would be called to answer for crimes like lying about WMDs, or running or backing coups against legitimate governments in other countries, they might be at least a little hesitant to deploy the cudgel of the US military…
 

Shavano

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Unfortunately, I’m not sure how 3 really helps. It isn’t that there aren’t mechanisms for dealing with an unfit president. But if the general consensus is you can’t prosecute presidents or even high-ranking officials for obvious crimes, then a different system for doing it won’t change anything.

I won’t pretend to have answers, and it’s not the only problem with US political systems, but not holding the government accountable is definitely enormously problematic. Even ignoring Trump and his Teflon-like ability to evade consequences, it sometimes feels like being stuck in a locked room with an annoyed and mercurial tiger.

At least if presidents knew they would be called to answer for crimes like lying about WMDs, or running or backing coups against legitimate governments in other countries, they might be at least a little hesitant to deploy the cudgel of the US military…
I think the only way we change this idea of you can't punish high government officials for crimes is to actually do it and point out that the world hasn't ended.
 

Bardon

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I think the evidence from 2024 suggests people can thwart the intent of the mandate. A little more than 3 million cast useless votes (either voting for nobody or for a party that didn't seat anyone in Parliament) and almost 1.7 million didn't vote at all despite the mandate. I guess it's high turnout overall, at about 73% of registered voters voting for a party that got candidates in Parliament.

Has there been any study to find out if that's effective in getting better candidates elected? Are their votes more effective? Do they at least understand what their government is doing and why better than countries that don't have a mandate?
I think it's the combination of a few factors:

Mandatory voting
Easy access to pre-voting, mail voting and other methods to ensure everyone gets their say.
Preferential voting, so no vote is ever wasted unless it's a deliberate donkey vote.
An independent body to both manage elections and determine electoral boundaries.

Any one of the 4 would be good, it's the combo of them all that I think works well. We do get our fair share of dropkicks (Pauline Hanson as a glaring example) but they tend to not have actual power, and even if we did elect a Trump-like PM they can be gotten rid of without an election.

Edit: There's even a website where you state your electorate and it'll list the candidates with links to their websites. You can determine how you want to vote and it'll generate an image of the actual ballot paper showing you how to list the candidates in the order you wanted.
 
Unfortunately, I’m not sure how 3 really helps. It isn’t that there aren’t mechanisms for dealing with an unfit president. But if the general consensus is you can’t prosecute presidents or even high-ranking officials for obvious crimes, then a different system for doing it won’t change anything.

It's such a coup (more or less literally) that the DOJ issues a couple of memos that in their opinion it's unconstitutional to press charges against a sitting president and we all treat it like it's an actual law passed by Congress, or even a judgment from the SCOTUS.

A few unelected bureaucrats write some memos and there goes democracy.
 
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It isn’t that there aren’t mechanisms for dealing with an unfit president.
But those mechanisms are completely unworkable.

One requires that the people who were directly employed by the boss, fire the boss.

The second require an unreachable ratio of votes in the upper chamber.

To fix it, require a simple majority vote in the House of Representatives about whether the House has confidence in the executive. If the House fails to pass a motion of confidence, hold a new election within a month, unless the House passes another resolution of confidence. If the House fails to pass a motion of confidence, the whole top level of the executive is fired.

That would put the pressure point where it belongs. The dynamics of the house would change completely, and maybe Americans would start to pay attention to the house elections.
 

Tijger

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But those mechanisms are completely unworkable.

One requires that the people who were directly employed by the boss, fire the boss.

The second require an unreachable ratio of votes in the upper chamber.

To fix it, require a simple majority vote in the House of Representatives about whether the House has confidence in the executive. If the House fails to pass a motion of confidence, hold a new election within a month, unless the House passes another resolution of confidence. If the House fails to pass a motion of confidence, the whole top level of the executive is fired.

That would put the pressure point where it belongs. The dynamics of the house would change completely, and maybe Americans would start to pay attention to the house elections.

There's no way that would ever go wrong in the US, right?
 
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There's no way that would ever go wrong in the US, right?
Well, are things going well now? Parliamentarianism is easier to course correct. I am sure that, in the words of Churchill, that Americans would do the right thing, after trying everything else first. Parliamentarianism seems the quickest way to that point in time.
 

Tijger

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Well, are things going well now? Parliamentarianism is easier to course correct. I am sure that, in the words of Churchill, that Americans would do the right thing, after trying everything else first. Parliamentarianism seems the quickest way to that point in time.

No, but imagine your rules with a RNC majority in the House and a Dem President. I bet that would go well. Or an RNC majority parliament with Trump, would they do their job then? Of course not.

Regardless, I dont see any appetite in the US for such enormous and game changing change, if anything you see them doubling down, even tripling down, on reinforcing a broken system.
 
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No, but imagine your rules with a RNC majority in the House and a Dem President. I bet that would go well. Or an RNC majority parliament with Trump, would they do their job then? Of course not.

Regardless, I dont see any appetite in the US for such enormous and game changing change, if anything you see them doubling down, even tripling down, on reinforcing a broken system.
I actually think the dynamics would change so much that the House elections would matter much more than they do today. I don't think the RNC (or the DNC) would exist in a parliamentarianist USA.

And I don't argue for the change, because I don't think it will ever change. People treat that constitution of theirs as if it's a sacred object, despite the fact that by all measurable metrics it has failed monumentally.
 
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I think the only way we change this idea of you can't punish high government officials for crimes is to actually do it and point out that the world hasn't ended.
I occasionally idly ponder a system which makes the simple assumption that the executive will commit crimes during his (or her) term, so he/she is automatically put on trial on leaving office to see how bad it was and how much time will be served. It's obviously nothing that would ever be enacted in reality but it's fun to imagine.
 

Shavano

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It's such a coup (more or less literally) that the DOJ issues a couple of memos that in their opinion it's unconstitutional to press charges against a sitting president and we all treat it like it's an actual law passed by Congress, or even a judgment from the SCOTUS.

A few unelected bureaucrats write some memos and there goes democracy.
I don't think it was even their opinion that it was unconstitutional, just that it was against policy.
 

Shavano

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Well, are things going well now? Parliamentarianism is easier to course correct. I am sure that, in the words of Churchill, that Americans would do the right thing, after trying everything else first. Parliamentarianism seems the quickest way to that point in time.
Churchill was unrealistically optimistic.
 
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linnen

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I actually think the dynamics would change so much that the House elections would matter much more than they do today. I don't think the RNC (or the DNC) would exist in a parliamentarianist USA.

And I don't argue for the change, because I don't think it will ever change. People treat that constitution of theirs as if it's a sacred object, despite the fact that by all measurable metrics it has failed monumentally.
Seeing how parliamentarian systems are currently working in real time in the UK and Israel, I doubt that the IOKIYAR norms currently in force in the US political ecosystem would even slow down much less stop. "Hippie-punching" would remain a popular political pastime.
 

wco81

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Seeing how parliamentarian systems are currently working in real time in the UK and Israel, I doubt that the IOKIYAR norms currently in force in the US political ecosystem would even slow down much less stop. "Hippie-punching" would remain a popular political pastime.

Are they? It seems Likud has dominated Israeli politics for a quarter of a century if not longer, with a PM who's both a domestic and war criminal.

UK politics, there seems to be deep discontent and they did Brexit.

Maybe the problem is that Russians and fascists have learned to game or hack democracy.
 

Shavano

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Are they? It seems Likud has dominated Israeli politics for a quarter of a century if not longer, with a PM who's both a domestic and war criminal.

UK politics, there seems to be deep discontent and they did Brexit.

Maybe the problem is that Russians and fascists have learned to game or hack democracy.
I think the US, Israel, and UK all got the results under discussion mostly by indulging in home-grown bigotry.
 
Are they? It seems Likud has dominated Israeli politics for a quarter of a century if not longer, with a PM who's both a domestic and war criminal.

UK politics, there seems to be deep discontent and they did Brexit.

Maybe the problem is that Russians and fascists have learned to game or hack democracy.
The hack in question being the selling of bigotry and exceptionalism to nationalists, and there just so happen to be a lot of buyers.
 
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Wheels Of Confusion

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Thompson Reuters fired a whistleblower for bringing an open letter to leadership about how ICE's use of their information databases violated company policy, public statements, and perhaps constitutional rights.
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/21/nx-s1-5786915/ice-immigration-enforcement-data-thomson-reuters
One of the key products Thomson Reuters sells to law enforcement agencies, including ICE, is called CLEAR, which aggregates billions of data points on individuals from public and proprietary records, as well as social media. CLEAR's platform also includes images from a network of license plate readers. ICE has a nearly $5 million contract with Thomson Reuters from May 2025 for "license plate reader data to enhance investigations for potential arrest, seizure and forfeiture."
[...]
In an email to NPR, Thomson Reuters said its tools "support investigations into areas of national security and public safety, such as child exploitation, human trafficking, narcotics and weapons trafficking and financial crime."
The statement continued, "We remain committed to this mission while maintaining strong safeguards that ensure our products and services are used in accordance with our contractual terms and applicable law."
The company has previously asserted that CLEAR was not intended to be used to help deport undocumented immigrants with no criminal records.
A Thomson Reuters description of CLEAR that no longer appears on the company's website but was archived by the WayBack Machine says it is "not designed for use for mass illegal immigration inquiries or for deporting non-criminal undocumented persons and non-citizens."
Company documents from as recently as February that outline the terms for using CLEAR say that vehicle registration data shouldn't be used for immigration enforcement.
[...]

But as news stories showed dramatic increases in the number of immigrants arrested without any criminal history, Little said she began to doubt the company's line.
And protesters in Minneapolis began describing that ICE agents knew their names and home addresses, seemingly from looking up their vehicle registration information from their license plates.
Little and other colleagues worried Thomson Reuters tools were possibly being used unlawfully in Minnesota, including potentially against the company's own employees there.
She formed a group of other employees and drafted a letter to their higher-ups about the issue.
"We are troubled by the possibility that [Thomson Reuters] products may enable activities that violate constitutional protections – including Fourth Amendment protections against unreasonable search and seizure, Fifth Amendment due process rights, and Fourteenth Amendment equal protection guarantees," reads a portion of the letter that Little then included in her lawsuit. "Thomson Reuters products may be used in ways that conflict with state and local laws in sanctuary jurisdictions, as well as data protection and privacy regulations at multiple governmental levels."
The letter asked for an all hands meeting to discuss the company's oversight of its ICE contracts.
"They called us brave for bringing it up to their attention," Little recalled. But she said nothing else happened, and the committee members felt "stonewalled."
[...]
Both the Minnesota Star Tribune and The New York Times wrote about the employees' concerns in March.
Five days after the Times article was published, Little was summoned to a meeting with HR where she was told she was being investigated for violating confidentiality and data sharing policies, according to her lawsuit. A few days later she was fired. The lawsuit says she was told she violated the company's code of conduct but she did not receive written findings from an investigation or an explanation of which provision the company alleges she violated.
Sadly familiar in today's work environment in the US. The word "investigation" is thrown around but really it's just a figleaf to invoke when you've already decided to fire someone.
 

flere-imsaho

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I sit on a local school board and recently we were considering signing up for CLEAR to help with our process to confirm that families that register for school actually live in the district (right now it's mostly our sleuthing plus some private investigators - CLEAR would absolutely save us money).

I quietly raised concerns about CLEAR & ICE (I posted about it a while ago in The Lounge, asking technical questions of Ars denizens) and we decided not to pursue using the product.
 
The SAVE Act has apparently died in the Senate, which is nice. The GOP will have to find another way to cheat in the elections this fall.
On the first item: Hooray!

On the second: Unfortunately, they have already deployed dozens of different ways....

We still need to overcome them, of course.
 
The SAVE Act has apparently died in the Senate, which is nice. The GOP will have to find another way to cheat in the elections this fall.
Okay, where is the SPLC getting that it has failed in the Senate?

Last documentation on H.R. 22 shows it was received by the Senate on April 10th, after it passed the House.
No votes up or down, no movement at all.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22/all-actions?s=1&r=5&hl=Save+act

I decided to check the Congressional Record for 20 April. If something had happened last week, congress.gov would have been updated by now. If it had happened yesterday, maybe not.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-04-20/pdf/CREC-2026-04-20.pdf

SAVE isn’t mentioned once. I did look for ‘22’. There are 88 instances of “22”, but none in reference to H.R. 22, the SAVE Act. There is also limited instances of ‘voting’, none of ‘voter’, and while there ARE 62 instance of ‘vote’, non pertain to the SAVE Act.


There is effectively no time limit on when the Senate can act on it (bring it to the floor, refer to committee, etc). If the bill hasn’t passed by the end of the Congress (so, start of 2027), then it expires. Until then? Further activity is up to the Majority Leader.

Finally, the SPLC is the only org I can find talking about it “failing”. The only other things I can find after a cursory search is sites referencing… the SPLC.



I suspect that is more than a little bit of hopeful/wishful projection by the SPLC, and nothing more.

Edit: Unless they are saying that because it isn’t explicitly in the budget resolution game-plan that Lindsay Graham has released, but that is FAR from becoming an actual Budget resolution at this point. Plus, you know, the House being involved. But that is strictly conjecture by me on the SPLC’s possible reasons for making a declaration like this.
 

Coriolanus

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Okay, where is the SPLC getting that it has failed in the Senate?

Last documentation on H.R. 22 shows it was received by the Senate on April 10th, after it passed the House.
No votes up or down, no movement at all.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22/all-actions?s=1&r=5&hl=Save+act

I decided to check the Congressional Record for 20 April. If something had happened last week, congress.gov would have been updated by now. If it had happened yesterday, maybe not.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-04-20/pdf/CREC-2026-04-20.pdf

SAVE isn’t mentioned once. I did look for ‘22’. There are 88 instances of “22”, but none in reference to H.R. 22, the SAVE Act. There is also limited instances of ‘voting’, none of ‘voter’, and while there ARE 62 instance of ‘vote’, non pertain to the SAVE Act.


There is effectively no time limit on when the Senate can act on it (bring it to the floor, refer to committee, etc). If the bill hasn’t passed by the end of the Congress (so, start of 2027), then it expires. Until then? Further activity is up to the Majority Leader.

Finally, the SPLC is the only org I can find talking about it “failing”. The only other things I can find after a cursory search is sites referencing… the SPLC.



I suspect that is more than a little bit of hopeful/wishful projection by the SPLC, and nothing more.

Edit: Unless they are saying that because it isn’t explicitly in the budget resolution game-plan that Lindsay Graham has released, but that is FAR from becoming an actual Budget resolution at this point. Plus, you know, the House being involved. But that is strictly conjecture by me on the SPLC’s possible reasons for making a declaration like this.
The bill is being filibustered by Democrats in the Senate, so it can't advance to cloture.
 
The bill is being filibustered by Democrats in the Senate, so it can't advance to cloture.

And? That was the case two weeks ago. Nothing has changed. What made the SPLC declare that it has failed now?

Thune hasn’t completely ruled out trying to pass parts via reconciliation. He’s come out against (but again, hasn’t completely ruled out) changing some rules around temporarily to get around the filibuster as it stands currently.

It’s just sitting there, like the overwhelming majority of bills that pass the House. It was dead on arrival until the Republicans started talking about trying to get it passed via ‘other’ means, and they’re still talking about it. So, again, what made this announcement particularly more relevant yesterday than two weeks ago?
 

GohanIYIan

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And? That was the case two weeks ago. Nothing has changed. What made the SPLC declare that it has failed now?

Thune hasn’t completely ruled out trying to pass parts via reconciliation. He’s come out against (but again, hasn’t completely ruled out) changing some rules around temporarily to get around the filibuster as it stands currently.

It’s just sitting there, like the overwhelming majority of bills that pass the House. It was dead on arrival until the Republicans started talking about trying to get it passed via ‘other’ means, and they’re still talking about it. So, again, what made this announcement particularly more relevant yesterday than two weeks ago?
Sort of not kidding: the Trump-as-Jesus AI image thing.

Between that and the Iran War we're seeing cracks in the GOP coalition and more people on the right willing to openly criticize Trump. It could be a sign of Trump's grip on the base weakening, and that makes it easier for Senators to just blow off his demands and attempts at bullying them.
 

Technarch

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Between that and the Iran War we're seeing cracks in the GOP coalition and more people on the right willing to openly criticize Trump.

Tucker Carlson publicly apologizes for endorsing Trump

“So I do think it’s like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. You know, we’ll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be, and I want to say I’m sorry for misleading people, and it was not intentional. That’s all I’ll say.”

Interesting that Carlson characterizes what he did as misleading people. So, like, lying.

But I have no illusions that this is really driven by anything other than self-interest. This is just what happens when puppeteers start to lose control of their puppet. In fact Carlson alludes to this later:

“I’ve always liked Trump and still feel sorry for him, as I do for all slaves… He’s hemmed in by other forces. He can’t make his own decisions. It’s awful to watch.”

For almost fifty years the GOP has tended to elect presidents that aren't supposed to make their own decisions, instead following the dictates of the oligarchy. What we're seeing here is a fracture in the oligarchy, presumably the Putin wing getting iced out by the techbros and Heritage Foundation. It won't be enough to get Trump removed from office--the Epstein class knows they're all going to jail if they lose power.