Domestic consequences of the 2024 US presidential election: the quickening

Soothsayer786

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iPilot05

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Pino90

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So, given the new tariffs, how long before USians consumers start feeling the pain? Do you have any insight?

I guess not too long, probably less than three months, when inventories will have to be replenished and companies will start to charge consumers for the tariffs. My understanding is that stagflation is coming and it will hit hard in the US (and also in Europe), while the rest of the world tries to figure out how to keep on doing business without US consumers.

At least I guess that every USian, including hardcore MAGAs, will understand how much the US used to rely on cheap manufacturing.
 
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zakael19

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So, given the new tariffs, how long before USians consumers start feeling the pain? Do you have any insight?

I guess not too long, probably less than three months, when inventories will have to be replenished and companies will start to charge consumers for the tariffs. My understanding is that stagflation is coming and it will hit hard in the US (and also in Europe), while the rest of the world tries to figure out how to keep on doing business without US consumers.

At least I guess that every USian, including hardcore MAGAs, will understand how much the US used to rely on cheap manufacturing.

Some places are already listing "tariff surcharge" on the receipts.
 
D

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So, given the new tariffs, how long before USians consumers start feeling the pain? Do you have any insight?

I guess not too long, probably less than three months, when stocks of almost everything will have be replenished and companies will start to charge consumers for the tariffs. My understanding is that stagflation is coming and it will hit hard in the US (and also in Europe), while the rest of the world tries to figure out how to keep on doing business without US consumers.

At least I guess that every USian, including hardcore MAGAs, will understand how much the US used to rely on cheap manufacturing.

I have decided to buy some of the random stuff that I am interested now instead of wait for price increase.
 

goates

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So, given the new tariffs, how long before USians consumers start feeling the pain? Do you have any insight?

I guess not too long, probably less than three months, when inventories will have to be replenished and companies will start to charge consumers for the tariffs. My understanding is that stagflation is coming and it will hit hard in the US (and also in Europe), while the rest of the world tries to figure out how to keep on doing business without US consumers.

At least I guess that every USian, including hardcore MAGAs, will understand how much the US used to rely on cheap manufacturing.
Apple is reportedly importing as much as possible before the tariffs hit. Not sure how long that will help though.

https://9to5mac.com/2025/04/07/iphone-inventory-united-states-planes/
 
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trukker

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zakael19

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Is this intended as media distraction from the news about handing over IRS data to a private company, or has something more nefarious been announced today?

https://meincmagazine.com/tech-policy...-at-irs-wants-easier-access-to-taxpayer-data/

The story is just circulating rn because some of the municipalities got early word, he wants this last time but it got talked down/cancelled. Now the DoD is talking about working it into the army 250th celebration (apparently they’re scheduling it for his birthday on June14).
 

Wheels Of Confusion

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I still believe we can get Democratic representatives/senators and a President over the next four years.
I really don't want to be the blackest rain cloud here, but: and then what? They're going to frog-march the entire Republican party and its funders to the gallows? They're going to somehow purge the hate and ignorance and fear and venom and spite from one third of the electorate? Return to the non-functional status quo that put us where we are today? Completely rewrite the Constitution and federal code? Abandon the unfettered plenipotentiary power they'd need to do such a thing and redo the basics of our form of government from scratch?

What does a thin D majority in 2026, 2028 get us? We can't even buy time before the collapse, it's already happening, happened in certain cases.
 

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Gary Patterson

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Trump announcing a giant four mile long military parade to celebrate his birthday.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-orders-four-mile-military-parade-for-his-79th-birthday

The event will cost $92 million dollars and will be paid for out of YOUR pocket. Yay government efficiency.
An amazing opportunity for Democrats to talk about the cuts to programs that saved less than this monument to vanity will cost. Meals on wheels had cuts so that older or helpless people are left to suffer and die, all for a few million. This parade will cost nearly 100 million and how many meals would that’ve bought?
 

Jordan83

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I really don't want to be the blackest rain cloud here, but: and then what? They're going to frog-march the entire Republican party and its funders to the gallows? They're going to somehow purge the hate and ignorance and fear and venom and spite from one third of the electorate? Return to the non-functional status quo that put us where we are today? Completely rewrite the Constitution and federal code? Abandon the unfettered plenipotentiary power they'd need to do such a thing and redo the basics of our form of government from scratch?

What does a thin D majority in 2026, 2028 get us? We can't even buy time before the collapse, it's already happening, happened in certain cases.

I don't know. I'm not smart enough to pretend to have all the answers to how we fix everything. I do know it takes longer to rebuild than it does to tear down. I also know it's easier to offer criticisms than solutions.

I just don't believe all elections are now functionally useless from this point forward, as others have been saying or insinuating a lot in this thread and all over this web site really.
 

Nekojin

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The only thing that would have a chance of working would be expeditious charges and public trials. But that would take forever to get sorted to start and would run headlong into political cowardice. And Republicans would fight it tooth and nail.

Then there would be the probability of blanket pardons.
The only thing that will actually work is to put the actual fear of consequences back into the Republican bloc. Trump is too far gone and too old to ever come around to thinking that he was wrong. He's going to bully and swindle money into his own pocket as fast as he can manage, and sail away on either a golden parachute (provided primarily by Roberts, Thomas, and Alito), or an age-related coffin.

It's all the people under him who need to have the wrath of justice fall down on them, hard. When it becomes obvious that the people under him are breaking, not improving, the US, perhaps the courts will start putting stiffer sentences on them. Reopen Guantanamo for Trumpists that were in positions of power and used it to harm the American populace.
 

Technarch

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I just don't believe all elections are now functionally useless from this point forward, as others have been saying or insinuating a lot in this thread and all over this web site really.

People believe all kinds of things, here and elsewhere. They are entitled to their opinions. But if they want us to change our opinions about their opinions, it'll take more than a faith based "I just don't believe".
 
I don't know.
I don't either, brother.
I'm not smart enough to pretend to have all the answers to how we fix everything.
Impossible. This not only won't be fixed, it can't. We can change into something else, hopefully something better, but a significant portion of the damage done is irreparable.
I also know it's easier to offer criticisms than solutions.
Oh, I have solutions. They just range from awful to unspeakable. The time for deploying reasonable solutions came and went. We're left with nothing but bad outcomes.

I just don't believe all elections are now functionally useless from this point forward, as others have been saying or insinuating a lot in this thread and all over this web site really.
How has electoralism served you up until this point? What indicators do you have that would lead you to believe that this time, it's different? And again, to what end? What scenario, what endgame do you see that can realistically spring forth from the Democratic Party and voting really, really hard?

I'm trying to be sober here. An end goal with no path is called a fantasy. Where is the path that isn't an Aaron Sorkin script, that takes into account the structural and moral weakness of the opposition?
 

VividVerism

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perhaps the courts will start putting stiffer sentences on them. Reopen Guantanamo for Trumpists that were in positions of power and used it to harm the American populace.
OR how about we finally close that human rights violating hell-hole that shamefully continues to stain the morality of the US as a nation, like we SHOULD have done more than 15 years ago when we had a chance? You know, so it's not conveniently available for the next psycopath to gain power who wants a nice offshore concentration camp to ship victims to without due process?
 

N4M8-

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The optimistic answer is out of the Trump Depression will come the New-New Deal. One can hope.
If this is functionally 1928, then I only have to wait about 22 years or so for things to get good?

That will only take me making it to second longest living male on either side of my family for the last three generations.
 
D

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If this is functionally 1928, then I only have to wait about 22 years or so for things to get good?

That will only take me making it to second longest living male on either side of my family for the last three generations.
Oh don't worry, most of us will die in the subsequent world war and probable famine before we have to worry about being old enough to see the other side.
 
Oh don't worry, most of us will die in the subsequent world war and probable famine before we have to worry about being old enough to see the other side.
thats part of what pisses me off. He will destroy independent wealth in this country — trump with his tariffs could destroy apple computer. Then he will launch some insane war on Iran and expect us all to fight it.
 

Macam

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thats part of what pisses me off. He will destroy independent wealth in this country — trump with his tariffs could destroy apple computer. Then he will launch some insane war on Iran and expect us all to fight it.

I’m not worried about that. I have my pronouns ready. Too woke to fight, too anxious to sleep.
 

Jordan83

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People believe all kinds of things, here and elsewhere. They are entitled to their opinions. But if they want us to change our opinions about their opinions, it'll take more than a faith based "I just don't believe".

Well, I cannot categorically prove to you beyond a doubt that something will happen in the future. Just as you cannot prove to me it will not happen. So I guess we're just going to have different opinions on this one.
 

Jordan83

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I don't either, brother.

Impossible. This not only won't be fixed, it can't. We can change into something else, hopefully something better, but a significant portion of the damage done is irreparable.

Oh, I have solutions. They just range from awful to unspeakable. The time for deploying reasonable solutions came and went. We're left with nothing but bad outcomes.


How has electoralism served you up until this point? What indicators do you have that would lead you to believe that this time, it's different? And again, to what end? What scenario, what endgame do you see that can realistically spring forth from the Democratic Party and voting really, really hard?

I'm trying to be sober here. An end goal with no path is called a fantasy. Where is the path that isn't an Aaron Sorkin script, that takes into account the structural and moral weakness of the opposition?

To what end is the continuation of the United States of America as a whole country, and a functional (even if not perfect) democratic republic. To what end is to give us a chance to change into that something better that you spoke of. To what end is to not see ourselves engulfed in a bloody civil war that will surely be the worst the world has seen since the Russian civil war...and would probably even eclipse that. I'd rather avoid tens of millions dead for an outcome that history tells us is almost certain to be worse than where we're at right now. That's to what end.

And I already admitted, I don't know the path to avoiding that and getting to something better. That doesn't mean the path doesn't exist; that just means I don't know it. I personally can't give you an answer that will satisfy you. Luckily for you and everyone else, I am really not smart and I am not campaigning to be in any sort of position to put us on the path.
 
You only have a functional democratic republic if everyone you could potentially vote for believes that you should, and they don't and haven't for decades.

The dominant force in US politics for at least half of my life has been absolutely dedicated to the destruction of governance of the United States. What's happening now, the point where someone comes along and finally turns off the lights, isn't an out-of-nowhere shock, it's the culmination of the offensive against the concept of government started by Grover Norquist.

And the Republicans have been the dominant force whether they held power or not because the Democrats have been almost totally useless, always settling for the most minimalist version of anything they might have proposed whilst clinging dearly on to dull managerialism, keeping everything roughly the same no matter how bad it was for how many people.

You can't unfuck this by voting, because there's nobody you can vote for who will unfuck it. The Democrats don't care to unfuck things, they just want to manage the fucking and get a gold star for competence at the end of it, the Republicans want to fuck it with knives.
 

Technarch

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Well, I cannot categorically prove to you beyond a doubt that something will happen in the future. Just as you cannot prove to me it will not happen. So I guess we're just going to have different opinions on this one.

No one's asking for categorical proof, but some evidence would make it a more serious discussion. Or at least propose a plausible path from where we are today back to the rule of law, while working within a system that has been completely captured by interests who openly desire the end of democracy in America.
 

tigas

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The story is just circulating rn because some of the municipalities got early word, he wants this last time but it got talked down/cancelled. Now the DoD is talking about working it into the army 250th celebration (apparently they’re scheduling it for his birthday on June14).
I thought he was going to use the excuse of VJ Day to justify a military parade. I guess he blew just past any kind of figleafs.
 

Numfuddle

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You only have a functional democratic republic if everyone you could potentially vote for believes that you should, and they don't and haven't for decades.

The dominant force in US politics for at least half of my life has been absolutely dedicated to the destruction of governance of the United States. What's happening now, the point where someone comes along and finally turns off the lights, isn't an out-of-nowhere shock, it's the culmination of the offensive against the concept of government started by Grover Norquist.

And the Republicans have been the dominant force whether they held power or not because the Democrats have been almost totally useless, always settling for the most minimalist version of anything they might have proposed whilst clinging dearly on to dull managerialism, keeping everything roughly the same no matter how bad it was for how many people.
When two adversaries of your country, 30 percent of your own population and 600 billionaires and their media empires are actively working to tear down your democracy and have been for the last 50 years then "clinging dearly on" is sometimes the only thing that is possible.
 

Nekojin

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OR how about we finally close that human rights violating hell-hole that shamefully continues to stain the morality of the US as a nation, like we SHOULD have done more than 15 years ago when we had a chance? You know, so it's not conveniently available for the next psycopath to gain power who wants a nice offshore concentration camp to ship victims to without due process?
Not that this is the right place to discuss it, but please feel free to educate me on how you deal with someone who is a criminal from another country, who doesn't want them and refuses to accept them (and certainly no other country wants to accept them)? Particularly if they're too dangerous for GenPop prisons? Should we simply execute them? Drop them off in the middle of the ocean?

Guantanamo is a poor solution out of an ocean of worse solutions. Can it be abused? Absolutely, but so can anything else. Observe Trump's cabinet shipping people off to a prison in El Salvador, under the control of another tin-pot dictator. He doesn't even need Guantanamo in order to simply vanish people; I'm certain that there are either prisons that the general public knows nothing about, or at least secret wings of known prisons.
 

Gary Patterson

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Not that this is the right place to discuss it, but please feel free to educate me on how you deal with someone who is a criminal from another country, who doesn't want them and refuses to accept them (and certainly no other country wants to accept them)?
Other nations have worked this out. The US is neither special nor unique in this. No-one else needs extra-territorial human-rights exclusion zones to deal with criminals. Start by looking into what other nations do and see if that works for the US.

Guantanamo Bay is a stain on the US’ record, and using it for criminals that the US can’t be bothered to properly deal with only worsens that. That bill of rights? It either applies to them exactly as much as any USian, or it applies to no-one.
 

Gary Patterson

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And in case you think it’s easy preaching from my high horse or ivory tower, I’m an Australian and we wrote the damned book on pushing problems out of sight (well, we cribbed from historical notes the British left behind). We had the shameful and very recent history of offshore detention for innocent asylum seekers. It was a political wedge issue used by our more evil politicians, who cheerfully destroyed lives for a handful of votes and fawning media coverage from the cancerous Murdoch Empire and its fetid ilk. That was a stain on my nation and we haven’t washed it clean yet. It was done in our name, even if many of us fundamentally disagreed and protested against it.
 

valdis43

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To what end is the continuation of the United States of America as a whole country, and a functional (even if not perfect) democratic republic. To what end is to give us a chance to change into that something better that you spoke of. To what end is to not see ourselves engulfed in a bloody civil war that will surely be the worst the world has seen since the Russian civil war...and would probably even eclipse that. I'd rather avoid tens of millions dead for an outcome that history tells us is almost certain to be worse than where we're at right now. That's to what end.

And I already admitted, I don't know the path to avoiding that and getting to something better. That doesn't mean the path doesn't exist; that just means I don't know it. I personally can't give you an answer that will satisfy you. Luckily for you and everyone else, I am really not smart and I am not campaigning to be in any sort of position to put us on the path.
I spend time among the elders of the NAACP and Lenape elders. Their communities have survived centuries of abuse and destruction. Absolutely catastrophic destruction, 90%+ loss of life for the Lenape. And they're still around talking about it, still fighting back where they can, still rebuilding every day. Singing, dancing, drumming, telling their stories. It puts recent problems in perspective.

Yesterday a local Lenape chief gave a talk here and he was asked to speak about the future of his community. He spoke of reclaiming sovereignty for his people. And for his people to reclaim sovereignty he said they needed land for water, food and electricity. They had made plans of creating a community center with solar power, they tested the local creeks and found drinkable water among them, they have plans for a CSA to provide food for their community. It's all still a dream for them, but its in line with what I've been working toward myself.

I put solar panels and a battery on my house. I have rain barrels and filters that could be used in a pinch. I doubled my garden this year. We've taken to shopping in the local Indian and Latin American groceries and are working on signing up for a CSA. The oppressors want you to give up. But anything you do to build resilience works against them. Just surviving works against them. Build resilience, help others that share your values. Live. As a pagan writer said, approach late stage capitalism as a salvage operation. Save what you can of worth for tomorrow, but never expect to repair the world's problems today.

The tech community expects change to be fast. Sometimes it is. But social change is slow. Extremely slow. It takes decades. Ask the elders. In their lifetimes there were still Indian schools trying to stifle their culture and they were told not to act Indian, while today they go around and speak to full lecture halls about the stories of their people while galleries exhibit the traditional works of their artists.
 

fitten

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Apple is reportedly importing as much as possible before the tariffs hit. Not sure how long that will help though.

https://9to5mac.com/2025/04/07/iphone-inventory-united-states-planes/

A bunch of companies were doing this back in November/December as well*. It's unlikely any of them are able to stockpile a year's worth of materials but it may help to make the price ramp up more gradual.

*Along with the reports of companies stockpiling materials were reports from some employees who were being told that yearly bonuses, raises, etc. were being suspended/postponed in order to increase the capital reserves to stockpile as much as they could... this went over well, being the Christmas season.
 

w00key

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A bunch of companies were doing this back in November/December as well*. It's unlikely any of them are able to stockpile a year's worth of materials but it may help to make the price ramp up more gradual.

*Along with the reports of companies stockpiling materials were reports from some employees who were being told that yearly bonuses, raises, etc. were being suspended/postponed in order to increase the capital reserves to stockpile as much as they could... this went over well, being the Christmas season.
Those are amazingly prescient. Alternative is to cut cost a la DOGE and hope you kept your job.
 

Z1ggy

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A bunch of companies were doing this back in November/December as well*. It's unlikely any of them are able to stockpile a year's worth of materials but it may help to make the price ramp up more gradual.

*Along with the reports of companies stockpiling materials were reports from some employees who were being told that yearly bonuses, raises, etc. were being suspended/postponed in order to increase the capital reserves to stockpile as much as they could... this went over well, being the Christmas season.
wouldnt it make more sense for them to ramp up just as fast as they can? THey will have made more profits that way, and the ignorant will blame it on tariffs not them being greedy