According to CEO Elon Musk, Tesla's future rests on the two-seat driverless pod.
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Willing to provide some citations for those statistics or are you just pulling numbers out of your ass?I have tried. 86% of all taxi rides are by single riders. 1 or 2 passengers is over 90%. So why is a taxi that can only handle 1-2 passengers automatically bad? Please more thought into it than "Musk bad....therefore bad". You are behaving no worse than MAGAs.
He believes the German-style models of human are the pinnacle of greatness for the entire universe, and German-style humans don't have LIDAR, therefore LIDAR is obviously inherently inferior to sensing the German-human-visible light spectrum. IT'S PURE SCIENCE!Soooo… here’s the piece I don’t get. If Elon had gone all in on LIDAR in the beginning with the same approach he brought to batteries - iterative improvement, own the manufacturing process, make building the things super efficient - he’d have relatively inexpensive LIDAR that he could make a selling point in all his vehicles. That would substantially improve FSD for an investment that’s a drop in the bucket relative to Tesla’s valuation. His intransigence on LIDAR is just baffling.
Too lazy to do a search to verify?Willing to provide some citations for those statistics or are you just pulling numbers out of your ass?
Let’s take your numbers as valid though for a quick exercise. A taxi that can only handle one or two passengers is “bad” because if a group of people larger than two needs a taxi… the pool of vehicles that they could utilize is much smaller than the pool that a single person or pair of people could pull from. Since the pool is smaller, the chance that all of the taxis that can handle more than two people would be utilized at any given time would be quite large. That means people in a group of three or more would have to wait longer to get a vehicle to serve their needs.
Additionally, Tesla has intentionally engineered the vehicle to limit the number of passengers it can accommodate at any given trip… which doesn’t make sense if one is trying to maximize revenue per ride.
So 15% of all taxi rides, what, don't matter? Passengers with more than a small carry-on don't matter? Passengers with car seats don't matter? There's a fucking reason most cabs are either sedans or vans, and it's not because cab operators are cool with leaving 15% of their rides standing on the curb. Or ten, five, one percent, for that matter. There's no reason for a taxi not to cover over 99% or more of the foreseeable actual rides.I have tried. 86% of all taxi rides are by single riders. 1 or 2 passengers is over 90%. So why is a taxi that can only handle 1-2 passengers automatically bad? Please more thought into it than "Musk bad....therefore bad". You are behaving no worse than MAGAs.
Too lazy to do a search to verify?
View: https://medium.com/@muhammadaris10/nyc-taxi-trip-data-analysis-45ecfdcb6f91
First link found. Almost 94% of rides were 1-2 passengers.
And so what? If 10 people need a taxi now...what do they do? They won't fit in nearly any taxi/uber/etc. Oh no! If more than 2...I guess they could wait for a larger vehicle, specify that in the app...or...get this...take 2+ taxis! The HORROR. How will they ever survive?
Too lazy to do a search to verify?
View: https://medium.com/@muhammadaris10/nyc-taxi-trip-data-analysis-45ecfdcb6f91
First link found. Almost 94% of rides were 1-2 passengers.
And so what? If 10 people need a taxi now...what do they do? They won't fit in nearly any taxi/uber/etc. Oh no! If more than 2...I guess they could wait for a larger vehicle, specify that in the app...or...get this...take 2+ taxis! The HORROR. How will they ever survive?
Not 15%...6%. It can hold 2 people...so 1 or 2 passengers. I don't know its cargo space.So 15% of all taxi rides, what, don't matter? Passengers with more than a small carry-on don't matter? Passengers with car seats don't matter? There's a fucking reason most cabs are either sedans or vans, and it's not because cab operators are cool with leaving 15% of their rides standing on the curb. Or ten, five, one percent, for that matter. There's no reason for a taxi not to cover over 99% or more of the foreseeable actual rides.
If you aren't dickriding for Musk, it's sure not clear to me how your argument would be substantively different if you were.
And if you have a group of more than 4, most taxis/ubers/etc can't take you either.Or they could just take the ride offered by a cab company that's not aggressively indifferent to their needs. Why pay for two rides? Why wait for a larger vehicle? Why not just take the vehicle that works for all the riders, not 86%, or 94%, or 99% of them?
The mask is slipping. You're bad at this. This is a stupid fucking car to be a cab. You don't actually need to defend a lazy, stupid, halfassed position.
Except a 2-seater WOULD work 94% of the time...no need to wait. So only occasionally would you have to think about it. Why would I care that the taxi I am getting into wouldn't work in another situation.Why wait for a larger vehicle? Why not just take the vehicle that works for all the riders, not 86%, or 94%, or 99% of them?
It is you job if you are going to accuse it of being made up. Yes, NYC MIGHT not be indicative...what is your reasons to think that it isn't?It’s not my job to verify your data. And what holds true for NYC may not be indicative of trends in other markets.
And we should be decreasing the amount of vehicles on the road, not increase them. Or better yet, skip the additional taxis and replace them and existing ones with mass transit.
Yes, technically. And just adding that data, by itself, is not a 1 for 1 replacement for the way our eyes provide that data. It's provided from a different perspective than the crappy cameras, with reduced quality, and requires significantly more post-processing to be made somewhat useful. For us, it's all in one data stream, so to speak, and part of the reason we can do so much with so little. My opinion is that I would rather wait for technology to catch up so that we can do autonomous driving with solid and reliable tech than try to force through the accomplishment with shitty hardware that barely meets requirements for minimum-viability and notional reliability.So when Waymo extends its boundaries to the borders of the US...will it still be L4? And guess what...LIDAR and radar can add a bunch of those features. Also, given that eyes are like 500 megapixels...yeah. not anytime soon with cameras only.
So do you. If you want to dispel my belief, I invite you to try with a more convincing argument. Honestly, being proven wrong is the highlight of my day. No joke. Bring it on.You have this belief that you hold on to very tightly, but can't actually defend it.
So when Waymo extends its boundaries to the borders of the US...will it still be L4? And guess what...LIDAR and radar can add a bunch of those features. Also, given that eyes are like 500 megapixels...yeah. not anytime soon with cameras only.
You really don't understand technology, do you?Yes, technically. And just adding that data, by itself, is not a 1 for 1 replacement for the way our eyes provide that data. It's provided from a different perspective than the crappy cameras, with reduced quality, and requires significantly more post-processing to be made somewhat useful. For us, it's all in one data stream, so to speak, and part of the reason we can do so much with so little. My opinion is that I would rather wait for technology to catch up so that we can do autonomous driving with solid and reliable tech than try to force through the accomplishment with shitty hardware that barely meets requirements for minimum-viability and notional reliability.
Because it's still geofenced to the US. A geofence is still a geofence, even if it's within the boundaries of an entire country.You really don't understand technology, do you?
And I love that you say that if Waymo's L4 boundaries were the whole country, it would still be L4.
You said:So do you. If you want to dispel my belief, I invite you to try with a more convincing argument. Honestly, being proven wrong is the highlight of my day. No joke. Bring it on.
If he had used that iterative improvement process on the camera systems instead, we might actually have cameras that could perform well enough to do what he thinks they should be able to do instead of relying on lidar to marginally make up for the shitty cameras.
So it is only L5 if it works for the entire world, left or right lane driving, no matter the signage, language, rules of the road, etc. Gotcha.Because it's still geofenced to the US. A geofence is still a geofence, even if it's within the boundaries of an entire country.
I'm not sure that follows - taxi fares are normally per-trip, not per-passenger, so to maximise revenue per ride you'd want individual pods (each charging the trip fare). Especially if one of the metrics you plan to report to shareholders is the number of rides...[snip]
Additionally, Tesla has intentionally engineered the vehicle to limit the number of passengers it can accommodate at any given trip… which doesn’t make sense if one is trying to maximize revenue per ride.
Oh yeah, no, we're not doing this. We have no idea whether Musk is autistic to any degree at all, and if he is, that has no relevance to his business decisions, deceptive and fraudulent business practices, or radical politics.
Overpromised and underdelivered, just like everything else.
Of course others have solar tile roofs and they actually sell them. Tesla is getting out of the solar business because their offering was more expensive and less performant than others and they could only ride the Tesla brand name for so long. Now that the name (Tesla or Musk, take your pick) is a giant anchor dragging everything associated with it to the bottom of a septic tank, Tesla Solar is dead
Ain't no radar in my 2020 Forester. So bright sunlight blinds it, and it pops up a helpful message of "No can do". Same as when it gets contaminants on the top of the windscreen in front of the cameras.
(Also: Power steering??? Luxury. When I was a lad we didn't have power steering, and we liked it!)
So here’s the thing. When the cars were being developed in the mid 2010s, LIDAR hardware was $10k or more. So the decision had to be made whether to add that to all cars, and raise the base price, or make autopilot / FSD factory configuration option for more extra money. People were hesitant to buy FSD for $10k, let alone $20k if lidar was included. Then there would also be two different hardware configurations, which would have made their manufacturing year of hell even worse, probably would have ended up scrapping the lidar model altogether.
That brings us to today, where lidar is cheap enough to merge into the base model. But then you’ve got the legacy support problem. Needing to support millions of non-lidar cars and add lidar support to their FSD AI would basically be two separate efforts that would end up diverging pretty quick.
Exactly. And if the 2-seater can be made way cheaper than the larger more accomodating models, to maximize revenues and profits, you go with the small one. Especially since it would work most of the time.I'm not sure that follows - taxi fares are normally per-trip, not per-passenger, so to maximise revenue per ride you'd want individual pods (each charging the trip fare). Especially if one of the metrics you plan to report to shareholders is the number of rides...
I'm not saying it's a good business model, obviously
But why? Why isn't all IP under one roof? Trademarks, patents, copyright, etc?That has nothing to do with the trademark issue. The Register of Copyrights isn't involved in any way with trademarks. That's the PTO, which is a whole different branch.
Because patents and trademarks are different from copyrights in their fundamental nature.But why? Why isn't all IP under one roof? Trademarks, patents, copyright, etc?
And patents and trademarks are different from each other in their fundamental nature.Because patents and trademarks are different from copyrights in their fundamental nature.
Not quite.And patents and trademarks are different from each other in their fundamental nature.
They're very different rights that cover very different things and are awarded in very different ways.But why? Why isn't all IP under one roof? Trademarks, patents, copyright, etc?
I’m not being overly pedantic. If you have issues with SAE J3016, take it up with them.So it is only L5 if it works for the entire world, left or right lane driving, no matter the signage, language, rules of the road, etc. Gotcha.
I'm not going to play your game of No True Scotsman anymore.
The sustained and ODD-specific performance by an ADS of the entire DDT and DDT fallback.
The sustained and unconditional (i.e., not ODD-specific) performance by an ADS of the entire DDT and DDT fallback.
3.10 DYNAMIC DRIVING TASK (DDT)
All of the real-time operational and tactical functions required to operate a vehicle in on-road traffic, excluding the strategic functions such as trip scheduling and selection of destinations and waypoints, and including, without limitation, the following subtasks:
- Lateral vehicle motion control via steering (operational).
- Longitudinal vehicle motion control via acceleration and deceleration (operational).
- Monitoring the driving environment via object and event detection, recognition, classification, and response preparation (operational and tactical).
- Object and event response execution (operational and tactical).
- Maneuver planning (tactical).
- Enhancing conspicuity via lighting, sounding the horn, signaling, gesturing, etc. (tactical).
6. SIGNIFICANCE OF OPERATIONAL DESIGN DOMAIN (ODD)
Conceptually, the role of a driving automation system vis-à-vis a user in performance of part or all of the DDT is orthogonal to the specific conditions under which it performs that role. For example, a specific implementation of adaptive cruise control may be intended to operate only at high speeds, only at low speeds, or at all speeds. For simplicity, however, this taxonomy collapses these two axes into a single set of levels of driving automation. Levels 1 through 4 expressly contemplate ODD limitations. In contrast, Level 5 (like Level 0) does not have ODD limitations [emphasis added] (subject to the discussion in 8.8).
Accordingly, accurately describing a feature (other than at Levels 0 and 5) requires identifying both its level of driving automation and its operational design domain (ODD). As provided in the definitions above, this combination of level of driving automation and ODD is called a usage specification, and a given feature satisfies a given usage specification.
Because of the wide range of possible ODDs, a wide range of possible features may exist at each level (e.g., Level 4 includes parking, high-speed, low-speed, geo-fenced, etc.). For this reason, this taxonomy provides less detail about the ODD attributes that may define a given feature than about the respective roles of a driving automation system and its user. ODD is especially important to understanding why a given ADS is not Level 5 merely because it operates an ADS-dedicated vehicle. Unlike a Level 5 ADS, a Level 3 or 4 ADS has a limited ODD. Geographic, speed, environmental or other ODD restrictions on an ADS-DV may reflect technological limitations of its ADS, or they may reflect vehicle design limitations. [emphasis added]
Level 1 to Level 4 features are subject to limited ODDs. These limitations generally reflect the technological capability of the driving automation system. For example, Level 4 ADS-DVs that operate in enclosed courses have existed for many decades as people movers and airport shuttles. The ODD for such vehicles is very simple, well-controlled, and physically enclosed (vehicle operates on a fixed course; physical barriers prevent encroachment; protected from external events, weather, etc.). This highly structured and simple ODD makes it technologically less challenging to achieve Level 4 driving automation. However, a Level 3 ADS feature that operates a vehicle on open roads in mixed traffic, and does so in environments that include inclement weather, faces a significantly higher technological bar in terms of ADS capability by virtue of the more complex and unstructured ODD (see Figure 11).
Note also that the ODD for a given driving automation system feature potentially encompasses a broad set of parameters that define the limits of that feature’s functional capability to operate in design-specified on-road environments. It includes variables as widely ranging as specific road types, weather conditions, lighting conditions, geographical restrictions, and the presence or absence of certain road features, such as lane markings, road side traffic barriers, median strips, etc. As such, a given driving automation system feature has only one ODD, but that ODD may be quite varied and multi-faceted. Even though the ODD is composed of multiple variables, it would be incorrect to say that a driving automation feature has multiple ODDs. A feature will operate as designed (see 3.26) only when all the ODD-defining variables satisfy design criteria.
So you are taking that and saying that unless the system works for the entire world, it isn't L5. That isn't what they are saying.I’m not being overly pedantic. If you have issues with SAE J3016, take it up with them.
They’ve defined L4 and L5 as such:
L4:
L5:
And to explain what the acronyms mean in those definitions:
Yes… that’s exactly what they’re saying. Geofencing is considered a “operational design domain”. They don’t define when a geofence stops being a geofence and is just a jurisdictional limiter.So you are taking that and saying that unless the system works for the entire world, it isn't L5. That isn't what they are saying.
No, that is not what they are saying, that is how you are interpreting it. I'm not surprised by your take though.Yes… that’s exactly what they’re saying. Geofencing is considered a “operational design domain”. They don’t define when a geofence stops being a geofence and is just a jurisdictional limiter.
So why don’t you explain where I’m wrong instead of just insisting that I am? Use SAE J3016 as a common frame of reference.No, that is not what they are saying, that is how you are interpreting it. I'm not surprised by your take though.
Because if it was "geo-fenced" to USA or even North America...how would that not be L5?So why don’t you explain where I’m wrong instead of just insisting that I am? Use SAE J3016 as a common frame of reference.
Because a geo-fence is a restriction on how and where the ADS will work. The definition of L5 says literally "unconditional" performance. Did you not read the parts of SAE that I bolded?Because if it was "geo-fenced" to USA or even North America...how would that not be L5?
Unlike a Level 5 ADS, a Level 3 or 4 ADS has a limited ODD. Geographic, speed, environmental or other ODD restrictions on an ADS-DV may reflect technological limitations of its ADS, or they may reflect vehicle design limitations.
Recall that the very first Tesla robot demo that Musk gave obviously had a person in a white suit dancing. Very cringeworthy, and it demonstrated the level of sophistication of the audience he was aiming at.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsNc4nEX3c4
i'd say they're getting there. wouldn't you agree?https://youtube.com/shorts/rcmS4NOrG4k?si=50sMZbug485PYmxf
i'd say they're getting there. wouldn't you agree?
View: https://youtube.com/shorts/rcmS4NOrG4k?si=50sMZbug485PYmxf
So you really believe if doesn't work on the entire globe, it is only L4. Awesome.Because a geo-fence is a restriction on how and where the ADS will work. The definition of L5 says literally "unconditional" performance. Did you not read the parts of SAE that I bolded?
Being geo-fenced to the US or NA is a "geographic restriction".
It would also be more impressive if it were being tele-operated.It would be more impressive it was a single shot showing all the moves, rather than a series of short clips edited together.
Also, if the robot moved more than a foot from its starting position (which appears to always be under an overhead crane gantry*)
Boston Dynamics' Dancing Atlas video was a single continuous take with the robots moving freely around the space, which is much more challenging.
*I'm not saying that they've used VFX to paint out a cable support; more likely they've developed the moves using a crane to prevent damage if it loses balance and now they're running the saved sequence without the support.