War with...Iran?

[DarthSlack]

I didn’t miss the point, and I’m not arguing that Israel has no responsibility. Claiming “Israel hasn’t hit any” is a linguistic deflection, but so is claiming that’s a distinction without a difference. There is a meaningful difference between what Israel does of its own accord and what the US
does and enables.

That a desalination plant was bombed is bad and wrong. But as an American living in America, it’s kind of important context to me that it was the US who did the bombing. I don’t give a fuck who told them to, it shouldn’t’ve happened.

I agree, it shouldn't have happened. I guess my view is that when you've got leadership as feebleminded as Trump and Hegseth, I don't see as much distinction as you do. Yes, the US should know better. But when the President is routinely distracted by shiny baubles, I guess I think atrocities like this were pretty much inevitable. These fucks are trying to start Armageddon after all, moral behavior isn't exactly high on their list of things to worry about.

 

[Paengwyn]

Here's Bellincat's piece on the missile strike on the school:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/202...-missile-strike-next-to-girls-school-in-iran/

 

[AbidingArs]

Here's Bellincat's piece on the missile strike on the school:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/202...-missile-strike-next-to-girls-school-in-iran/

If I'm reading it right, it sounds like Bellingcat does not think the missile shown hit the school and that the school had already been struck and that strike was not shown in the video: "The footage released by Mehr News, and geolocated by Bellingcat, also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school". I'm really not seeing anything in Bellingcat's article to corroborate the second sentence in the third post from Trevor Ball (posted here). In the article, the same photo comparing the missile to a tomahawk is captioned "Left: Image showing a Tomahawk missile from the airstrike in Minab. Right: A Tomahawk missile flying over Tehran earlier in the conflict." while his post has states "This image shows a comparison between the Tomahawk missile that hit the school and Tomahawk missiles flying over Tehran earlier in the conflict". Those are very different statements and I'm not seeing the evidence on their website. Even the first sentence of that post talks about the missile "hitting a building near the school" so I think he just misworded the second sentence about it hitting the school. Am I missing something?

 

[Alexander]

If I'm reading it right, it sounds like Bellingcat does not think the missile shown hit the school and that the school had already been struck and that strike was not shown in the video: "The footage released by Mehr News, and geolocated by Bellingcat, also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school". I'm really not seeing anything in Bellingcat's article to corroborate the second sentence in the third post from Trevor Ball (posted here). In the article, the same photo comparing the missile to a tomahawk is captioned "Left: Image showing a Tomahawk missile from the airstrike in Minab. Right: A Tomahawk missile flying over Tehran earlier in the conflict." while his post has states "This image shows a comparison between the Tomahawk missile that hit the school and Tomahawk missiles flying over Tehran earlier in the conflict". Those are very different statements and I'm not seeing the evidence on their website. Even the first sentence of that post talks about the missile "hitting a building near the school" so I think he just misworded the second sentence about it hitting the school. Am I missing something?

The picture is taken shortly after the girls' school has been hit, showing an American Tomahawk hitting a different nearby target.

The logic is that only the same actor (the US in this case) is likely to be striking different targets that are very close together in a short timespan.

 

[Crolis]

So are we going to hunt Mojtaba Khamenei now? Is that our thing? Is that what we do now?

 

[wco81]

And oil has hit $100.

Our tax dollars are not enough to arm and enrich Israel, we get to pay more at the pump and more for other goods transported by gas.

We should feel privileged because our financial sacrifice is making the Israelis feel safer -- or at least quenching their blood lust -- and keeping Netanyahu out of prison.

 

[cfenton]

BBC Verify endorsed the authenticity and geolocation of the videos but doesn't go as far as endorsing Bellingcat's framing or analysis, e.g. Bellingcat identifies the missile as an American Tomahawk but BBC doesn't say anything one way or another about that. (contra the claim in the bluesky link)

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yqqyly9n0o

This is a link to BBC Verify's existing page on the incident, but it has not been updated with the latest info. However, what that tweet from the Tennessee Holler (a generally quite reliable source IME) is that one of the BBC Verify's journalists (Sardarizadeh) retweeted (a.k.a. RT), Bellingcat's post (Bellingcat being a reliable cadre of international, independent journalists and researchers).

So there's a little game of sharing out what someone else said, but this is an ongoing research project/investigation and everyone involved in this chain is generally quite reliable. I'd expect to see something more definitive, insofar as a website vs a series of social media posts is that, in a short bit pending further research/verification.

EDIT: ninja'd by @Alexander

Thanks for the explanation. Social media news is a mess and I've trained my brain to dismiss anything that isn't from an obviously good source. BBC, CBC, NYT, etc., sure. The Tennessee Holler, Bellingcat, and @easybakeovensz are not names I'm familiar with, so my instinct is to assume their information is somewhere in the range from heavily biased to false and best ignored until corroborated by a source I trust.

 

[Paengwyn]

The picture is taken shortly after the girls' school has been hit, showing an American Tomahawk hitting a different nearby target.

The logic is that only the same actor (the US in this case) is likely to be striking different targets that are very close together in a short timespan.

That and the fact neither that Israel nor Iran are known to be operating Tomahawks. It seems reasonable that the US would fire multiple missiles in quick succession considering the objective (using the term loosely here) seems to be to cripple the IRCG. Firing one or two missiles, waiting a bit to see what was hit, and then launching some more would give uninjured survivors of the initial strike an opportunity to escape with materiel etc. that could otherwise have been destroyed.

 

[rek]

And oil has hit $100.

And already flirting with $110 barely half an hour into trading (I had no idea oil trading started on Sunday night instead of Monday morning, but there you go)

Best low latency oil price data I've found is here, https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

To butcher a butcher's quote, the school and desalination plants are tragedies, but the oil price (and Strait of Hormuz/general oil mobility situation) is the statistic that will ultimately move the war one way or another.

 

[schnackenpfefferhausen]

So are we going to hunt Mojtaba Khamenei now? Is that our thing? Is that what we do now?

Meet the new Ayatollah. Same as the old Ayatollah.

 

[karolus]

This was a war of choice. It’s a given that there’s plenty of self-dealing going on in Washington—some of it already documented. It’s possible that some well-connected people were already poised to play the commodity markets with inside information.

Anyone following current events shouldn’t be surprised by recent developments. Air power was being built up in the weeks leading up to the conflict. We’re not dealing with rational actors—and I’m not referring to Tehran here.

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

What is even the administration’s stated end here?

I saw “unconditional surrender”, which I literally cannot even imagine how that’s supposed to work or what that means in these circumstances. Even if by some mechanism the Iranian government surrenders… then what? Who’s going to occupy Iran and manage whatever reconstruction and daily governance will be?

It seems like there are only two likely paths here and they’re both decade-plus long versions of similar quagmires.

This whole thing is so profoundly stupid, that I’m increasingly convinced Trump isn’t a Russian agent, and maybe he’s actually a Chinese agent. Because the U.S. just blundered its way into permanently wildly f*cking up the global oil marketplace, which would have been at least strategically sensible if the U.S. had bothered to do some “Green New Deal” shaped thing, or at least minimally hadn’t just decimated nearly every investment and incentive in tech & production to improve oil independence.

Instead it’s China which has been making the major investments and pursued a national strategy for what’s next, so it’s strategically poised to mid & long term capitalize the most on this lunacy.

 

[Deleted member 28951]

Most of those you seem to be referencing is diaspora Iranians that live abroad? Eg, not the ones actually being bombed. Not really seeing any indication of anti-regime mobilization in-country. The "neither happy nor sad now - just tired" comment from someone actually in Iran seems pretty consistent with what I was saying.

The first few days of the war there were reports of anti-regime demonstrations (which had disappeared after the previous crackdowns) in over 100 Iranian cities, including several thousand people in Tehran itself (which has 100K IRGC and Basij personnel).
Since the Internet blackout is still in effect and there are very few foreign journalists in Iran, it's very difficult to tell how significant the demonstrations are and whether they're intensifying.

 

[Deleted member 28951]

I didn’t miss the point, and I’m not arguing that Israel has no responsibility. Claiming “Israel hasn’t hit any” is a linguistic deflection, but so is claiming that’s a distinction without a difference. There is a meaningful difference between what Israel does of its own accord and what the US
does and enables.

That a desalination plant was bombed is bad and wrong. But as an American living in America, it’s kind of important context to me that it was the US who did the bombing. I don’t give a fuck who told them to, it shouldn’t’ve happened.

I was responding very simply to a factual lie. Period.
Not discussing moral issues.

 

[Sajuuk]

So are we going to hunt Mojtaba Khamenei now? Is that our thing? Is that what we do now?

Israel says next leader of Iran also a ‘target for elimination’

Yup.

 

[concernUrsus]

What is even the administration’s stated end here?

I saw “unconditional surrender”, which I literally cannot even imagine how that’s supposed to work or what that means in these circumstances. Even if by some mechanism the Iranian government surrenders… then what? Who’s going to occupy Iran and manage whatever reconstruction and daily governance will be?

It seems like there are only two likely paths here and they’re both decade-plus long versions of similar quagmires.

This whole thing is so profoundly stupid, that I’m increasingly convinced Trump isn’t a Russian agent, and maybe he’s actually a Chinese agent. Because the U.S. just blundered its way into permanently wildly f*cking up the global oil marketplace, which would have been at least strategically sensible if the U.S. had bothered to do some “Green New Deal” shaped thing, or at least minimally hadn’t just decimated nearly every investment and incentive in tech & production to improve oil independence.

Instead it’s China which has been making the major investments and pursued a national strategy for what’s next, so it’s strategically poised to mid & long term capitalize the most on this lunacy.

I am fair sure Trump want the same deal he has with Venezuela. My understanding is some or all oil is kind of going through Trump now? So, he is expecting something similar from Iran.

PS: so far, it has been a "success". None wants to challenge USA at this point. While countries may back away from cooperating with USA, the current USA military is sufficient to bully everyone. China has invested heavily in Venezuela, so far it has been kept relatively quiet. We may see the same script play out in Iran.

 

[cakqe]

Even if by some mechanism the Iranian government surrenders… then what? Who’s going to occupy Iran and manage whatever reconstruction and daily governance will be?

It's more or less working in Syria. And Iran is in a much better starting position.

India, Pakistan, and North Korea were all mentioned. They all have nukes already right now.

Near-nuke and have-nukes are different classes that need to be handled differently.

But there are a lot of them, they're more difficult to track, and since unlike the ballistic missiles they can change course significantly, you don't know what they're aiming for until they very nearly hit.

While UAVs can cause damage and are a problem, they're still not as serious a threat as nukes and large missiles. Maybe large swarms of UAVs sent together at the very same target (which I don't think has happened yet). But even then, I assume, it's easier and cheaper to protect against.

The Hamas attack reduced Likud's polling to 19 seats. It's varied up & down since, but polling numbers by reputable pollers (*) have never gone above 27

There's the following, 4 days ago:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveb...f-coalition-partners-with-no-impact-on-blocs/

Likud rises from 27 seats last week to a projected 31 seats according to a poll conducted yesterday by The Times of Israel’s sister site Zman Yisrael, in the first poll conducted since the start of the current conflict with Iran.

 

[karolus]

What is even the administration’s stated end here?

I saw “unconditional surrender”, which I literally cannot even imagine how that’s supposed to work or what that means in these circumstances. Even if by some mechanism the Iranian government surrenders… then what? Who’s going to occupy Iran and manage whatever reconstruction and daily governance will be?

It seems like there are only two likely paths here and they’re both decade-plus long versions of similar quagmires.

This whole thing is so profoundly stupid, that I’m increasingly convinced Trump isn’t a Russian agent, and maybe he’s actually a Chinese agent. Because the U.S. just blundered its way into permanently wildly f*cking up the global oil marketplace, which would have been at least strategically sensible if the U.S. had bothered to do some “Green New Deal” shaped thing, or at least minimally hadn’t just decimated nearly every investment and incentive in tech & production to improve oil independence.

Instead it’s China which has been making the major investments and pursued a national strategy for what’s next, so it’s strategically poised to mid & long term capitalize the most on this lunacy.

I’ve been drawing parallels between the current US and the Byzantine Empire and its numerous palace intrigues and scandals during the waning days. There wasn’t much to take down by the time the Turks moved in—the enterprise had been hollowed out pretty well from the inside.

It’s a given that Trump has a definite fondness and admiration for Putin. Even if there’s no definite proof of collusion, they share similar traits—egotistical autocrats who have no issue sacrificing their countries for their vanity.

Putin has had much more time to consolidate his power and stifle dissent. Trump, not so much. Which indicates that the rot was already there for someone like him to walk in and exploit.

All China has to do to come out on top is not to make any big mistakes, and use the opportunity to strengthen international relations and cooperation that the US is walking away from.

If they were a stock trader and not a nation, all they would have to do is sit in cash on the sidelines until the bear market reverses—then ride it up.

 

[concernUrsus]

I’ve been drawing parallels between the current US and the Byzantine Empire and its numerous palace intrigues and scandals during the waning days. There wasn’t much to take down by the time the Turks moved in—the enterprise had been hollowed out pretty well from the inside.

It’s a given that Trump has a definite fondness and admiration for Putin. Even if there’s no definite proof of collusion, they share similar traits—egotistical autocrats who have no issue sacrificing their countries for their vanity.

Putin has had much more time to consolidate his power and stifle dissent. Trump, not so much. Which indicates that the rot was already there for someone like him to walk in and exploit.

All China has to do to come out on top is not to make any big mistakes, and use the opportunity to strengthen international relations and cooperation that the US is walking away from.

If they were a stock trader and not a nation, all they would have to do is sit in cash on the sidelines until the bear market reverses—then ride it up.

China is a net import country. I am not 100% it can just wait it out. Oil is needed for its industry.

 

[Alexander]

Israel says next leader of Iran also a ‘target for elimination’

Yup.

None of these articles mention that Mojtaba Khamenei lost his father, mother, wife, and at least one of his three sons, possibly more, during the opening decapitation strike, and was himself injured by the missile sent to assassinate him.

That is who will have his finger on the button when Iran builds a nuke, thanks to Trump and Netanyahu.

 

[concernUrsus]

None of these articles mention that Mojtaba Khamenei lost his father, mother, wife, and son, during the opening decapitation strike, and was himself injured by the missile sent to assassinate him.

That is who will have his finger on the button when Iran builds a nuke, thanks to Trump and Netanyahu.

Honestly, the world may be safer if both Israel and Iran has nuke pointing at each other...

 

[ramases]

Israel says next leader of Iran also a ‘target for elimination’

Yup.

Well, to be fair he is the Iranian Commander-in-Chief and hence a valid military target. The reason why heads of state that are also CiC often aren't targeted in wars isn't due to the laws of war, but due to two Realpolitik concerns:

1) Not wanting to give the other side ideas
2) Any war ends at one point, usually through negotiation. Which tends to work better if you don't kill the guy that was supposed to do the negotiating bit for the opposing side.

 

[karolus]

China is a net import country. I am not 100% it can just wait it out. Oil is needed for its industry.

The Gulf States aren’t the only source. What if China goes the India route and starts dealing more with Russia again for fuel?

A knock-on effect will be an increase in costs for goods exported from China due to this disruption, which will put further pressure on the global economy.

If Trump causes further roil in the energy markets, what if the workarounds result in fall of the petrodollar, further weakening Washington’s soft power?

 

[Shavano]

The Gulf States aren’t the only source. What if China goes the India route and starts dealing more with Russia again for fuel?

A knock-on effect will be an increase in costs for goods exported from China due to this disruption, which will put further pressure on the global economy.

If Trump causes further roil in the energy markets, what if the workarounds result in fall of the petrodollar, further weakening Washington’s soft power?

We're finding out now, aren't we? Crude oils prices have now spiked to $106/Bbl.

I think the question becomes what are other countries going to do about the situation?

 

[concernUrsus]

The Gulf States aren’t the only source. What if China goes the India route and starts dealing more with Russia again for fuel?

A knock-on effect will be an increase in costs for goods exported from China due to this disruption, which will put further pressure on the global economy.

If Trump causes further roil in the energy markets, what if the workarounds result in fall of the petrodollar, further weakening Washington’s soft power?

I have to say I am concern. Venezuela oil is sort of off the table for China now. Not to mention Middle-East is a major trade route. Everything goes through there.

Though I think it is also very possible Europe and USA will feel the pain more and readjust sooner than China needs to. We are playing a very danger game of chicken for almost no reason.

 

[Shavano]

I have to say I am concern. Venezuela oil is sort of off the table for China now. Not to mention Middle-East is a major trade route. Everything goes through there.

Though I think it is also very possible Europe and USA will feel the pain more and readjust sooner than China needs to. We are playing a very danger game of chicken for almost no reason.

The reason is Trump's ego.

 

[concernUrsus]

The reason is Trump's ego.

I can sort of seeing it from Israeli point of view. A weaken enemy should be better for them. However, Iran is also kind of controlling the chaos of the "hate". A fragmented Iran can be more danger to everyone, including Israel. May be Israel is right that a weaken enemy is better for them. This remain to be see.

 

[karolus]

We're finding out now, aren't we? Crude oils prices have now spiked to $106/Bbl.

I think the question becomes what are other countries going to do about the situation?

It’s probably certain that Trump has no game plan. They were probably banking on a quick diversion to domestic scandals.

What’s playing out is a geopolitical crisis. If no one else folds, it could be a major setback for Trump’s ambitions.

 

[Macam]

We're finding out now, aren't we? Crude oils prices have now spiked to $106/Bbl.

I think the question becomes what are other countries going to do about the situation?

(Oil prices are just under $110 at the moment; the all time high was $147 in 2008)

Great time to kill the domestic EV market.



Link

Dow futures tumble 800 points as U.S. oil tops $100 a barrel

Stock futures were plunging to start the week's trading as U.S. oil prices topped $100 a barrel amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is coming off its biggest weekly slide in nearly a year. Futures tied to the Dow fell 830 points or 1.8%. S&P 500 futures lost 1.6%, while Nasdaq 100 futures shed 1.7%.

Oil futures jumped on Sunday night after major Middle East producers slashed their output due to the continued closure of the key Strait of Hormuz passageway. Kuwait announced cuts but did not say by how much, while Iraq has reportedly seen its production fall 70%.

Meanwhile, Iran has officially confirmed Khamenei's successor as Khamenei Sr.'s replacement.

Hand a Republican administration a strong economy and reward yourselves with an economic crisis and at least one new war in the Middle East.

 

[Thank You and Best of Luck!]

If Trump causes further roil in the energy markets, what if the workarounds result in fall of the petrodollar, further weakening Washington’s soft power?

I mean, it’s not just the energy markets. Nasdaq, Dow, S&P futures down again going into the week with not even a vague sign of rebound or stabilizing coming.

Especially not when each passing day is some new pile of horrible. At this point, even if they could secure the strait immediately AND all strikes stopped AND the Iranians just pretended like the whole thing never happened… the already destroyed petrochemical infrastructure in the region will keep things proper f*cked for a very long while.

 

[N4M8-]

Great time to kill the domestic EV market.

Is it time to bring out, "Thanks Trump"* for any and all things bad?



*Or maybe, "Thanks Trump voters"?

 

[karolus]

I mean, it’s not just the energy markets. Nasdaq, Dow, S&P futures down again going into the week with not even a vague sign of rebound or stabilizing coming.

Especially not when each passing day is some new pile of horrible. At this point, even if they could secure the strait immediately AND all strikes stopped AND the Iranians just pretended like the whole thing never happened… the already destroyed petrochemical infrastructure in the region will keep things proper f*cked for a very long while.

Trump may have unwittingly precipitated the inevitable. The financial markets have been quite choppy for the last few months—a clear indicator of uncertainty. His actions in Iran may be the straw on the camel’s back to send the market downward. This most likely won’t be a momentary blip.

 

[Megalodon]

Especially not when each passing day is some new pile of horrible. At this point, even if they could secure the strait immediately AND all strikes stopped AND the Iranians just pretended like the whole thing never happened… the already destroyed petrochemical infrastructure in the region will keep things proper f*cked for a very long while.

And a lot of the key infrastructure, particularly LNG terminals, is very capital intensive and very long lead time.

 

[karolus]

Is it time to bring out, "Thanks Trump"* for any and all things bad?



*Or maybe, "Thanks Trump voters"?

Nah. That will be once Social Security is gutted, many have lost their jobs, and faced steep declines in their 401ks.

 

[Crolis]

Well, to be fair he is the Iranian Commander-in-Chief and hence a valid military target. The reason why heads of state that are also CiC often aren't targeted in wars isn't due to the laws of war, but due to two Realpolitik concerns:

1) Not wanting to give the other side ideas
2) Any war ends at one point, usually through negotiation. Which tends to work better if you don't kill the guy that was supposed to do the negotiating bit for the opposing side.

I mean maybe I've got TDS but this shit is fucked up. Feel like we have just given up on any "rules" of war and are in the fuck it why not stage of conflict. Sure, might makes right to these ghouls, and we are mighty but even if you are all "warrior ethos" this seems like a bad precedent. Just kill our way to something, surely not long term victory.

 

[Crolis]

I think this war is out of character for even Trump (bar is so low) which makes me think his old age and dementia is at an advanced stage.

 

[Gary Patterson]

I’m increasingly convinced Trump isn’t a Russian agent, and maybe he’s actually a Chinese agent.

A data point for you - just before his first term, the trans-pacific partnership was signed, a trade alliance designed to limit China’s growing economic might through a wide, zero-tariff zone around the Pacific. Trump took the US out of it, greatly weakening the TPP and doing nothing to slow China down.

He’s likely not an agent of China, but he does a lot to support their economic interests by pulling the US back from its self-chosen leadership position in so many directions. China need do little else than wait and swoop in to replace the US once Trump screws up yet again.

 

[wco81]

Well, to be fair he is the Iranian Commander-in-Chief and hence a valid military target. The reason why heads of state that are also CiC often aren't targeted in wars isn't due to the laws of war, but due to two Realpolitik concerns:

1) Not wanting to give the other side ideas
2) Any war ends at one point, usually through negotiation. Which tends to work better if you don't kill the guy that was supposed to do the negotiating bit for the opposing side.

There used to be a policy about not assassinating foreign leaders.

Israel started taking down Palestinian leaders, with helicopters bombing homes.

Now they've graduated to using the most advanced jets and missiles to target leaders a 1000 miles away.

 

[cfenton]

None of these articles mention that Mojtaba Khamenei lost his father, mother, wife, and at least one of his three sons, possibly more, during the opening decapitation strike, and was himself injured by the missile sent to assassinate him.

That is who will have his finger on the button when Iran builds a nuke, thanks to Trump and Netanyahu.

I doubt he will last long enough for that. Even Trump isn't dumb enough to accept the former leader's son as a replacement.

 

[N4M8-]

This whole thing is so profoundly stupid, that I’m increasingly convinced Trump isn’t a Russian agent, and maybe he’s actually a Chinese agent. Because the U.S. just blundered its way into permanently wildly f*cking up the global oil marketplace, which would have been at least strategically sensible if the U.S. had bothered to do some “Green New Deal” shaped thing, or at least minimally hadn’t just decimated nearly every investment and incentive in tech & production to improve oil independence

As China is the world's largest energy importer, either Trump is a horrible agent or China has become incredibly incompetent at taking care of their needs.