War with...Iran?

goates

Ars Praefectus
3,261
Subscriptor++
Iranian oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Maybe Trump should make an offer to buy it seeing as the US reserves are so low?

Iranian crude oil has continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz at a near-normal pace even as Tehran-linked attacks on ships in the narrow waterway have decimated exports from other Gulf countries, a Reuters ‌review of tanker tracking data showed.

Iran has exported about 13.7 million barrels of crude oil since Israel and the U.S. launched attacks on the country on February 28, according to analysis from TankerTrackers.com, a maritime intelligence company that specializes in tracking the so-called shadow fleet, a network of vessels used to transport oil and gas from countries under Western sanctions.

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...-even-gulf-neighbors-exports-shut-2026-03-11/
 
One almost admires the dedication the Iranian government is showing to being the consummate "bad guy" by chucking missiles at basically everyone around them and blowing up tankers registered in countries that have done nothing to them. It would be so easy to be sympathetic in the eyes of the world right now, especially when you're being compared to Trump and co.

But by god, if they're going out, they're going to drag the rest of the world down with them!

(I could speculate that Trump's reasoning is much the same with regard to the Epstein files, but I think the Iranian government had a shorter path to sympathy on the world stage, and that's saying something.)
 
Last edited:
  • Wow
Reactions: Bardon

timby

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,197
Subscriptor

I love how the White House plays it up like a big deal, and press outlets are happy to carry their water for them. Alongside this I saw a news item on NBC hollering that the IEA countries were going to release another 400 million barrels.

The world goes through about 100 million barrels of oil per day, to put everything in perspective. (The United States alone consumes about 20 million barrels per day, give or take a few hundred thousand.) So these releases aren't going to make a meaningful dent in the utterly turbofucked market.
 

Megalodon

Ars Legatus Legionis
36,639
Subscriptor
I love how the White House plays it up like a big deal, and press outlets are happy to carry their water for them. Alongside this I saw a news item on NBC hollering that the IEA countries were going to release another 400 million barrels.

The world goes through about 100 million barrels of oil per day, to put everything in perspective. (The United States alone consumes about 20 million barrels per day, give or take a few hundred thousand.) So these releases aren't going to make a meaningful dent in the utterly turbofucked market.

And Hormuz carries 20 million bbl/day so the amount of time they can make good the loss is pretty damn limited.
 
One almost admires the dedication the Iranian government is showing to being the consummate "bad guy" by chucking missiles at basically everyone around them and blowing up tankers registered in countries that have done nothing to them. It would be so easy to be sympathetic in the eyes of the world right now, especially when you're being compared to Trump and co.

But by god, if they're going out, they're going to drag the rest of the world down with them!

Once an enemy has declared his intent to kill you and keep doing so no matter what you do, which is the position the Iranian regime has been in since day one, why hold back?

They have nothing to lose any more by hitting everyone who hosts their enemy, quite a lot of the US bases they’re hitting exist mostly to contain Iran and are in the territory of regional opponents whose primary motivation to invite the US in is to be protected from Iran.

This is the action of a force which perceives itself as having nothing else to lose.
 

alterSchwede

Ars Scholae Palatinae
779
One almost admires the dedication the Iranian government is showing to being the consummate "bad guy" by chucking missiles at basically everyone around them and blowing up tankers registered in countries that have done nothing to them. It would be so easy to be sympathetic in the eyes of the world right now, especially when you're being compared to Trump and co.

But by god, if they're going out, they're going to drag the rest of the world down with them!

(I could speculate that Trump's reasoning is much the same with regard to the Epstein files, but I think the Iranian government had a shorter path to sympathy on the world stage, and that's saying something.)
Deterrence follow-through.
The deterrence threat of Iran was always "If you attack us we will close the strait of Hormuz and set the region on fire", wasn't it?
They were attacked and have now declared the strait closed and are actively setting the region on fire.

surprised_pikachu.jpg
 

Paengwyn

Smack-Fu Master, in training
58
Link

…like whatever the hell we’re doing here.

(seeing some unconfirmed chatter about the potential use of a MOAB, something we last used in Afghanistan for no reason under Trump’s first term, but…not confirmed, pure speculation).

Why not just drop a massive bomb on one of the holiest cities in Shi'a Islam, and the holiest city in Iran, that certainly won't radicalise anyone...

I guess (hope?) this was aimed at Fordow and not within the city limits, but it's hard to know when the Secretary of Defence wrote a book calling for a 360-degree holy war.
 

dio82

Ars Legatus Legionis
10,307
Subscriptor

Attachments

  • Screenshot 2026-03-12 092015.png
    Screenshot 2026-03-12 092015.png
    251.9 KB · Views: 34

Vlip

Ars Legatus Legionis
20,046
Subscriptor
One almost admires the dedication the Iranian government is showing to being the consummate "bad guy" by chucking missiles at basically everyone around them and blowing up tankers registered in countries that have done nothing to them. It would be so easy to be sympathetic in the eyes of the world right now, especially when you're being compared to Trump and co.

But by god, if they're going out, they're going to drag the rest of the world down with them!

(I could speculate that Trump's reasoning is much the same with regard to the Epstein files, but I think the Iranian government had a shorter path to sympathy on the world stage, and that's saying something.)

You are not seeing this through the right frame.

Iran had invested a shit ton of money to prevent what happened these weeks from happening to the point of utter disregarding their local needs.
The deterhence was meant to be provided by three axis:
  1. A network of proxies (Hamas and Hezbollah) that could join the fight and inflict damage to Israel if said Israel were to attack Iran
  2. A strategic missile/drone branch meant to be able to overwehlm defences and inflict damage to Israel and american bases in case of an attack
  3. The ability to close the straight of Hormuz

Axis 1 got thoroughly dismantled last year and proved to be utterly worthless and a terrible waste of money.
Axis 2 was shown to be a paper tiger during the previous engagement. The defences are so overwhelming and Iranian missiles have such shit precision that the only "effect" those missiles had was provide the world with a lot of pretty footage of missiles going up and being intercepted on the way down. The only real "damage" that insanely expensive program had on the enemy is force it to burn quite a lot of money on interceptors but comparatively it's an expense Israel and the US can more afford than Iran could its ballistic missile program. The drones are the only ones who are really punching above their financial weight but even then the drone program failed to dether the many current and past attacks and most definitely won't dether futur ones.

This leaves us with Axis 3 and the straight of Hormuz. Iran's winning theory of this game is to make this attack so horrendouly expensive on their enemies that they won't dare do that shit again. So even if the US declares victory and leaves now, Iran has a vested interest in keeping the straight close for much longer.

To me this is compounded by the fact that during all previous attacks, Iran chose to deescalate as quickly as it could and all they got out of it is more attacks. So in the future, Iran is now incentivised to have a hair trigger on the straight of hormuz and inflict massive pain at the slightest provocation to reestablish deterhence and make sure that it is plainly obvious to even the most idiotic collection of morons in Washington that attacking Iran is a garanteed recipee to meltdown the entire planet's economy.

This is all terrible news for the entire planet because this means that if Iran and Israel/the US cannot find a path for peace together in the future, the next time Israel/the US feel like they need to intervene in Iran, nothing short of a full blown invasion of the Iranian seabord would be a starting option.
 

Vlip

Ars Legatus Legionis
20,046
Subscriptor
P.S: Tankers registered in other countries.

None of those countries give a shit what happens to those tankers. They aren't "their" tankers and they aren't underway specifically for "their" needs. Those countries only operate a tax/regulation avoidance scheme by registering ships to their countries so that those companies don't have to pay taxes/conform to environnemental/labour regulation from the first world countries that those ships are actually underway for.
It's only a source of income for them and seeing a tanker registered to their country burning in the straight of Hormuz matters as much to them as us seeing a car with our local plates burn in a foreign country.
 

bjn

Ars Praefectus
5,075
Subscriptor++
P.S: Tankers registered in other countries.

None of those countries give a shit what happens to those tankers. They aren't "their" tankers and they aren't underway specifically for "their" needs. Those countries only operate a tax/regulation avoidance scheme by registering ships to their countries so that those companies don't have to pay taxes/conform to environnemental/labour regulation from the first world countries that those ships are actually underway for.
It's only a source of income for them and seeing a tanker registered to their country burning in the straight of Hormuz matters as much to them as us seeing a car with our local plates burn in a foreign country.

Regardless of where it’s registered, the owners of a tanker definitely do care, so they won’t be keen on getting their asset set on fire. The crews won’t be particularly keen on being on a burning oil tanker either. The insurers don’t want to pay out for burning tankers in war zones, and they won’t pay up. Nothing is going through that straight for a while now.
 

Vlip

Ars Legatus Legionis
20,046
Subscriptor
Regardless of where it’s registered, the owners of a tanker definitely do care, so they won’t be keen on getting their asset set on fire. The crews won’t be particularly keen on being on a burning oil tanker either. The insurers don’t want to pay out for burning tankers in war zones, and they won’t pay up. Nothing is going through that straight for a while now.
I was just pointing out that the registration country of a tanker had no bearing here. You are accurate that the actual owners and beneficient of the supply chain affected do care about the status of those tankers. Which is the whole point of closing the straight. Those are powerful forces on the globe and hurting them, hurts the people who decided to attack Iran.
 

m0nckywrench

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
7,490
Honestly nobody should be surprised by that. Fair is fair, the US fed targeting data to Ukraine for a long time so I don't think the US would have any foot to stand on complaining when Russia does the same here.
Direct Soviet and Maoist Chinese aid to clients warring with the US was perfectly normal. The Korean and Viet Nam conflicts are salient examples.Discreet US and client trade with those powers was a practical necessity.

Ensuring most proxy wars and other friction won't be existential moderates military actions. Mutually tolerable violent friction is an old game. For example US SIGINT and other recon aircraft and crew losses were tolerated costs of early Cold War (it never truly ended, only changed) business. So was current tourist attraction USS Pueblo.
This is all terrible news for the entire planet because this means that if Iran and Israel/the US cannot find a path for peace together in the future, the next time Israel/the US feel like they need to intervene in Iran, nothing short of a full blown invasion of the Iranian seabord would be a starting option.
Iran cannot impose seaboard invasion as a condition of US victory now so how pray tell could that change?

This prolonged, punitive raid could be repeated without boots on ground to prevent Iran from rearming unhindered which is increasingly difficult to conceal. There's no need for foolish occupation which intimate proximity gifts ones forces as convenient, inspirationally mediagenic targets.

There is nothing militarily worth seizing on the seaboard which would impose a staggering sustainment and defense burden while abandoning initiative. If anything there becomes problematic it can be destroyed without a ground visit.

Occupation would offer US forces as easy ground targets while imposing the bloodily expensive, futile burden of rule over an instantly galvanized opponent society not fond of colonial occupation. Punitive reduction of enemy systems by sustained bombardment is far more practical. Tehran would continue to be burdened governing territory and people it cannot defend or afford to sustain.

Gifting opposing forces with physical proximity makes their war easier while accepting legal responsibility including over the enemy population (who rule Iran by doing horrid things to dissenting Iranians).

Die-hards have every reason to decline defeat by a physical occupier. Only their own public can end their threat in detail over time.
---
Awkward but real bonus: Oil supply disruptions increase demand for dispersed energy production by clean methods not requiring constant, vulnerable heavy logistics support. The OPEC crisis is a motivating reason that crisis has not been repeated.
 
Last edited:

Vlip

Ars Legatus Legionis
20,046
Subscriptor
This is all terrible news for the entire planet because this means that if Iran and Israel/the US cannot find a path for peace together in the future, the next time Israel/the US feel like they need to intervene in Iran, nothing short of a full blown invasion of the Iranian seabord would be a starting option.
I know it is poor form to quote oneself but I just thought I needed to complete this thought a bit.

To me the above is one reason more (to the millions already existing) for any country looking at their strategic futur to get the fuck off fossile fuels as quickly as they can.

Everybody should be tired from having their economies hostage to the whims of middle-eastern nutjobs and russian monsters. The quicker we translate to an "all" electricity economy backed by "locally" produced renewable energy, the better for all of us that are not middle eastern or russian (and you could make a credible case that it would be better for them too).
 

SpocksBeer

Ars Tribunus Militum
1,549
Subscriptor++
I was watching those tankers on fire earlier and thinking...yeah, this is probably it. This is how it's going to be in that region for a good long while. The US military has done an exceptional job of their main role - rolling in, smashing a bunch of important military assets, killing important figures, and rolling out (well, we'll get there soon I think). Which is great, but it's not how wars seem to go at the moment.

We've seen what a nation without a navy can do to an adversary, only when it was Ukraine doing it, we all cheered. We can hope Iran has not been watching closely, but I suspect that horse has bolted. And now we'll get to watch a long, slow harassing campaign that effectively makes commercial shipping in the Strait un-insurable. The US (and allies) will be forced to expend massive naval resources patrolling, clearing and protecting merchant vessels, but it won't be enough. Small scale attacks, battlefield innovations and bad luck will combine to thwart the best layered defenses. Professional navies will be ill equipped to deal with guerrilla tactics at sea, and will inevitably also fall victim to them in some limited quantities at least. It'll become this generation's Vietnam.

I can't see how we get Iran to stop, either. With the decapitation of several levels of leadership, I'm not sure there's even a coherent "Iran" to deal with. The goal of maximum global economic disruption can be achieved with relatively little equipment, by relatively few people, operating in a relatively isolated command structure. And Iran isn't short of people or equipment, the IRGC seems pretty functional still, and they're surely full of rage to keep it up. Again, the parallels with the Ukrainian people seem apt, just with the shoe on the other foot. If this is the war that they must fight, because a more conventional war is off the table, then I can see no reason for them to stop - not with trustworthy negotiating partners no longer playing the diplomatic game.

I guess with Trump speaking again of nation building (this hour, at least), the next and only logical move is occupation to enforce control over the country. Again, not a quick win, nor a guaranteed one (looking at you, Afghanistan). So I guess we just get to watch more shit burn and more terror inflicted for quite some time yet.

I hope I'm wrong.
 

zenparadox

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,383
Subscriptor++
I was watching those tankers on fire earlier and thinking...yeah, this is probably it. This is how it's going to be in that region for a good long while. The US military has done an exceptional job of their main role - rolling in, smashing a bunch of important military assets, killing important figures, and rolling out (well, we'll get there soon I think). Which is great, but it's not how wars seem to go at the moment.

We've seen what a nation without a navy can do to an adversary, only when it was Ukraine doing it, we all cheered. We can hope Iran has not been watching closely, but I suspect that horse has bolted. And now we'll get to watch a long, slow harassing campaign that effectively makes commercial shipping in the Strait un-insurable. The US (and allies) will be forced to expend massive naval resources patrolling, clearing and protecting merchant vessels, but it won't be enough. Small scale attacks, battlefield innovations and bad luck will combine to thwart the best layered defenses. Professional navies will be ill equipped to deal with guerrilla tactics at sea, and will inevitably also fall victim to them in some limited quantities at least. It'll become this generation's Vietnam.

I can't see how we get Iran to stop, either. With the decapitation of several levels of leadership, I'm not sure there's even a coherent "Iran" to deal with. The goal of maximum global economic disruption can be achieved with relatively little equipment, by relatively few people, operating in a relatively isolated command structure. And Iran isn't short of people or equipment, the IRGC seems pretty functional still, and they're surely full of rage to keep it up. Again, the parallels with the Ukrainian people seem apt, just with the shoe on the other foot. If this is the war that they must fight, because a more conventional war is off the table, then I can see no reason for them to stop - not with trustworthy negotiating partners no longer playing the diplomatic game.

I guess with Trump speaking again of nation building (this hour, at least), the next and only logical move is occupation to enforce control over the country. Again, not a quick win, nor a guaranteed one (looking at you, Afghanistan). So I guess we just get to watch more shit burn and more terror inflicted for quite some time yet.

I hope I'm wrong.
About the only thing I could see the US achieving with boots on the ground might be occupying enough of a land strip along the strait and coast to prevent shore launched drone boats. That would maybe make the straight passable again. I'm OK for it to stay closed until it's knock on effects topple the Trump regime.
 
About the only thing I could see the US achieving with boots on the ground might be occupying enough of a land strip along the strait and coast to prevent shore launched drone boats. That would maybe make the straight passable again. I'm OK for it to stay closed until it's knock on effects topple the Trump regime.

Gonna need a lot more boots to secure a coast half the length of the US eastern seaboard.

And, well, UAVs are a thing. The current attacks might be with USVs, but it doesn't take a lot of drone to inconvenience a bulk cargo carrier or tanker beyond the point the shipping and insurance companies are willing to take the risk so it's not enough to just hold the coastline (also any surface infrastructure the US tries to lay down will be regularly if not incessantly targeted by insurgent activity).

And Iran is roughly similar in geography to Afghanistan and three times the size, so there's a lot of places for them to be able to build, set up, and launch from.

There are stupider options than trying a land occupation of Iran's mainland, but not very many.


The rumblings are that the US might just try to occupy Kharg Island, which is a major node in Iran's own oil production (though they've been drawing it down for several months before the war started, as it's a known vulnerability), but again, in range and vulnerable especially during the early phase of a landing which everyone will see coming half a world away.
 
It's funny.
About the only thing I could see the US achieving with boots on the ground might be occupying enough of a land strip along the strait and coast to prevent shore launched drone boats. That would maybe make the straight passable again. I'm OK for it to stay closed until it's knock on effects topple the Trump regime.
The Iranian southern coast is a flat exposed strip of sand thats isolated by a wall of inhospitable mountains hundreds of miles long offering defenders a full unobstructed field of view with lots of places to hide and shoot from. It's sparsely populated and little infrastructure, I think it's also one of the of the hottest places on earth (like Death Valley hot). Not to mention the invader has to supply it's forces with EVERYTHING either by ship and air or truck everything from Basra down the ONE coastal road that exist, and that will have to be guarded as well...for hundreds of miles of inhospitable desert.

It's a gigantic Dien Bien Phu waiting to happen but at least Dien Bien Phu had a termporate climate, some trees and soft dirt to dig into.

So... yeah I think they should totally go for it.
 
Last edited:

zenparadox

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,383
Subscriptor++
It's funny.

The Iranian southern coast is a flat exposed strip of sand thats isolated by a wall of inhospitable mountains hundreds of miles long offering defenders a full unobstructed field of view with lots of places to hide and shoot from. It's sparsely populated and little infrastructure, I think it's also one of the of the hottest places on earth (like Death Valley hot). Not to mention the invader has to supply it's forces with EVERYTHING either by ship and air or truck everything from Basra down the ONE coastal road that exist, and that will have to be guarded as well...for hundreds of miles of inhospitable desert.

It's a gigantic Dien Bien Phu waiting to happen but at least Dien Bien Phu had a termporate climate, some trees and soft dirt to dig into.

So... yeah I think they should totally go for it.
Fair enough, I've obviously not familiarised myself with the geography! The easiest way to learn on the internet is to post a wrong answer lol...
 

Ananke

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,420
Subscriptor
I guess with Trump speaking again of nation building (this hour, at least), the next and only logical move is occupation to enforce control over the country. Again, not a quick win, nor a guaranteed one (looking at you, Afghanistan). So I guess we just get to watch more shit burn and more terror inflicted for quite some time yet.
The phrase "dangling your dick in a piranha tank" comes to mind. Doing the thing that your military has explicitly been training not to get involved in for 50 years, that has failed spectacularly the last three times it's tried, on a much larger scale than any of those three, against a polity with greater cultural unity and nothing to lose, under the "leadership" of a toddler, whose only interests are corruption and getting his paedophilia out of the limelight?

"Not a quick win" is a contender for understatement of the century. What could possibly go wrong?
 
Fair enough, I've obviously not familiarised myself with the geography! The easiest way to learn on the internet is to post a wrong answer lol...
Yeah it's a fairly obscure part of the world despite being right next to the fulcrum that all of modern life hangs from. I find such places to be fascinating to learn about.

But wherever it takes place, I'm glad that the America Nazi regime is finally learning some stuff about the real Aryans.

They have to pretend and sign decrees that say "our" gulf is named "Gulf of America." But the Persian Gulf has always been (and will be) the Persian Gulf.
 
The Guardian's Jennifer Rankin writes a damning roundup of the EU's various and tepid responses to the US/Israel illegal war on Iran. No unity, no message, no courage except for Spain's Sánchez:

She goes on looking at the statements given this week across the EU and from analysts who are a bit more honest about what is and is not going on in the Union. Rankin calls von der Leyen's speech this week "blunt" where she says

other action from France and the UK are mute. Only Sánchez appears to be speaking truth to the powers.
While I find the Guardian a bit shrill in tone and replete with vacuous front page columnists, it is one of the few news orgs that I trust on generalized coverage after 2022 in that it speaks truth to power. It has been shocking to watch WaPo fall in line, the NYT avoid red line topics, and The Economist use its delightful prose to increasingly pander to the preexisting beliefs of Economist readers.
 

Klinn

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,329
Subscriptor++
Since Trump's war has already cost US taxpayers between 3 billion and 12 billion, depending on which estimate you're looking at, how soon will he start whining that an ungrateful Netanyahu hasn't thanked him enough and then slaps tariffs on Israel? After all, they're about the only ally in the world he hasn't pissed off yet.
 

dio82

Ars Legatus Legionis
10,307
Subscriptor
We've seen what a nation without a navy can do to an adversary, only when it was Ukraine doing it, we all cheered. We can hope Iran has not been watching closely, but I suspect that horse has bolted. And now we'll get to watch a long, slow harassing campaign that effectively makes commercial shipping in the Strait un-insurable. The US (and allies) will be forced to expend massive naval resources patrolling, clearing and protecting merchant vessels, but it won't be enough. Small scale attacks, battlefield innovations and bad luck will combine to thwart the best layered defenses. Professional navies will be ill equipped to deal with guerrilla tactics at sea, and will inevitably also fall victim to them in some limited quantities at least. It'll become this generation's Vietnam.
Iran invented the whole asymmetric speed boat naval warfare, but Ukraine absolutely dialed that up to 11 and perfected it.

The whole posturing by the Trump regime about sinking of 16 mine layer ships is a complete red herring. It is the Iranian SOP to deliver those mines by speed boats which are indistinguishable from civilian boats used by the thousands by locals in theatre there.

I am now hearing noise from Iran that Iran requires as a condition to open up the Straits for Israel and the US to pay reparations. So I guess oil prices above 500$ are here to come until the Trump regime is impeached.
 

timby

Ars Scholae Palatinae
1,197
Subscriptor
It has been shocking to watch WaPo fall in line, the NYT avoid red line topics, and The Economist use its delightful prose to increasingly pander to the preexisting beliefs of Economist readers.

It shouldn't be. The writing was on the wall for the WaPo the moment Bezos bought it and that writing was permanently etched into the wall when his divorce was final (it's generally accepted that he bought the Post for Mackenzie Scott because she was an ardent fan of the paper and its history), and the New York Times has generally been in the pocket of the White House for decades at this point, though obviously it's been leaning farther right in recent times.

But even a decade ago, when the Obama White House found out that the WaPo and the Guardian were about to blow the lid off the NSA's PRISM program of domestic surveillance via Palantir, they got on the horn with the NYT, which went on to hurry out and publish a heavily sanitized, government-sanctioned "report" on the depth of the NSA's spying, which beat the WaPo to the punch by a few hours and stole a little bit of its thunder.

The Fourth Estate has been complicit at best for a depressingly long time.
 
One almost admires the dedication the Iranian government is showing to being the consummate "bad guy" by chucking missiles at basically everyone around them and blowing up tankers registered in countries that have done nothing to them. It would be so easy to be sympathetic in the eyes of the world right now, especially when you're being compared to Trump and co.

But by god, if they're going out, they're going to drag the rest of the world down with them!

(I could speculate that Trump's reasoning is much the same with regard to the Epstein files, but I think the Iranian government had a shorter path to sympathy on the world stage, and that's saying something.)
It's a rational response. Sympathy and victimhood won't get you material international support in the face of American and Israeli animosity (look at Gaza). But making this war costly for the man on the street can shift governments.

It's not like Iran was known as anything but an unsympathetic, terror-stoking pariah before the war. They're not going to get much cover from good will, and the rules-based order is dead.
 

VividVerism

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,482
Subscriptor
One almost admires the dedication the Iranian government is showing to being the consummate "bad guy" by chucking missiles at basically everyone around them and blowing up tankers registered in countries that have done nothing to them. It would be so easy to be sympathetic in the eyes of the world right now, especially when you're being compared to Trump and co.

But by god, if they're going out, they're going to drag the rest of the world down with them!

(I could speculate that Trump's reasoning is much the same with regard to the Epstein files, but I think the Iranian government had a shorter path to sympathy on the world stage, and that's saying something.)
Regarding the tankers, my view is that Iran has made it very clear for years, and experts have been saying for years, "if you attack Iran, Iran will close the straits". Now that Iran is under attack, they have very publicly and very clearly declared, "the straits are closed, do not attempt transit, or we will blow you up."

Tankers attempting transit or looking like they are planning to attempt transit getting blown up don't get much of my sympathy. What did they think was going to happen?

I don't see any way to clean up this mess, but Trump and Netanyahu own it. Iran was very clear setting expectations regarding the strait, Trump and Netanyahu chose to ignore them.
 

Megalodon

Ars Legatus Legionis
36,639
Subscriptor
I was just pointing out that the registration country of a tanker had no bearing here. You are accurate that the actual owners and beneficient of the supply chain affected do care about the status of those tankers. Which is the whole point of closing the straight. Those are powerful forces on the globe and hurting them, hurts the people who decided to attack Iran.

I do think there is somewhat of an exception there for Chinese vessels, since as I understand it there actually are a significant number flagged as Chinese, crewed by Chinese people, with Chinese ownership, carrying out trade that is commercially useful for China.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SedsAtArs

Coriolanus

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,244
Subscriptor++
the New York Times has generally been in the pocket of the White House for decades at this point, though obviously it's been leaning farther right in recent times.
I haven't noticed any shift rightward on the NYT. Most of the articles are fairly neutral, in my experience (and I have been a subscriber for years and I read a ton of news).

The editorial section have some annoying right wing pundits like Ross Douthat, but for the most part, most commentary range from the fairly progressive (like Jamelle Bouie) to moderate Democratic leaning. Hell, even most of the "conservative" commentators like David French are not really Republicans anymore.
 

mpat

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
6,588
Subscriptor
Spain has a long and complicated history with Islam (go look it up) -- a bit more nuanced than "eww eww keep them away, icky icky icky".

Edit: Technically, I should probably have said "the Iberian peninsula" instead of "Spain", but y'all know what I mean.
Please don't try to drag the thread back into the middle ages. We know: The Umayads conquered most of the place in the 700s, and over a few centuries the remaining Visigoth elites (supported by some marches set up by Charlemagne) reconquered it. It all ended in 1492, the same year some guy from Genoa missed India by half a globe or so. It is not relevant to the thread.
 

QtDevSvr

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,196
Subscriptor++
I haven't noticed any shift rightward on the NYT. Most of the articles are fairly neutral, in my experience (and I have been a subscriber for years and I read a ton of news).

The editorial section have some annoying right wing pundits like Ross Douthat, but for the most part, most commentary range from the fairly progressive (like Jamelle Bouie) to moderate Democratic leaning. Hell, even most of the "conservative" commentators like David French are not really Republicans anymore.
I feel like you're missing something: In order to avoid having to take a stand against the admin, the NYT provides psychological analysis in lieu of investigative reporting. Today for example, we have an article taking up space right beneath the masthead, titled "How Hegseth Came to See Moral Purpose in War as Weakness". AFAIAC, Hegseth's psychological history is no more news that what he's wearing. He holds a cabinet office. His actions matter. If, every day, he does some immoral or unlawful or just plain contrary-to-the-public-interest stuff, then, every day, the NYT is duty bound IMO to print an article about his morally corrupt and legally impeachable actions. But they'd rather psychologize, because it is safer.
 

Sajuuk

Ars Legatus Legionis
12,864
Subscriptor++
That article is 101 years old (from Dec, 1924). I don't think the editorial direction of a newspaper is comparable to what it was a century ago.
The paper has an economic and cultural incentive to sanitize the status quo, whatever the status quo may be. It's entirely comparable, and we're all witnessing the liberal press sanitize Trump exactly how they sanitized that other guy, again.
 

Macam

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,210


Link

Apparently, super high gasoline prices are great, just like tariffs are great. Sure, you end up broke but 'we' (me, the president and my buddies the oil execs) get a huge slush fund. Guess we should bomb some of our own supply just to drive a little extra panic, squeeze the supply a bit, and really profit.