Russia’s space chief is “very unhappy” with “hostile” US policy

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putin and Prez Xi must be loving trump's spree of economic destruction.
You mean like dumping 1.6 Billion gallons of water out of a couple of dams without coordinating with anybody so that it could be used properly?

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-administration-releases-california-dam-water-wildfires-2024659

Anybody else in the entire water management chain who pulled this idiocy would have been fired on the spot.

Even the central valley farmers are pissed because they don't need that water now, they need it in the summer. Supposedly this was in part for fire prevention in Southern California - even though that part of the water system doesn't actually send any water south.
 
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tucu

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Cthel

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I have seen that claim before, but they seem to confuse rare earths with minerals that are scarce and can be considered strategic:

https://www.weforum.org/stories/202...ays-a-strategic-role-in-global-supply-chains/

Hey, if Trump says he wants "Rare Earths" then Ukraine should absolutely promise him rare earths
@GuyElster said:
#BREAKING Trump says he wants #Ukraine "give us rare earths"
https://twitter].com/guyelster/status/1886478824788947127
 
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tucu

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Hey, if Trump says he wants "Rare Earths" then Ukraine should absolutely promise him rare earths

https://twitter].com/guyelster/status/1886478824788947127
Screenshot from a document from the Ukrainian Geological Survey
9PhEUH4.png

https://www.geo.gov.ua/wp-content/uploads/presentations/en/critical-minerals-portfolio.pdf
 
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wagnerrp

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Good on all the provinces! Please push back hard on this blowhard oligarch bullshit.
I just saw an ad from the government of Ontario stating that as a major trading partner with the US, they stand with the American people during these troubling times. I was amused.
 
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numerobis

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Trump is talking about continuing aid to Ukraine in exchange for mineral rights to Ukraine's rare earths.

...does Ukraine even have significant rare earth deposits?
Yes, and various other ores as well. And oil and gas but I’m quite skeptical of the business case for developing those.

Edit: it comes to me that my skepticism is irrelevant. Ukraine can sell off oil and gas leases for military aid and if they never actually get exploited, more power to them.
 
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KGFish

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Yes, and various other ores as well. And oil and gas but I’m quite skeptical of the business case for developing those.

Edit: it comes to me that my skepticism is irrelevant. Ukraine can sell off oil and gas leases for military aid and if they never actually get exploited, more power to them.
I'm wondering if they could sell oil and gas leases in/near Crimea, and then go "Hey, we'd love to hand this stuff over to you for some really sweet prices, but we have this teeeeeeeeeny little problem...."
 
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KGFish

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If most are destroyed you'd get more damage out of carrying a 500kg bomb on a one way flight than an extra 250kg of fuel for a return trip.

Ukraine large kamikaze drones have been based off of small general aviation aircraft. Google gave 8-9 gallons for 120mi as the typical fuel economy for it's favorite Cesna (a 172). At the high end that's an extra ~245kg of fuel to RTB.

Which means if they're not averaging a 50% survival rate, 1 way drones would be delivering more payload per airframe built.

Adjust that number up or down based on how close the model google picked actually matches what Ukraine's basing their long range drones on, but you still need a significant recovery rate before it's worth while.

Especially since Russia should have better odds of intercepting them on the way back just because they'll have more time to scramble fighters into range to engage before they return to relative safety and will eventually start using the fast turn around missile strikes they used to counter sambushes to start plinking drone landing bases.
There are a couple of ways that this approach could make sense.

1) They're seeing above 50% hit rates for these types of drones.
2) They think that they can get there, and are planning for what kind of drones they would need when they do.

Even if it is just #2, planning for re-usable heavy bomber drones makes sense. They know how to design multi-modal attacks that greatly increase the odds of the primary delivery mechanism getting through - see their Neptune and ATACMS strikes. Now the question is why does the delivery mechanism need to get lost? Can they get the cost of the return far down enough that it has a positive impact on the overall delivery economics?

To some extent, that it is exactly the approach SpaceX took to develop reusable rockets: they didn't develop something to have it return the first time. Instead, they designed the Falcon 9 for future re-usability while using the standard mode to both get stuff going and to get experience with operating the rocket.

I can absolutely see a battlefield where we get a swarm of cheap-ass one way drones (whether kabloiee-enabled or not) saturating the immediate AD zone of the target, and then some heavy bomber drones sneaking in to drop some large, dumb bombs on static infrastructure, with only the heavy bombers expected to have any chance at return.

This is a good start to develop that sort of heavy bomber program.
 
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Trump is talking about continuing aid to Ukraine in exchange for mineral rights to Ukraine's rare earths.
On a somewhat related point, I saw somewhere or other the claim that if Putin ended the war now under terms where Russia keeps all the land they are sitting on in Ukraine it is a financial win because of the mineral values located there. Something like 1 Trillion dollars spent on the war but 12 Trillion dollars of mineral wealth. (Those numbers may not have been accurate in the first place and I may not be remembering them exactly.) This analysis does not take into account the loss associated with roughly a million casualties, but hey when you're the Czar, that's what the serfs are for, am I right?
 
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KGFish

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On a somewhat related point, I saw somewhere or other the claim that if Putin ended the war now under terms where Russia keeps all the land they are sitting on in Ukraine it is a financial win because of the mineral values located there. Something like 1 Trillion dollars spent on the war but 12 Trillion dollars of mineral wealth. (Those numbers may not have been accurate in the first place and I may not be remembering them exactly.) This analysis does not take into account the loss associated with roughly a million casualties, but hey when you're the Czar, that's what the serfs are for, am I right?

I think 12 trillion is the total mineral wealth in Ukraine, not the one under Russian control in Ukraine (though Crimea and its EEZ could skew that a little bit, but I don't that the cost of the war should be compared to the amount stolen before it).

But yes, I'm fairly certain that for Putin, the current loss of treasure and blood is insignificant compared to the win in land and potential to acquire more.
 
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KGFish

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Looks like Russia's offensive is starting to slow down a bit.

View: https://bsky.app/profile/inkvisiit.bsky.social/post/3lhbebd244c2k


November was the month with the highest area gained, with January clocking in at about the area gained in November. I mean.... you'd think with assaults on crutches and bikes, Russia would start to have SOME problem advancing. The big question here is whether this is a pause to regroup, a pause to await news from Trump, a focus on specific productive areas, or a genuine reduced ability to advance.

Probably a combination of all of them. They've stopped a critical mine in Pokrovsk, and I don't see anything within a few months worth of advances that could have a similar impact on Ukraine's ability to wage war. They're literally advancing on crutches - that can't be productive in anyone's eyes. Trump, despite all his bluster, is at a minimum still surrounded by idiots literally advancing Putin's talking points. North Koreans seem to be absent, so a big chunk of firepower is gone.

Can Ukraine leverage this? Not sure what they'd do.
 
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Rrr7

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Tesla steeply raised its Canadian prices ahead of time, presumably to fit the counter-tariffs inside. Add the end of various subsidy programs (for all EVs) last month, and I bet Tesla sales in Canada are going to just fall off a cliff.
I'm pretty sure Tesla can just send cars made in Germany to Canada (instead of US-made), and those wouldn't be affected by the new tariffs.
 
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Cthel

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I'm pretty sure Tesla can just send cars made in Germany to Canada (instead of US-made), and those wouldn't be affected by the new tariffs.
Will there be the demand for them, if Musk is associated with Trump in the mind of Canadian consumers?
 
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KGFish

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Some info about North Korea and its military involvement there, from Newsweek, of all places.
https://www.newsweek.com/north-kore...erculosis-military-russia-ukraine-war-2023982

Interesting nuggets:
Assumption is that Kim wants to improve the combat readiness of his troops. Basically, live-fire exercise. It's possible that the current NK retreat is a sign that the ROI on the loss of soldiers is starting to be less than any improvements to its army that can come from it.
NK are bribing doctors to not send their sons to Ukraine with TB diagnoses. There may be also a real concern that if enough soldiers die in Ukraine, enough of the population may actually revolt. It's a dictatorship, but even they operate on support systems and satisfying some needs. Killing off your army may erode those support systems.
 
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The Dark

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In stores around here the non-Wigwam brands of thick socks are down to a handful of XS and XXL pairs each. Aisles and aisles of Wigwams, and plenty of thin socks.

Ah, I don't know what's carried in stores, just who I've heard positive remarks about. I used REI for my thick socks a few years back and haven't needed any recently, so my personal experience isn't any help.
 
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Faceless Man

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I'm pretty sure Tesla can just send cars made in Germany to Canada (instead of US-made), and those wouldn't be affected by the new tariffs.
Of course, those will cost more because of the increased shipping fees, what with having to put them on a boat and sail them over, rather than just drive them up the road. Or even if they do ship them by boat (what with the potential for higher volume by boat than by road or rail transport), it will cost more to come from Europe than from the US due to the distance involved.
 
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Trump is talking about continuing aid to Ukraine in exchange for mineral rights to Ukraine's rare earths.

...does Ukraine even have significant rare earth deposits?
:cry:
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=putin+invaded+ukraine+for+mineral+wealth&ia=web

Many said that was putin's real reason for invasion. Probably true; the Empire-building and Nazi-killing stuff was to whip up support from his subjects.

I think giving the trump regime the mineral rights is a recipe for exploitation. When is Ukraine ever going to get a break.
 
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numerobis

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Ah, I don't know what's carried in stores, just who I've heard positive remarks about. I used REI for my thick socks a few years back and haven't needed any recently, so my personal experience isn't any help.
It's mid-winter so the stores are low on stock. People bought socks for Christmas.
 
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numerobis

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I'm pretty sure Tesla can just send cars made in Germany to Canada (instead of US-made), and those wouldn't be affected by the new tariffs.
Tariffs affect the profit margins, not directly the price. Right now the off-the-lot price of a new Tesla is up by about 20-25% for the smaller models compared to a year ago IIUC.

So, same product, 20% more expensive, associated with a country and a man who seems to be treating us as an enemy. It's hard to see how Tesla sales in Canada don't tank.
 
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numerobis

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:cry:
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=putin+invaded+ukraine+for+mineral+wealth&ia=web

Many said that was putin's real reason for invasion. Probably true; the Empire-building and Nazi-killing stuff was to whip up support from his subjects.

I think giving the trump regime the mineral rights is a recipe for exploitation. When is Ukraine ever going to get a break.
I think the empire-building is the real reason for Putin. The economic potential helps get buy-in from other power centres. But the economic potential is ending up pretty minimal for the invaders because they have to utterly flatten the place before they can move in. Any existing infrastructure gets destroyed, and working populations evacuate.

Russia is capturing minefields with added UXO between some ruined buildings in which tiny numbers of the elderly and disabled live. Turning any of that into a working mine is going to be a big job, and all the industry is gone.
 
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DB63

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:cry:
https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=putin+invaded+ukraine+for+mineral+wealth&ia=web

Many said that was putin's real reason for invasion. Probably true; the Empire-building and Nazi-killing stuff was to whip up support from his subjects.

I think giving the trump regime the mineral rights is a recipe for exploitation. When is Ukraine ever going to get a break.
I think the economic motivation makes sense especially at the start when they were planning on it all being done in three days. But they've been dragged into an ever more costly grind. The balance sheet must be looking pretty dubious now.
 
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D

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So, Fed govt is funding things again and Mexico & Canada are friendzies with the US again. If all the policies only last 24hrs maybe things won't be too bad.
Well, what about the policies affecting minorities (e.g the Trans people) ? Because, successfully fighting the large stuff is not going to save them from genocide.
 
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numerobis

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So, Fed govt is funding things again and Mexico & Canada are friendzies with the US again. If all the policies only last 24hrs maybe things won't be too bad.
"friendzies" ... yeah. Sure. Pay no attention to our entire economies trying to tighten up our supply chains and find new suppliers and customers in reliable nations.
 
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raxx7

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I think the economic motivation makes sense especially at the start when they were planning on it all being done in three days. But they've been dragged into an ever more costly grind. The balance sheet must be looking pretty dubious now.

Rare earth deposits aren't that rare. Russia has them too. So does the USA.
It's the separation which is difficult and nowadays mostly done in China.

In fact even if we were to put ethics aside there's probably zero natural resources which are valuable enough to fight a war for.
Even oil isn't worth it. Maybe fresh water in the not-so-distant future will.
 
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KGFish

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Rare earth deposits aren't that rare. Russia has them too. So does the USA.
It's the separation which is difficult and nowadays mostly done in China.

In fact even if we were to put ethics aside there's probably zero natural resources which are valuable enough to fight a war for.
Even oil isn't worth it. Maybe fresh water in the not-so-distant future will.
"Whiskey's for drinking. Water is for fighting over."
 
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numerobis

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Rare earth deposits aren't that rare. Russia has them too. So does the USA.
It's the separation which is difficult and nowadays mostly done in China.

In fact even if we were to put ethics aside there's probably zero natural resources which are valuable enough to fight a war for.
Even oil isn't worth it. Maybe fresh water in the not-so-distant future will.
Fresh water for landlocked nations, sure. For coastal ones, with energy getting ever cheaper, and materials science improving, desalination becomes ever more economically relevant.
 
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numerobis

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Day to day it seems that nothing much is happening in Ukraine/russia. Huge numbers of people die, Russia slowly grabs unimportant bits of devastated land (which may have been important in the past, but it got destroyed months ago). Repeat endlessly.

The theory of victory for Ukraine really seems to be reduced to a Russian financial collapse leading to regime change. I don’t know how long Russia can hold off bank runs, but even if they happen, would it actually cause regime change? And if it did, would it cause military withdrawal?
 
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wagnerrp

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Day to day it seems that nothing much is happening in Ukraine/russia. Huge numbers of people die, Russia slowly grabs unimportant bits of devastated land (which may have been important in the past, but it got destroyed months ago). Repeat endlessly.

The theory of victory for Ukraine really seems to be reduced to a Russian financial collapse leading to regime change. I don’t know how long Russia can hold off bank runs, but even if they happen, would it actually cause regime change? And if it did, would it cause military withdrawal?
They don't need regime change, or withdrawal. They just need to last until recruitment to the Russian Army fails. There's rumors suggesting we're already there. Russia has been driving itself to bankruptcy to avoid general conscription. Either they take that plunge and we see what it was they were afraid of, or they won't be able to continue to push.
 
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Wheels Of Confusion

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They just need to last until recruitment to the Russian Army fails. There's rumors suggesting we're already there. Russia has been driving itself to bankruptcy to avoid general conscription. Either they take that plunge and we see what it was they were afraid of, or they won't be able to continue to push.
To that note, stolen from the thread in The Bad Place:
Russian media reports that RuMOD is working on a new recruit classification system. Among the proposed changes are classifying as 'fit, with restrictions' people diagnosed with syphilis, schizophreny, schizotypical and schizoaffective disorders, acute and intermittent psychotic disorders, as well as other 'acute and persistent' personality disorders, including those caused by habitual use of psychoactive substances.
 
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