Russia’s space chief is “very unhappy” with “hostile” US policy

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DB63

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Day to day it seems that nothing much is happening in Ukraine/russia. Huge numbers of people die, Russia slowly grabs unimportant bits of devastated land (which may have been important in the past, but it got destroyed months ago). Repeat endlessly.

The theory of victory for Ukraine really seems to be reduced to a Russian financial collapse leading to regime change. I don’t know how long Russia can hold off bank runs, but even if they happen, would it actually cause regime change? And if it did, would it cause military withdrawal?

RU casualties have been down by about 500/day in the last five days. AFV losses are also down. It might be just N. Koreans leaving the theatre, though.
 
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Day to day it seems that nothing much is happening in Ukraine/russia. Huge numbers of people die, Russia slowly grabs unimportant bits of devastated land (which may have been important in the past, but it got destroyed months ago). Repeat endlessly.

The theory of victory for Ukraine really seems to be reduced to a Russian financial collapse leading to regime change. I don’t know how long Russia can hold off bank runs, but even if they happen, would it actually cause regime change? And if it did, would it cause military withdrawal?
No, Ukraine's theory of victory is waiting for the Soviet stockpiles to run dry, for Russia's numbers to dwindle, and for their economy to become unable to sustain the war at this scale, all of which is slowly happening, and then to reconstitute enough to take advantage of that. The war will continue to look like nothing much is happening for a while yet, maybe another year. That doesn't mean that that will continue forever.
 
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KGFish

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No, Ukraine's theory of victory is waiting for the Soviet stockpiles to run dry, for Russia's numbers to dwindle, and for their economy to become unable to sustain the war at this scale, all of which is slowly happening, and then to reconstitute enough to take advantage of that. The war will continue to look like nothing much is happening for a while yet, maybe another year. That doesn't mean that that will continue forever.
A rather important thing to add: to make all this happen before its own forces are unable to secure the front and its own economy becomes unable to sustain the war.
 
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Well, what about the policies affecting minorities (e.g the Trans people) ? Because, successfully fighting the large stuff is not going to save them from genocide.
Some good people on RedditFR24 spoke of counting the aircraft (seats) that fly to Guantanamo Bay, "should the worst happen". Today's equivalent of the cattle trucks. gods help us, it's nightmarish.
 
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DanNeely

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To that note, stolen from the thread in The Bad Place:

As long as they can be convinced to ride to their death against Ukrainian FPVs and machine guns I guess it doesn't matter how dysfunctional they are otherwise. Meat doesn't actually need much actual combat capability.

Edit: I'm now wondering if this is aimed at general recruiting or just extracting more meat from the prison system.
 
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numerobis

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No, Ukraine's theory of victory is waiting for the Soviet stockpiles to run dry, for Russia's numbers to dwindle, and for their economy to become unable to sustain the war at this scale, all of which is slowly happening, and then to reconstitute enough to take advantage of that. The war will continue to look like nothing much is happening for a while yet, maybe another year. That doesn't mean that that will continue forever.
Ukraine hasn't talked about militarily reconquering lands since 2023. That suggests their theory of victory isn't that.
 
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Ukraine hasn't talked about militarily reconquering lands since 2023. That suggests their theory of victory isn't that.
What they have said is that they don't have the capacity to retake all the occupied areas, with a strong implication that all or most of them will be regained through negotiations. For that to happen they need the military strength and position to make that a reasonable proposition for Russia, so while they may not plan to actually launch a series of counteroffensives, they at least need to look like they could sometime in the future.
 
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KGFish

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Danes starting to take the gloves off when it comes to the Russian Shadow Fleet:
https://danwatch.dk/danmark-vil-kontrollere-skyggeflaaden/

TLDR: ships part of Russian's Shadow Fleet that stop to refuel in the Danish port of Skagen will be investigated for compliance with various environmental rules. Ships that fail inspection may be confiscated.

Skagen is not the only port where Shadow Fleet ships can refuel, but there's nothing that stops other ports from following suit.

Some small bit of good news.
 
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raxx7

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Fresh water for landlocked nations, sure. For coastal ones, with energy getting ever cheaper, and materials science improving, desalination becomes ever more economically relevant.

Desalinization's costs have a long long way to go.
Desalinization produces water at > 0,50€/m³. This is OK for human consumption but way way too expensive for farming which is the biggest user and is mostly relies on getting fresh water at ~1 cent/m³.
 
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tucu

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Desalinization's costs have a long long way to go.
Desalinization produces water at > 0,50€/m³. This is OK for human consumption but way way too expensive for farming which is the biggest user and is mostly relies on getting fresh water at ~1 cent/m³.
Some Spanish regions use water from the desalination plants for agriculture, although probably mainly as a complement for greenhouses that have recirculating hydroponics and rainwater catchment systems.
 
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Danes starting to take the gloves off when it comes to the Russian Shadow Fleet:
https://danwatch.dk/danmark-vil-kontrollere-skyggeflaaden/

TLDR: ships part of Russian's Shadow Fleet that stop to refuel in the Danish port of Skagen will be investigated for compliance with various environmental rules. Ships that fail inspection may be confiscated.

Skagen is not the only port where Shadow Fleet ships can refuel, but there's nothing that stops other ports from following suit.

Some small bit of good news.
Passing and enforcing pollution laws/regulations is entirely legit. Even UNCLOS Part III explicitly says it's totally legit meaning that it can be enforced during transit, not just at ports/within the 12 mile limit. Admittedly it's likely to be easier at ports.
 
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mhalpern

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Some Spanish regions use water from the desalination plants for agriculture, although probably mainly as a complement for greenhouses that have recirculating hydroponics and rainwater catchment systems.
municipal water capture and recycling is probably going to make the biggest difference, desalination would just have to make the difference could potentially use some of the brine for roads and for grid storage. so there's some value add potential
 
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municipal water capture and recycling is probably going to make the biggest difference, desalination would just have to make the difference could potentially use some of the brine for roads and for grid storage. so there's some value add potential
El Paso has been quietly "banking" treated wastewater back into the aquifer since the '80s.

They now have a project building a new purification system which will route directly into municipal water distribution system.
 
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Chuckstar

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municipal water capture and recycling is probably going to make the biggest difference, desalination would just have to make the difference could potentially use some of the brine for roads and for grid storage. so there's some value add potential
Recycling municipal water is like finding small change in your couch. As pointed out above, the lion’s share of water is used in agriculture. After that is industrial, the really big users of which aren’t even attached to municipal systems.

EDIT: Not that I’m against using treated municipal water. It’s just not really a solution to the kinds of water wars people predict. In a lot of cases, treating municipal water is preferable to the alternatives — new dams, new aqueducts, etc.
 
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Chuckstar

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El Paso has been quietly "banking" treated wastewater back into the aquifer since the '80s.

They now have a project building a new purification system which will route directly into municipal water distribution system.
Orange County, CA has long had a system that purifies to drinkable levels. They still pump it down into the aquifer and then pump up from the aquifer nearby. It’s done only because people seem to accept drinking treated water that has percolated through the aquifer, and rebel against the idea of treated water being piped right to their homes.
 
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Some Spanish regions use water from the desalination plants for agriculture, although probably mainly as a complement for greenhouses that have recirculating hydroponics and rainwater catchment systems.
These hi-tech glasshouses seem to have a life of their own; robotic seeding, transplanting, pollinating, harvesting, precision feeding & watering. All your produce untouched by human hand.
 
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Orange County, CA has long had a system that purifies to drinkable levels. They still pump it down into the aquifer and then pump up from the aquifer nearby. It’s done only because people seem to accept drinking treated water that has percolated through the aquifer, and rebel against the idea of treated water being piped right to their homes.
Maybe foolish, but I'd rebel. Stuff like Flint happens.
 
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Maybe foolish, but I'd rebel. Stuff like Flint happens.
What stuff, old lead pipes? That isn't going to happen. What could happen, because it already does, is small molecules like drugs remaining in the purified water. The reverse osmosis systems used in desalination are actually better at this than the conventional water systems most places employ with, for instance, river or ground water. Definitely better than settling ponds and running that through sand. A few small molecules roughly the size of water will pass through an RO system (H2S, for instance), as will some small organics and volatile organics, but the majority of drugs are too big to go through the membrane. Pesticides are mostly pretty big, those should be removed too.
 
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Possibly relevant to Ukraine. I'm beginning to wonder if Trump has any concept at all of how most people think about their countries and what they will do to protect them. Consider his recent comments on Gaza, the transcript is here:

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/full-text-trump-and-netanyahus-explosive-news-conference

Among other choice tidbits we have:

Instead, we should go to other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts, and there are many of them that want to do this and build various domains that will ultimately be occupied by the million Palestinians living in Gaza, ending the death and destruction and frankly bad luck.

The only reason the Palestinians want to go back to Gaza is they have no alternative.

The US will take over the Gaza Strip and we will do a job with it too.

I do see a long-term ownership position and I see it bringing great stability to that part of the Middle East, and maybe the entire Middle East.

Of course this landed like a lead balloon with every Arab and Muslim country, and as far as I can tell, every other country on the planet. The European, Chinese, South American, and etc. statements on the matter have been the diplomatic version of "what a Moron". Also, at long last Iran and Saudi Arabia are standing shoulder to shoulder on something. Great work Mr. President. Anyway, the most striking thing to me is that he seems to think he can treat Gaza in particular, and countries in general, like any other redevelopment project. You know, evict the inhabitants, put up something with TRUMP on the top, and profit. It will be beautiful. But that isn't what happens when dealing with countries. People don't negotiate the sale of their country with an invader and happily move away. Instead the two sides kill each other until the conflict is resolved. He keeps talking about how the Iranians want to kill him, well he can now add pretty much every Palestinian to the list, along with something like a billion other Arabs and Muslims. I wonder if he even remembers who Sirhan Sirhan is, perhaps RFK Jr. can remind him?
 
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DanNeely

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Possibly relevant to Ukraine. I'm beginning to wonder if Trump has any concept at all of how most people think about their countries and what they will do to protect them. Consider his recent comments on Gaza, the transcript is here:

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/full-text-trump-and-netanyahus-explosive-news-conference

Among other choice tidbits we have:









Of course this landed like a lead balloon with every Arab and Muslim country, and as far as I can tell, every other country on the planet. The European, Chinese, South American, and etc. statements on the matter have been the diplomatic version of "what a Moron". Also, at long last Iran and Saudi Arabia are standing shoulder to shoulder on something. Great work Mr. President. Anyway, the most striking thing to me is that he seems to think he can treat Gaza in particular, and countries in general, like any other redevelopment project. You know, evict the inhabitants, put up something with TRUMP on the top, and profit. It will be beautiful. But that isn't what happens when dealing with countries. People don't negotiate the sale of their country with an invader and happily move away. Instead the two sides kill each other until the conflict is resolved. He keeps talking about how the Iranians want to kill him, well he can now add pretty much every Palestinian to the list, along with something like a billion other Arabs and Muslims. I wonder if he even remembers who Sirhan Sirhan is, perhaps RFK Jr. can remind him?

The last time I saw something that stupid was in my high school world cultures class. We had an in class exercise doing post 1973 peace settlement negotiations. During it the Israeli leader proposed carving off the southern part of the Sinai as a new homeland for the Palestinians (and Egypt controlled northern Sinai as a buffer) with them agreeing to leave Gaza, the West Bank, and giving up all claims they had in Israeli controlled territory. It was accepted. 🤦‍♂️ Afterwards our teacher gave them a WTF were you thinking lecture. We were just a bunch of dumb 14 and 15 year olds though, not the alleged leader of the free world. 😆
 
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vhoracek

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Ukrainian UAVs struck the Primorsko-Akhtarsk airbase in Krasnodar oblast during the night; reportedly a fire broke out and damage is being assessed. The airbase is used to store and launch Shahed drone attacks against Ukraine as well as servicing aircraft operating in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts.


Russian overnight attack tally:
  • 2 Iskander-M SRBMs
  • 77 Shahed drones and imitators (56 shot down, 18 decoys lost), damage caused in Cherkasy, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts

 
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Cthel

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The first of the Mirage 2000s donated by France have arrived in Ukraine
@SebLecomu via DeepL Translate said:
On 6 June 2024,
@EmmanuelMacron
announced the delivery of French Mirage 2000s to Ukraine.

The first of them arrived in Ukraine today.

With Ukrainian pilots trained for several months in France on board, they will now help defend Ukraine's skies.

In addition to air-to-air missiles, the Mirage 2000s are fully compatible with the AASM HAMMER rocket-boosted GPS-guided glide bombs that France has been donating to Ukraine since mid-2024
 
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Cthel

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Russian media are reporting a fresh Ukranian offensive in the Kursk salient
DeepL Translate said:
In Kursk Region, an AFU column of 400 Ukrainian servicemen on NATO equipment has launched a counter-offensive from the Suzhansky district towards the Belovskyy district. According to SHOT, part of the column was broken up on the approaches to the village of Ulanok, and fighting is currently taking place there.
 
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BrangdonJ

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Anyone got any opinions about Jared Isaacman as head of NASA?

I'm hoping the Earth & Climate Science departments won't be terminated, and the infrared telescope will survive. But it's all about Planet B now. Jared and Elon.
How is Isaacman all about Mars? His projects don't seem to have had much to do with it. For example, he wanted to spend a lot of his own money on raising Hubble's orbit and generally prolonging its life. NASA said no, but maybe that will change now. Historically, Musk has worked for him as a provider of services, not vice versa. Musk wants to send ships to Mars in 2 and 4 years, and maybe some NASA funding will contribute to that (and they could benefit enormously from being able to land 100 tonnes at a time instead of less than 1 tonne), but it probably won't be at the expense of Earth sciences and if they also get cut it'll be because of Trump. I would expect Isaacman to be a sane voice who pushes back against that.
 
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vhoracek

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The first of the Mirage 2000s donated by France have arrived in Ukraine


In addition to air-to-air missiles, the Mirage 2000s are fully compatible with the AASM HAMMER rocket-boosted GPS-guided glide bombs that France has been donating to Ukraine since mid-2024

In addition, the Dutch also transferred an unspecified quantity of F-16s to Ukraine.

 
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brionl

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Possibly relevant to Ukraine. I'm beginning to wonder if Trump has any concept at all of how most people think about their countries and what they will do to protect them. Consider his recent comments on Gaza, the transcript is here:

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/full-text-trump-and-netanyahus-explosive-news-conference

Among other choice tidbits we have:









Of course this landed like a lead balloon with every Arab and Muslim country, and as far as I can tell, every other country on the planet. The European, Chinese, South American, and etc. statements on the matter have been the diplomatic version of "what a Moron". Also, at long last Iran and Saudi Arabia are standing shoulder to shoulder on something. Great work Mr. President. Anyway, the most striking thing to me is that he seems to think he can treat Gaza in particular, and countries in general, like any other redevelopment project. You know, evict the inhabitants, put up something with TRUMP on the top, and profit. It will be beautiful. But that isn't what happens when dealing with countries. People don't negotiate the sale of their country with an invader and happily move away. Instead the two sides kill each other until the conflict is resolved. He keeps talking about how the Iranians want to kill him, well he can now add pretty much every Palestinian to the list, along with something like a billion other Arabs and Muslims. I wonder if he even remembers who Sirhan Sirhan is, perhaps RFK Jr. can remind him?

If we're going for stupid ideas, draw a 40,000 cubit radius circle around Temple Mount, and say that only Angels can live there now. ALL the people have to move out.
 
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If we're going for stupid ideas, draw a 40,000 cubit radius circle around Temple Mount, and say that only Angels can live there now. ALL the people have to move out.

Unlike Jerusalem, the fight over Gaza is only about half religious. There is an Israeli contingent that believe that they have a claim on land which includes Gaza because their God gave it to them. I don't believe that the Palestinians, not even Hamas with its religious fanatics, have made that sort of claim for this particular piece of land. Instead theirs is the more conventional "this is where we have lived for centuries and it is our land".

The way things are going, I will not be surprised when Trump suggests that the two parties refer the matter to their title insurance companies for resolution.
 
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mhalpern

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Unlike Jerusalem, the fight over Gaza is only about half religious. There is an Israeli contingent that believe that they have a claim on land which includes Gaza because their God gave it to them. I don't believe that the Palestinians, not even Hamas with its religious fanatics, have made that sort of claim for this particular piece of land. Instead theirs is the more conventional "this is where we have lived for centuries and it is our land".

The way things are going, I will not be surprised when Trump suggests that the two parties refer the matter to their title insurance companies for resolution.
... insurance companies won't cover Florida properties, what makes you think they'd touch the middle east with a 10ft pole?
 
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Chuckstar

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Unlike Jerusalem, the fight over Gaza is only about half religious. There is an Israeli contingent that believe that they have a claim on land which includes Gaza because their God gave it to them. I don't believe that the Palestinians, not even Hamas with its religious fanatics, have made that sort of claim for this particular piece of land. Instead theirs is the more conventional "this is where we have lived for centuries and it is our land".

The way things are going, I will not be surprised when Trump suggests that the two parties refer the matter to their title insurance companies for resolution.
Not just Jerusalem. Most/all of the West Bank represents the heartland of biblical Judaism. Judaism evolved there and Jews actually lived there. Gaza was where the Philistines lived and was just promised to the Jews, at some vague future date (and if they earned it through piety).

The biblical promise was basically everything between Egypt and the Med in the West to the Euphrates in the East. So Gaza ranks as similar to today’s Jordan in biblical importance as a homeland.
 
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vhoracek

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Spring is around the corner and this thread's OG topic is coming back home to nest.

Dmitry Bakanov, previously a deputy minister of transportation, replaces Yuri Borisov as head of Roscosmos. Bakanov was previously heading the Gonets LEO satellite project from 2011 to 2019.

 
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Wheels Of Confusion

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I guess Putin is Bakanov that appointment.

iu
 
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