Report reveals which sealed NES games are the rarest of the rare
- Thread starter JournalBot
- Start date
Their comparison to Action Comics #1 is ridiculous for a variety of reasons, the first of which is that Super Mario Bros is NOT the first video game by any stretch. They're ignoring, at the very least, the Atari 2600 in it's entirety. (I will "allow for" single-game consoles such as Pong machines to be excluded, but it's also worth pointing out that the Fairchild Channel F is technically the first "true console" with a general CPU that could run arbitrary code (It's Turing Complete, well short of infinite memory it is).
The second, and I think more important note is that Super Mario Bros on NES is not rare, not nearly as rare as Action Comics #1 was on release. That game is one of the best selling in video game history. That makes it LESS valuable as a collector's item, not more. It's why so many "speculator bubbles" failed. So many companies attempted to artificially inflate the value of their product by claiming it'll one day be "as valuable as that one old comic you heard about", and they all worked against themselves by massively filling the market with an overabundance of said product. It happened in the 90's with collector comics and then also in the 90's with Beanie Babies. The supply is just way too high.
I'll grant that when you get into "unopened copies", things get murkier, but I promise you that there's a LOT more unopened copies of Super Mario Bros floating around than there are unopened copies of Action Comics #1.
The videos already posted above make a solid point at the very end: VGA sold their unopened copy of Super Mario 64 (graded comparatively with WATA's copies) for FAR less, recently, than WATA did. Indeed, WATA has only now even provided this data thanks to pressure from the gaming community thanks in part to Jobst's amazingly well done expose.
I want nothing more than to see these bubble makers that only succeed in managing to damage the collector's community by their very existence pushed out and bankrupted for what they've done.
The second, and I think more important note is that Super Mario Bros on NES is not rare, not nearly as rare as Action Comics #1 was on release. That game is one of the best selling in video game history. That makes it LESS valuable as a collector's item, not more. It's why so many "speculator bubbles" failed. So many companies attempted to artificially inflate the value of their product by claiming it'll one day be "as valuable as that one old comic you heard about", and they all worked against themselves by massively filling the market with an overabundance of said product. It happened in the 90's with collector comics and then also in the 90's with Beanie Babies. The supply is just way too high.
I'll grant that when you get into "unopened copies", things get murkier, but I promise you that there's a LOT more unopened copies of Super Mario Bros floating around than there are unopened copies of Action Comics #1.
The videos already posted above make a solid point at the very end: VGA sold their unopened copy of Super Mario 64 (graded comparatively with WATA's copies) for FAR less, recently, than WATA did. Indeed, WATA has only now even provided this data thanks to pressure from the gaming community thanks in part to Jobst's amazingly well done expose.
I want nothing more than to see these bubble makers that only succeed in managing to damage the collector's community by their very existence pushed out and bankrupted for what they've done.
Upvote
22
(25
/
-3)
This is one of those places where non-card collectibles make very little sense. Cards at least have to be unwrapped from the pack to have actual value (Schroedinger's Pack theory notwithstanding). And while that is *somewhat* weird with CCGs specifically -- unopened boxes of ancient production lines can sell for huge sums on the chance of having an ultra rare high money card -- it isn't entirely obviated.
Nonetheless, it's also exactly like art in which arbitrary value is assigned to an objects based on an arbitrary process of "value accumulation" on the basis of factors that are subjective at least in part.
I don't know anything about Wata. I don't participate in the video games collectible market...I just collect old video games.
Upvote
6
(6
/
0)
After hearing reader feedback, we will be expanding on our previous coverage of Wata Games and Halperin, and further examining the allegations of ethical breaches by Wata and others in the game collecting community. Look for a report here on Ars in the future.
Upvote
69
(70
/
-1)
Thank you, Kyle! Definitely looking forward to see what you and Ars have to say on the allegations.
Upvote
24
(24
/
0)
In addition to the Jobst videos everyone has recommended, I would also recommend the Wendover Productions video called "The Art Market is a Scam (And Rich People Run It).
Market manipulation, scamming, artificial valuation... It sounds a lot like the video game collecting industry and the new phenomenon of NFTs. These industries are created to separate fools from their money, and it really requires deeper analysis than "wow, this Mario game sold for a lot of money."
https://youtu.be/ZZ3F3zWiEmc
Upvote
18
(19
/
-1)
There's a great episode of Adam Ruins Everything where Adam explains how the fine art world is nothing but a huge scam.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dw5kme5Q_Yo
Upvote
17
(17
/
0)
Just the mere existence of "collectibles" markets like this where relatively mundane items get sold for stupid money make me think there's just way too much liquidity in the higher wealth bracket. Where in the past this would have been spend on things like running a household with 10 or 15 staff, commissioning a yacht, and all sorts of other (business) ventures that in the end DID at least redistribute some of that wealth to the middle and lower classes it seems that nowadays much of that money stays in the upper classes and just gets pumped around and around on stupid shit.
Upvote
15
(15
/
0)
Thank goodness. It was frustrating to read this article (and the last one pertaining to WATA) and see it so devoid of the context in which all this is occurring. It is impossible to take these organizations at face value in light of their complicated and questionable backgrounds, and this article makes Ars appear to be uncritical in accepting information from sources which really should have a more critical light shone on them.
Upvote
13
(13
/
0)
Upvote
14
(14
/
0)
Technically it's a tax shelter, but that is also a kind of scam, so...
Upvote
3
(3
/
0)
On an unrelated note, "quality review" of games that require the box to be unopened may need to change. The internals of a game degrade over time in ways that can't be timed down to the year or perhaps even the decade of when a component may fail. This applies to optical media with disc rot as well as cartridges. Ultimately, we may have to sacrifice "cutting open" the plastic wrapping around a boxed game in order to fully examine the internals for a more informative rating on whether or not capacitors are leaking, bit rot has set in, or a save battery has died. Imagine finally relenting and breaking down to actually play that million dollar cart only to realize it's faulty.
Upvote
5
(5
/
0)
Lots of people are saying this, but I'm gonna drop a few things:
People associated with wata games bought databases that tracked things like variants, rarity, and sale prices including Nintendo life, then shut them down, removing decades of community work that could serve as an independent fact check or comparison tool. Lots of this info, if not all info available at the time of nintendo life's sale, used to exist in freely accessible community form.
By colluding with their auction house, Wata executives have graded and sold their own games between each other for record amounts. These executives have used these record sales as evidence of Wata's grading standards (which shouldn't have any credibility in reality) to push out established players in the grading and collectable auction spaces, and then they get dupes like Ars Technica to put out amazing fluff pieces without mentioning what the Wata CEO supposedly considers serious conflicts of interest.
Nothing Wata puts out should be trusted, given press, or cared about, except in that it deserves mockery and ridicule.
People associated with wata games bought databases that tracked things like variants, rarity, and sale prices including Nintendo life, then shut them down, removing decades of community work that could serve as an independent fact check or comparison tool. Lots of this info, if not all info available at the time of nintendo life's sale, used to exist in freely accessible community form.
By colluding with their auction house, Wata executives have graded and sold their own games between each other for record amounts. These executives have used these record sales as evidence of Wata's grading standards (which shouldn't have any credibility in reality) to push out established players in the grading and collectable auction spaces, and then they get dupes like Ars Technica to put out amazing fluff pieces without mentioning what the Wata CEO supposedly considers serious conflicts of interest.
Nothing Wata puts out should be trusted, given press, or cared about, except in that it deserves mockery and ridicule.
Upvote
26
(26
/
0)
And Action Comics #1 wasn't the first comic book.
It was, however, an important and historically significant comic book, and Super Mario Bros. is indisputably an important and historically significant game.
I'm not sure that's an accurate comparison. You seem to be comparing the first print run of Action Comics #1 to the entire run of Super Mario Bros. The claim isn't that Super Mario Bros. is rare, it's that early copies from a specific production run are rare. (Similarly, it's not the contents of Action Comics #1 that's rare -- I've got at least two reprints of it in my house -- it's that first printing that's rare.)
The total first print run of Action Comics #1 was 200,000 copies. I'm not able to find any precise numbers on how many hang-tab copies of SMB were released with a quick search (which, in itself, is suspicious, and consistent with the allegations that Wata is overstating its rarity), but I wouldn't be surprised if the number was under 200,000.
That's distinct from the total number of copies of Super Mario Bros. released in 1985-1986, which is over a million.
What on Earth is an "unopened copy" of a comic book? Notwithstanding '90s speculation nonsense like Death of Superman shipping in a bag, comics don't generally come in external packaging.
I'm not saying you're wrong that the comparison between SMB and Action Comics #1 is flawed, and based on what I've heard I'm pretty well-convinced that Wata's doing something shady here. But I think the comparisons you're making are a little off-base too.
Upvote
7
(8
/
-1)
At this point, I’m more concerned about the site’s journalistic integrity than the “old games” topic. More articles on Wata or old games aren’t going to repair this newly planted mistrust.
Upvote
-5
(6
/
-11)
Depends on the articles. Well researched articles with sound factual support would certainly dispel unease about editorial side-taking and bias, or worse, ulterior motives. I tend not to give much credence to such arguments, but the best way to deal with glaring omissions is to fill them.
Upvote
17
(17
/
0)
I am not sure anyone would ever want to do that.
Collecting *sealed* games is like collecting *sealed* paintings, never being able to see them.
I understand the speculation; never understood the passion.
Upvote
1
(2
/
-1)
Upvote
13
(14
/
-1)
What would you suggest to restore your faith in the integrity of articles on the site, if not a followup article addressing the specific flaws in this one?
Upvote
11
(12
/
-1)
Print run size has little relevance to the collector's market. It's the surviving copies that matter. Most Action Comics #1 copies (notwithstanding modern reprintings) got thrown away, mulched, or used for kindling.
Similarly, most copies of SMB were opened and the packaging discarded. I'd suspect most of the carts are still around, but there are probably fewer variations between bare carts than packaging.
You would consider it an 'unread copy', free of stress marks on the spine, folds, corner dings, etc. In CGC's population report, there are 2 9.0 Action Comics #1 and 1 8.5, and only 41 in 'Universal' grade, 30 in Restored grade, and 1 in Qualified grade.
Most surviving AC #1s would be considered 'open box' or read copies.
According to Wata's own population reports, there are 157 graded copies of SMB, and 83 of them are 9.0 or better.
Upvote
9
(9
/
0)
There was, but a copy of JetFighter 2 made it collapse.
Just a fun joke there for fans of very awkwardly-shaped boxes.
Upvote
4
(4
/
0)
To be fair, Ars didn't do that with either Hacker X article and decided, instead, to close the comments because Arsians were rightfully unsatisfied on the response (or lack there of) to the criticism levied against the articles.
Upvote
12
(13
/
-1)
Correction: You mean Nintendo Age, not Nintendo Life. Nintendo Age had the game database, and was shut down after being bought. Nintendo Life is a news site and is still running.
https://www.nintendolife.com/
https://web.archive.org/web/20190822122 ... doage.com/
Upvote
6
(6
/
0)
A major wrinkle for Super Mario Bros specifically is that the vast majority of carts were sold as a pack-in title with the console, sometimes as a cart with other titles on it as well, like Duck Hunt. So there often wasn't even a separate sealed box for the cartridge to open and toss.
So that's why, despite the ubiquity of SMB carts, having one in a retail box is rare, let alone still sealed and in mint condition.
Upvote
4
(4
/
0)
Er...but Action Comics #1 isn't "the first comic" either. It's not even close. In this specific respect, the comparison is actually pretty good. Action Comics #1 is valuable because it's the first appearance of Superman, who is probably the best-known comic character full stop. SMB is considered valuable for similar reasons. It's not the first appearance of Mario, but it's really the origin of the Super Mario series of platformers, which is probably the most well-known and successful video game series full stop. You can nitpick about the earlier appearances of Mario, or the fact that the game came out as an arcade machine first, or the fact that it came out earlier in Japan, of course. But for now the people who spend absurd amounts of money on video games have decided the US home console release is where it's at.
Sure, but "unopened" isn't a thing in comics, just grades. All collectibles markets are kinda...notional, in the end. Action Comics #1 is expensive because enough people buy into the logic as to why it should be expensive. SMB is, for now, expensive for similar reasons; enough people buy into the idea that sealed copies are collectible, and earlier prints are more collectible than later ones, to make high quality sealed early print copies valuable. It's only been a few years, and it's still a pretty small bunch of people, so this might still not hold up for the long term, at least at seven figures. Give it a decade or two and we'll see.
Neither WATA nor VGA sells games. People who own the graded games sell them, sometimes using the services of auction houses. Those two copies of SM64 sold in the same Goldin auction, consigned by two different private owners. The WATA-graded copy was a 9.8/A++ which went for around $800k, IIRC. The VGA-graded copy was a 95 which went for $240k. A previous WATA 9.8/A++ had gone for $1.5m at Heritage Auctions.
So, there's a ton to unpick there, but the most obvious thing is that the $1.5m sale was probably an outlier. It happened at the peak of the crazy run-up in the top end of the market, at an HA signature auction which didn't have any notable copies of SMB, which had been the poster child game till that point. It was the first 9.8/A++ SM64 to come up for sale publicly in recent times, and at that point nobody knew if there were any others.
The Goldin auction happened a few months later, when the market had entered its current phase, where it's much less UP AND TO THE RIGHT. Not being the first high-grade copies to market obviously hurt both copies in the auction. Two high-grade copies being in the same auction definitely would've hurt, too (Goldin didn't actually want to run them against each other, apparently, but both sellers insisted).
Personally, I think the biggest 'problem' for the VGA copy was the known population. It's known that there is at least one VGA 95+ SM64 out there - VGA used to give out population numbers for single games on request, and someone kept the report for SM64 from around 2016. So a 95 is *definitely* not the highest-graded VGA copy out there. OTOH, people are pretty sure 9.8/A++ is the highest-graded WATA copy, because WATA almost never gives out 10s and there's no indication at all that there's an SM64 10 lurking anywhere. So this auction was "very likely equal highest graded WATA copy" vs. "definitely not highest graded VGA copy", which is always gonna hurt the latter. People can (and have!) debate endlessly whether the VGA copy was actually in better or worse condition than the WATA one, but to me, that's not really the point - at least some of the high-rollers in the market are clearly just looking at the grade numbers. Add in the fact that WATA has - by fair means or foul - got a lot of publicity momentum, and that's the result you get.
Upvote
1
(2
/
-1)
Don't forget age. Action Comics #1 was printed in 1938, that was 83 years ago. While SMB was released in 1985, 36 years ago. Add in the additional problem of people seem to only be submitting NA copies of the game, so there are even more Japanese and EU copies as well.
Upvote
3
(3
/
0)
A WATA 9.0 isn't considered a very good grade, at least for games with significant populations. A 9.0 of an earlier print of SMB still does decent business because there aren't many of them, but 9.0s of the later 'oval seal' prints went for $20k (9.0/B) and $37k (9.0/A) in October:
https://comics.ha.com/itm/video-games/a/312142-68044.s
https://comics.ha.com/itm/video-games/a/7263-29089.s
which is, you know, still a ton of money, but not 6-7 figures. By comparison, a 9.6/A oval seal went for $84k the same month, and a 9.6/A+ for $144k in July (market was a bit hotter). They haven't sold a 9.8 oval seal since September 2020, that one got $84k, it'd go for a lot more now most likely.
Upvote
2
(2
/
0)
Age will certainly play into it, but I think age is principally just a contributor to rarity and condition. Though something old and rare may be more valuable than something new and rare.
I should clarify that Wata's population report does break down the SMB copies by their category--they've only ever graded 1 'Gloss sticker seal, hangtab'. All the ones I mentioned are in the 'Sealed' category, so it's already the 'rarest' of the SMB categories, and they still have a larger population than AC #1.
They have another category for Complete in Box, which has 278 graded, but the seals are opened or the plastic is gone. Those would be more akin to the 6.0 or lower AC #1s.
Upvote
2
(2
/
0)
Yup. My first Google search after I read this story was "Kyle Orland Wata Staff" to see if there were any formal ties between the two. Ars really dropped the ball on the Hacker X story, and I'm not sure if they know (or care) about the reputational harm they suffered from the journalistic negligence that took place.
Upvote
-1
(3
/
-4)
"Gloss sticker seal" is the second print of the game. The first print was "matte sticker seal" - there are no known still-sealed copies of that print (there are a few CIBs).
That copy is the one that was sold in the private sale from 2019 which kinda kicked off this WATA/HA boom - https://www.ha.com/heritage-auctions-pr ... aseId=3583 . All the copies that have since sold for higher prices are *later* (though still early) prints.
If Halperin and co. had listed the gloss sticker copy at auction this year it would likely have gone completely bananas. I guess the fact they're still hanging on to it means they still reckon the market has more legs long term...
Upvote
2
(2
/
0)
Upvote
3
(3
/
0)
Upvote
8
(8
/
0)
VGA is a quality assurance check built by the community and directly answerable to them.
WATA is one built by a company with no actual love of gaming, attempting to completely control the availability of information (to the extent they destroyed a massive community driven database) and who answer to no one but themselves.
Upvote
0
(1
/
-1)
WATA does not grade Famicom games. VGA does, though. Also, Famicom cartridge games were not sold sealed.
So far, the high-end boom/bubble has indeed been focused almost entirely on US prints. There's some...interesting indicators that this may not always be the case, though.
VGA only grades unsealed games it considers to be "unopened" (which just get a number grade, like a sealed game) or "opened, but not used" (which get a "Q" grade; they don't always offer this service, I think it's shut off at the moment due to backlog). The main way you try and figure out if a game that was sold in an unsealed cardboard box has ever been opened is by examining the 'hinges' on the box flaps very carefully to see if there are creases; it's either almost impossible, or actually impossible, to open a cardboard box without leaving *some* kind of impression there.
VGA-graded "unopened" Japanese copies have been popping up a bit in auctions this year. A couple of Pokemons were sold on eBay (Blue and Gold, IIRC) for 3-4 figures. A Super Mario USA (the Japanese release of US SMB2) and a few others showed up in, I think, a certifiedlink auction.
Unopened copies of significant titles have also been *disappearing* from Japanese marketplaces. At the start of this year you could find unopened SMBs, Pokemons and so on pretty easily, for like low-three-figure US dollar prices. A lot of those listings have gone, though. There are a few regular sellers who are going through inventories of old case packs from liquidated toy stores, and bidding on those copies when they come up is getting noticeably fiercer lately.
Seems like more than one forward-thinking person took a look at the US copies of Japanese games that came out in Japan first going for six figures when the Japanese prints were still available for three figures and thought "hmm"...
Another fun fact: several significant games were actually first released on the Famicom Disk System. FDS games came in sticker-sealed boxes. The first prints of Legend of Zelda and Metroid are sticker-sealed FDS. Prices on those have been going up and copies vanishing, as well...
Upvote
3
(3
/
0)
Back when Nintendoage was still around I recall a very strange series of forum posts asking about "cart variants". A lot of us didn't know quite what to make of what they were asking. The way the posts were phrased, they weren't so much asking WHAT the prices of the variants were worth so much as asking IF they could be "worth more", like how to bring greater focus on something that up to that point, most collectors honestly didn't care all that much about. We told them "well, they're worth whatever interest is already out there" (in various ways) only to get the question rephrased again and again "but what could they be MADE to be worth?". This was about a year before Nintendoage collapsed if I remember right, and sadly I have no links to provide nor images captured. I only thought of it as an oddity at the time. We'd refer them to the Nintendoage database of cart variants and then just asked "which variant is worth more to you?" and left it at that.
For what it's worth, at the time most collectors agreed that if the appearance of the cart varied in a significant way, it was usually worth noting, and if the internal ROM data on the cart were different that certainly could affect value, but generally very tiny font changes and alignment were only "noted" and never a big focus for collectors at the time.
After all, every one of us knew that no matter what, what we were dealing with wasn't the "first run" of most of these games. The Japanese releases were. Heck I went ahead and imported a copy of "Stack Up" (That OTHER ROB game) because it was FAR cheaper than what the much rarer US versions were going for, and the ROM data was literally bit for bit identical between the two versions.
For what it's worth, at the time most collectors agreed that if the appearance of the cart varied in a significant way, it was usually worth noting, and if the internal ROM data on the cart were different that certainly could affect value, but generally very tiny font changes and alignment were only "noted" and never a big focus for collectors at the time.
After all, every one of us knew that no matter what, what we were dealing with wasn't the "first run" of most of these games. The Japanese releases were. Heck I went ahead and imported a copy of "Stack Up" (That OTHER ROB game) because it was FAR cheaper than what the much rarer US versions were going for, and the ROM data was literally bit for bit identical between the two versions.
Upvote
8
(8
/
0)
It seems more like Nintendo Entertainment of Japan is buying them up. Because that's how they roll.
Upvote
-6
(0
/
-6)
Are they actually doing that? Do you have some information for us? That's pretty dire if Nintendo is actually buying their own used games and just- locking them away.
Upvote
3
(3
/
0)
Hard-core high-dollar collecting rarely makes any sense. (at least to me)
Upvote
1
(1
/
0)