New Glenn’s debut will slip into November as NASA decides to not fuel ESCAPADE
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The next Monday, August 9 is in 2027. Blue Origin may be slow, but not that slow.
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Reading between the lines of Blue Origin's response to this reveals a high degree of arrogance which I don't think should go unnoted:
View: https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1832128490625180038
According to that tweet, the original plan was to launch ESCAPADE in October and Blue Ring in December. Yes, just two months between the first two launches on a brand-new launch vehicle. But I'm sure that would have been easy: Blue Origin is one of the most experienced aerospace companies in history, after all, with a wealth of knowledge about launching orbital-class vehicles, quickly responding to unexpected developments, and moving from prototypes to regular operations.
At least, Blue Origin seems to believe all of that about themselves.
Edit: Apparently I'm getting downvoted by people who genuinely believe that New Glenn having its first launch in October and its second launch in December was a completely reasonable and realistic plan. I know, "don't complain about downvotes, you'll just get more," but I don't just want downvotes here: I want everyone who thinks that the second New Glenn launch could plausibly take place two months after its first launch to reply to this comment and explain their reasoning. It's so self-evident, that should be easy, right?
View: https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1832128490625180038
According to that tweet, the original plan was to launch ESCAPADE in October and Blue Ring in December. Yes, just two months between the first two launches on a brand-new launch vehicle. But I'm sure that would have been easy: Blue Origin is one of the most experienced aerospace companies in history, after all, with a wealth of knowledge about launching orbital-class vehicles, quickly responding to unexpected developments, and moving from prototypes to regular operations.
At least, Blue Origin seems to believe all of that about themselves.
Edit: Apparently I'm getting downvoted by people who genuinely believe that New Glenn having its first launch in October and its second launch in December was a completely reasonable and realistic plan. I know, "don't complain about downvotes, you'll just get more," but I don't just want downvotes here: I want everyone who thinks that the second New Glenn launch could plausibly take place two months after its first launch to reply to this comment and explain their reasoning. It's so self-evident, that should be easy, right?
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Captain Dunsel
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
BE-4 engines on New Glenn, right?
BE-7 is the Lunar descent engine.
Sad to hear. I just watched part II of Tim Dodd's tour of B.O. and am excited for a launch.
But I can understand NASA's decision.
BE-7 is the Lunar descent engine.
Sad to hear. I just watched part II of Tim Dodd's tour of B.O. and am excited for a launch.
But I can understand NASA's decision.
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Probably not a real surprise for anyone following this.
It sounds like Blue Origin are committed to launching ESCAPADE whenever reasonably possible. If they honour the heavenly discounted price, even with a long delay it sounds like a win for the mission. Especially considering it was otherwise more or less doomed.
It sounds like Blue Origin are committed to launching ESCAPADE whenever reasonably possible. If they honour the heavenly discounted price, even with a long delay it sounds like a win for the mission. Especially considering it was otherwise more or less doomed.
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And in other surprising news today, scientists have determined that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow morning...
As I pointed out elsewhere, this is a classic Friday afternoon news dump for NASA. But at least this time they did it during business hours.
As I pointed out elsewhere, this is a classic Friday afternoon news dump for NASA. But at least this time they did it during business hours.
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I successfully rolled a trash can to the street this week.
It's not as complex as a rocket stage, but it has more mileage than any Blue Origin orbital hardware. My successes are piling up.
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I want whatever the person/team who originally manifested those two launches within 2-3 months of each other are smoking.
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It's a NET date. It's very much the way NASA does planning. "If everything goes perfectly, how quickly can we do something?" NET dates are not often met, but the point is that the event doesn't occur before that time. I think it's very fair to say the second launch would not have happened before December, after all.
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I expect at least a modicum of realism from NET dates. Granted, one could make the same complaint about Neutron's original "NET 2024" date, and I didn't give Rocket Lab nearly as much shit for this, but at least they have some actual experience which made me feel like they weren't pulling numbers from the air.
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My personal trash delivery vehicle, TRASHCAN-02A is currently sitting at a 100% reuse rate with 0 significant errors after 40 successful deployments. It replaced my previous, smaller TRASHCAN-01A and TRASHCAN-01B delivery vehicles that had roughly 350 successful deployments prior to that. Sometimes they are deployed in tandem with COMPOST-02A which has had a similarly stellar record.
Unfortunately, RECYCLING-01 A B and C have less stellar record and have been known to contribute to orbital debris from time to time. RECYCLING-01A has developed a tear in the envelope, and RECYCLING-01B has developed a crack in the payload fairing.
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If they had used a realistic date for the Blue Ring launch, it wouldn't have been in position to be moved forward to be launched anywhere as soon.
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2021spaceodyssey
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
The tweet from BO is a little confusing... I think they mean the second flight payload(s) will be moved to the first flight now happening in November, and ESCAPADE will launch on the second flight in spring 2025. Is that correct?
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Beck has guided for initial Neutron yearly launch cadence ramp of 1-3-5, similar to what they achieved with Electron. And this is for a smaller, arguably much less complex vehicle than New Glenn from a company (RL) who will have 7-8+ years of orbital operational experience by the time Neutron debuts.
I'm with you here, Blue manifesting these NG missions so close to one another is a real headscratcher. Even if they proceed to successfully get off the Blue Ring NSSL cert mission by November, I believe the new Spring 2025 push-out date for EscaPADE remains questionable at best.
Actually, maybe it's not so much of a headscratcher after all - I think Blue needs to maintain their "credible path" for an NSSL cert launch by EOY, and then actually execute on it (first of 3), in order to qualify for Phase 3 Lane 1 contract opportunities (which is a near-term top priority for them as well as ULA)
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For the big rockets, New Glenn is going to be the last one. Vulcan already flew, Ariane 6 already flew, SuperHeavy already flew and SLS.
Now they are competing with the medium lift rockets that aren't expected to launch until summer 2025 at the earliest, Neutron and Terran-R
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Blue Origin will launch Blue Ring NET November as the first launch. ESCAPADE will launch NET spring 2025, which number of New Glenn that is, or when it will actually have a launch opportunity is up in the air.
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I feel like what must be happening at Blue Origin is that the new CEO, looking to shake things up and make his mark, is applying massive pressure to everyone, who are responding by chucking out paper milestones that they know can’t be achieved in order to keep him happy, and hoping to ride out the storm when everything takes far too long.
Either that, or they genuinely believe their own press that they have prepared everything and it will all go perfectly first time.
Neither is a good thing, at all…
Either that, or they genuinely believe their own press that they have prepared everything and it will all go perfectly first time.
Neither is a good thing, at all…
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I really want to know more about this complex trajectory that gets a Spring 2025 launch opportunity. My limited understanding is that any launch outside the regular windows requires significantly more DeltaV than normal. Is this not the case?
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It is likely at this point that SuperHeavy will land and be caught by chopsticks before New Glenn gets off the pad. Keep up good work, BO, the scent of your accomplishments is very...pungent.
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Scott Manley is speculating a Venus flyby works, but that also puts the spacecraft in Mars orbit in June of 2027 rather than September 2025 as planned. I guess waiting until the 2026 window wouldn't put it in orbit until October 2027, so if the DeltaV works for the 2025 launch that would make sense.
Still. Above everything. I really want Blue Origin to get some orbital flights going. I love what SpaceX has accomplished, and I hope companies like RocketLab can grow into bigger launch vehicles. Watching Blue Origin NOT FLY for so long is discouraging, especially with Vulcan depending on their engines. I wasn't especially thrilled with choosing Dave Limp as CEO after learning he's been running Alexa, but I hope Bezos is kind of taking this seriously. I know they've got good engineers who really want to fly. Again, I love SpaceX, but I'd love a lot more baskets for all the eggs instead of just the one.
Here's hoping they make that first test flight this year and then ESCAPADE works out in the spring.
Still. Above everything. I really want Blue Origin to get some orbital flights going. I love what SpaceX has accomplished, and I hope companies like RocketLab can grow into bigger launch vehicles. Watching Blue Origin NOT FLY for so long is discouraging, especially with Vulcan depending on their engines. I wasn't especially thrilled with choosing Dave Limp as CEO after learning he's been running Alexa, but I hope Bezos is kind of taking this seriously. I know they've got good engineers who really want to fly. Again, I love SpaceX, but I'd love a lot more baskets for all the eggs instead of just the one.
Here's hoping they make that first test flight this year and then ESCAPADE works out in the spring.
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theradicalmoderate
Ars Tribunus Militum
I want to know more about this complex trajectory. Is it a gravity assist of Earth or Venus? Does it actually get the spacecraft to Mars sooner than waiting for December of 2026?
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I think this mischaracterizes Mr Bezos's goals and motivation.
Both of the "serious billionaires" in this process (I have Isacson down as a "supporting billionaire" and Branson as a "pantomime billionaire") have stated goals beyond simple orbit or "making stuff blow up real good". Musk reads as committed to a very extreme goal of a viable second planet of human habitation, and Bezos has frequently brought up his desire to move industry into orbit (to preserve the habitation we already have). I don't expect either of them to live long enough to actually accomplish either goal. But hey, dream on space cowboys.
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It would have been kind to Blue Origin employees to do this before the Labor Day long weekend.
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So per the tweet (which I agree is phrased somewhat confusingly) the first launch (carrying Blue Ring) is now NET November, and the second launch (maybe carrying ESCAPADE, maybe something else) is likely NET next spring? Given the unlikelihood that they pull off a landing on their first try and the announced damage in the factory to parts of their S2 launcher, what are the chances they could even have a second one ready to launch by spring?
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Does the Ars comment section automatically in-line tweets that are posted to one of the third-party repeater sites? Genuine question, if they do, I'll try to remember to switch in the future. But I really like the in-line tweets.
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Blue origin has gone from "we will launch someday, maybe, if we feel like it" to "we will launch tomorrow, twice, with full reuse and a full interplanetary Uber service"
The whiplash is crazy.
Hopefully, they keep some of that can do spirit, but temper in some realism. First launch attempt in 2024 (hopefully) and 2nd by mid 2025. Reuse kind of working for the booster by end of 2025, early 2026...
The whiplash is crazy.
Hopefully, they keep some of that can do spirit, but temper in some realism. First launch attempt in 2024 (hopefully) and 2nd by mid 2025. Reuse kind of working for the booster by end of 2025, early 2026...
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I get a lot more arrogance from your comment than the tweet, to be honest.
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