Is Elon Musk serious about the Tesla Semi?

Elon Musk's masterplan part 2 calls for electric semis, but do they make sense?

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[Frodo Douchebaggins]

Just like the other Tesla products, they don't have to be perfect for every use, they only need to fit enough needs to be worth selling.

Yes, there are a lot of long-haul trucks, which doesn't make sense for this.

But there are also a lot of trucks that just need to move a lot of shit over a fairly short distance because there are no train tracks going right to their door.

 

[Dilbert]

TIL, there exists 'Nikola Motor Company'.

 

[l27]

It's funny that Mercedes put camouflage on a box truck, lol. Ooh, I wonder if it's the amg version.

 

[rick*d]

Frodo Douchebaggins[/url]":1gez2d6r]Just like the other Tesla products, they don't have to be perfect for every use, they only need to fit enough needs to be worth selling.

Yes, there are a lot of long-haul trucks, which doesn't make sense for this.

But there are also a lot of trucks that just need to move a lot of shit over a fairly short distance because there are no train tracks going right to their door.

Oh, hell yes! The Port of Seattle (aka the POS) has no tracks to the docks, so they unload the containers onto trucks and move them from the docks to the tracks, or visa-versa. The trucks go back and forth a few miles at a time and mostly sit idling (because it's better for diesels to idle than to be shut off and turned back on again). In a use profile like that electric trucks make major sense. Then there's the trucks that go from distribution warehouses to area stores. Heck, even UPS may be interested, with all their starting and stopping regenerative braking makes lots of sense for them.

 

[Kurenai]

l27[/url]":vdfx3wbe]It's funny that Mercedes put camouflage on a box truck, lol. Ooh, I wonder if it's the amg version.

This is a fairly common practice for prototypes/not yet released models. Apparently such designs prevents auto magazines from bothering to take photos since they don't look particularly attractive anyway.

Source: I'm from Ann Arbor, there are tons of cars undergoing their pre-release emissions testing at the national lab here.

 

[TomXP411]

Frodo Douchebaggins[/url]":17n8jpig]Just like the other Tesla products, they don't have to be perfect for every use, they only need to fit enough needs to be worth selling.

Yes, there are a lot of long-haul trucks, which doesn't make sense for this.

But there are also a lot of trucks that just need to move a lot of shit over a fairly short distance because there are no train tracks going right to their door.

Yes, I did the math in another comments thread and came to the conclusion that we simply don't have the battery system needed to power a long-haul truck today. What we can power is fairly short range deliveries, and the "spoke" of a hub and spoke delivery system.

 

[Dilbert]

So this picture (rendering)....

http://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/u ... 80x513.jpg


shows what looks like two airplane attitude indicators? Looks like inclinometer and roll meter. Are they common in trucks? Only place I've seen them was in Jeeps on hardcore offroad trails.

Those were made to look like airplane instruments. Teh future is nao! Or something.

 

[tcowher]

Is there a study on air quality impact of "Heavy" trucks in urban environments? I could see electric trucks being great for Expediter or short haul situations and deliveries in urban environments. Like the above commentors for moving from container ships to rail tracks. Or from rail yards to local warehouses and from local warehouse to retail space. Heck you could even install the chargers at the docks for these vehicles and potentially add a reasonable amount of range while unloading or loading.

Not to mention that there are a number of small "lot mover" trucks that could be electric instead of gas or diesel.

 

[chriskrum]

Hot Jupiter[/url]"k58mk6j]As an OTR ruck driver...


The specs need to be at least 1,000 miles...

Need >500 Hp and 450ft-lb.

Until then it's vapor-ware.

The specs given maybe enough for a day-cab for Frito-Lay...


Maybe..

Horse power and torque won't be an issue for electric motors.

Range is the only real issue.

 

[CircleBreaker]

Well Elon Musk is the guys who thinks making regional jets electric is viable, so yeah, he probably is trying to build an electric truck.

 

[slugabed]

Hot Jupiter[/url]":3r59ox16]As an OTR ruck driver...


The specs need to be at least 1,000 miles...

Need >500 Hp and 450ft-lb.

Until then it's vapor-ware.

The specs given maybe enough for a day-cab for Frito-Lay...


Maybe..

Well, the Tesla model S is pretty close to those power specs already, and that's the single motor model. As far as the range goes, if you take out the diesel engine, the fuel tanks and a lot of the hydraulics, I think there's plenty of room for another four or five of the 90kW batteries.

In other words, we're pretty darn close and definitely out of the vaporware area. Just have to make the economics pencil out.

 

[CraigJ ✅]

Wright doesn't think the economics work in favor of electric passenger vehicles. "A Nissan Leaf is twice the price of a Versa and you only save $800 a year," he told Ars, "that's a 20-year payback time."

Factor in the costs of all externalities that are currently unaccounted for in the cost of a vehicle and fuel and get back to me.

 

[Hot Jupiter]

chriskrum[/url]":hkvbhdz0]

Hot Jupiter[/url]":hkvbhdz0]As an OTR ruck driver...


The specs need to be at least 1,000 miles...

Need >500 Hp and 450ft-lb.

Until then it's vapor-ware.

The specs given maybe enough for a day-cab for Frito-Lay...


Maybe..

Horse power and torque won't be an issue for electric motors.

Range is the only real issue.

Just to clarify:

The brushes, wiring and bearings need to be able to handle 80,000+ @ =>500hp and =>450ft-lb...

My bad; good point.

P.S. Up hills..

Yes, I'm talking to you all-of-Applacia and I-17 to and from Phoenix.

 

[Chipotle]

I wonder if the (little used) easy/fast battery replacement feature of the Model S could come into play here for the big trucks? If the battery is easily and quickly swappable, couldn't you have stations for that purpose every five hundred miles (or so), along with battery charging for the swapped out packs? Along the sun-belt, it could even be solar powered (mostly).

 

[RT81]

This is kinda OT, I know this isn't the same kind of truck mentioned in the article, but any sort of electric vehicle with the torque needed to tow and haul interests me.

Where I live, every other truck on the road is a pickup truck. I seriously doubt there will be any sort of meaningful EV penetration in certain parts of the US until Ford/GM/Chrysler/someone managed to develop an electric truck that can compare with gasoline and diesel trucks.

 

[JustQuestions]

Of course they're going for an electric commercial hauler. Hauling is an efficiency game and electric has a huge advantage in that turf. Plus it's green as hell. Imagine thee marketing potential.

If you hit even 40% of the semis in one fell swoop and were able to make them look distinct or have logos on it etc, all the sudden people are seeing them everywhere. Priceless.

There's just too many reasons to list.

 

[Hot Jupiter]

Chipotle[/url]":kqks6q5q]I wonder if the (little used) easy/fast battery replacement feature of the Model S could come into play here for the big trucks? If the battery is easily and quickly swappable, couldn't you have stations for that purpose every five hundred miles (or so), along with battery charging for the swapped out packs? Along the sun-belt, it could even be solar powered (mostly).

What happens when my 500 mile truck is 450 miles into its trip and snow shuts down the road for 2 days?

I have a 1,400 mile range and do not push it past 1,000 for this reason...

Is it doable? Yes...

Are they thinking like a driver? No....

 

[Lonyo]

Chipotle[/url]":6nuvz80x]I wonder if the (little used) easy/fast battery replacement feature of the Model S could come into play here for the big trucks? If the battery is easily and quickly swappable, couldn't you have stations for that purpose every five hundred miles (or so), along with battery charging for the swapped out packs? Along the sun-belt, it could even be solar powered (mostly).

Put batteries in the trailer which can then charge while the trailer is sat idle as well as having cab batteries.

 

[CraigJ ✅]

chriskrum[/url]":ttnp4tlc]

Hot Jupiter[/url]":ttnp4tlc]As an OTR ruck driver...


The specs need to be at least 1,000 miles...

Need >500 Hp and 450ft-lb.

Until then it's vapor-ware.

The specs given maybe enough for a day-cab for Frito-Lay...


Maybe..

Horse power and torque won't be an issue for electric motors.

Range is the only real issue.

The maximum time in a 24 hour period that truck drivers are allowed to drive, according to the FMCSA is 11 hours. At an average of 60MPH that is 660 miles. Call it 750 to have some wiggle room. Not sure how many kWh that equates to for a big ass truck... The average is 6.5MPG for a 18-wheeler. Too tired to do the math, but my guesstimate would be somewhere in the 1,000 kWh range.

 

[aggri1]

(How one burns compressed natural gas and still ends up zero-emissions isn't entirely obvious from Nikola's supplied information.)

Aaargh. Reading 'zero emissions' in relation to that Nikola truck bugs me no end - burning fossil gas cannot be zero emissions (and there's no way they're intending to synthesize methane (or similar) from renewable sources any time in the near future). However, the following does not make the claim that the Nikola is zero emissions, though it is probably intended that a reader makes that incorrect assumption.

Nikola has engineered the holy grail of the trucking industry. We are not aware of any zero emission truck in the world that can haul 80,000 pounds more than 1,000 miles and do it without stopping. The Nikola One requires only 15 minutes of downtime before heading out for the next 1,000 miles

 

[Boskone]

I dunno about long-haul trucks, but it seems to me that (as mentioned above) in- and near-town trucks make a great deal of sense. Or the quarry trucks I used to see a lot back home, full of gravel but only travelling 30min or so to the plant.

An EV box truck might be great for UPS/FedEx box trucks and the like, especially since such vehicles don't need to be sexy so it might be easier to work in quick-change batteries. Drive out, do morning deliveries, come back for a load, head out for the afternoon's work. Those guys do a lot of stopping and starting.

 

[CraigJ ✅]

Hot Jupiter[/url]":tsa1h0pd]

CraigJ[/url]":tsa1h0pd]

chriskrum[/url]":tsa1h0pd]

Hot Jupiter[/url]":tsa1h0pd]As an OTR ruck driver...


The specs need to be at least 1,000 miles...

Need >500 Hp and 450ft-lb.

Until then it's vapor-ware.

The specs given maybe enough for a day-cab for Frito-Lay...


Maybe..

Horse power and torque won't be an issue for electric motors.

Range is the only real issue.

The maximum time in a 24 hour period that truck drivers are allowed to drive, according to the FMCSA is 11 hours. At an average of 60MPH that is 660 miles. Call it 750 to have some wiggle room. Not sure how many kWh that equates to for a big ass truck... The average is 6.5MPG for a 18-wheeler. Too tired to do the math, but my guesstimate would be somewhere in the 1,000 kWh range.

I run team... Air-Freigt... You know.... What gets your Amazon order from California to Cincinnati in less than 36 hours for "free" ...

Want it in 3days?

But please feel free to insult me.

I wasn't aware that numbers and guesses based on Federal regulations and posted speed limits were insults. Feel free to correct me.

But if you insist: Your mom is like a door knob. Everyone gets their turn.

 

[JimboPalmer]

The electric motors are no problem, Haul trucks are all diesel generator - electric wheel motor layout already. (you can add trolley assist like this truck fairly easy)

 

[Scorp1us]

I was doing the math on this. Basically, every 28' of trailer provides 1kw at 20% efficiency. Your typical semi is 56', so that's 2kw of generation from the top of the trailer.

I don't know if that's enough to overcome drag and recharge the battery at the same time. Stop-and-go would suck, but you're probably at peak generation ratio.

I need more numbers on what it actually takes to accelerate a semi. I wasn't able to get good HP numbers, which I don't think is relevant anyway, but the torque is there. It's just a matter of how fast can you charge vs how fast you can drain.

 

[JanneM]

rdnxl[/url]":2bz1ychf]How can it make energy efficiency wise sense to power the electric motor of a truck with electricity, generated by a generator. powered with gas?

To my humble knowledge it would be more efficient to use the combustion energy of the gas directly to propel the vehicle instead of converting it in the first step to electric energy so that in the second step the so produced electric energy can be converted in an electro motor in kinetic energy to propels the truck.

Hybrid vehicles do exactly that of course; with the gasoline and electric drive systems working in tandem to optimize fuel efficiency.

But in this case they're using a gas turbine. They're _really_ efficient, but they're lousy for running a vehicle directly. They really only work well at a single RPM, don't have a power profile that suits driving and they take too long to spin up.

It's not at all inconceivable that a gas turbine and a high-efficiency generator system optimized for that particular turbine could outperform a piston engine even with the losses in the electrical drive train. The Volvo ECC was a concept car with that design about 25 years ago.

 

[Theory240]

UPS already uses electric package cars in some locations...

http://blog.ups.com/2013/02/08/100-elec ... -per-year/

https://sustainability.ups.com/committe ... nd-fleets/

So does FedEx...

http://about.van.fedex.com/newsroom/asi ... -vehicles/

http://about.van.fedex.com/newsroom/glo ... o-the-u-s/

--

 

[Boskone]

rdnxl[/url]":1cviy7m9]How can it make energy efficiency wise sense to power the electric motor of a truck with electricity, generated by a generator. powered with gas?

To my humble knowledge it would be more efficient to use the combustion energy of the gas directly to propel the vehicle instead of converting it in the first step to electric energy so that in the second step the so produced electric energy can be converted in an electro motor in kinetic energy to propels the truck.

Zero emissions by burning gas is of course impossible.

Not really; think about all the other stuff a motor has to move. The motor turns a crankshaft or two, that drives a driveshaft, which is coupled to 1-4 axles; each introduces it's own set of inefficiencies. Plus the motor itself spinning up and down, and spending time outside of it's most efficient range.

With a generator-electric setup, the generator runs at it's optimum rate all the time, feeds electricity through wires (instead of all that mucking about with making metal doodads spin), then the electric motors drive the whole system more efficiently, and probably only runs when the battery needs topping off anyway.

Consider that many (most?) trains are driven by diesel-electric engines. They're bigass rolling diesel generators providing power to electric motors. Trucks are probably more demanding to design (being smaller and having to deal with less controlled conditions), but the basic tech's already in use; I'm guessing it's just now getting small enough to be effectively deployed.

I am kinda ambivalent about the idea of an all-electric long-haul truck, but Musk (and BMW and all those others) have guys who are much better trained at this sort of shit than me. So if they think it can be done...I'll view askance and let them prove it out. More power to 'em.

 

[rick*d]

Chipotle[/url]":2dsbv7h2]I wonder if the (little used) easy/fast battery replacement feature of the Model S could come into play here for the big trucks? If the battery is easily and quickly swappable, couldn't you have stations for that purpose every five hundred miles (or so), along with battery charging for the swapped out packs? Along the sun-belt, it could even be solar powered (mostly).

I believe that is the plan. The battery, or at least an auxiliary battery, goes under the trailer, so the truck gets a fresh battery every time it picks up another load. The battery is charged while the trailer is off-loaded / re-loaded.

 

[rick*d]

Hot Jupiter[/url]":3miavq8v]

Chipotle[/url]":3miavq8v]I wonder if the (little used) easy/fast battery replacement feature of the Model S could come into play here for the big trucks? If the battery is easily and quickly swappable, couldn't you have stations for that purpose every five hundred miles (or so), along with battery charging for the swapped out packs? Along the sun-belt, it could even be solar powered (mostly).

What happens when my 500 mile truck is 450 miles into its trip and snow shuts down the road for 2 days?

I have a 1,400 mile range and do not push it past 1,000 for this reason...

Is it doable? Yes...

Are they thinking like a driver? No....

In your scenario, for 2 days the battery isn't used because the truck isn't moving. Unlike a diesel, an electric doesn't run its motor constantly when it's not moving.

 

[terryy]

The Nikola One could be considered NET zero emission if they use biogas as their fuel. But that stuff isn't exactly common.

 

[Dilbert]

rick*d[/url]":3agsibcy]

Hot Jupiter[/url]":3agsibcy]

Chipotle[/url]":3agsibcy]I wonder if the (little used) easy/fast battery replacement feature of the Model S could come into play here for the big trucks? If the battery is easily and quickly swappable, couldn't you have stations for that purpose every five hundred miles (or so), along with battery charging for the swapped out packs? Along the sun-belt, it could even be solar powered (mostly).

What happens when my 500 mile truck is 450 miles into its trip and snow shuts down the road for 2 days?

I have a 1,400 mile range and do not push it past 1,000 for this reason...

Is it doable? Yes...

Are they thinking like a driver? No....

In your scenario, for 2 days the battery isn't used because the truck isn't moving. Unlike a diesel, an electric doesn't run its motor constantly when it's not moving.

He's just afraid of change. That's all. it is obvious to anyone paying attention.

Big shock awaits in ~10 years (or less?) when most professional driving jobs simply disappear forever.

 

[aaronb1138]

My concern is how heavy are these trucks. Semis with their trailers already account for more than 90% of road wear due to the non-linear relationship of weight to road damange. It's actually looked at by some as a hidden subsidy of the trucking industry since most road work is necessary because of large trucks.

This isn't going to be the 600-1000 lbs increase of a Tesla, we're talking thousands of pounds heavier than existing semis. Even the Tesla S could be looked at as a subsidy since they do around 2x the damage of a 3500 lb luxury sedan at 4700 lbs. These are non-trivial costs to society and the irony is we pay for it with gasoline taxes.

 

[rick*d]

Hot Jupiter[/url]":2383sz52]

rick*d[/url]":2383sz52]

Hot Jupiter[/url]":2383sz52]

Chipotle[/url]":2383sz52]I wonder if the (little used) easy/fast battery replacement feature of the Model S could come into play here for the big trucks? If the battery is easily and quickly swappable, couldn't you have stations for that purpose every five hundred miles (or so), along with battery charging for the swapped out packs? Along the sun-belt, it could even be solar powered (mostly).

What happens when my 500 mile truck is 450 miles into its trip and snow shuts down the road for 2 days?

I have a 1,400 mile range and do not push it past 1,000 for this reason...

Is it doable? Yes...

Are they thinking like a driver? No....

In your scenario, for 2 days the battery isn't used because the truck isn't moving. Unlike a diesel, an electric doesn't run its motor constantly when it's not moving.

But I'm stuck on the road needing heat...

I tap outfor a while..

Fuck you all...

I said the bitch could insult me, not my mother...

A cabin heater that doesn't drain the propulsion battery is just an engineering detail to be worked out. Heck, it could have a propane heater for that matter.

Sorry about the insult. That was rude.

 

[euzeka]

Scorp1us[/url]":yworug0c]I was doing the math on this. Basically, every 28' of trailer provides 1kw at 20% efficiency. Your typical semi is 56', so that's 2kw of generation from the top of the trailer.

I don't know if that's enough to overcome drag and recharge the battery at the same time. Stop-and-go would suck, but you're probably at peak generation ratio.

Huh? No way. 2 kW is about 3 hp. Probably not enough to pull out of a pothole.

Now all we need are semis on autopilot

More seriously, I think the long haul issue could be solved well by catenaries. These would recharge the batteries between local deliveries so there would be no charge downtime and no need to park next to a charging station overnight.