Inside Honda and GM’s new North American hydrogen fuel-cell factory

Stuart Frasier

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Man, those don't hold value well. 2023 models are under $30k, and 2022 to under $20k, which for a car that starts at $49,500 is a pretty huge drop.
They'll cost like 10 grand a year to fuel up to drive 15K miles after the card runs out. It's not shocking that used cars buyers aren't lining up to take on that expense.
 
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skierpage

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Or you generate your own hydrogen on-site.
later, in response to "What's your energy source for doing that?"
In the case of Anglo American, an on-site 3 MW solar array. Im sure you’ll find some other reason to Pooh-pooh now that’s off the table, huh?
You actually wrote in May 2022 "Anglo American will make [hydrogen] on-site using a 3.5 MW electrolyzer, with electricity coming from a 100 MW solar array". I can't find any reports that show it's actually done so. It's clearly possible, but note that Anglo American mines platinum there that's used in fuel cells, so it has an interest in promoting Hydrogen Economy hype in South Africa (searching for updates I found its dumb plan with BMW and Sasol to launch a pilot fleet of BMW iX5 Hydrogen cars, and promoting a South African hydrogen corridor that will "consume 63,000 oz of platinum"). Needing 3x the renewable energy plus electrolyzers and compression and storage results in more expensive operation, and the fuel cell truck is likely much more expensive than battery.

Meanwhile Fortescue Metals mining is trialing a 240 ton mining truck with a 1.4MWh battery, developed with Liebherr and Williams Advanced Engineering. Even though boss Andrew Forrest is bullish on H2, there was a 2023 announcement "Batteries are a better option than hydrogen for mining trucks, say iron-ore miners Fortescue and Rio Tinto", though it seems evaluation is ongoing. And in related news, Moog (not that one) Construction announced a ZQuip modular battery to convert diesel construction equipment.

I think just as happened with cars and is happening with road trucks, battery will outpace hydrogen in heavy-duty construction and mining vehicles.

Edited to add: BHP and Rio Tinto mining companies also choose battery-electric over hydrogen (July 2023 CleanTechnica article), though actual deployments proceed sloooowly.
 
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=j

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It's also "possible" in Hawaii, which has one H2 filling station. Which means that you either are limited to only driving on one of the Hawaiian islands, or you have to take a ferry every time you need to fill the tank. Notably, all four of the major islands have a public electric grid capable of supporting BEVs.

I rather strongly suspect that 47 filling stations isn't enough to support all of California, only some of the major metros, and even within those metros, it's going to be a lot less convenient finding H2 filling stations than folks are used to with the normal gas stations. For comparison California has 7,997 normal gas stations. Just the LA metro area will have a lot more than 47 gas stations. Or for the whole of the US, it's 160,000 gas stations. Only 3,400X deployment scaling left to go!

Unlike with BEVs, where routine charging happens at home and at work, H2 cars need to visit the nearest H2 filling station on a regular basis, not just when attempting 1000 mile long-distance road trips. You probably can't even do a 1000+ mile road-trip with an H2 car, unless two of those California filling stations happen to be 1000+ miles apart. Then you could drive between those two stations, if that happens to be where you want to go. It's hard to see how H2 will cure "range-anxiety".
Just to clarify, there are no ferries between Islands in Hawaii. It is open ocean between islands. You can ship things interisland, but there are no ferries.
 
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kkeane

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H2 pumping stations work great if you're the first one there in at least half an hour, or it'll be slow as hell.
Why do you keep repeating nonsense based on 12-year-old technology? Today's pumps can fill up one H2 car every three minutes.
It's also great that you can pay $200+ a tank of it.
That seems like FUD. DoE says it costs about the same as gasoline today. https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles . And that seems accurate. Filling a Mirai right now at current hydrogen prices is around $80. And that's for a 400 mile range.
Also only an option in California.
In the US, yes. H2 is not going to catch on until trucks move away from Diesel. That will require a nationwide H2 infrastructure.
Versus stop at a roadside charging station and have lunch. Park and plug in at work.
And for a few people, those are viable options.
Hell, if your car's compatible you can get 80% charge in 15 minutes at a Tesla supercharger. Can charge at most places, and the Tesla network on 50,000+ stations is being opened up to most EV brands now.
Another example for making battery cars sound better than they are. You use the worldwide number of Tesla stations, but for H2 stations, you used California. And you still had to add the caveat "if your car is compatible".
 
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kkeane

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Also the capital costs of installing something like a supercharger is comically cheap compared to a hydrogen filling station,
False. A supercharger can only fill up one or two cars per hour, under ideal circumstances.

An H2 station with four dispensers costs about as much as a dozen or so superchargers, but can serve 80 cars per hour.
 
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kkeane

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The thing that makes me think that Syn Fuels are the future of aviation is that it can be introduced completely through industry regulation. Once the fuel is certified we can have a roadmap of increasing the % blend of Syn Fuel and regular aviation fuel, progressively turning the industry carbon neutral. This also gives the Syn Fuel industry time and funding to ramp up production to meet the needs of global aviation.
Realistically, not just aviation. It's the only way to decarbonize road traffic, too.
 
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DDopson

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Why do you keep repeating nonsense based on 12-year-old technology? Today's pumps can fill up one H2 car every three minutes.

That seems like FUD. DoE says it costs about the same as gasoline today. https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles . And that seems accurate. Filling a Mirai right now at current hydrogen prices is around $80. And that's for a 400 mile range.

In the US, yes. H2 is not going to catch on until trucks move away from Diesel. That will require a nationwide H2 infrastructure.

And for a few people, those are viable options.

Another example for making battery cars sound better than they are. You use the worldwide number of Tesla stations, but for H2 stations, you used California. And you still had to add the caveat "if your car is compatible".
That's wildly optimistic. The source you cite includes the phrase, "depending on local incentives", and quotes the H2 price as $13 to $16 / kg with a miles-per-kg of 70, which is more than the mpg for most cars, but not by enough to make up for the cost difference between H2 vs gasoline at $3.3/gallon.

It seems like they are using a car with 14 mpg as their point of comparison, which, sure, if you want to compare fueling cost for a Hummer vs a H2 Mirai, but a fairer comparison point would be a comparable sedan like the 2024 Honda Accord, at 48 mpg, or there's a wide range of sedans that exceed 35 mpg, all of which are significantly cheaper to fuel than the H2 Mirai. When compared against a 35 mpg car, the Mirai's fueling cost is the equivalent of $8/gallon, in the limited locations where you can even buy H2 at all.

Or for less capital cost than a H2 vehicle, we can build a BEV that has order-of-magnitude lower fueling costs, which means that the BEV's excess capital cost over an ICE vehicle pays for itself when driven more than X miles. And unlike H2 vehicles, the price for BEV powertrains has been decreasing y/yr, such that BEV will eventually converge with and then fall below the purchase cost of an ICE vehicle. At the point where a BEV is cheaper to purchase than an ICE vehicle, and has lower fueling cost, it will be an irresistible option for most commuting vehicles and most fleet vehicles.
 
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steelcobra

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Why do you keep repeating nonsense based on 12-year-old technology? Today's pumps can fill up one H2 car every three minutes.

That seems like FUD. DoE says it costs about the same as gasoline today. https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles . And that seems accurate. Filling a Mirai right now at current hydrogen prices is around $80. And that's for a 400 mile range.

In the US, yes. H2 is not going to catch on until trucks move away from Diesel. That will require a nationwide H2 infrastructure.

And for a few people, those are viable options.

Another example for making battery cars sound better than they are. You use the worldwide number of Tesla stations, but for H2 stations, you used California. And you still had to add the caveat "if your car is compatible".
That's not what actual Mirai owners are saying.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebbJTT5e9wY


There will be no "nationwide H2 infrastructure" because it's already dying in California. There are no H2 stations outside California in the contiguous US, and the number of stations there is regressing.
 
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DDopson

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That's wildly optimistic. The source you cite includes the phrase, "depending on local incentives", and quotes the H2 price as $13 to $16 / kg with a miles-per-kg of 70, which is more than the mpg for most cars, but not by enough to make up for the cost difference between H2 vs gasoline at $3.3/gallon.

It seems like they are using a car with 14 mpg as their point of comparison, which, sure, if you want to compare fueling cost for a Hummer vs a H2 Mirai, but a fairer comparison point would be a comparable sedan like the 2024 Honda Accord, at 48 mpg, or there's a wide range of sedans that exceed 35 mpg, all of which are significantly cheaper to fuel than the H2 Mirai. When compared against a 35 mpg car, the Mirai's fueling cost is the equivalent of $8/gallon, in the limited locations where you can even buy H2 at all.

Or for less capital cost than a H2 vehicle, we can build a BEV that has order-of-magnitude lower fueling costs, which means that the BEV's excess capital cost over an ICE vehicle pays for itself when driven more than X miles. And unlike H2 vehicles, the price for BEV powertrains has been decreasing y/yr, such that BEV will eventually converge with and then fall below the purchase cost of an ICE vehicle. At the point where a BEV is cheaper to purchase than an ICE vehicle, and has lower fueling cost, it will be an irresistible option for most commuting vehicles and most fleet vehicles.
Regarding the ongoing transition to BEV technology, here's one forward-looking sales projection:

1706632995001.png


That's just a prediction, and the real transition rate could be faster, slower, or more uneven.

My broader point is that it's no longer particularly controversial to predict that today's 16% BEV market share will grow to 68% by 2035. Maybe that's the wrong year, maybe it happens faster in Asia and the EU than in the US, but the sales growth is almost inevitable at this point based on how the technology costs are trending. Let's go with their prediction of 68% in 2035. That will still leave millions of existing ICE vehicles on the road, but with the average car lifespan being about 12 years, we can expect that by 2047, >>68% of new sales are BEV and more than half of all cars prior to 2035 have been retired. Back of the envelope, this suggests that by 2047, most vehicles on the road would be BEVs.

Which means that only a small fraction of drivers still need to visit gas stations and there's probably not enough revenue to support our existing gas fueling economy at its current scale. Yes, gas stations make a huge fraction of their profits from convenience store sales, but gas is the low-margin loss-leader that brings those customers in the door. Some stations may attract BEV drivers, but unlike gas fueling, electric charging stations can be installed anywhere, include your grocery store, shopping mall, office complex, at home, etc, so gas stations have no special advantage at attracting BEV customers, either for charging, or for convenience store purchases. Why go to the legacy gas station, when you can visit that CVS that's a little bit closer and a lot nicer?

Point is, by mid-century, we should expect to see waves of gas station closures in the locations where they can't make the economics work on a smaller customer base. For consumers, this will make gasoline relatively harder to find. The "range anxiety" question may invert, with charging infrastructure becoming as ubiquitous as our electric grid while gas fueling infrastructure becomes increasingly inconvenient and inconsistent, not to mention much more expensive per mile driven. This will drive complete migration as nobody wants to be the last gas-consumer on the road, buying their fuel in drums from Amazon.com.

If folks are planning for a 2050 hydrogen revolution, deployment into that reality is going to be an even more daunting challenge than converting today's sprawling network of gas fueling infrastructure. H2 doesn't make sense yet -- Mirai is too expensive w/o subsidies, H2 is too expensive w/o subsidies, and there's a massive chicken-and-egg problem with only a few dozen cars and a whopping 48 fueling stations. Every year that goes by without the H2 transition kicking off in earnest is a year closer to the 2050 reality where there's fewer and fewer surviving gas stations available to be converted, and more and more the consumer base has already reached comfort with the routine of home/office charging for commuting and supercharging for their road trips. Once converted to a BEV lifestyle, the idea of needing to make a special trip to a fueling station seems really inconvenient.
 
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sbradford26

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Why do you keep repeating nonsense based on 12-year-old technology? Today's pumps can fill up one H2 car every three minutes.

That seems like FUD. DoE says it costs about the same as gasoline today. https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles . And that seems accurate. Filling a Mirai right now at current hydrogen prices is around $80. And that's for a 400 mile range.

In the US, yes. H2 is not going to catch on until trucks move away from Diesel. That will require a nationwide H2 infrastructure.

And for a few people, those are viable options.

Another example for making battery cars sound better than they are. You use the worldwide number of Tesla stations, but for H2 stations, you used California. And you still had to add the caveat "if your car is compatible".

Saying hydrogen costs about the same as gasoline and then saying $80 to fill up a Mirai to go 400 miles are not really compatible. A Toyota camry hybrid has a range of 686 miles with a 13.2 gallon tank. At $6 a gallon you get $79.2 to fill up. That is assuming hydrogen is $16 when actual people are filling up at between $27 and $36 a kg and check gas buddy gas is currently right around $4 a gallon in Los Angeles.
 
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real mikeb_60

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That's not what actual Mirai owners are saying.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebbJTT5e9wY


There will be no "nationwide H2 infrastructure" because it's already dying in California. There are no H2 stations outside California in the contiguous US, and the number of stations there is regressing.

Definitely, for light duty vehicles fueled at random publicly-available sites, BEV has won at least this stage of the war - more than one battle. On the captive, centrally-fueled front, there are still some H2 users, but even there over the years simply burning the natural gas in the vehicles, rather than going through the H2 production step in order to use very expensive, experimental (for the most part) fuel cells, has been far more popular. For one thing, most major urban areas (and hence transit and other distribution vehicle depots) have piped natural gas available. They also have electricity, of course, and many depots are phasing in BEV buses and delivery trucks.

There are, btw, commercially-available stationary fuel cells that do not need to be supplied with H2 directly. They can fueled with common hydrocarbons like methane (natural gas) and even diesel. They're notably more fuel-efficient than large diesel engines, and in combined-cycle setups that also use the (considerable) waste heat can achieve impressive overall system efficiencies. Unfortunately, they're still expensive, and the companies making them always seem to be losing money (and somehow remaining in business). The military has been a user of them due to their flexible fueling capability. Obviously, since they use hydrocarbon fuels rather than straight H2, they have CO2 emissions, but due to their efficiency they emit far less than stationary engines. Not suitable for wheeled vehicles, though. Some legacy fuel cell companies have branched out into H2 production, too (see e.g. Fuel Cell Energy and Plug Power - speculative investments at best).
 
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Regarding the ongoing transition to BEV technology, here's one forward-looking sales projection:

View attachment 73119

That chart is linear, so I can already tell you it's severely underestimating how fast this transition will be. The last ICE vehicle will probably be made in 2028. (at least when it comes to that category of vehicles)
 
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False. A supercharger can only fill up one or two cars per hour, under ideal circumstances.

An H2 station with four dispensers costs about as much as a dozen or so superchargers, but can serve 80 cars per hour.
You continue to be completely full of shit, I see. There are no hydrogen stations in the US that can do this, and I assume none elsewhere either. If you're reading brochures from companies claiming to sell hydrogen filling stations like this, you'll find, if you pry, that they haven't sold any and won't sell any "yet".
 
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Isildur981

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Turbofrog

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That chart is linear, so I can already tell you it's severely underestimating how fast this transition will be. The last ICE vehicle will probably be made in 2028. (at least when it comes to that category of vehicles)
This is perhaps the dumbest claim you've ever made, and you've made a lot of dumb claims.

As much as you or I might desperately wish that it were so, in the real world there is a zero (0) percent chance that the last ICE vehicle is made in 2028. That's 4 years from now.

...Though I suppose there's the outside chance that all humanity dies in a fiery apocalypse of nuclear fire in 2028 if China and the US go to war over Taiwan and things go badly. So maybe there's a 0.01% chance that 2028 is the year the last ICE vehicle is made.
 
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This is perhaps the dumbest claim you've ever made, and you've made a lot of dumb claims.

As much as you or I might desperately wish that it were so, in the real world there is a zero (0) percent chance that the last ICE vehicle is made in 2028. That's 4 years from now.

...Though I suppose there's the outside chance that all humanity dies in a fiery apocalypse of nuclear fire in 2028 if China and the US go to war over Taiwan and things go badly. So maybe there's a 0.01% chance that 2028 is the year the last ICE vehicle is made.

Are you willing to bet money on that claim? I acknowledge there's a high chance I might be wrong here, but I'm still willing to die on this hill.

And by the way I'm not including big vehicles, like pick up trucks and above (that could take a few years longer to transition), but anything the size of a model Y and below is game. I'll put 50 dollars on it. (I'm gonna have a few bets that hinge on exponential trends continuing for the remainder of the decade if other people start taking them BTW)

No one took my bet in 2022 that the Tesla model Y would become the best selling vehicle in the world in 2023, even though there were zero electric vehicles in the top 10 best selling vehicle list in 2020. But here we are:

Worlds-Top-3-in-2023-2-scaled.png


I got called a 'bullshiter', and a 'fucking liar' in another thread just about a month or two ago, just for saying that the Tesla model Y was the best selling vehicle in the world. I'm pretty sure I'm not gonna get an apology for that one, but maybe if there's a little money on the line, the people talking shit about me might just be incentivized to remember.

It would be a very smart bet to take. Afterall, companies that sell ICE vehicles today are still at the top of the world in 2024 (like Toyota) so the chances that I'm wrong about the specific year are actually very high, (even though by 2030, there's very little chance I would be wrong, I'm still willing to stick to just 2028) So, are you up for it?

Here's a draft of the bet, but we can still tweak it:


The Bet:
I, Kamus, hereby propose a bet concerning the future of vehicle production on a global scale by the year 2028. The specific claim of this bet is as follows:

"By the end of the year 2028, there will be no new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles being produced at scale that are the size of the Tesla Model Y or smaller, with the industry having fully transitioned to the production of electric vehicles in this category."

Definitions:
  • Vehicles the Size of the Tesla Model Y or Smaller: Refers to any passenger vehicles including, but not limited to, sedans, hatchbacks, and small SUVs, which are comparable in size to the Tesla Model Y or smaller.
  • Produced at Scale: Means mass production of vehicles, implying manufacturing and availability on a global commercial scale, not limited to prototype or limited-run production.
  • Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles: Refers to vehicles powered by a traditional gasoline or diesel engine.
  • Electric Vehicles: Refers to vehicles powered solely by electric batteries.

Conditions:
1. The bet is based on publicly available information and recognized industry reports from sources like JATO, Statista, or other reliable sources as of December 31, 2028.
2. The evaluation will consider global vehicle production in the defined size category, not restricted to specific markets or regions.
3. If, as of December 31, 2028, any new ICE vehicles within the defined size category are still being produced at scale, I will have lost the bet.

Stake and Settlement:
  • The stake for this bet is $50, or its equivalent in Bitcoin, based on the current exchange rate.
  • This amount will be held in a mutually agreed-upon digital wallet or escrow service.
  • The winner will be determined based on the production status of vehicles as of December 31, 2028, verified by early 2029 using data from reliable sources.
  • Upon verification, the staked amount (which may have appreciated or depreciated in value) will be released to the winner.

Acceptance:
To accept this bet, the other party must verbally agree to the terms as stated. This agreement is based on mutual trust and understanding. Both parties agree to rely on the honor system, without requiring formal written documentation, and will wait for the release of the official vehicle production data from reliable sources before concluding the bet and proceeding to the settlement phase.


EDIT: I just realized that this bet doesn't define what a 'hybrid' would qualify as. But we can think of ways to defining it as either an ICE vehicle, or an actual hybrid depending on the size of the battery.

EDIT #2: I just realized that the language of the bet is also incorrect, because by 2028 ICE vehicles would STILL be in production. That's the last year I expect the last ICE vehicles to be sold, so here's the newest draft, which again, we could still fine tune if you also find any problems that I might not be taking into account) This realization does mean we would probably have to wait until 2030 to know if any ICE vehicles were still sold during 2029. (or we could even say Q1 2029? again, this wouldn't be final, it's just a draft) anyway, here's the newest draft for now:

The Bet:
I, Kamus, propose a bet regarding the cessation of production of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. The specific claim is:

"By the beginning of the year 2029, the production of new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, comparable in size to the Tesla Model Y or smaller, will have ceased. This means that throughout the year 2029, no new ICE vehicles in this size category will enter production."

Definitions:
  • Vehicles the Size of the Tesla Model Y or Smaller: Passenger vehicles including sedans, hatchbacks, and small SUVs, comparable in size to the Tesla Model Y or smaller.
  • Produced at Scale: Mass production of vehicles, ensuring manufacturing and availability on a global commercial scale.
  • Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles: Vehicles powered by traditional gasoline or diesel engines.

Conditions:
1. The bet is based on publicly available information and industry reports from sources like JATO, Statista, or other reliable sources, with data for the year 2029.
2. The evaluation will consider global vehicle production in the defined size category for the entirety of 2029.
3. If any new ICE vehicles within the defined size category are produced at any time during the year 2029, I will have lost the bet.

Stake and Settlement:
  • The stake for this bet is $50, or its equivalent in Bitcoin, based on the current exchange rate.
  • This amount will be held in a mutually agreed-upon digital wallet or escrow service.
  • The winner will be determined based on vehicle production data for the year 2029, verified in early 2030 using data released in 2029.
  • Upon verification, the staked amount will be released to the winner.

Acceptance:
To accept this bet, the other party must verbally agree to the terms as stated, based on mutual trust and understanding. Both parties agree to rely on the honor system and wait for the release of official vehicle production data for 2029 before concluding the bet and proceeding to the settlement phase in early 2030.

We would still need to figure out how to define hybrids, I personally consider them gas vehicles, but if the battery size is big enough, we could consider them hybrids instead. (again... nothing would be finalized until we both agreed that it looks good)
 
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Yeah, exponential growth is nice. But growth is usually not exponential - it is logistic. See Norway. Norway is the leader at EV sales with 90% of new cars being EV of some sort. A percentage that grows slowly now. Yeah, they might be ~100% EV in some years. But global average is only 16% right now, add 5 years (from now till the end of 2028) and it is likely EVs overtake ICEs. But it is next to impossible to get 0% ICE worldwide.

Out of all relevant countries/blocs only China is a little bit plausible to ban/phase out ICE entirely so fast, given their EV presence that is likely to grow further in the coming years (they would be doing the patriotic thing and kicking out foreign cars in the name of clean environment). But even that is fairly unlikely. That EU gets above 90% EVs by the end of 2028 is in my opinion unlikely too. And 90% of EV market share is still a long way from "ICE is nonexistent in new cars". And that's for EU - USA is lagging behind right now and countries like India, Russia or Brazil are even less likely to ditch ICE completely.

Of course, if you were to claim "no reasonably high volume car in 2028 is going to come only in an ICE variant", yeah, it is very reasonable that all ICE will be getting PHEV counterpart for a bit more money. It is even possible that there is no new model of ICE car developed after the deadline - with all the fresh models being only PHEV or BEV, no ICE variant. Especially as the deadlines loom.
But that there are no older models still being sold in meaningful numbers? Not a chance. Especially with many signs pointing to traditional car companies struggling with transition to EV, Tesla struggling to maintain growth and there is no chance that EU and USA simply let China flood their car market. They let that for solar cells, but too many people work for auto industry to just roll over.

About the only thing that would let your prediction come true is a massive battery breakthrough. Or, heck, a massive hydrogen storage breakthrough.
 
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Stuart Frasier

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That's wildly optimistic. The source you cite includes the phrase, "depending on local incentives", and quotes the H2 price as $13 to $16 / kg with a miles-per-kg of 70, which is more than the mpg for most cars, but not by enough to make up for the cost difference between H2 vs gasoline at $3.3/gallon.
Hydrogen is currently $36 per kg in California. The Mirai holds 5.6kg. 5.6 x $36 is $201.60. Kkeane tells easily disputed lies and continues to tell them after he has been corrected. There is no point engaging with him.
 
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