This is perhaps the dumbest claim you've ever made, and you've made a lot of dumb claims.
As much as you or I might desperately wish that it were so, in the real world there is a zero (0) percent chance that the last ICE vehicle is made in 2028. That's 4 years from now.
...Though I suppose there's the outside chance that all humanity dies in a fiery apocalypse of nuclear fire in 2028 if China and the US go to war over Taiwan and things go badly. So maybe there's a 0.01% chance that 2028 is the year the last ICE vehicle is made.
Are you willing to bet money on that claim? I acknowledge there's a high chance I might be wrong here, but I'm
still willing to die on this hill.
And by the way I'm not including big vehicles, like pick up trucks and above (that could take a few years longer to transition), but anything the size of a model Y and below is game. I'll put 50 dollars on it. (I'm gonna have a few bets that hinge on exponential trends continuing for the remainder of the decade if other people start taking them BTW)
No one took my bet in 2022 that the Tesla model Y would become the best selling vehicle in the world in 2023, even though there were
zero electric vehicles in the top 10 best selling vehicle list in 2020. But here we are:
I got called a 'bullshiter', and a 'fucking liar' in another thread just about a month or two ago, just for saying that the Tesla model Y was the best selling vehicle in the world. I'm pretty sure I'm not gonna get an apology for that one, but maybe if there's a little money on the line, the people talking shit about me might just be incentivized to remember.
It would be a very smart bet to take. Afterall, companies that sell ICE vehicles today are
still at the top of the world in 2024 (like Toyota) so the chances that I'm wrong about the specific year are actually
very high, (even though by 2030, there's
very little chance I would be wrong, I'm still willing to stick to just 2028) So, are you up for it?
Here's a draft of the bet, but we can still tweak it:
The Bet:
I, Kamus, hereby propose a bet concerning the future of vehicle production on a global scale by the year 2028. The specific claim of this bet is as follows:
"By the end of the year 2028, there will be no new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles being produced at scale that are the size of the Tesla Model Y or smaller, with the industry having fully transitioned to the production of electric vehicles in this category."
Definitions:
- Vehicles the Size of the Tesla Model Y or Smaller: Refers to any passenger vehicles including, but not limited to, sedans, hatchbacks, and small SUVs, which are comparable in size to the Tesla Model Y or smaller.
- Produced at Scale: Means mass production of vehicles, implying manufacturing and availability on a global commercial scale, not limited to prototype or limited-run production.
- Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles: Refers to vehicles powered by a traditional gasoline or diesel engine.
- Electric Vehicles: Refers to vehicles powered solely by electric batteries.
Conditions:
1. The bet is based on publicly available information and recognized industry reports from sources like JATO, Statista, or other reliable sources as of December 31, 2028.
2. The evaluation will consider global vehicle production in the defined size category, not restricted to specific markets or regions.
3. If, as of December 31, 2028, any new ICE vehicles within the defined size category are still being produced at scale, I will have lost the bet.
Stake and Settlement:
- The stake for this bet is $50, or its equivalent in Bitcoin, based on the current exchange rate.
- This amount will be held in a mutually agreed-upon digital wallet or escrow service.
- The winner will be determined based on the production status of vehicles as of December 31, 2028, verified by early 2029 using data from reliable sources.
- Upon verification, the staked amount (which may have appreciated or depreciated in value) will be released to the winner.
Acceptance:
To accept this bet, the other party must verbally agree to the terms as stated. This agreement is based on mutual trust and understanding. Both parties agree to rely on the honor system, without requiring formal written documentation, and will wait for the release of the official vehicle production data from reliable sources before concluding the bet and proceeding to the settlement phase.
EDIT: I just realized that this bet doesn't define what a 'hybrid' would qualify as. But we can think of ways to defining it as either an ICE vehicle, or an actual hybrid depending on the size of the battery.
EDIT #2: I just realized that the language of the bet is also incorrect, because by 2028 ICE vehicles would STILL be in production. That's the last year I expect the last ICE vehicles to be sold, so here's the newest draft, which again, we could still fine tune if you also find any problems that I might not be taking into account) This realization does mean we would probably have to wait until
2030 to know if any ICE vehicles were still sold during 2029. (or we could even say Q1 2029? again, this wouldn't be final, it's just a draft) anyway, here's the newest draft for now:
The Bet:
I, Kamus, propose a bet regarding the cessation of production of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. The specific claim is:
"By the beginning of the year 2029, the production of new Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles, comparable in size to the Tesla Model Y or smaller, will have ceased. This means that throughout the year 2029, no new ICE vehicles in this size category will enter production."
Definitions:
- Vehicles the Size of the Tesla Model Y or Smaller: Passenger vehicles including sedans, hatchbacks, and small SUVs, comparable in size to the Tesla Model Y or smaller.
- Produced at Scale: Mass production of vehicles, ensuring manufacturing and availability on a global commercial scale.
- Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles: Vehicles powered by traditional gasoline or diesel engines.
Conditions:
1. The bet is based on publicly available information and industry reports from sources like JATO, Statista, or other reliable sources, with data for the year 2029.
2. The evaluation will consider global vehicle production in the defined size category for the entirety of 2029.
3. If any new ICE vehicles within the defined size category are produced at any time during the year 2029, I will have lost the bet.
Stake and Settlement:
- The stake for this bet is $50, or its equivalent in Bitcoin, based on the current exchange rate.
- This amount will be held in a mutually agreed-upon digital wallet or escrow service.
- The winner will be determined based on vehicle production data for the year 2029, verified in early 2030 using data released in 2029.
- Upon verification, the staked amount will be released to the winner.
Acceptance:
To accept this bet, the other party must verbally agree to the terms as stated, based on mutual trust and understanding. Both parties agree to rely on the honor system and wait for the release of official vehicle production data for 2029 before concluding the bet and proceeding to the settlement phase in early 2030.
We would still need to figure out how to define hybrids, I personally consider them gas vehicles, but if the battery size is big enough, we could consider them hybrids instead. (again... nothing would be finalized until we both agreed that it looks good)