"It has been a great privilege to lead ULA through its transformation and to bring Vulcan into service."
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This has gotta be most of the reason.Not surprising that Tory is gone. Ten Vulcan launches promised for 2025 and just one launch delivered. Even the screwups at Boeing (Starliner) and at Lockheed (Orion and its defective heatshield and at $25B and counting) evidently have had enough of him.
Blue Origin needs to fly either 2 or 4 more successful flights before they can bid for National Security Space Launch contracts. After that, yeah ULA is down to launching already sold flights.This has gotta be most of the reason.
ULA didn't just fall short of its expected launch cadence -- it barely launched at all.
With SpaceX now launching 2-3 times a week sometimes, and BO now successfully landing rockets, I'm starting to wonder why ULA even exists anymore, outside of honoring their already-scheduled launches on older rockets.
Your comment is being downvoted, but I think it is directionally correct. Vulcan was years late, and then the Space Force publicly called ULA out for its failure to build up the capacity for a high flight rate. Just a single launch this year, with ongoing rumors of SRB issues, was likely the final straw.Not surprising that Tory is gone. Ten Vulcan launches promised for 2025 and just one launch delivered. Even the screwups at Boeing (Starliner) and at Lockheed (Orion and its defective heatshield and at $25B and counting) evidently have had enough of him.
"already sold flights" constitute a backlog of over 80 launches and a combined value of over $10B. A backlog several times larger than anything they've had at any point in their existence. They'll survive, for now.Blue Origin needs to fly either 2 or 4 more successful flights before they can bid for National Security Space Launch contracts. After that, yeah ULA is down to launching already sold flights.
I honestly don't see this as a surprise.Definitely unexpected. Of course, now we're all wondering what the new opportunity is and if Tory was pushed or left on his own accord. ULA has a very uncertain future, with or without Tory at the helm. Hopefully he turns up somewhere where he can make a difference and isn't hamstrung by short sighted corporate overlords.
Pretty sure he was pushed. Although the failure of the Vulcan program to scale launch cadence this year certainly left him vulnerable to corporate backstabbing. I suspect if ULA had managed somewhere between 6 to 10 successful Vulcan launches in 2025, that his job would have been a lot more secure.Definitely unexpected. Of course, now we're all wondering what the new opportunity is and if Tory was pushed or left on his own accord. ULA has a very uncertain future, with or without Tory at the helm. Hopefully he turns up somewhere where he can make a difference and isn't hamstrung by short sighted corporate overlords.
The delay in Vulcan was BOs fault mostly though. Centaur V was planned to be delivered in 2023, the delay in BE-4 caused them to cancel the Centaur III Vulcan and go straight to V. I guess you could say the snafu with Centaur V testing was responsible for another 6 months ish.Your comment is being downvoted, but I think it is directionally correct. Vulcan was years late, and then the Space Force publicly called ULA out for its failure to build up the capacity for a high flight rate. Just a single launch this year, with ongoing rumors of SRB issues, was likely the final straw.
ya and then vulcan itself is basically the only new disposable rocket. Thing is, the dude is genuinely smart, he's just forced into this constraint by the company he runs where he's allowed none of the budget for R&D that it would take to build a new rocket from scratch.Not surprising that he’s out. Dude has been in denial that that the launch industry has changed. For years he insisted that reusable rockets weren’t possible, or that they didn’t make economic sense.
I’ll also just leave this sequence of tweets over here:
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Tory worked hard and had good ideas but ULA's owners were actively hostile to any kind of modernization or diversification effort that might threaten their primary space divisions. That he was allowed to build Vulcan at all was a minor miracle.It’s interesting that we hear very little out of ULA besides Tory. So it’s hard to know what to make of this. My impression is he was trying reasonably hard to keep the company viable, even though the owners seemed like they probably gave up years ago. I wonder if the Amazon launch deal will really happen when they are so slow though.
even after russian engines became impossible to source the shareholders still balked at the cost to build a new rocket.Tory worked hard and had good ideas but ULA's owners were actively hostile to any kind of modernization or diversification effort that might threaten their primary space divisions. That he was allowed to build Vulcan at all was a minor miracle.
A decade ago, sure, but I wouldn't blame him if he's burned out. The last few years have been hard on him.id really like to see him head of the next space station tbh. given the right resources I think he could do much better. ULA was always a cash box for the shareholders. they held him back
I doubt seriously that was his role - that would have been up to ULA’s owners. Noise was that LM was willing to sell at a viable price, but Boeing wasn’t.I'm sure his most recent task was to get the company sold. He did not.
I followed that series of posts. Someone else responded that SpaceX mounts the controllers, fluid management, and TVC on the booster. So it wasn’t the dunk people made it out to be.Not surprising that he’s out. Dude has been in denial that that the launch industry has changed. For years he insisted that reusable rockets weren’t possible, or that they didn’t make economic sense.
I’ll also just leave this sequence of tweets over here:
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Really hard to see any conceivable path where they survive at all, whether or not anyone at Lockmart/Boeing leadership wants to say it out loud yet. But to the extent they ever had any window it sure looks closed. SpaceX of course is SpaceX. But with not just Blue Origin but also Rocket Lab and other players having medium to medium-heavy lift rockets either launched or credibly getting close, and all designed for at least partial reusability, trying to start a new rocket now looks hopeless for an American effort. Other countries or groups of countries might well see enough value in trying to secure some sovereign path to space as to be worth long term subsidies/investment even if not directly price competitive, but that's not going to fly here once we've already got 3+ vibrant young competitors. And as we saw with Boeing and Starliner, there seem to be really root organization structural issues that come from orienting around traditional cost-plus contracting for so long that make it incredibly difficult even with good intentions to try to compete on fixed price. It's hard to see either of those companies wanting to sink any more capital into it. And that sure seems to mean that yeah, writing is on the wall.They'll need a new rocket if they survive at all
There are a number of disposable rockets newly arrived or in development - just not in the US. (There have been a couple of recent - as in last few years - small disposables in the US, but they were either stillborn or are unlikely to be successful commercially.). In most(?) cases, these non-US rockets are part of national programs (or international in the case of ESA), which (sort of like here, with SLS) still operate on legacy paradigms, or they are from startups targeting (at least initially) small to very small capacity, which due to the weight penalty of reusability, aren’t good candidates for it.ya and then vulcan itself is basically the only new disposable rocket. Thing is, the dude is genuinely smart, he's just forced into this constraint by the company he runs where he's allowed none of the budget for R&D that it would take to build a new rocket from scratch.
Are those orders ironclad? They may cancel because of failure to deliver and go to cheaper and more secure launches with SpaceX - or if they have Musk Derangement Syndrome then with BO, and eventually a few others (depending on the size of the payload)."already sold flights" constitute a backlog of over 80 launches and a combined value of over $10B. A backlog several times larger than anything they've had at any point in their existence. They'll survive, for now.