Hurricane Patricia the strongest ever seen in Western Hemisphere

"Potentially catastrophic" storm set to hit Mexico this afternoon.

Read the whole story

 

[GenericAnimeBoy]

Solidstate89[/url]":27igpcr0]I know I shouldn't laugh at stuff like this, but it amuses me to no end to hear stuff like "Patricia is ravaging the Pacific Coast" because it happens to be my Mom's name.

Yes yes, I'm a horrible person. I hope anyone in the way of the hurricane can either get the hell out of the way and/or find adequate shelter.

I know what you mean. My brother's name is Andrew.

 

[Statistical]

SixDegrees[/url]":144a0qy0]

Fatesrider[/url]":144a0qy0]

SixDegrees[/url]":144a0qy0]

grizzlyaddams[/url]":144a0qy0]Glacial recession? Vastly increased frequency and severity of natural disasters? Seasons differing across the globe? Especially the past few years? Largest storm ever tracked?

Nothing to see here.

Edit: Are the down votes because I didn't add a "/s" or what?

Actually, Patricia isn't a particularly large hurricane. Just a particularly powerful one.

UNiquely powerful, it would seem.

After checking the records, I was mistaken in my belief that 200 MPH+ SUSTAINED winds are common in tropical cyclones of the western pacific. I apparently made the mistake of assuming the reports were of sustained winds, but when I double checked, I discovered my mistake. Gusts over 200 MPH are far more frequent than them lasting for the 10 minutes it takes to qualify as sustained winds

Sometimes I hate the sensationalism and false impressions some media outlets seem addicted to. Ars was far more restrained in its headline than most other outlets.

By all accounts, the wind speed of Patricia isn't only the highest of the Western Hemisphere, it's the highest recorded SUSTAINED WINDS of any tropical cyclone ever recorded.

Typhoon Ida, in 1958, had a lower millibar reading than Patricia (877 versus Patricia's 879), as did Typhoon Nora in 1973 (875) and Typhoon June in 1975 (875), though, but the sustained wind speed was never specifically measured for any of them.

So while this is the highest sustained wind speed ever recorded in any hurricane, typhoon or (as the weather people call them) tropical cyclone (they're all driven by the same mechanisms, just different names for different places), it's POSSIBLE that the other three storms had higher sustained wind speeds. There is a correlation between a low pressure reading and wind speed (naturally), but other conditions (such as the distance between pressure zones) will dictate the actual speed.

Color me surprised that the media's typical hyperbole isn't - this time.

I'm always hesitant to repeat "facts" I pick up on "breaking news," but I did read that the pressure over Patricia's eye is the lowest ever recorded, which is probably a decent indirect measure of intensity if nothing else.

The crazy thing is to get that reading (879 mbar BTW) they fly into the hurricane. Those guys have some balls of steel. Still it isn't the lowest reading ever although it is the fasted dropping reading (fell 100 mbar in less than 24 hours) and it is the lowest reading in the western hemisphere.

 

[Veritas super omens]

pipe13[/url]":19z70alr]Ah... okay. Sorry to go all science on you guys, but for the clueless here, could Dr. Jay or somebody please decipher the legend to the lead-in NPP VIIRS graphic? One might assume that "red" air is warmer than "blue" air?? One could also be wrong???

Thanks????

No, I don't think so. I can't quite read the characters below the color bar but my take is that based on the chart that the blue is the warmest while yellow is the coldest, red is in the middle. An IR camera reads temperature. But I am not a climate scientist.

 

[jig]

watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOAO8klqWVw

it shows the full genesis in IR.

 

[pluckedkiwi]

andrewb610[/url]":2tit37lc]
Category 7 = "Apocalyptic"

But given its location, wouldn't you say this one is Acapulcolyptic?

 

[Batmanuel]

Rommel102[/url]":29nsdhdg]

macromorgan[/url]":29nsdhdg]

anon_coward[/url]":29nsdhdg]

andrewb610[/url]":29nsdhdg]

anon_coward[/url]":29nsdhdg]

bthylafh[/url]":29nsdhdg]Yay global warming. A hurricane's strength is strongly influenced by how warm the water is, and because of AGW the ocean's going to keep getting warmer.

so how did the northeast have hurricanes in the early 1800's that destroyed entire islands?

Just because there's a trend of steadily increasing ocean water temperature now doesn't mean there weren't seasons of unusually high ocean water temperatures hundreds of years ago. Climate change just says that with the way we're going increases the chances of any given season having above average ocean water temperatures.

except these happened during the little ice age when the world was supposed to be cold. used to be one barrier island south of long island and in 1693 a storm destroyed part of it and created two islands

As it has been explained to me, global warming predicts basically as the mean global temperature increases the standard deviation of weather patterns will increase too. This is because most weather patterns (such as hurricanes) are fueled by warmer water and larger temperature deltas.

So while it's true with a sample size of 1 we can't say that this was or was not caused by global warming, we can predict (and the data supports this) that the number of severe weather events will increase.

Even in the past it was still possible, however, for severe weather events and anomalies; it just happens more frequently now. Imagine weather possibilities as a bell curve, global warming makes the bell curve fatter.

There is no evidence of an increase in hurricane activity or average strength; we are in fact in the middle of a nearly decade long decrease in not only named storms but in storms that made landfall. The theory of increased ocean temperature leading to more severe storms is circumstantially sound, but in reality we're not seeing it (yet). There is considerable debate about the heat-sink abilities of the oceans, with some theories even suggesting that deep sea heat absorption is responsible for the "pause" in warming that has been observed.

In general, slightly higher sea levels seem to have had more of a contributing affect to storm damage recently than any increase in storm intensity or frequency from surface temperature rises.

So are you only counting the Atlantic in that decrease in named storms that made landfall? The Pacific has had a shitload of nasty storms in 2014 and 2015. Granted 2010 was a bit of a dud year, but the Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon seasons have kind of made up for the decrease in activity in the Atlantic since 2005.

Granted, I'd still be hesitant to say that climate change is solely responsible, but there's been a LOT of nasty storm activity that Americans have been pretty ignorant of because it is happening on the other side of the world, like the Philippines getting clobbered by Koppu this week.

 

[Kin24]

theotherjim[/url]":2at2mt5g]

Rommel102[/url]":2at2mt5g]Sounds like we need a new Category.

Category 6 = "Biblical"

Category 7 = "Necronomical"

lol

 

[Kin24]

anon_coward[/url]":2ng67n9w]

andrewb610[/url]":2ng67n9w]

anon_coward[/url]":2ng67n9w]

bthylafh[/url]":2ng67n9w]Yay global warming. A hurricane's strength is strongly influenced by how warm the water is, and because of AGW the ocean's going to keep getting warmer.

so how did the northeast have hurricanes in the early 1800's that destroyed entire islands?

Just because there's a trend of steadily increasing ocean water temperature now doesn't mean there weren't seasons of unusually high ocean water temperatures hundreds of years ago. Climate change just says that with the way we're going increases the chances of any given season having above average ocean water temperatures.

except these happened during the little ice age when the world was supposed to be cold. used to be one barrier island south of long island and in 1693 a storm destroyed part of it and created two islands

So somehow that is "proof" that AGW doesnt exist? LMFAO

 

[Kin24]

anon_coward[/url]":e6ip6h1r]

Rommel102[/url]":e6ip6h1r]

anon_coward[/url]":e6ip6h1r]

bthylafh[/url]":e6ip6h1r]Yay global warming. A hurricane's strength is strongly influenced by how warm the water is, and because of AGW the ocean's going to keep getting warmer.

so how did the northeast have hurricanes in the early 1800's that destroyed entire islands?

Not really sure where you are going with this one...

Sandy? Wasn't a hurricane when it hit, and in any case in the 1800's the barrier islands that were damaged would have been empty of any occupation and dwellings.

There is no real historical record for hurricanes because unlike other types of events the area damaged has to be inhabited by humans in order to record them (and they have to take accurate recordings & measurements in the first place). So we really don't know if activity today is abnormal or not.

We absolutely do see an increase in damage from storms over the last century...but most of that can be attributed to building in hurricane-prone areas and not simply strength of storms. Sandy as I said wasn't even in a hurricane and did billions of dollars in damage.

the native americans kept records in their stories and modern scientists can figure out if a tsunami struck almost a thousand years ago based on what they see in the environment


i've actually read of a theory that most powerful hurricanes happen during cold climates. forgot where, but it was by a real scientists

So, can modern scientists figure out, from oral histories of the native americans, how large the tsunami was, how much rain fell, windspeed etc? I doubt it. All they get is "really big wave". They can verify that it happened but you are REALLY stretching if you think they can much more than that that isnt speculation. Also, source please on that last sentence, otherwise, its just BS.

 

[Kin24]

anon_coward[/url]":1qfdg5wh]

Mildweasel[/url]":1qfdg5wh]

anon_coward[/url]":1qfdg5wh]

bthylafh[/url]":1qfdg5wh]Yay global warming. A hurricane's strength is strongly influenced by how warm the water is, and because of AGW the ocean's going to keep getting warmer.

so how did the northeast have hurricanes in the early 1800's that destroyed entire islands?

No warning, no building codes, no motorized transport to evacuate populations threatened. I could go on. It boils down to "getting trapped on or near the water".

no, this storm blew millions of pounds of sand and dirt away and literally turned one island into two islands

And your point is? Really big storm wipes islands away many years ago says ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. Youre stretching so far youre about to snap.

 

[Utopianh]

Iphtashu Fitz[/url]":1tt06rnx]

LimpBagel[/url]":1tt06rnx]My wife and I stopped in Puerto Vallarta on our honeymoon, doesn't seem like a place that will fare well to a Cat 5. Hopefully people there are taking it seriously.

I'm guessing there aren't too many places that would fare well dealing with the brunt of a hurricane like this. Category 5 is defined as sustained winds in excess of 157 mph, but as this article stated Patricia is sustaining winds of 200 mph. On the radio this morning I heard they can expect gusts to reach 250 mph, which just boggles my mind.

That's getting into EF4-EF5 Tornadic territory.

There are EF5s which have been recorded up to 300 MPH, but those aren't sustained for long periods.

The idea of a hurricane having sustained winds at 200 MPH is mind boggling indeed.

 

[fgoodwin]

RCook[/url]":3afcpfdt]The bitch Patricia dumped, is dumping, enough rain on Austin, TX. that my Dad and I ended up cancelling our trip to the USGP. She can go away...

It's been raining for a couple of days now in San Antonio, but I'm pretty sure it is unrelated to Patricia. But before its over, anything and everything that's bad will get blamed on it, that you can count on.

 

[bjf182]

Hurricane Ditka.

 

[crosspad]

There are webcams broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta and other places. For example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oCpWyCYP_M is broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta.

 

[sep332]

crosspad[/url]":29nlv9kv]There are webcams broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta and other places. For example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oCpWyCYP_M is broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta.

That one doesn't seem to be live anymore. You can pick a live one from this page https://www.youtube.com/channel/UColBcW ... nNuQS8JaKg

 

[crosspad]

sep332[/url]":w9pnrwrb]

crosspad[/url]":w9pnrwrb]There are webcams broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta and other places. For example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oCpWyCYP_M is broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta.

That one doesn't seem to be live anymore. You can pick a live one from this page https://www.youtube.com/channel/UColBcW ... nNuQS8JaKg

Yes, i just found out that. The original page is http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.p ... &streams=1

Now that link to their channel should work too.

 

[snowman_pr]

In 1998, hurricane Georges hit my home island of Puerto Rico, I lived in a small rural town with a decent forest beside us. My house was a well-constructed one made of wood but still out of habit and precaution we passed the storm at a relative's whose house was a concrete one. When the hurricane passed and we went back home, the forest was all but wiped out, I saw so much clarity that I was speechless, and then looking over the horizon the entire roof of my house was at my neighbor's yard, my house was nowhere to be found. That was a Cat 2 hurricane, and in PR we have at least the same federal building codes as in the US, so I really am terrified at the prospect of a 200+ sustained winds hurricane hitting a country which some rural areas are wayyyy poorer than you can imagine... My prayers are with Mexico right now...

edit:grammar

 

[dlux]

sep332[/url]":1d4cu5xj]That one doesn't seem to be live anymore.

How inconsiderate! Why doesn't someone go out there and fix it?






<do I really need to include a sarcasm tag?>

 

[DCStone]

Veritas super omens[/url]":1e1q4hfk]

pipe13[/url]":1e1q4hfk]Ah... okay. Sorry to go all science on you guys, but for the clueless here, could Dr. Jay or somebody please decipher the legend to the lead-in NPP VIIRS graphic? One might assume that "red" air is warmer than "blue" air?? One could also be wrong???

Thanks????

No, I don't think so. I can't quite read the characters below the color bar but my take is that based on the chart that the blue is the warmest while yellow is the coldest, red is in the middle. An IR camera reads temperature. But I am not a climate scientist.

You're correct on the direction of the temperature trend. If you click through the link below the image at the top of the article, it takes you to a page that provides the following figure caption:

When NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite passed over Patricia on Oct. 23 at 5:23 a.m. EDT the VIIRS instrument that flies aboard Suomi NPP looked at the storm in infrared light. Cloud top temperatures of thunderstorms around the eyewall were near minus 90 Celsius (minus 130 Fahrenheit).

(emphasis added)

Zooming in on the image shows blue is roughly –30 to –50 °C, green is –50 to –70 °C, and red is –70 to –80 °C (at the cloud tops.)

 

[Asvarduil]

andrewb610[/url]":2b3o9x4c]

muckz[/url]":2b3o9x4c]

bthylafh[/url]":2b3o9x4c]Yay global warming. A hurricane's strength is strongly influenced by how warm the water is, and because of AGW the ocean's going to keep getting warmer.

I think we need to develop a new law, like Godwin's law, except it should be about climate change.

Gore's Law?

I can see the Urban Dictionary quote now...

"Gore's Law: A natural law that describes the relationship of occurrences of severe natural events having anything to do whatsoever with global warming, to someone on the Internet impersonating Al Gore, specifically saying things like, 'I told ya so...' in a slow, southern drawl."

...Seems legit.

 

[webpublius]

To move past the regularly scheduled bicker...I mean, discussions regarding the causes: This is going to have larger effects through the next week on the States. The latest modeling runs show cumulative rainfall in parts of Texas & Louisiana exceeding 15 inches and much of the eastern part of the country getting significant rainfall.

Likely to cause severe weather into the Midwest and Ohio Valley as well

 

[teemark1]

Won't someone think of the tequila?

 

[Veritas super omens]

teemark1[/url]":3b6ibble]Won't someone think of the tequila?

Always!

 

[Veritas super omens]

I think the naming of "Laws" after politicians (c.f. Gores law). Which are not laws in the legal or the physics sense should be termed Trumps law. /i

 

[Asvarduil]

Veritas super omens[/url]":2rxyzp8s]I think the naming of "Laws" after politicians (c.f. Gores law). Which are not laws in the legal or the physics sense should be termed Trumps law. /i

Nonono. Trump's Law is already accounted for:

Trump's Law: Any time anyone successfully defeats one of your arguments using any combination of facts, logic, or prevailing public opinion, the correct answer that gets you poll points among Republican voters is to insult everything about the person.

The O'Donnel Corollary: ...Unless your name is Rosie O'Donnel; instead insulting that individual is a point of the highest order that will yield no tangible results but ensure that everyone knows you dislike Rosie O'Donnel's guts, in the most childish way possible.

 

[flybynight]

crosspad[/url]":qgei0uqi]

sep332[/url]":qgei0uqi]

crosspad[/url]":qgei0uqi]There are webcams broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta and other places. For example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oCpWyCYP_M is broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta.

That one doesn't seem to be live anymore. You can pick a live one from this page https://www.youtube.com/channel/UColBcW ... nNuQS8JaKg

Yes, i just found out that. The original page is http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.p ... &streams=1

Now that link to their channel should work too.

Wow. Thanks for the link. Looks like the coast is really starting to get the edge of Patricia.


EDIT: Link deleted. This is a loop from several hours ago. Sorry.

 

[Disco Funk Refugee]

Ugh. Look at that big patch of white dryness over SoCal.

I know, I know.... "be careful what you wish for."

 

[Urethramancer]

People in Guadalajara are stocking up on food and water now. They're preparing for the worst :/

 

[fryhole]

bthylafh[/url]":195qwz11]Yay global warming. A hurricane's strength is strongly influenced by how warm the water is, and because of AGW the ocean's going to keep getting warmer.

Shh .. ARS Readers like to pretend that global warming is something that can be controlled.

Larger more powerful storms have been predicted to become the "norm" in the coming decades. This is only a precursor.

 

[flybynight]

Disco Funk Refugee[/url]":kqkol6a4]Ugh. Look at that big patch of white dryness over SoCal.

I know, I know.... "be careful what you wish for."

Take care, mate. I've got family in SoCal. I've also got family in Austin and Houston; looks like they'll get at least some of Patricia, if not the full force of the storm. Appears to be tracking into the Gulf Coast of Texas.

 

[SixDegrees]

Rommel102[/url]":3582bexl]

macromorgan[/url]":3582bexl]

anon_coward[/url]":3582bexl]

andrewb610[/url]":3582bexl]

anon_coward[/url]":3582bexl]

bthylafh[/url]":3582bexl]Yay global warming. A hurricane's strength is strongly influenced by how warm the water is, and because of AGW the ocean's going to keep getting warmer.

so how did the northeast have hurricanes in the early 1800's that destroyed entire islands?

Just because there's a trend of steadily increasing ocean water temperature now doesn't mean there weren't seasons of unusually high ocean water temperatures hundreds of years ago. Climate change just says that with the way we're going increases the chances of any given season having above average ocean water temperatures.

except these happened during the little ice age when the world was supposed to be cold. used to be one barrier island south of long island and in 1693 a storm destroyed part of it and created two islands

As it has been explained to me, global warming predicts basically as the mean global temperature increases the standard deviation of weather patterns will increase too. This is because most weather patterns (such as hurricanes) are fueled by warmer water and larger temperature deltas.

So while it's true with a sample size of 1 we can't say that this was or was not caused by global warming, we can predict (and the data supports this) that the number of severe weather events will increase.

Even in the past it was still possible, however, for severe weather events and anomalies; it just happens more frequently now. Imagine weather possibilities as a bell curve, global warming makes the bell curve fatter.

There is no evidence of an increase in hurricane activity or average strength; we are in fact in the middle of a nearly decade long decrease in not only named storms but in storms that made landfall..

These constraints you've placed on storms you'll count are curiously specific, and don't strike me as having any particular merit.

 

[notjustarockstar]

jbode[/url]":1r8shcqt]Central TX is already in the middle of a flash flood watch from the leading edge of the storm.

My understanding is that we're heading into (or are already in ) an El Nino event to rival 1997/98. Gonna be a rough year, folks.

It is NOT the leading edge of the storm!!! Hurricane Patricia is over 1000 miles away. What we're getting right now is Gulf moisture colliding with a cool front. Patricia's rain will come later this weekend.

 

[david newall]

jbode[/url]":10a67qxc]Central TX is already in the middle of a flash flood watch from the leading edge of the storm.

My understanding is that we're heading into (or are already in ) an El Nino event to rival 1997/98. Gonna be a rough year, folks.

I bet y'all are wishing you'd impeached Bush the Stupid, when you had the chance, for doing nothing about the "economically inconvenient" climate-change reductions. Is it just irony that Usania seems to be one of the worst affected nations, or is their really a God?

 

[flybynight]

david newall[/url]":239tp87w]

jbode[/url]":239tp87w]Central TX is already in the middle of a flash flood watch from the leading edge of the storm.

My understanding is that we're heading into (or are already in ) an El Nino event to rival 1997/98. Gonna be a rough year, folks.

I bet y'all are wishing you'd impeached Bush the Stupid, when you had the chance, for doing nothing about the "economically inconvenient" climate-change reductions. Is it just irony that Usania seems to be one of the worst affected nations, or is their really a God?

David, mate, you're not coming off very well with your diatribe. Better luck next time?

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

Mildweasel[/url]":1upn1fc0]

SgtCupCake[/url]":1upn1fc0]I got a crazy surfer buddy who is going to want to hear about this.....

I got to help my great aunt and uncle try to find their house after Camille hit Waveland (where they lived). There was nothing but a street grid and miles of slabs. Found a few pictures and silverware, not much else. This storm sounds a LOT like Camille and if it is the only correct response is RUN.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9UqecgfuU4

HOLY CRAP !!!!

 

[norton_I]

Statistical[/url]":21zchlvy]
The crazy thing is to get that reading (879 mbar BTW) they fly into the hurricane. Those guys have some balls of steel.

++ came here to post this.

Also, according to wikipedia:

The 1943 Surprise Hurricane, which struck Houston, Texas, during World War II, marked the first intentional meteorological flight into a hurricane. It started with a bet.

which sounds about right.

 

[flybynight]

Honestly concerned. Any good live links to the storm?

Edit: Just found this

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/ ... 6720151024

Sorry, bad stuttering.

 

[flybynight]

crosspad[/url]":2dl5dzqm]

sep332[/url]":2dl5dzqm]

crosspad[/url]":2dl5dzqm]There are webcams broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta and other places. For example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oCpWyCYP_M is broadcasting from Puerto Vallarta.

That one doesn't seem to be live anymore. You can pick a live one from this page https://www.youtube.com/channel/UColBcW ... nNuQS8JaKg

Yes, i just found out that. The original page is http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.p ... &streams=1

Now that link to their channel should work too.

Holy....

The wind seems to be tremendous.

 

[Azethoth666]

grizzlyaddams[/url]":1y4ci5qb]Glacial recession? Vastly increased frequency and severity of natural disasters? Seasons differing across the globe? Especially the past few years? Largest storm ever tracked?

Nothing to see here.

Edit: Are the down votes because I didn't add a "/s" or what?

The down votes are because you apparently do not understand the difference between weather and climate. This storm neither proves nor disproves AGW. Same way a cold or warm day or month or year at some location does not. It is just weather.

 

[xBobDolex]

bthylafh[/url]":1dwv7m88]Yay global warming. A hurricane's strength is strongly influenced by how warm the water is, and because of AGW the ocean's going to keep getting warmer.

Do you remember what was said about the current active volcanoes right here on this site?