EV sales slowdown is mostly a Tesla problem, according to sales data
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Couldn't happen to a more deserving company. Their entire model line has the design maturity and quality of a prototype. Let alone their corporate culture.
The automotive industry will be better when Tesla co is in the rear view mirror of history.
The automotive industry will be better when Tesla co is in the rear view mirror of history.
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Alienating your customer base by being a complete jackwagon might have something to do with it
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Tesla has a ton of competition now, their CEO is constantly in the news for his jackassery, and their models have (to the untrained eye) remained unchanged since introduction.
I'll probably be proved wrong, but that seems like a formula for continued headwinds.
I'll probably be proved wrong, but that seems like a formula for continued headwinds.
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I suspect that Volvo's BEV sales in the US would be up dramatically, if only they would actually deliver a few such vehicles, instead of merely talking about it.
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AmanoJyaku
Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
While this is a slap in the face for Tesla, the important takeaway is EV demand is much higher than many would have us believe.
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Prioritize the CEO as it legit is the major thing that keeps me from considering a Tesla. But as said before there are other aspects of that company that need to be overhauled up to and including new models.
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Maybe Musk going out of his way to alienate the demographics most likely to seek out a BEV wasn't a smart business move.
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So that mean less ugly blobs (Teslas) on the road? Good. I've said it before, but Tesla is a house of cards that's (deservedly) dangerously close to fall apart.
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Even to the trained eye, it's an issue.
Porsche has rolled out it's second Taycan since 2022, significantly boosting its charging rate past 300kW.
Arguably, the Model S battery pack that peaks at 250kW charging rate is unchanged from the Model S 100 from 2017.
Imagine how things would be different if Musk invested $44 Billion into improved charging for Teslas.
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"GM's difficulty in ramping up its new family of EVs built around the UItium battery platform has been well-documented."
They got the battery sorted but now have crossed the No carplay/Android auto Rubicon. No coming back from that for me.
They got the battery sorted but now have crossed the No carplay/Android auto Rubicon. No coming back from that for me.
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The thing that gets lost so often in EV discussions is that this is a 30-40 year transition, and we're maybe 10-12 years in. There is a reliable and very well-defined relationship between time and demand with a new technology, and it's a simple bell curve: early on, demand and adoption is low and driven by very early adopters, it rises but remains low as the technology matures and the technology ecosystem begins to make it feasible, and often there is a "chasm" of stalled demand as early adopter demand starts to become satisfied and before the technology starts being widely adopted by the mainstream consumer.
Demand is still growing. EVs still sell. Contrary to many assertions around here, EVs in the $50-70k range are selling just as well as anything else. It is very, very premature to draw any conclusion about even the medium-term demand for EVs.
Demand is still growing. EVs still sell. Contrary to many assertions around here, EVs in the $50-70k range are selling just as well as anything else. It is very, very premature to draw any conclusion about even the medium-term demand for EVs.
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Leaving aside the CEO, I'd be extremely leery about buying something I intended to keep for a long time from a company that has a history of pushing updates that actually make the vehicle worse. Not to mention their lack of configuration control (meaning it's unclear if even they even know exactly what parts they used in each particular vehicle) and attempt to keep repairs in house meaning I'd be worried about being able to get repairs/replacement parts in 10 years.
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My car is almost 10 years old and doesn't have CarPlay or Android Auto. Every time I have to rent a car, it has CarPlay and I love it. My next car will be electric, and it will support CarPlay. Those are pretty much the only non-negotiable requirements I have.
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Tesla/Musk being the hype behind EVs is a double-edged sword, with that self-inflicted wound edge taking over now. I've lost track of how many times I've seen articles about how Tesla's sales have fallen, with the comment sections flooded with people gleefully claiming this is the death of EVs, even when the article noted that other manufacturers are seeing huge growth. Stupidly, way too many people see EVs = Tesla.
I know I shouldn't be surprised, but I just find it so odd how absolutely hostile some people are towards EVs. Like, they see ICE vehicles as an extension of them, with EVs being an existential threat to their existence. Then again, I've lived through so many Mac vs PC, iPhone vs Android, PS vs Xbox stupid platform wars, that this is to be expected.
In perfect hindsight, I think most existing manufacturers should have initially focused on PHEVs. They're the perfect bridge vehicle to get people over their pearl clutching over range anxiety. Own one of those for 5 years, then when it's time for a new car, they can ask themselves how often they actually even used the gas engine. And that's with a vehicle that almost certainly has a shorter electric range than a full-fledged EV.
I know I shouldn't be surprised, but I just find it so odd how absolutely hostile some people are towards EVs. Like, they see ICE vehicles as an extension of them, with EVs being an existential threat to their existence. Then again, I've lived through so many Mac vs PC, iPhone vs Android, PS vs Xbox stupid platform wars, that this is to be expected.
In perfect hindsight, I think most existing manufacturers should have initially focused on PHEVs. They're the perfect bridge vehicle to get people over their pearl clutching over range anxiety. Own one of those for 5 years, then when it's time for a new car, they can ask themselves how often they actually even used the gas engine. And that's with a vehicle that almost certainly has a shorter electric range than a full-fledged EV.
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This is the fun part: they really can't. They never established an engineering pipeline for regular refreshes and redesigns. There's no modular shared platform to make that easier. They've been wasting money on niche vanity projects instead of solid new product and now that demand is cratering they don't have the revenues to fund a crash development program. They can't even apply the mild refresh the Model 3 got to the Model Y.
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There has to be an internal rationale for that at GM. Admittedly, Ars readers skew tech heavy, so using AA/CP comes naturally.
But GM must have some telemetry data from their cars that show how many customers actually use that interface. I know that with the cars in my family, I use AA, but my wife doesn't.
Personally, I think Barra should backtrack and software update the systems in their EV's to reinstate it, especially since the Prologue already runs it on the same hardware.
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The EX90 goes into production in South Carolina in a few weeks so expect those to start showing up before year's end.
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Volvo's BEV cars are selling fine?
The new EX30 sold 11,000 units in May.
Since production ramped up...
Their older EVs like the C40 recharge dropped like a rock (on already low sales) probably from how uncompetitive it is at the price point for the range...
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It's very clear that they don't care how many people use it, they want a recurring revenue stream. They've said basically this.
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But Twitter wasn't giving him brain worms fast enough, so rectifying that obviously had to be priority number one.
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Honestly, the most meaningful update would be to switch the entire fleet to an 800V system for charging. Especially since Tesla correctly identified charging speed as an issue in the first place.
But I don't see Tesla being able to manage that job now, especially if the boss sees the company as an "AI" company, and not an automotive one.
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The internal rationale is that Mary Barra and her executive team are completely convinced that fencing customer data is a multibillion dollar business for GM, because they are trying to placate investors and shareholders who have brain worms from a decade of tech sector growth and are screaming for investments in other sectors to deliver like Facebook used to, and they need customers using their infotainment to generate that data. They know AA/CP is incredibly popular, they know it's a majority of new car buyers #1 most desired feature, and they're gambling that the value of the data is worth more than the sales they'll miss because they don't offer it.
Personally, I think that's wildly stupid and that the data the system will generate is nearly worthless. Just because there's an internal rationale doesn't mean it's a good or well-informed rationale.
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I am 100% pro electrification of transport, I really don't care who produces these vehicles - although I'd prefer they were manufactured by a diverse set of companies and not in countries that are all but dictatorships.
But can we add some absolutes to the percentages in this article? From the article:
From another site:
Now maybe March was a bad month for the F-150 for some reason? Happy to be informed if that's the case. But an almost exclusive usage of relative percentages is not especially good practice; especially when comparing absolutes that have significant differences.
To be clear: I deeply wish there were more sold - I want electric vehicles.
But can we add some absolutes to the percentages in this article? From the article:
From another site:
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a60814711/tesla-cybertruck-registration-numbers/
Now maybe March was a bad month for the F-150 for some reason? Happy to be informed if that's the case. But an almost exclusive usage of relative percentages is not especially good practice; especially when comparing absolutes that have significant differences.
To be clear: I deeply wish there were more sold - I want electric vehicles.
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Tesla .. see above
GM, Ford, VW - sales may not be what they want, but I'm guessing the margins trajectory aren't either. CEOs see European markets at risk by BYD.
Hyundai/Kia - rapidly expanding into new models, soon manufacturing in the US. Hard to see another legacy manufacture selling in the US on better footing.
Volvo - I'm not sure on the mix in manufacturing between their China and European factories. They could be a pretty high risk for the US tariff.
Rivian - gets great press, they're doing a lot of damage control on how expensive 2024 will be, I sure hope they make it to the R3. If their fleet vehicle market can keep them solvent, it might happen.
Everyone else seems to be growing just fine, but actual volume is low enough that the still have room to experiment.
GM, Ford, VW - sales may not be what they want, but I'm guessing the margins trajectory aren't either. CEOs see European markets at risk by BYD.
Hyundai/Kia - rapidly expanding into new models, soon manufacturing in the US. Hard to see another legacy manufacture selling in the US on better footing.
Volvo - I'm not sure on the mix in manufacturing between their China and European factories. They could be a pretty high risk for the US tariff.
Rivian - gets great press, they're doing a lot of damage control on how expensive 2024 will be, I sure hope they make it to the R3. If their fleet vehicle market can keep them solvent, it might happen.
Everyone else seems to be growing just fine, but actual volume is low enough that the still have room to experiment.
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I own a Model 3 which I purchased prior to COVID and Elon going full Elon. He is the main reason I haven't jumped at some of their recent sales incentives.
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Imagine how things would be different if Musk had invested even $1 billion into a muzzle and an inner voice that said "Uh-uh uh...""
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It's almost like re-writing the book on literally everything just to be "different" than the SAE was a dogshit idea in the first place.
Look, SAE's got standards for stuff like headliner glue, types of materials, size of bolts, pitch thread, etc. for a reason. That reason? Trial and error. In the 80s and 90s, headliners sagged like crazy because they used the wrong kinds of adhesives. Tesla threw out SAE 910781 entirely and said "eff it, we're coming up with this on our own instead!" What happened? Headliners started sagging barely a year out on $80k+ cars.
Now? Cybertruck used the wrong kind of stainless for its body panels and they're starting to discolor less than a year out.
Nevermind all the autopilot failures, the lack of CarPlay, the wankpanzer of a CEO, and other quality control issues... it's no wonder Tesla's getting dunked on by every other automaker.
Look, SAE's got standards for stuff like headliner glue, types of materials, size of bolts, pitch thread, etc. for a reason. That reason? Trial and error. In the 80s and 90s, headliners sagged like crazy because they used the wrong kinds of adhesives. Tesla threw out SAE 910781 entirely and said "eff it, we're coming up with this on our own instead!" What happened? Headliners started sagging barely a year out on $80k+ cars.
Now? Cybertruck used the wrong kind of stainless for its body panels and they're starting to discolor less than a year out.
Nevermind all the autopilot failures, the lack of CarPlay, the wankpanzer of a CEO, and other quality control issues... it's no wonder Tesla's getting dunked on by every other automaker.
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I believe the first one rolled off the line yesterday. But an EX90 is way more vehicle than I want or need. Meanwhile, I still have a reservation to order an EX30 (after one full year), and have placed an actual order for an XC40 Recharge; after 4 months, Volvo has yet to acknowledge that order, other than to collect my down payment.
Time for Volvo to put up or shut up, methinks.
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Imo it's long been apparent that Tesla was going to have their lunch eaten by the other car companies once they got their act together. The face of the company becoming a massive liability sure didn't help but it was always going to happen.
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The recurring revenue stream already exists: GM already charges for the cellular connectivity for the system, under the OnStar umbrella for in-car WiFi, as well as app connectivity.
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This is why - whenever I get to the point where I'm looking to replace my 2017 Bolt - I'm seriously considering the Honda Prologue. All the benefits of the GM Ultium platform, but with the sensible addition of Carplay/Android Auto.
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Join my religion it's the fastest growing in the world - 100% yoy! There's two of us!
Christianity - now that's in trouble, it only grew 0.1%
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