Domestic consequences of the 2024 US presidential election: the quickening

wireframed

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Not exactly. I saw it as insider trading working against investors who saw the "pause" and reacted, only later realizing that we're still tariffing everyone, that we're still in a hot trade war with China and Canada, and that the bond market is still cratering. Plus profit taking by the insiders after yesterday.
I wondered at the strong rebound, given there was still 10% blanket tariffs, and a whopping 125% (or is it 145%?) tariff on China.

It feels like a lot of people suddenly went:
“Wait… don’t we import a lot from China? Can someone check how much? Really?! Oh shit…”
 

Lt_Storm

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Oh sweet Jesus. F*cking Democrats. How?! How in the ever loving f*ck are these people so f*cking bad at politics.

Democrats are as bad at politics as Trump is at dancing. Jesus Christ.

Between Whitmer and Newsom, I'm going to be volunteering to be sent to El Salvador.
When someone is willing to lie about what you said, is it being bad at politics?
 

BigLan

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I wondered at the strong rebound, given there was still 10% blanket tariffs, and a whopping 125% (or is it 145%?) tariff on China.

It feels like a lot of people suddenly went:
“Wait… don’t we import a lot from China? Can someone check how much? Really?! Oh shit…”
The blanket 10% seems to have been forgotten about, which feels like was the plan all along with the "reciprocal tariffs."
 

Lt_Storm

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The blanket 10% seems to have been forgotten about, which feels like was the plan all along with the "reciprocal tariffs."
That assumes much more thought than Trump typically shows evidence of... More likely, the stock market crashed and Trump panicked, hoping to stop the crash. Which seems to have worked for about 6 hours.
 

Technarch

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That assumes much more thought than Trump typically shows evidence of... More likely, the stock market crashed and Trump panicked, hoping to stop the crash. Which seems to have worked for about 6 hours.

The prevailing theory is that the dumping of T-bonds forced him to cave. Except that it doesn't look like caving stopped the dumping. And Trump promptly turned around and asked the SCOTUS for the authority to fire Powell.
 

Lt_Storm

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So she was disagreeing with Trump on the means to re-onshoring manufacturing and "fair trade"?
From that video, it's a bit hard to say, as the quote is taken out of context. That said, what little context I saw in the video would indicate roughly that, in her opinion: Trump's tariffs are really dumb, but the concern about American manufacturing is legitimate.
 

Lt_Storm

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Macam

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More bi-partisan support for Trump's tariffs from the Dems:

View: https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1910342550461784478


Knew this was bullshit because no one actually knows the motivation for the tariffs, including Trump. Like, we all know he doesn't understand anything and thinks tariffs are like some magic thing you can generate revenue and extort favors from people with no consequence, but the public motivation ranges from fentanyl, to trade deficits, to bringing manufacturing back, to mutual tariff elimination, to whatever ChatGPT told me that one time.

In honor of this now being a 🦄 thread, I will say one of the funnier bits of this endless nightmare was the meme going around on Chinese social networks of bringing back American manufacturing jobs like garments, sewing Nike shoes, or per the Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, screwing in screws on iPhones.

ChineseMeme50.jpg




Link

Anyway, the US bond sell off continues (sending gold soaring).
 

9600man

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In honor of this now being a 🦄 thread, I will say one of the funnier bits of this endless nightmare was the meme going around on Chinese social networks of bringing back American manufacturing jobs like garments, sewing Nike shoes, or per the Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, screwing in screws on iPhones.

ChineseMeme50.jpg

Can you imagine how enforced the suicide nets are going to have to be? Crikey.
 

invertedpanda

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Knew this was bullshit because no one actually knows the motivation for the tariffs, including Trump. Like, we all know he doesn't understand anything and thinks tariffs are like some magic thing you can generate revenue and extort favors from people with no consequence, but the public motivation ranges from fentanyl, to trade deficits, to bringing manufacturing back, to mutual tariff elimination, to whatever ChatGPT told me that one time.

In honor of this now being a 🦄 thread, I will say one of the funnier bits of this endless nightmare was the meme going around on Chinese social networks of bringing back American manufacturing jobs like garments, sewing Nike shoes, or per the Lutnick, the Commerce Secretary, screwing in screws on iPhones.

View attachment 107370



Link

Anyway, the US bond sell off continues (sending gold soaring).


This whole "We want more stuff made in America! We want more factory jobs!" screams to me like "We want less education-required service industry workers and more budget wage-slaves". And all these imports the tariffs end up impacting the most are the ones that are really shitty to make; Steel and other metal refineries, crappy monotonous assembly and inspection gigs, all the stuff Americans already didn't want to do for low wages that we wanted the immigrants to take care of.. That we're also getting rid off.

Just more effort to increase the wage divide between the top and bottom by increasing the amount of blue-collar low-wage workers.

America shifted to a service industry economy because that's what more affluent nations tend to do; shitty factory work is shitty factory work, and regressing to that while convincing Americans that they are becoming Great Again is just a greater sign of the growth of the autocrat class.
 
The thing about onshoring manufacturing is an obvious red herring since they're doing none of the things which would actually produce that.

If you want to onshore manufacturing you need to have specific targeted tariffs on market sectors where you can meaningfully onshore things because you don't need to import many of the precursors, you need to be clear that those tariffs are there for the long haul (10+ years because it will take 4-5 to onshore the production chain and the industry then needs time to recoup on that) and you probably need to offer specific targeted incentives to those industries on top to get them to build the factories (direct investment, tax incentives).

Tariffs will, of course, correct the US' balance of trade with the rest of the world in general which is the other thing Trump says he wants, but since the balance of trade is the way it is because the US is very rich and can afford to buy stuff the only way they will do that is by impoverishing the US to the point that is no longer true. Maybe not even needing them keeping them in place, as the uncertainty of the will-he-won't-he dance will cause derisking from the US economy anyway.
 

wireframed

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This whole "We want more stuff made in America! We want more factory jobs!" screams to me like "We want less education-required service industry workers and more budget wage-slaves". And all these imports the tariffs end up impacting the most are the ones that are really shitty to make; Steel and other metal refineries, crappy monotonous assembly and inspection gigs, all the stuff Americans already didn't want to do for low wages that we wanted the immigrants to take care of.. That we're also getting rid off.

Just more effort to increase the wage divide between the top and bottom by increasing the amount of blue-collar low-wage workers.

America shifted to a service industry economy because that's what more affluent nations tend to do; shitty factory work is shitty factory work, and regressing to that while convincing Americans that they are becoming Great Again is just a greater sign of the growth of the autocrat class.
Well, frankly, service jobs aren't all necessarily better than manufacturing ones. Sure, some people like it, but I don't think a lot of people are dreaming of making low wage at McDonalds. They just aren't easy to outsource.

Meanwhile, manufacturing doesn't have to be menial, shitty factory work. You can in-source the manufacturing that requires training and skill, and the rest will presumably be taken over by automation and robots if it isn't already.

Of course there are degrees of service jobs as there are manufacturing jobs. And no matter what, Trump's methods are completely orthoganol to getting more industry back to the US, because it requires planning, stability and decades of work. None of which Trump and his cabinet is capable of, or interested in doing.
 
The key variable isn't the type of jobs, but it is whether labor is organized and can advocate for workers or not. The "factory jobs" is a nostalgic dog whistle to a time when factory jobs were good jobs because labor was much more unionized. Onshoring "millions of people putting teeny, tiny screws in iPhones" isn't a recipe for a new golden age in America. Those jobs were moved offshore in part because labor elsewhere was cheaper and had less power.

The goal here is to make all jobs garbage jobs. Trump's people are anti-union, they are firing federal workers (some of the most stable employment there is), pro-gig economy, pro suppression of wages, pro child labor, etc.

Like pretty much everything they say, it is all a lie. They are saying "look over there at the (immigrants / foreign workers / trans folk / women / liberals / brown people)! We will use extra-legal and extra-constitutional powers to get back the good things they took from you!"

As always, the mark thinks he is in on the scam, until he has been fleeced.
 

invertedpanda

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Well, frankly, service jobs aren't all necessarily better than manufacturing ones. Sure, some people like it, but I don't think a lot of people are dreaming of making low wage at McDonalds. They just aren't easy to outsource.
With automation and a migration to kiosk/self-service, we're going to see fewer of those kinds of service jobs, too; I'm moreso thinking of the service industry gigs that tend to be a "goal" job.

And yeah, factory jobs can pay fairly well too, but there tend to be the "hidden costs" with many of them (mostly in the areas of health).
 

9600man

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mostly in the areas of health

Obesity rates might go down. Obesity rates in China went up as the middle class grew and more people moved to the service sector.

We might see an equal reversal in the US as more Americans get back to manufacturing and assembling resulting in the middle class shrinking along with their waist lines.
Make America Gingerly Again.
I was thinking of synonyms starting for ‘skinny’ starting with the letter ‘g’ and the only other one I could come up with was ‘gaunt’, but the American fentanyl addicts got that locked up.

I don’t know what’s wrong with me. My creativity has taken a dark turn and I’m being a tad acerbic for my tastes. I should take a mental break from the news.
 

Wheels Of Confusion

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More bi-partisan support for Trump's tariffs from the Dems:
There are shorter clips but I think you might need to watch the whole thing.
Background: Homer Simpson saw that the family's baby sitter had sat on a gummi Venus de Milo candy and, being a glutton, took it off her while looking like a sex offender. The sitter's (mistaken, but understandably so) version of events spreads through town, painting Homer as as a predator.
He's invited to give his version of events by exploitative media.



It's called "deceptive editing." Taking segments of a video out of context and framing them with a new one to push a narrative that's often directly at odds with the one the video's subject supports, or which is manipulated to push the agenda of the presenter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_manipulation
The Washington Post's fact-checking team has identified six forms of video manipulation, classified into three categories:[7]
  1. Missing context
    • Misrepresentation: Placing original video footage into an incorrect context to misinform the audience
    • Isolation: Publishing a short segment from a video that presents a different narrative than the full video
  2. Deceptive editing
    • Omission: Removing major segments from a video to present a different story
    • Splicing: Combining segments from different videos to form a narrative not supported by any of the individual videos
  3. Malicious transformation
    • Doctoring: Directly modifying video frames
    • Fabrication: Using technology to construct bogus videos, such as deepfakes

You are now slightly more savvy and should apply this knowledge to any clips you see on Twitter, TikTok, etc. In this case when applying these critical thinking skills and knowledge of deceptive editing we can see how governor Whitmer's nuanced position about how to protect America's domestic production and middle class were spun into a useful anti-Democratic, pro-Trump narrative about her supporting Trump's tariffs, both to enrage Democratic voters and poison them against the party and to give Trump voters something to crow about.

This is not a surprise. The Twitter account you linked to is that of Benny Johnson, a pro-Trump bullshit artist masquerading as a journalist turned "influencer."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benny_Johnson_(columnist)#Controversies
In July 2014, Johnson was suspended from Buzzfeed when an online investigation exposed plagiarism in his posts. His writings "periodically lifted text from a variety of sources" — including Yahoo Answers, Wikipedia, U.S. News & World Report — "all without credit".[7] [19] The plagiarised work comprised almost ten percent of his work; he was subsequently fired from BuzzFeed and apologized for the plagiarism.[7]

In March 2017, IJR staffers accused Johnson of plagiarizing an article about then-House Republican Conference chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers.[20] Later in the same month Johnson was suspended by the IJR after his involvement in an article which asserted that judge Derrick Watson's partial blocking of Executive Order 13780 was connected to former president Barack Obama's visit to Hawaii. Johnson had been warned that the IJR could potentially be promoting a conspiracy theory, but assigned the story anyway.[20][21]

Again in March 2017, Johnson was reported to have been verbally abusive and driven numerous staffers away from the IJR due to his management style;[21] he was subsequently demoted.[12]

In August 2017, Johnson wrote an article containing the most controversial tweets of what he thought was the Boston antifa Twitter account, but was actually a fake account intended to lampoon antifa. Initially an editorial note was added, and the article was later removed.[22][23][24]

In April 2022, The Verge published an investigation on Arsenal Media, a conservative boutique co-founded by Johnson. Former employees and contractors described dubious corporate practices: payments delayed for months, contracts with political campaigns rife with self-dealing, overworked and underpaid jobs. Johnson has been described as “very abusive, very toxic, screaming at people, like using profanity, vulgarity, making women cry, like pushing them to the edge.”[25]

In August 2024, two Russian state media employees were charged with secretly funding almost $10 million to a Tennessee company for the production of political videos to benefit Russia by influencing the United States. The company's description matches that of Tenet Media, which had employed Johnson and other right-wing influencers, with him responding that "myself and other influencers were victims in this alleged scheme", with a request being made for him to produce content for a "media startup", and that he had a "standard, arms length deal, which was later terminated".[26][27]

Of course, a more complete solution to avoiding disinformation is to never look at Twitter and be skeptical of things sourced from it.
But this information can help you out tremendously regardless of what the source you're given is.

To whit: You phrased this as "more bi-partisan support for Trump's tariffs from Dems," indicating that you not only fell for this instance of deceptive editing and framing, but you may have also been taken in by other Twitter-based bad takes and/or disinformation. In reality the Democrats are universally opposed to Trump's tariffs.

---

If you need more help understanding the current political zeitgeist to avoid being taken in, I recommend the Simpsons episode Much Apu About Nothing.
 

sword_9mm

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governor Whitmer's nuanced position

Maybe that's the problem?

She should've just stood there on a tirade saying "Fuck Trump Fuck Tariffs Fuck trade wars Fuck Trump Fuck tariffs Trump and the Republicans are fucking garbage and need to go away Fuck Trump" then walk off stage.

You cannot do nuance. You have to make it so a 5 year old can understand.
 

invertedpanda

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Obesity rates might go down. Obesity rates in China went up as the middle class grew and more people moved to the service sector.
The desk job health risks can be compensated for, however, while back and lung issues from factory/refinery/mining/etc can't.

But yeah, I get you on the acerbic wit thing. I've sorta ran with it for my own work in some ways, but then again my general mood tends to still stay rather upbeat despite the gallows humor I tend to embrace (or, potentially, because of it).
 

Nvoid82

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I honestly don't think, given sane politics, HSR would be operating in California by now.

A lot of it is just NIMBY bullshit from the rich and that it just costs an arm and a leg to build anything rail related in the US.

I think given sane politics, the rich NIMBYs would be ignored and imminent domained as necessary, and the refusal or inability to do so would preclude sane politics by definition.
 

VividVerism

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Maybe that's the problem?

She should've just stood there on a tirade saying "Fuck Trump Fuck Tariffs Fuck trade wars Fuck Trump Fuck tariffs Trump and the Republicans are fucking garbage and need to go away Fuck Trump" then walk off stage.

You cannot do nuance. You have to make it so a 5 year old can understand.
Right wing influencers:

"When asked what she thinks about American manufacturing, Whitmer responded 'fucking garbage and need to go away'!"
 
Well, frankly, service jobs aren't all necessarily better than manufacturing ones. Sure, some people like it, but I don't think a lot of people are dreaming of making low wage at McDonalds. They just aren't easy to outsource.

Meanwhile, manufacturing doesn't have to be menial, shitty factory work. You can in-source the manufacturing that requires training and skill, and the rest will presumably be taken over by automation and robots if it isn't already.

Of course there are degrees of service jobs as there are manufacturing jobs. And no matter what, Trump's methods are completely orthoganol to getting more industry back to the US, because it requires planning, stability and decades of work. None of which Trump and his cabinet is capable of, or interested in doing.
Yes, I think this is the main thing.

Actually it is annoying that Republicans own the “get manufacturing back in America” idea now, given that

1) it would be good to do

2) they are just using it as an excuse for grifting

Getting some manufacturing back in the US would be nice. In any population, not everybody can be an information worker, even if we had a functioning education system here, lots of Americans just wouldn’t have the aptitude. This isn’t something special about Americans really, just, people have different types of brains and that’s fine.

Also, having too little manufacturing makes it harder to prototype things. And it robs even our engineers (information workers) of a culture of actually making physical products. Designs aren’t just imaginary blackboard things, we need a grounding in what is physically possible in scenarios other than CAD software.

The neoliberal vision where everybody in America is a manager, finance guy, or fast food worker sucks. The neoconservative solution of slapping tarrifs on things at random is not a serious response, though.
 

Shavano

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Like pretty much everything they say, it is all a lie. They are saying "look over there at the (immigrants / foreign workers / trans folk / women / liberals / brown people)! We will use extra-legal and extra-constitutional powers to get back the good things they took from you!"

As always, the mark thinks he is in on the scam, until he has been fleeced.
It requires people dumb enough not to say, "What do you mean THEY took that shit from me? That's my brother and sister and three of my neighbors."

Unfortunately we've got a lot of Americans who are that dumb.
 
Maybe that's the problem?

She should've just stood there on a tirade saying "Fuck Trump Fuck Tariffs Fuck trade wars Fuck Trump Fuck tariffs Trump and the Republicans are fucking garbage and need to go away Fuck Trump" then walk off stage.

You cannot do nuance. You have to make it so a 5 year old can understand.

Maybe?

If the Democrats want people to ever come back to them they need to be the Party of No right now. And also furthermore the party of nuh-uh, in your dreams, not in a million years, and get real buddy.

Except they can't bring themselves do that because either some of them are just sufficiently evil to vote for the "disenfranchise women" act (which just passed the house with 4 democrat votes in support, if you know a married woman now get her to check her birth certificate because if it doesn't have her married name she might be out of a vote if this one makes it to law), and some of them are so committed to bipartisanship they will absolutely seek productive compromise with Satan himself to divvy up the souls of the US population.
 
Yes, I think this is the main thing.

Actually it is annoying that Republicans own the “get manufacturing back in America” idea now, given that

1) it would be good to do

2) they are just using it as an excuse for grifting

Getting some manufacturing back in the US would be nice. In any population, not everybody can be an information worker, even if we had a functioning education system here, lots of Americans just wouldn’t have the aptitude. This isn’t something special about Americans really, just, people have different types of brains and that’s fine.

Also, having too little manufacturing makes it harder to prototype things. And it robs even our engineers (information workers) of a culture of actually making physical products. Designs aren’t just imaginary blackboard things, we need a grounding in what is physically possible in scenarios other than CAD software.

The neoliberal vision where everybody in America is a manager, finance guy, or fast food worker sucks. The neoconservative solution of slapping tarrifs on things at random is not a serious response, though.
Yeah, it is annoying, but that is because a large portion of the voting populace have no BS filter, and have been duped repeatedly. Of course liars are going to promise the same things that sincere reformers are trying to do, that is how the con works. The fundamental problem is that people see Trump talk about almost anything, and they don't recognize that he is a liar and a conman and can't be trusted. And Trump is just about as obvious a lying POS as it is possible to be - I mean, just this week he said "The tariffs are permanent, and they are negotiable." Nothing he says has any value.

But people seem unable to see him clearly, it is like they are drugged or hypnotized. I remember the 1992 Democratic primaries, there were like 15 candidates. I remember thinking 3-4 of them were good, some not so good, but Bill Clinton, I said "that guy is a liar, he is the one guy I wouldn't vote for". And yet...
 

GohanIYIan

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Maybe?

If the Democrats want people to ever come back to them they need to be the Party of No right now. And also furthermore the party of nuh-uh, in your dreams, not in a million years, and get real buddy.

Except they can't bring themselves do that because either some of them are just sufficiently evil to vote for the "disenfranchise women" act (which just passed the house with 4 democrat votes in support, if you know a married woman now get her to check her birth certificate because if it doesn't have her married name she might be out of a vote if this one makes it to law), and some of them are so committed to bipartisanship they will absolutely seek productive compromise with Satan himself to divvy up the souls of the US population.
I don't know what the deal is with the guy from Hawaii, but for the other three they're doing politics correctly. They've successfully held seats in red districts across multiple cycles and that requires some demonstrations of bipartisanship. Voter ID is popular with the mass public which makes it a good thing to break with the party on.
 
I don't know what the deal is with the guy from Hawaii, but for the other three they're doing politics correctly. They've successfully held seats in red districts across multiple cycles and that requires some demonstrations of bipartisanship. Voter ID is popular with the mass public which makes it a good thing to break with the party on.
While I don’t like to assume too much based on people’s gender, I do think disenfranchising married women is probably not a great move if you are a Democratic representative that wants to hold on in a red district.
 
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When someone is willing to lie about what you said, is it being bad at politics?
In the manner Whitmer is speaking and specifically on this topic? Yes. 100%.

It shows:
  • A lack of understanding of the media ecosystem.
  • A lack of understanding of one's opponents.
  • A lack of understanding how to effectively message.
  • A lack of understanding the current political moment and opportunity.
So, again... yes.

Being good at politics is successfully playing the game you're currently in order to change it to the one you wish you had.

Being bad at politics is playing the game you wish you had and then blaming inevitable failure on the blindingly obvious conditions being what they are.
 

SunRaven01

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Literally everyone in the media is talking about that, which is why you heard of it.

You're going to need to step up your game if you want to keep posting around here, or I'm going to sit back with a bucket of popcorn and watch the regulars keep eviscerating these gasbag posts.
 

Nvoid82

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Yeah, it is annoying, but that is because a large portion of the voting populace have no BS filter, and have been duped repeatedly. Of course liars are going to promise the same things that sincere reformers are trying to do, that is how the con works. The fundamental problem is that people see Trump talk about almost anything, and they don't recognize that he is a liar and a conman and can't be trusted. And Trump is just about as obvious a lying POS as it is possible to be - I mean, just this week he said "The tariffs are permanent, and they are negotiable." Nothing he says has any value.

But people seem unable to see him clearly, it is like they are drugged or hypnotized. I remember the 1992 Democratic primaries, there were like 15 candidates. I remember thinking 3-4 of them were good, some not so good, but Bill Clinton, I said "that guy is a liar, he is the one guy I wouldn't vote for". And yet...

I will continue to beat this horse until its heart beats again: it’s because of white supremacy. This is what white privilege looks like in its most basic form, the benefit of the doubt past any reasonable measure.
 

zakael19

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There's a lot of tribal burial sites, sacred lands, and archaeological sites that are in the way of such things. I mean the United States hasn't cared about any of it before now so they're probably never going to care.

As somebody who’s wife is in archeology/Cultural Resource Management - site surveys and the like are very much required and active and they’re governed by a patchwork mess of federal and state regulations.

AFAIK, environmental reviews (of which cultural artifacts are often a subset) are the thing most likely to be gutted in many states going forward with minimal enforcement under this Admin; and have in the past been the easiest way to get all NIMBY as well.

Concur with @Happysin and @Thank You and Best of Luck! that many of the classic “blue” states focus on stakeholder engagement and lack of deciding on behalf of the greater good has allowed bad actors to capture efforts to make things better, often with well intentioned policies being subverted. You only have to look at things like SF area NIMBY actors and how they maximize their ability to stall construction under state/city policy to see how that goes.

MN is probably our banner for a state that Got Shit Done with a minimal Dem majority. Tons of excellent policy in a short period of time, a housing policy that’s led to rents falling faster then all demographically adjacent localities, & etc.
 

Ionitor

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Literally everyone in the media is talking about that, which is why you heard of it.
I think there's also a level of acknowledgement from the left that Trump getting bribed in some way or another is inevitable when Republicans have made it abundantly clear that they don't care (and many actively encourage it). Since bribery doesn't directly harm vulnerable groups, they may as well focus their outrage on things that do.

Once they have any power to force investigations, then by all means they should do so. It's horrible, but it isn't likely to get much traction when the "fireworks" are being aimed in people's faces.
 
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MN is probably our banner for a state that Got Shit Done with a minimal Dem majority. Tons of excellent policy in a short period of time, a housing policy that’s led to rents falling faster then all demographically adjacent localities, & etc.
I think the lack of a solid majority is why shit got done. No comfort, no laurels to rest on.
 
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