Car dealers say they can’t sell EVs, tell Biden to slow their rollout

The US already lags far behind China and Europe, but we're going too fast, dealers say.

See full article...

 

[rosen380]

I'm glad to see that the four dealerships I've done any business with in the last 15 years (and have any intention of continuing that) are all absent from the list.

 

[rosen380]

https://www.nada.org/media/4695/download?inline
Grabbed the counts of dealerships from there to tie with the list of dealerships who signed onto this letter. Here are the states with the highest and lowest percent of dealerships signing:

63% Montana
51% Nebraska
46% Florida
46% Arizona
45% Nevada
42% Rhode Island
40% Utah
37% Alaska
37% New Mexico
34% Michigan
...
12% Vermont
12% Minnesota
12% Oklahoma
11% Maine
8% Pennsylvania
7% Louisiana
7% Delaware
6% Arkansas
5% West Virginia
3% Mississippi

[edit]
I grabbed the per capita EV registration rates by state (https://insideevs.com/news/656711/us-plugin-car-registrations-per-capita/) and perhaps interesting that putting states into three buckets (based on the per capita rates) actually has the higher adoption states with a larger percentage of dealerships signed on.

6.50%+ ... 29% of dealerships signed on
3.60-6.49% ... 20.2%
0.00-3.59% ... 20.2%

I guess I would have thought it was dealerships in low adoption states pushing this. Maybe in those higher adoption states, the dealerships over-estimated the EVs that they could sell and just bought too many?

 

[rosen380]

I might be reading the OPs initial comment wrong, but it doesn't sound like the HOA is against it, they just can't get the community on board with the increase in dues it would take to fund the project.

I'm a little surprised that the IRA or Bipartisan Infrastructure Act doesn't have funding for service upgrades to communities. Maybe if they can get another round going it's something that could be added, and while they are at it maybe they could require and fund L2 charging for multifamily structures.

That said, while it'll depend a bit on where, daily usage will tend to look something like:

If they aren't having brownouts like 12n-8p as it is, there is almost certainly plenty of room for some EV charging outside of that window.

And if it is a community where A/C is generally needed in the summer, the chart would suggest that outside of the summer there is a good chance they could do quite a bit of EV charging without time restrictions.

 

[rosen380]

My friend went to an EV ride and drive (w/ dealers involved) in October and the first two things out of the salesperson's mouth is:
1. Our MachE Mustang is really new technology and there are some bugs.
2. "I'm not sure the grid can handle a lot electric vehicles."

Back in 2013, I went to test drive the Chevy Volt and was questioned why I would want this vehicle (at that time it was the 2012 Car and Driver Car of the Year). And why are we giving rebates to car buyers.

Dealers suck.

I'd probably choose to, say, "excuse me," and walk away from that salesperson and up to another within earshot and restart the conversation.

Or I might interrupt the salesperson to find out who their supervisor is and have a chat with them instead. Depending on their opinion on what the salesperson said was, I'd probably choose a completely different dealership.

I think the most powerful tool you have at the dealership is a willingness to take an easy commission away from a salesperson and give it to one of their co-workers or a competitor.

 

[rosen380]

So when the electrician walks to your break box, feels that it's already warm, and says you need a service upgrade or he can't continue because it'll be unsafe.

Then the power company comes out to do a service upgrade and sees the transformer for your neighborhood is also currently fully loaded and a new distribution transformer and lines are needed - costing 25k USD.

This is a neighborhood shared resource on neighborhood right of way. Which means the HOA has to approve its installation and almost certainly more important - no one wants to spend 25k of HOA funds to install a new transformer so one guy can have a charger.

If he paid the 25k out of pocket, I bet they would have let him do it. But WTF, 25k to get a charger installed because your neighbors are cheap fuckers in 60 year old under powered houses. That EV now comes with a 25-30k surcharge to ... charge

"We, as a neighborhood, are on the brink of brownouts, but that's cool, let's just keep it this way," feels like the sort of neighborhood I'd want to leave.

If a decent number of homes are already wired from electric stoves and dryers, but are presently using gas, does the whole neighborhood go down when a small number of them switch? Or as global warming continues and more and more A/C is used, are they at risk for hitting their limit on the very hottest of days?

It feels to me like the upgrade makes sense for the neighborhood just for future-proofing.


In my old house, I got rid of the old oil furnace and replaced it with natural gas. Do you know when the electric company charged me to run the line from the street to my house? Nothing. My assumption is that they felt that adding a revenue stream was worth eating those costs.

Maybe the local electric company has more to gain by encouraging folks to switch to EVs and buy more electricity...? If there are 50 homes in the neighborhood and two each year add an EV where they are averaging an extra 10 kWh per day charging, then at $0.015/kWh profit per kWh, I get that it would take 18 years for them to break even (assuming 2.5% annual inflation on electricity costs and that those ultimately mean increased profit at a similar rate).

Granted, I wouldn't be happy to collect 0% interest on an 18 year "payment plan", though, they'd get to keep collecting indefinitely, so maybe that would help... and perhaps the $25k figure already includes a bit of profit itself.

 

[rosen380]

and considering she's been clobbered in a sedan 4 times by irresponsible drivers, (two text+drive ramming into her at a stoplight, 2 sideswiped by speeders in emotional support vehicles on a busy highway)

Your mom got hit by inattentive drivers far more often than what is typical (probably, I guess, you didn't give a timeframe).

If it was just "bad luck" or "wrong time in the wrong place", does ICE vs EV/PHEV/Hybrid make any (rational) difference? No, so this shouldn't be a factor.

Otherwise what is most likely? Is it that your mom is doing something on the road that is putting her in a position to be hit more by inattentive drivers? If so, I guess a "safer" car helps, but it might be better to think about how she gets in those positions and maybe change some habits to limit them?

 

[rosen380]

I'm just guessing here, but I'd bet if you look closely at the data you'd find that fewer people in Germany buy cars. Most use public transportation and those that are buying cars aren't as price sensitive. I'm guessing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita
Among countries with 20M+ cars, here are the per 1000 people rankings:

908 US
790 Canada
782 Australia
755 Italy
687 Poland
668 France
661 Japan
628 Germany
627 Spain
600 United Kingdom
526 South Korea
445 Brazil
395 Russia
391 Mexico
272 Turkey
221 China
82 Indonesia
59 India

 

[rosen380]

Cry me a fucking river. Seeing this news, I decided to spot-check Bolt EUVs in the area, hoping I could find a decent deal. I've been thinking of upgrading from our Volt for awhile but hadn't checked in because the prices were stupid in the past.

Checked six dealers, five of which were marking up all their Bolts by $3-6k over MSRP. One dealer looked like they were marking them up maybe a little but within acceptable levels (say $1-2k).

I checked the two nearest Chevy dealerships to me and between them they have two Blazer EVs and one Bolt EV, all three listed at MSRP (and neither was signed on to the document that this article is about).

 

[rosen380]

Twice she was at a red light stopped and was rear ended. Twice she was going the speed of traffic and had someone blow by her at 20 over and screw up, one ended launched out of their seat belt through the open window of their truck and ended up underneath their vehicle, he later died. The other was a hit and run. All four times she was in a sedan. All four times the drivers that hit her were in larger vehicles than hers. All four times she was ruled both not at fault and completely incapable of doing better than she did. In the two times she was hit at highway speed, both times she was told by the police that arrived that it was an absolute miracle that she'd not flipped her vehicle or hit anyone else.

Great! So the issue isn't that your mother is putting herself into bad situations, but bad luck. You still didn't mention the time-frame, but I don't even know a single person who has been in more than one major accident in their entire lifetime (granted, you also didn't specifically say how major, but it feels like you were suggesting major enough that the car was totaled and replaced, so that is the degree that I went with).

So the question I guess is then how much of a difference in your mother's "bad luck" do we expect to carry on into the future?

 

[rosen380]

I have yet to see an EV that makes me want to buy one on the spot - I'm just not feeling any enthusiasm. Hopefully something decent will show up in the next few years.

Out of curiosity, what sort of ICEs have you seen that made you want to buy them on the spot?

 

[rosen380]

None of them. I think I am a careful car buyer - I do a lot of research, watch videos, read specs and CR. It usually takes me a few months to decide what to get. When I bought my Honda CR-V in 2021 the search and buying process took about three months.

The point that I would like is that, even though I am generally enthusiastic about EVs, none of the EVs currently available are so superlatively good that it would cause me to change my car buying practices.

I am generally a fairly early adopter of technology: I had a WiFi network up and running in my house as early as 2000 and I bought an iPhone soon after it was introduced. Somehow when it comes to EVs, I just don't feel the same level of enthusiasm.

Same here! In fact, we bought a CR-V in 2021 (though got a better equipped leftover 2020 over a 2021). We started shopping October 2020 and didn't sign on the dotted line until January 2021.

That said, "I have yet to see an EV that makes me want to buy one on the spot - I'm just not feeling any enthusiasm" -- this gives off a vibe that it is EVs that have yet to give you a strong urge to just do it, while it sounds like it is more just cars in general.

Though I'd also say that for any large purchase, I think avoiding impulse buys is probably for the best.

 

[rosen380]

that they refuse to let customers who have solar sell it back to the grid at fmv.

What do you mean by FMV? Do you mean that if you are paying $0.12/kWh for electricity you buy, that they should pay you $0.12/kWh?

While that sounds nice, why would they pay YOU that much for your electricity, when they are likely spending half of that from their regular sources? If they pay a solar farm $0.06/kWh and the other $0.06/kWh you pay covers their expenses and profit, then $0.06/kWh to you to buy your excess would seem to be fair.

And I imagine there is some additional costs involved in setting up and maintaining the buyback system, so I guess I think it'd be fair for them to charge a little something extra for that (though $30-40 extra [per month?] would seem to be way over-the-top for that)

 

[rosen380]

To charge a home battery during the day and use it to charge the car you’d need a very large home battery. The RoI on that would be pretty crap.

If you drive like 40 miles per day and average around 250 wh/mile, that is 10kWh. Maybe you'd need more like 12 kWh figuring in losses.

This would work out nicely with a Powerwall unit, as they are 13.5 kWh each. From the Cleantechnica article from this past summer [1], you'd be looking at about $11,500 installed, before accounting for any state and federal tax credits that you might qualify for. Let's just go with $10k...?

Assuming that you are able to get most of your ~10 kWh per day out of it (enough panels to get that year round and your daily driving is enough to not leave it unused too often) and figuring about $0.15/kWh, I get 18 years. Ouch. Maybe more like 16-17 years, since I guess you'd get to use anything leftover for regular house stuff...? Still a long time to break even.

Hell, with that much use, did you even make it to 16-18 years without having to replace (or accept notable losses to capacity)?


But, maybe the combination of battery costs coming down and a future where used cells are more plentiful will shave off a lot from those costs and get us to a point where the break-even is soon enough to actually make financial sense?




[1] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/08/15/how-much-does-it-cost-to-have-a-tesla-powerwall-installed/

 

[rosen380]

It makes way more sense to charge the car during the day at work and use the car battery as a battery. Rather than use a battery to charge the car battery, which has a bit too much “yo dawg” energy to it.

I didn't claim otherwise-- I was responding to your comment of:
"To charge a home battery during the day and use it to charge the car you’d need a very large home battery. The RoI on that would be pretty crap."

I was just putting some numbers illustrating "the ROI would be crap".

I guess one thing that might flip this a bit was mentioned in the video linked in this thread, where the presenter was talking about the program with their electric company where they were able to pull small amounts of electricity from customer powerwalls rather than spinning up peaker plants. They mentioned that they got over $2000 for ~10 kWh over the course of a summer, which takes a pretty big bite out of the high ROI.


"It makes way more sense to charge the car during the day at work" --- sure, assuming that you have access to charging at work and still perhaps not depending on how it is priced.

 

[rosen380]

Then they'll just lie and say their car is an EV if challenged on it.

"OK, our mistake, let's go out to your car and show us where the charging port is on it?"

... and/or ...

"hmmm, it doesn't seem to be plugged in at the moment-- since you aren't using the spot to charge your car at this time, would you prefer moving it to another spot or having it towed to an impound lot?"

 

[rosen380]

Almost every spot is in front of a building. Sorry, I suppose I'm not fully capturing the picture here.

You mention taking the reserved spots and... they're already there with power, they are the "minigarage" strips I mentioned... which cost an extra hunder a month that I'm not willing to pay. That solution just makes electric vehicles even harder a sell for most of us here.

So they've already split up the parking into two segments; those with a mini-garage with 120v power and those without. Wouldn't the suggested change just be further segmenting the spots?

You'd then have:

• spots that are free for all residents to park in
• spots with garages that are limited to specific residents for specific spots
• spots with an L2+ charger that anyone can park in, so long as they are charging or accept being billed for the non-charging time (just like what happens with most public charging spots)

If there are literally no spots to spare, what happens when you have a guest? Where do they park? When I had an apartment, every apartment had one specific spot (all covered car-ports labelled with your apartment number) and there were a handful of uncovered spots that were a free-for-all. They might not have been particularly convenient, but those spots were your options if you had more than one car or were a guest.

 

[rosen380]

They're never even going to challenge anyone on it, most likely. I mean, if you were to ask me if this or that car is an EV or not, I wouldn't be able to tell you at a glance. It's like when someone says "what's the make and model of the car that hit you?" How the heck should I know?! I'm not a "car" person. Do you know how many different kinds of cars there are? There are dozens! Literally, dozens!

Assuming that the car owner has to pay for the kW they take, then it would work exactly like public charging stations.

You are:
1) plugged in and drawing power
2) plugged in and not drawing power (battery full) and being charged some kind of standing rate
3) not plugged in (and doesn't matter whether it is an EV or not)

For #1, then the person who is waiting just has to wait, no different than if all of the pumps are being used at the gas station.

For #2, the person there is paying (a generally hefty amount) to have their car occupy that spot. Maybe it is rude, but IMO they are paying for the privilege to be rude. What do we do about that? Maybe jack up the rates to a level that REALLY dissuades people from doing that? I'm OK with that, I suppose.

For #3, the person is just being a dick and blocking others from using the charger. Easy-peasy, call your towing service and the person can enjoy probably paying $200 to get their car back.

There is virtually no reason to require anyone involved to know which models are EVs and which ones aren't.

 

[rosen380]

Unfortunately, people frequently ignore permit parking.

I used to live in an apartment complex that had been converted into condos, complete with assigned parking. Because my parking place was closest to the building, people would frequently park in it. Once, someone parked in the driving lane behind my car, blocking me in for more than an hour.

So I wouldn't count on permit parking to solve the problem.

The apartment I lived in handed out permit stickers that you put in your back window that indicated which reserved spot was yours.

If someone was parked in my spot or someone was parked illegally, there was a phone number you could call and a tow truck would come and haul their car away.

Getting people to comply with parking rules is already a solved problem.

 

[rosen380]

Boats are wildly more practical than EVs for over 70% of the Earths surface.

Amphicar or Taylor Aerocar for the win!

 

[rosen380]

I understand of course the handicapped parking solution, and heck that might actually be a feasible version of it... except for people complaining. Everyone's "used to" handicapped parking, but not this "woke mindvirus" EV parking, as they will absolutely assuredly all call it separate and simultaneously in their own standalone complex.

Are they already complaining how unfair it is that some people get garages in particular areas? Or do they see it as, "if a person wants to pay $100, they get a place to store their vehicle, away from the elements, as well as a small amount of additional storage room."?

If the latter is reasonably representative, then I guess I'm not sure how a handful of EV parking spots is much different. Those are just particular areas for EV owners to temporarily put their car while buying electricity.



Just looked at an apartment complex near me and they have two banks of chargers (10 total, but only 6.5 kW). Looks like they "chose" to put them at the ends of two guest parking areas, so the exact sort of areas that people shouldn't complain about. Those filthy EV owners can drive to the ass-end of the complex, far from any complex amenities and likely far from their apartment, and then walk back in several hours to go retrieve their cars.

 

[rosen380]

Norway is an interesting example because they are lamenting how wildly inefficient EVs are now: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23939076/norway-electric-vehicle-cars-evs-tesla-oslo

I'm gonna be honest. This is never a winning argument on Ars. But I'd like you all to at least consider looking into the sources of the data you cite. Just...consider it.

Did you read that article? I'll admit I only skimmed it (will probably go back later tonight), but I didn't see where it was discussing how inefficient EVs are. Seemed to be more about Norway perhaps going overboard on subsidies and those subsidies more often going to the affluent over the poor.

 

[rosen380]

"ICEs often have multiple ones, because it looks cool" -- sure, sometimes that is the reason, but on actual performance cars they serve a purpose.

 

[rosen380]

Don't see too many actual performance cars, to be honest. Mostly just pimped up hatchbacks.

Doesn't change the fact that EVs don't have them at all.

I was responding to just what I quoted, so any other claims are irrelevant. And whether you see, any performance cars or not is also irrelevant as far as whether multiple exhaust pipes are a benefit to some cars or merely ornamental.

 

[rosen380]

Even the big cars weren't all that heavy. A 1970 Ford LTD is roughly 3800 lbs. Hilariously light weight compared to modern pickups.

https://www.conceptcarz.com/s26350/ford-ltd.aspx

1970 Chrysler Imperial Crown and LeBaron sedans were in the 4950-5000 pound range.
1970 Cadillac Sedan de Ville was 4850 pounds
1970 Lincoln Mark III was 4866 pounds

Not sure why the Ford LTD (and Galaxy 500 and Chevrolet Biscayne) were like 1000-1200 pounds lighter.

I guess some of it would be the former were luxury cars, but did they really have an extra 1000-1200 pounds of luxury?