2016 Elections, Part One

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30825943#p30825943:2o854bvx said:
Jhhnn[/url]":2o854bvx]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30825153#p30825153:2o854bvx said:
Tijger[/url]":2o854bvx]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30824767#p30824767:2o854bvx said:
barich[/url]":2o854bvx]Quality of life can hardly be reduced to how much shit you own.

I thought that was the modern day American way of measuring quality of life ;)
If we're taking that stance, then who cares about income equality? The poor can be perfectly content being poor, apparently. And according to the UN Americans will be pleased as punch to adopt Russian living standards.

EDIT: Removing some of the unnecessary snark.

Inequality isn't just about lifestyle. It's about economic power and political power. It means people at the top will create enormous systemic risk because they're impervious to it at a personal level. It's not like Wall St missed a meal because they crashed the economy but a lot of other people did.

Meanwhile, the mouthpieces of the right tell us that we should take personal responsibility for circumstances beyond our control but not beyond theirs. And they are somehow believed.

Yah. Inequalities of power were totally unheard of during the 1950s golden age. Particularly ones built around race or gender.
 

Shavano

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Oh shit!

FiveThirtyEight odds for Republicans
Florida: Trump 98%, Rubio 2% -- 99 delegates winner take all
Ohio: Kashich 87%, Trump 13% -- 66 delegates winner take all
North Carolina: Trump 89%, Cruz 11% -- 72 delegates proportional
Illinois: Trump 63%, Cruz 31%, Kasich 5% -- 69 delegates winner take all
Missouri: Trump 36%, Cruz 30%, Rubio 9%, Kashich 9% -- 57 delegates winner take all

So if the favorites win tomorrow, it will look more or less like this:
Cand....would...would
........have....need....% of remaining
Trump...685.....553.....48.2%
Cruz....360.....877.....81.5%
Rubio...152.....1085....100.8%
Kasich..120.....1117....103.8%

That's not attempting to divvy the take from North Carolina. If that's the way it goes, Rubio and Kasich would be mathematically unable to gain a majority and the only reason for them to remain in the race would be to try and split the vote so they can have power at the convention.
 
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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826349#p30826349:c6gmxlw7 said:
Shavano[/url]":c6gmxlw7]Oh shit!

So, at what point to people start to figure out what happens if Trump has a commanding lead into the nomination?

The Republicans would be very much between a rock and a hard place with Trump's willingness to run third party.
 
So, at what point to people start to figure out what happens if Trump has a commanding lead into the nomination?

Then they quietly go to having supported Trump all along. It starts tonight, with Hannity.

Just like tomorrow Sanders supporters will be explaining how they always knew Hillary would win but wanted to shape the narrative.
 
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826489#p30826489:2hi5821q said:
bombcar[/url]":2hi5821q]
So, at what point to people start to figure out what happens if Trump has a commanding lead into the nomination?

Then they quietly go to having supported Trump all along. It starts tonight, with Hannity.

Just like tomorrow Sanders supporters will be explaining how they always knew Hillary would win but wanted to shape the narrative.
Why one earth would Sanders supporters do that?

Isn't it more likely, if you read this space and buy what is being sold, that they will just get more annoying and then not vote for Hillary for spurious and illegitimate reasons that are evil and wrong?
 

fil

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826349#p30826349:3hwy39z7 said:
Shavano[/url]":3hwy39z7]Oh shit!

So if the favorites win tomorrow, it will look more or less like this:
Cand....would...would
........have....need....% of remaining
Trump...685.....553.....48.2%
Cruz....360.....877.....81.5%
Rubio...152.....1085....100.8%
Kasich..120.....1117....103.8%

That's not attempting to divvy the take from North Carolina. If that's the way it goes, Rubio and Kasich would be mathematically unable to gain a majority and the only reason for them to remain in the race would be to try and split the vote so they can have power at the convention.
That makes no sense. Odds are no one's going to win the nomination on the first vote at the convention. Kasich (or Rubio if he beats the long odds), if he wins his home state, will stay in the race because he wants to win the nomination on the second, or third, or fourth... vote.
 
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826469#p30826469:306evzyt said:
Syonyk[/url]":306evzyt]So, at what point to people start to figure out what happens if Trump has a commanding lead into the nomination?
I think the party has been thinking about it for a while now. Ever since Iowa or New Hampshire at least.

The first step is "prevent him from winning a majority of the delegates". If he manages a majority at the convention then there's nothing the party can really do about it. They don't start on the second step unless they can accomplish the first step, because they have no leverage without it.

If Kasich wins Ohio then they have a decent shot at denying Trump a delegate majority (according to 538 at least). So tomorrow is a big deal.

The Republicans would be very much between a rock and a hard place with Trump's willingness to run third party.
I don't think they'll go public with anything until the convention, unless they can come to a deal with Trump before then. They're definitely in a tough spot--they're probably going to be rebuilding the party (or creating a new one) soon. I would think they're better off making Trump run as a third party then giving him the nomination, but I don't know.
 

Faramir

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Texas, North Carolina, Illinois, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, Georgia, Delaware, Florida, Oklahoma, and South Carolina all have filing deadlines prior to Republican National Convention. Trump would have to file as an independent and go to the convention to try to win the nomination. It isn't realistic. Texas requires 80,000 signatures by May 9th.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_f ... candidates
 

JonTD

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30825817#p30825817:3q1tkic9 said:
barich[/url]":3q1tkic9]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30825213#p30825213:3q1tkic9 said:
JonTD[/url]":3q1tkic9]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30825153#p30825153:3q1tkic9 said:
Tijger[/url]":3q1tkic9]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30824767#p30824767:3q1tkic9 said:
barich[/url]":3q1tkic9]Quality of life can hardly be reduced to how much shit you own.

I thought that was the modern day American way of measuring quality of life ;)
If we're taking that stance, then who cares about income equality? The poor can be perfectly content being poor, apparently. And according to the UN Americans will be pleased as punch to adopt Russian living standards.

EDIT: Removing some of the unnecessary snark.

One can be perfectly happy without multiple televisions and a dishwasher. People have different priorities. If someone chooses to travel or go out with friends, and as a result can't afford an iPad and a 3rd TV and the 180 channel cable package, but wouldn't buy them even if they could, their quality of life isn't affected at all.

The problem with income inequality is that we are at a point where minimum wage doesn't even cover the most basic needs. Never mind any "wants." To suggest that everyone's standard of living was terrible in the '50s because they didn't have dishwashers, microwaves, and washing machines is ridiculous. Was it terrible in 2005 because nobody had a smartphone? Is it terrible today because we have to drive our own cars? What matters is relative. If 90% of people have dishwashers, and you want one and can't afford one despite working 80 hours a week and not spending money on anything unnecessary, that's a problem. If you choose to allocate your money elsewhere (say you eat out often, or you live alone and generate so few dirty dishes it doesn't seem worth it to you) that's not a problem.
So it doesn't matter what you can afford, except it does if it's relative? But minimum wage, even adjusted for inflation, is basically the same today? The mental gymnastics here. You don't have to get to have your cake and eat it, too Purchasing power of the lowest incomes has gotten better, not worse. Their ability to afford the "basics" HAS increased.

When's the last time you used an outhouse? Because in 1950 25% of Americans didn't even have a flush toilet. And I consider that a basic. I don't believe for a second Americans were actually happier. We just want to believe they were in an era where the poorest and disenfranchised were easily dismissed and ignored. When you were statistically silenced, you were totes happier, right? Because I couldn't hear your tears. Women were happier, gay people were happier, racial minorities were happier. Right?
 
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826555#p30826555:1kn4j7u2 said:
Faramir[/url]":1kn4j7u2]Texas, North Carolina, Illinois, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada, Georgia, Delaware, Florida, Oklahoma, and South Carolina all have filing deadlines prior to Republican National Convention. Trump would have to file as an independent and go to the convention to try to win the nomination. It isn't realistic. Texas requires 80,000 signatures by May 9th.

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_f ... candidates
Huh! I remember discussing that earlier in the thread but didn't look up the dates--I thought they were mostly post-convention.

Maybe that's the GOP plan, then: stay mum until the convention, get a brokered convention for Kasich or even Cruz (although they hate him) and Trump won't have a prayer. They'd still lose the election but their options are losing or rallying around Trump (and probably still losing).
 

Faramir

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30825817#p30825817:2ljkkbx4 said:
barich[/url]":2ljkkbx4]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30825213#p30825213:2ljkkbx4 said:
JonTD[/url]":2ljkkbx4]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30825153#p30825153:2ljkkbx4 said:
Tijger[/url]":2ljkkbx4]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30824767#p30824767:2ljkkbx4 said:
barich[/url]":2ljkkbx4]Quality of life can hardly be reduced to how much shit you own.

I thought that was the modern day American way of measuring quality of life ;)
If we're taking that stance, then who cares about income equality? The poor can be perfectly content being poor, apparently. And according to the UN Americans will be pleased as punch to adopt Russian living standards.

EDIT: Removing some of the unnecessary snark.

One can be perfectly happy without multiple televisions and a dishwasher. People have different priorities. If someone chooses to travel or go out with friends, and as a result can't afford an iPad and a 3rd TV and the 180 channel cable package, but wouldn't buy them even if they could, their quality of life isn't affected at all.

The problem with income inequality is that we are at a point where minimum wage doesn't even cover the most basic needs. Never mind any "wants." To suggest that everyone's standard of living was terrible in the '50s because they didn't have dishwashers, microwaves, and washing machines is ridiculous. Was it terrible in 2005 because nobody had a smartphone? Is it terrible today because we have to drive our own cars? What matters is relative. If 90% of people have dishwashers, and you want one and can't afford one despite working 80 hours a week and not spending money on anything unnecessary, that's a problem. If you choose to allocate your money elsewhere (say you eat out often, or you live alone and generate so few dirty dishes it doesn't seem worth it to you) that's not a problem.
It makes no sense to me to say that a dishwasher is in no way meaningful to a comparison of the relative well-being of a person circa 1956 to a person circa 2016, but is a basic need in 2016 unless you don't want one in which case it doesn't matter.

It seems like what you are saying is that jealousy makes people miserable, and rather than it being a vice that people should work to overcome, it is actually society's job to minimize jealousy by minimizing inequality. Is that what you are trying to get at?
 

Soriak

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826513#p30826513:388bxgdm said:
fil[/url]":388bxgdm]
That makes no sense. Odds are no one's going to win the nomination on the first vote at the convention.
If we take 538's "targets" (based on demographics) as our benchmark, then Trump is ahead of where he needs to be to secure the majority of delegates as of today. He's going to win Florida, but lose Ohio (both winner-take-all) -- so after tomorrow, he's probably going to be just about right on target. I'd say odds are that Trump is going to get the nomination on the first vote, or miss it only narrowly. And while someone like Cruz would have to convince all of Rubio's and Kasich's delegates to switch to him, Trump would need to convince only a few of them.
 

Shavano

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826469#p30826469:2yj7gof2 said:
Syonyk[/url]":2yj7gof2]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826349#p30826349:2yj7gof2 said:
Shavano[/url]":2yj7gof2]Oh shit!

So, at what point to people start to figure out what happens if Trump has a commanding lead into the nomination?

The Republicans would be very much between a rock and a hard place with Trump's willingness to run third party.

Scenario: Trump goes to the convention with a commanding lead (upwards of 1000 delegates.

If they nominate somebody else (Cruz, at worst) then if Trump runs third party, it's a slaughter. Hillary (or Bernie) wins in a landslide and Democrats take back the Senate. If Trump goes home, so do half his voters and it's a slaughter. Hillary (or Bernie) wins in a landslide and Democrats take even more of the Senate and Congress.

If they run Trump, they get Trump policies (shudder) but the Senate and the House maybe aren't such a disaster for them.

So they run Trump. Republicans are bad at government but they're not bad at math.
 

Shavano

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826513#p30826513:2cjop8dq said:
fil[/url]":2cjop8dq]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826349#p30826349:2cjop8dq said:
Shavano[/url]":2cjop8dq]Oh shit!

So if the favorites win tomorrow, it will look more or less like this:
Cand....would...would
........have....need....% of remaining
Trump...685.....553.....48.2%
Cruz....360.....877.....81.5%
Rubio...152.....1085....100.8%
Kasich..120.....1117....103.8%

That's not attempting to divvy the take from North Carolina. If that's the way it goes, Rubio and Kasich would be mathematically unable to gain a majority and the only reason for them to remain in the race would be to try and split the vote so they can have power at the convention.
That makes no sense. Odds are no one's going to win the nomination on the first vote at the convention. Kasich (or Rubio if he beats the long odds), if he wins his home state, will stay in the race because he wants to win the nomination on the second, or third, or fourth... vote.


The table's going to tilt after tomorrow's results. Nobody can give odds at this point whether Trump will have a majority at the convention.
 

Soriak

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826619#p30826619:1pho1yhl said:
Faramir[/url]":1pho1yhl]
It seems like what you are saying is that jealousy makes people miserable, and rather than it being a vice that people should work to overcome, it is actually society's job to minimize jealousy by minimizing inequality. Is that what you are trying to get at?
I'm willing to bet people at 200% the median household income are equally unsatisfied with what they have as people at 50% the median household income. If you use people's subjective beliefs about what they should have as a benchmark, then you won't get anywhere. Actually, you end up with Bhutan being the happiest country in the world. A country that abolished slavery in 1958, only 5 years ago had its first democratically elected government, and where religious freedom doesn't exist.
 
This discussion has really good insight as to why the polling is so off this cycle:

Well, because for a poll to be accurate, it first must sample the correct universe of people to give a true snapshot. Pollsters build models based on assumptions -- educated assumptions, but still assumptions -- about who they believe will vote in the coming election.
This is even more important today than ten or twenty years ago, as response rates to polls have fallen off a cliff, leading pollsters to rely increasingly on modeling.
 

Faramir

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826513#p30826513:38atqft4 said:
fil[/url]":38atqft4]
That makes no sense. Odds are no one's going to win the nomination on the first vote at the convention.
If we take 538's "targets" (based on demographics) as our benchmark, then Trump is ahead of where he needs to be to secure the majority of delegates as of today. He's going to win Florida, but lose Ohio (both winner-take-all) -- so after tomorrow, he's probably going to be just about right on target. I'd say odds are that Trump is going to get the nomination on the first vote, or miss it only narrowly. And while someone like Cruz would have to convince all of Rubio's and Kasich's delegates to switch to him, Trump would need to convince only a few of them.
Many of them won't be "his" delegates. If he gets to the convention short of a majority he needs to get enough unpledged delegates to win on the first ballot. If it gets to a second round, all bets are off.
 

wco81

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826697#p30826697:3fh6agkx said:
Soriak[/url]":3fh6agkx]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826619#p30826619:3fh6agkx said:
Faramir[/url]":3fh6agkx]
It seems like what you are saying is that jealousy makes people miserable, and rather than it being a vice that people should work to overcome, it is actually society's job to minimize jealousy by minimizing inequality. Is that what you are trying to get at?
I'm willing to bet people at 200% the median household income are equally unsatisfied with what they have as people at 50% the median household income. If you use people's subjective beliefs about what they should have as a benchmark, then you won't get anywhere. Actually, you end up with Bhutan being the happiest country in the world. A country that abolished slavery in 1958, only 5 years ago had its first democratically elected government, and where religious freedom doesn't exist.

It's hard to quantify yet there are a lot of lists. This list has all wealthy countries:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/galle ... countries/

While this one considers "financial situation" as only one of the five factors on which they come up with the score, so they have a lot of developing world countries on the list:

http://www.livescience.com/51327-happie ... -list.html

Meanwhile, Lifehacker used COL data to reindex the Princeton finding that earning more than $75k does not bring more happieness. Hmm in Hawaii you need more than twice the national median:

http://lifehacker.com/the-perfect-salar ... 1605278164
 
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826513#p30826513:kftyldd6 said:
fil[/url]":kftyldd6]
That makes no sense. Odds are no one's going to win the nomination on the first vote at the convention.
If we take 538's "targets" (based on demographics) as our benchmark, then Trump is ahead of where he needs to be to secure the majority of delegates as of today. He's going to win Florida, but lose Ohio (both winner-take-all) -- so after tomorrow, he's probably going to be just about right on target. I'd say odds are that Trump is going to get the nomination on the first vote, or miss it only narrowly. And while someone like Cruz would have to convince all of Rubio's and Kasich's delegates to switch to him, Trump would need to convince only a few of them.

Remember. The candidate does not select the delegates. They are pledged to the candidate but they are top party wonks. So, they might not actually like Trump. If Trump does not win first ballot, then it will be a bunch of wonks selecting the winner -- not a favourable situation for Trump.
 

Soriak

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826733#p30826733:4d5kzszl said:
tjones2[/url]":4d5kzszl]
Remember. The candidate does not select the delegates. They are pledged to the candidate but they are top party wonks. So, they might not actually like Trump. If Trump does not win first ballot, then it will be a bunch of wonks selecting the winner -- not a favourable situation for Trump.
Some ballots I saw had different names for the different candidates and voters would vote for particular delegates. Maybe this differs by state? Otherwise, wouldn't it be the same people irrespective of the candidate?

bombcar":4d5kzszl said:
This discussion has really good insight as to why the polling is so off this cycle:
The polls have been pretty good so far and they were spot on in 2008 and 2012. The answer reminds me of unskewedpolls. It's not like polls are underestimating Trump's performance in the primaries, either.
 
^ Yeah I think the Michigan Democratic primary has been the only really egregious miss so far...we'll see if Ohio is similar though.

[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826691#p30826691:jsdjksmo said:
Shavano[/url]":jsdjksmo]If they nominate somebody else (Cruz, at worst) then if Trump runs third party, it's a slaughter. Hillary (or Bernie) wins in a landslide and Democrats take back the Senate. If Trump goes home, so do half his voters and it's a slaughter. Hillary (or Bernie) wins in a landslide and Democrats take even more of the Senate and Congress.

If they run Trump, they get Trump policies (shudder) but the Senate and the House maybe aren't such a disaster for them.
I don't think this math checks out. If Trump is the nominee a lot of Republicans are going to stay home, hurting the down-ballot races--I don't think the party will rally around him and I'm sure that a lot of moderate voters won't. They don't like Hillary so they'll just stay home.

But if he runs third party, then you get the moderate Republicans turning out for Kasich and the Trumpers turning out on top of them, and who else are they going to vote for when it comes to the Senate and House?

The GOP has already started planning for that scenario--the Congressional campaigns will boil down to "you'll need to elect us so we can stop Hillary". A third-party run from Trump might actually help their efforts at keeping the Senate.

If Trump just decides to stay home, I'm not sure what happens. I doubt that he'd do it but then again Faramir pointed out that he wouldn't get on the ballot in a lot of states.
 
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826753#p30826753:hqm2v2hw said:
Soriak[/url]":hqm2v2hw]Some ballots I saw had different names for the different candidates and voters would vote for particular delegates. Maybe this differs by state? Otherwise, wouldn't it be the same people irrespective of the candidate?
When you have a question about the primary process the answer is always "it varies by state". :flail:
 
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826603#p30826603:1g0bz2j6 said:
JonTD[/url]":1g0bz2j6]Purchasing power of the lowest incomes has gotten better, not worse. Their ability to afford the "basics" HAS increased.

dishwashers and TVs aren't "basics". they may have been luxuries at one point, but now you can get a TV for $20 on Craigslist or rent a terrible apartment as an un/underemployed recent graduate that has a dishwasher (which is older than you and probably either leaks or is broken beyond repair)

"basics" are food, housing, healthcare, and utilities (which now includes some form of internet because of the increasing number of low-wage jobs that only accept online applications, and good luck doing that if you aren't within walking distance of a public library). 15% of Americans are on foodstamps, 22% are on Medicaid/CHIP with an additional 12% uninsured, 63% don't have enough savings to cover a $1000 unexpected expense, and 60% reported having at least some anxiety about their financial situation with half of those being bad enough to lose sleep over it.

the insurance numbers are the only ones that have improved significantly since the financial crisis despite the stock market being up like 50% since then, and that wouldn't have happened without the ACA.

edit: relevant Lucky Ducky comic strip
6efkMQp.gif
 

Faramir

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826753#p30826753:16y2yfe7 said:
Soriak[/url]":16y2yfe7]Some ballots I saw had different names for the different candidates and voters would vote for particular delegates. Maybe this differs by state? Otherwise, wouldn't it be the same people irrespective of the candidate?
When you have a question about the primary process the answer is always "it varies by state". :flail:
It is indeed a giant mess. But the long and short of it are that about 25% are selected by the campaigns and the rest are selected by other means. The processes tend to favor establishment candidates and those with strong and broad ground games.
 

Soriak

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826787#p30826787:234cd5m5 said:
+Griz[/url]":234cd5m5]
15% of Americans are on foodstamps, 22% are on Medicaid/CHIP with an additional 12% uninsured,
The first two aren't particularly problematic. Food stamps are a transfer payment that isn't inherently different from the EITC, except that it's not given as cash. We wouldn't point to the percentage of people who benefit from the EITC, even though that's a welfare program as well. Medicaid just got an expansion, so even an increasing number on it isn't a sign of things getting worse. And 12% uninsured is as low as it's been.

63% don't have enough savings to cover a $1000 unexpected expense, and 60% reported having at least some anxiety about their financial situation with half of those being bad enough to lose sleep over it.
Only 7% say they couldn't cover an unexpected $1000 expense, according to the source of the first article. "Not having enough savings" in the article includes people who say they would reduce other spending, which seems like a perfectly legitimate response even if you have savings. Similarly, charging something on a credit card may be smarter than liquidating stocks: carrying $1k debt for 1-2 months comes with an insignificant interest cost. There's plenty of data showing that people have money in their savings account while simultaneously carrying credit card debt (a mystery in itself) so saying they would charge it does not mean they don't have cash on the side.

About losing sleep: if you look at the survey, there are 5 responses and only one is that you don't lose sleep, with the other 4 stating that you have lost sleep because of your finances at some point. I don't see this as a sign of massive financial distress...

the insurance numbers are the only ones that have improved since the financial crisis despite the stock market being up like 50% since then, and that wouldn't have happened without the ACA.
Most Americans don't own any stocks, especially not outside of restricted accounts like a 401(k). So it's not surprising that stock market performance doesn't benefit most people directly. Even when you have stocks, it's not like the value of your portfolio directly impacts your current consumption. I'd wager that nobody adjusts their retirement withholdings based on a monthly evaluation of their portfolio... you stick with some percentage of your income and expect contributions to average out. That means current consumption is fairly disconnected from the value of the portfolio -- right up until someone is preparing to retire.
 

kcisobderf

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"So it doesn't matter what you can afford, except it does if it's relative? But minimum wage, even adjusted for inflation, is basically the same today? The mental gymnastics here. You don't have to get to have your cake and eat it, too Purchasing power of the lowest incomes has gotten better, not worse. Their ability to afford the "basics" HAS increased."

Minimum wage has not kept up with inflation.

minwage_2008_1.png


*Food* has gotten cheaper since the early 70s, but housing, medical care, and college has gotten much more expensive.
 

NavyGothic

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Lets not forget that polling has been out for quite a few states; Clinton's ~48 points win in South Carolina springs to mind, which was about 25 points larger than polling suggested. It's not as newsworthy as Michigan because Clinton still won, but the Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally so it's just as relevant to the actual nomination.

Primary polling seems to be really hard in general. Australian pollsters have a trivially easy job by comparison :p
 
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826847#p30826847:6og3cq0p said:
Soriak[/url]":6og3cq0p]The first two aren't particularly problematic. Food stamps are a transfer payment that isn't inherently different from the EITC, except that it's not given as cash. We wouldn't point to the percentage of people who benefit from the EITC, even though that's a welfare program as well. Medicaid just got an expansion, so even an increasing number on it isn't a sign of things getting worse. And 12% uninsured is as low as it's been.
1/3 of the population being on government aid for the poor is not very good for the richest country in the world, regardless of how much worse it used to be. also "one in five kids below the poverty line" hasn't changed at all since Bad Religion put that line in a song from 1996.

Only 7% say they couldn't cover an unexpected $1000 expense, according to the source of the first article. "Not having enough savings" in the article includes people who say they would reduce other spending, which seems like a perfectly legitimate response even if you have savings. Similarly, charging something on a credit card may be smarter than liquidating stocks: carrying $1k debt for 1-2 months comes with an insignificant interest cost. There's plenty of data showing that people have money in their savings account while simultaneously carrying credit card debt (a mystery in itself) so saying they would charge it does not mean they don't have cash on the side.
I can't find the details on that survey but "reduce other spending" seems to imply setting up a payment plan or putting it off as long as possible without being sent to collections instead of just paying it off immediately. I'm also assuming that this includes people like me who consider their checking account as savings because the interest rate sucks either way, so you might as well just dump everything into one bucket instead of having to micromanage two accounts with the possibility of a single overdraft fee wiping out the tiny gain you got from having an actual savings account.
Most Americans don't own any stocks, especially not outside of restricted accounts like a 401(k). So it's not surprising that stock market performance doesn't benefit most people directly. Even when you have stocks, it's not like the value of your portfolio directly impacts your current consumption. I'd wager that nobody adjusts their retirement withholdings based on a monthly evaluation of their portfolio... you stick with some percentage of your income and expect contributions to average out. That means current consumption is fairly disconnected from the value of the portfolio -- right up until someone is preparing to retire.
where's the "trickling down" that the GOP has been promising for decades? the white working class was doing sort of ok up until the financial crisis, now they're suffering with no signs of improvement so I don't know why all the pundits are acting like they're surprised by people opting for Trump instead of more of the same lies.
 

Soriak

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826921#p30826921:ym0l4wl0 said:
kcisobderf[/url]":ym0l4wl0]
Minimum wage has not kept up with inflation.

minwage_2008_1.png
Well, the red line is in 2008 dollars, so by definition it's going to be above the blue line up until 2008, when the two lines meet. But there's also something off about the graph: the red line shouldn't hit $10. Here's the figure for up to 2014: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... imum-wage/

FT_15.05.20_minWage_1938_2014.png


What this shows is that the current real minimum wage is fairly high historically, about 10% below its peak from the late 60s.
 

Da Xiang

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And 12% without any health insurance is simply unacceptable. That's one out of every 8 people. That's still about 40,000,000 people in the U.S. Some form of single payer, be it Medicare for all, something patterned after one of the other developed nations that already has single payer, or something brand new and innovative is fine with me.
 

Soriak

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30827019#p30827019:akmvj5uv said:
+Griz[/url]":akmvj5uv]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826847#p30826847:akmvj5uv said:
Soriak[/url]":akmvj5uv]The first two aren't particularly problematic. Food stamps are a transfer payment that isn't inherently different from the EITC, except that it's not given as cash. We wouldn't point to the percentage of people who benefit from the EITC, even though that's a welfare program as well. Medicaid just got an expansion, so even an increasing number on it isn't a sign of things getting worse. And 12% uninsured is as low as it's been.
1/3 of the population being on government aid for the poor is not very good for the richest country in the world, regardless of how much worse it used to be. also "one in five kids below the poverty line" hasn't changed at all since Bad Religion put that line in a song from 1996.
Why is that a problem? More than half of all households in Switzerland receive assistance to pay for health insurance. That just means a household with an income of $100k and 2 kids still gets some transfer payments (they are, of course, net payers still). The percentage also relies on a pretty narrow definition of assistance, given that we could also include mortgage-related tax breaks and lower capital gains tax rates as government aid -- and eventually, just about 100% of the population benefits from some handout or another. (The cost of these things is actually accounted for as "mobility spending," even if it does more to reduce mobility.)

Only 7% say they couldn't cover an unexpected $1000 expense, according to the source of the first article. "Not having enough savings" in the article includes people who say they would reduce other spending, which seems like a perfectly legitimate response even if you have savings. Similarly, charging something on a credit card may be smarter than liquidating stocks: carrying $1k debt for 1-2 months comes with an insignificant interest cost. There's plenty of data showing that people have money in their savings account while simultaneously carrying credit card debt (a mystery in itself) so saying they would charge it does not mean they don't have cash on the side.
I can't find the details on that survey but "reduce other spending" seems to imply setting up a payment plan or putting it off as long as possible without being sent to collections instead of just paying it off immediately. I'm also assuming that this includes people like me who consider their checking account as savings because the interest rate sucks either way, so you might as well just dump everything into one bucket instead of having to micromanage two accounts with the possibility of a single overdraft fee wiping out the tiny gain you got from having an actual savings account.
That's not what the question asks -- it's linked in your article: http://www.bankrate.com/finance/consume ... -1215.aspx (warning: auto-play video). First, the survey only asks millenials, so not households as a whole. Respondents can choose how they would handle an unexpected emergency expense of about $1,000 and the options are (1) savings, (2) reduce spending, (3) use a credit card, and (4) borrow from friends or family. Note that paying with a credit card doesn't even imply not paying it off by the end of the month... but only 12% pick that option anyway. I don't think it's surprising that people in their 20s would turn to their parents if such an expense hit -- for reasons entirely unrelated to poverty. These responses don't imply at all that people are one unexpected expense away from being homeless.

Most Americans don't own any stocks, especially not outside of restricted accounts like a 401(k). So it's not surprising that stock market performance doesn't benefit most people directly. Even when you have stocks, it's not like the value of your portfolio directly impacts your current consumption. I'd wager that nobody adjusts their retirement withholdings based on a monthly evaluation of their portfolio... you stick with some percentage of your income and expect contributions to average out. That means current consumption is fairly disconnected from the value of the portfolio -- right up until someone is preparing to retire.
where's the "trickling down" that the GOP has been promising for decades? the white working class was doing sort of ok up until the financial crisis, now they're suffering with no signs of improvement so I don't know why all the pundits are acting like they're surprised by people opting for Trump instead of more of the same lies.
"Trickle-down economics" has no connection to anything resembling economics -- it's not surprising that political propaganda ends up not actually working in practice. But it's ok, because they can always say it just hasn't been tried hard enough, or for long enough, and if people could just hold out longer, salvation is coming up... not how economics works, alas. But I also don't see that people did all that better up to the financial crisis. They might have had more access to debt (although if I add up the limits on my credit cards today, I get double my annual income), but they certainly didn't have more savings. If someone was about to retire when the financial crisis hit, they would have not only recovered their losses, but realized some decent gains by now. The only way you got screwed over is if in the middle of the crash, you just decided to sell all your stocks for no good reason.

In any case, the median 401(k)/IRA savings for a household about to retire is somewhere around $5,000. So even if they lost half their savings, it's not like that has a practical impact. It certainly did affect people with assets in the top 50%, but they're not usually the people we talk about when it comes to poverty -- or the term itself becomes meaningless and everyone gets to be poor.
 

Soriak

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30827027#p30827027:2wjucotj said:
Da Xiang[/url]":2wjucotj]And 12% without any health insurance is simply unacceptable. That's one out of every 8 people. That's still about 40,000,000 people in the U.S. Some form of single payer, be it Medicare for all, something patterned after one of the other developed nations that already has single payer, or something brand new and innovative is fine with me.
According to this study by the Kaiser Family Foundation, 63% of people without health insurance did not attempt to gain ACA coverage and half of them are estimated to be eligible for free or subsidized insurance. Short of the government just signing these people up and directly deducting premiums, if applicable, from their paychecks, there isn't a whole lot you can do. Moreover, of the uninsured, 20% are not US citizens. Those who are not lawful residents don't have easy access to health insurance... but that's true in every country. They're simply not counted elsewhere.

Then you have states that turned down loads of federal funds just so they did not have to extend Medicaid to people who are slightly less poor than the current cutoff and so there's a gap in which people have too high an income to get Medicaid but too low an income to qualify for some of the subsidies (or cannot afford the plan even with the subsidies). The federal government cannot fix such disfunction at the state level ("we'll pay for it" is as good as it's going to get) and as long as voters (many of them poor) vote for the guys who promise to keep Obummercare away and dedicate their resources to stopping gay marriage, that's not going to change.
 

Da Xiang

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30827063#p30827063:35xsfff6 said:
Soriak[/url]":35xsfff6]
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30827027#p30827027:35xsfff6 said:
Da Xiang[/url]":35xsfff6]And 12% without any health insurance is simply unacceptable. That's one out of every 8 people. That's still about 40,000,000 people in the U.S. Some form of single payer, be it Medicare for all, something patterned after one of the other developed nations that already has single payer, or something brand new and innovative is fine with me.
According to this study by the Kaiser Family Foundation, 63% of people without health insurance did not attempt to gain ACA coverage and half of them are estimated to be eligible for free or subsidized insurance. Short of the government just signing these people up and directly deducting premiums, if applicable, from their paychecks, there isn't a whole lot you can do. Moreover, of the uninsured, 20% are not US citizens. Those who are not lawful residents don't have easy access to health insurance... but that's true in every country. They're simply not counted elsewhere.

Then you have states that turned down loads of federal funds just so they did not have to extend Medicaid to people who are slightly less poor than the current cutoff and so there's a gap in which people have too high an income to get Medicaid but too low an income to qualify for some of the subsidies (or cannot afford the plan even with the subsidies). The federal government cannot fix such disfunction at the state level ("we'll pay for it" is as good as it's going to get) and as long as voters (many of them poor) vote for the guys who promise to keep Obummercare away and dedicate their resources to stopping gay marriage, that's not going to change.

And a universal single payer program solves all of this. I think you are wrong about a lot of other countries. I know many countries will certainly pay for medical services for legal visitors needs. I have received free emergency room treatment for an injury that required 15 stitches when vacationing in rural British Columbia a while back. But this is better suited for the healthcare reform thread. I'll not pursue further in this thread.
 
[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30826941#p30826941:vq3m0tnu said:
NavyGothic[/url]":vq3m0tnu]Lets not forget that polling has been out for quite a few states; Clinton's ~48 points win in South Carolina springs to mind, which was about 25 points larger than polling suggested. It's not as newsworthy as Michigan because Clinton still won, but the Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally so it's just as relevant to the actual nomination.

Primary polling seems to be really hard in general. Australian pollsters have a trivially easy job by comparison :p

I'd be nice if HRC could widen her lead by at least 100.
 

Skoop

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/// OFFICIAL MODERATION NOTICE ///

We're getting far afield here. Let's take the continuation of the healthcare discussion to the dedicated thread because we're now discussing it generally rather than specifically according to the candidates.

The economics and lifestyles of the 1950s-70s business has moved beyond the scope of this thread, too. So let's bring it back to today's primaries and related stories.
 
Today's primaries!

When Trump wins all of them, do the others stay in? If Rubio loses Florida does he bow out? Does Sanders insist he can still win after getting crushed today? Does Hillary lose in a huge upset that somehow still leaves her widening the delegate gap? Is the entire economy of Ohio dependent on campaign advertising? Would Donald J. Trump's hair poll higher than some of the other candidates? Will anyone notice the only two people against TPP are Trump and Sanders?
 

Bagheera

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I listened to Bernie's stump speech in Ohio yesterday. He bashed CAFTA, NAFTA, TPP, and MFN with China. Paraphrasing, "Hillary supported all of these trade deals, and I voted against every single one of them. Not only did I vote against them, I was the leader of the opposition to all of them!"

So I made my primary vote for Hillary this morning. Sanders is a great candidate, and I think he would be a great president. I agree with him on almost everything, but on free trade he's just dead wrong (IMO).
 

Bagheera

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[url=http://meincmagazine.com/civis/viewtopic.php?p=30827495#p30827495:37n8lf5u said:
Skoop[/url]":37n8lf5u]
Sanders":37n8lf5u said:
I was the leader of the opposition to all of them!
Is that true?

I doubt he was the "leader of the opposition." But he has made clear that he's opposed to the free trade concept. If Bernie had his way, we'd have protective tariffs on damn near everything.

It seems weird to me how free trade has switched from a Democrat issue to a Republican issue. I remember Bill Clinton promoting NAFTA while Ross Perot made his "giant sucking sound." Twenty years later, it's the Republicans that are promoting free trade and Democrats that are fighting against it.
 
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