Analysis of Texas measles outbreak shows just how dangerous virus is

rm0659

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RFK Jr. is a demon sent from hell..
but without a nomination by the president and the complicity of all the republican senators he'd just be another crank with a lame podcast.

oh yeah, and talking about rfkjr means we're not looking at the epstein files, so mission accomplished.
 
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Purple Cow

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We need study of the effects of weakened immune systems in these measles survivors; subsequent infections and so on.
The studies have been done, and the effect is known as measles immune amnesia. The virus weakens the patient's immune memory, making them more likely to die of other infectious diseases for two or three years.

There's also a small chance that the patient will later develop a rare but almost always fatal brain inflammation called sub-acute sclerosing pan encephalitis.
 
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I once had to work backstage at a Tim Allen standup, back before COVID. And I did actually have to pay attention to the man and the act...50 straight minutes of him carrying on about how great life in the 1950s was.

Note....he was born in 1953. So he was at most 7 years old during that time he was carrying on about how great life was. Which, yea. When you have your parents paying for your room/board and loving you, life is pretty great. But that is called being 7 years old--not living in the 1950s.
Worked on one of his productions in LA. He's a hardcore right winger. Every time he would say something, everyone, including the top people (producers, the director, the execs on hand) would roll their eyes.
 
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Jupitor13

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We don't have healthcare in America. We have health insurance. It is a financial instrument.
You pay a deductible.
You can buy extra coverage.
You have to go to an approved facility.

Car insurance and health insurance are two sides of the same coin. They are both exactly the same as listed above.

We all do, in skyrocketing Healthcare costs.
 
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Bernardo Verda

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Trump supporters will go down as the most brainless brainwashed idiots in history.

Well, they do have some competition.
For example, all those unrepentant Brexiteers in the UK, and Silvio Burlusconi supporters in Italy, among others, still come to mind.

How does that saying go? Ah yes...
"A smart man learns from his mistake; a wise man learns from the mistakes of others."
 
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The Lurker Beneath

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Do you have statistics for that, or just your gut feel? I'm old enough to remember those bleak days also, and my gut feel says that a similar number died. My parents immunized their children as soon as vaccines were available. Fortunately, my younger siblings didn't have to suffer.

https://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/history.html
In 1912, measles became a nationally notifiable disease in the United States, requiring U.S. healthcare providers and laboratories to report all diagnosed cases. In the first decade of reporting, an average of 6,000 measles-related deaths were reported each year.

A vaccine became available in 1963. In the decade before, nearly all children got measles by the time they were 15 years old. It is estimated 3 to 4 million people in the United States were infected each year. Among reported measles cases each year, an estimated:

  • 400 to 500 people died
  • 48,000 were hospitalized
  • 1,000 suffered encephalitis (swelling of the brain)
 
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Robin-3

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Back in the days when everyone got measles (including me) a much smaller fraction were hospitalised.
I think it's much more likely that what you're seeing here is patients with very mild cases (in last year's outbreak) not being accurately reported/counted.

This is a writeup of only known cases, in an environment where many who refuse vaccines see themselves as anti-establishment (and understand that their position isn't in alignment with standard medical recommendations... hell, in some cases it seems to fuel their persecution fantasies).

I'd bet money that lots of anti-vax parents whose kids had mild cases didn't report them to anyone outside their own social circle, and certainly not The Medical Establishment (TM). I'm a little surprised that so many non-hospitalized cases were actually reported.

What you seem to be advocating for, btw, is a return to hundreds of easily preventable children's deaths annually. Even the "safer" stats you pointed to (e.g. here) point to 400-500 annual deaths, 48k hospitalizations, and 1,000 cases of encephalitis, as a fraction of the population in the early 1960s.

The current US population is roughly 340,000,000 (vs. 179,000,000 around 1960, very roughly). So assume nearly double the number of easily preventable deaths, hospitalizations, and cases of encephalitis per year, mostly in kids.

That's still rare enough for any one individual to feel like "it's not so bad," if you don't look at population-level data. But the population data is readily available. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess you were a kid in the pre-vaccination days, rather than a parent worrying about your own kids' health.
 
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The Lurker Beneath

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I think it's much more likely that what you're seeing here is patients with very mild cases (in last year's outbreak) not being accurately reported/counted.

This is a writeup of only known cases, in an environment where many who refuse vaccines see themselves as anti-establishment (and understand that their position isn't in alignment with standard medical recommendations... hell, in some cases it seems to fuel their persecution fantasies).

I'd bet money that lots of anti-vax parents whose kids had mild cases didn't report them to anyone outside their own social circle, and certainly not The Medical Establishment (TM). I'm a little surprised that so many non-hospitalized cases were actually reported.

What you seem to be advocating for, btw, is a return to hundreds of easily preventable children's deaths annually. Even the "safer" stats you pointed to (e.g. here) point to 400-500 annual deaths, 48k hospitalizations, and 1,000 cases of encephalitis, as a fraction of the population in the early 1960s.

The current US population is roughly 340,000,000 (vs. 179,000,000 around 1960, very roughly). So assume nearly double the number of easily preventable deaths, hospitalizations, and cases of encephalitis per year, mostly in kids.

That's still rare enough for any one individual to feel like "it's not so bad," if you don't look at population-level data. But the population data is readily available. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess you were a kid in the pre-vaccination days, rather than a parent worrying about your own kids' health.

What do you imagine I am "advocating" for? Pointing out apparent discrepancies in the statistics is not advocating anything. I think measles vaccination is a very good thing; that doesn't mean I need to nod along to every assertion about its benefits. If the assertion can be supported with argument, then we all learn something.
 
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-19 (1 / -20)
Sadly the people that need to read these facts won't read them. All they do is rant on Facebook in some echo chamber that just makes them dumber by the year. Morons like this aren't reading science articles that's for sure. It's facebook for the boomers and instagram/tik tok for the rest of the morons.
 
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Well, they do have some competition.
For example, all those unrepentant Brexiteers in the UK, and Silvio Burlusconi supporters in Italy, among others, still come to mind.

How does that saying go? Ah yes...
"A smart man learns from his mistake; a wise man learns from the mistakes of others."

And a stupid man does his best to provide all possible examples for the wise man to learn from.
 
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2 (3 / -1)
I got measles in the last big pandemic in the 1960s. 500,000 people got measles. 50,000 required medical intervention. 5000 suffered chronic permanent damage to their health. And 500 died.

Most of the chronic damage was to the brain due to encephalitis. Measles use to be the leading cause of deafness in the US. It was the leading cause of birth defects.

it is ironic that some of the encephalitis cases resulted in autism or autism like symptoms. This mean more people “got autism” from not getting the vaccine and contracting measles then got it from the measles vaccine
 
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beautox

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Veritas super omens

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Well, they do have some competition.
For example, all those unrepentant Brexiteers in the UK, and Silvio Burlusconi supporters in Italy, among others, still come to mind.

How does that saying go? Ah yes...
"A smart man learns from his mistake; a wise man learns from the mistakes of others."
The willfully ignorant learn nothing from anyone or anything.
 
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The Lurker Beneath

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Measles vaccination reduced child mortality by almost half in some countries. It turns out that getting a disease that erases your immune system is bad for kids.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37482223/

I don't fully understand the figures in the abstract, but they seem to be arguing that the vaccination has an effect regardless of subsequent measles infection...
 
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I doubt their license would vanish, but their ability to accept insurance would.
Think the insurance is paying for them now??

What we need is specific documentation of what lead to the exemption. Look at what happens when docs want some expensive test or procedure--they have to show the insurance company why they think that's the best route. Put something like that on vaccine exemptions.
 
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I think it's much more likely that what you're seeing here is patients with very mild cases (in last year's outbreak) not being accurately reported/counted.

This is a writeup of only known cases, in an environment where many who refuse vaccines see themselves as anti-establishment (and understand that their position isn't in alignment with standard medical recommendations... hell, in some cases it seems to fuel their persecution fantasies).

I'd bet money that lots of anti-vax parents whose kids had mild cases didn't report them to anyone outside their own social circle, and certainly not The Medical Establishment (TM). I'm a little surprised that so many non-hospitalized cases were actually reported.
Aha! That makes a lot of sense. Measles is bad but 20% hospitalization seems high.
What you seem to be advocating for, btw, is a return to hundreds of easily preventable children's deaths annually. Even the "safer" stats you pointed to (e.g. here) point to 400-500 annual deaths, 48k hospitalizations, and 1,000 cases of encephalitis, as a fraction of the population in the early 1960s.
Is there any indication of why measles went from killing 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000?
That's still rare enough for any one individual to feel like "it's not so bad," if you don't look at population-level data. But the population data is readily available. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess you were a kid in the pre-vaccination days, rather than a parent worrying about your own kids' health.
And humans are terrible at evaluating low probability scenarios. Especially if they don't have scientific training in some field. I've tried getting through by comparing it to other human activities of comparable risk--live without the measles vaccine, or ride a rocket into orbit.
 
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I don't fully understand the figures in the abstract, but they seem to be arguing that the vaccination has an effect regardless of subsequent measles infection...
Yeah, there's something strange going on. It looks rather like the adjuvants in some vaccines seem to have some sort of benefit beyond the vaccine they were used with, but this hasn't been confirmed yet.
 
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Robin-3

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<>

Is there any indication of why measles went from killing 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000?

<>
I'm interested in what anyone else thinks on this, but I have guesses.

First is what I suggested before about hospitalization rates: I expect that many mild cases of measles during this outbreak went unreported. The populations most impacted already are known for (and in some cases have built their identity around) distrust of mainstream medical advice and sometimes "the establishment" in general.

So I could be wrong, but my suspicion is that there were significantly more cases than those officially reported. Especially for milder cases, where it's easier to believe there's no need to report anything and in fact this "proves" an anti-vax belief that measles isn't a real threat.

Also, a group of between 500 and 1000 known cases (in this outbreak) is enough to start drawing some conclusions, but really isn't enough to be confident if you're trying to sus out whether a disease is killing 1/500 or 1/20,000 people (or somewhere in between, much more likely). At this level, what you see in terms of number of deaths could just be sampling weirdness. (Albeit tragic and almost certainly preventable, too.)
 
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Caillebotte

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Is there any indication of why measles went from killing 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 1,000?

One possibility is that, before the vaccine, the most susceptible people died before reproducing. In contrast, with the vaccine, more susceptible people survived long enough to have children, and those children, being also more susceptible, have a higher risk of dying if not vaccinated.

People tend to forget that both hosts and pathogens undergo evolutionary changes. Humans have to ability to alter the environment in useful ways, but stupidity can also result in less useful alterations in the effective environment that individuals experience.
 
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beautox

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taxythingy

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That or many of them are now calling for research into a means where they can be exposed to a weakened form of the virus so that their immune system can learn to fight it safely.

No, I'm not shitting you. These anti-vax dipshits are now calling for research to develop vaccines.
Please link a citation to that - it's a bold claim and i didn't find it on a short search.
 
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dagar9

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Tinkiewinkle said:
I doubt their license would vanish, but their ability to accept insurance would.
Think the insurance is paying for them now??
What would likely happen is that the quack would lose their ability to accept insurance for anything, not just for that particular vax. It's simpler for the insurance company to just drop them from the approved vendor list.
 
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That or many of them are now calling for research into a means where they can be exposed to a weakened form of the virus so that their immune system can learn to fight it safely.

No, I'm not shitting you. These anti-vax dipshits are now calling for research to develop vaccines.
Do you have a link?

Not because I don't believe you, but because I want to bask in the sheer irony.
 
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