Thriving on Mars will be challenging, but we have some time to meet those challenges. It might take, say, 100 years. The idea is for Mars to become a going concern, so that it just continues on its own whatever happens to Earth. Meanwhile if the Earth situation changes rapidly — for example due to asteroid strike, pandemic, nuclear war, biowar, nanotech grey goo, or whatever future disaster, man-made or natural, we can barely imagine today — we may have very little time to adapt. And while any single event may not itself make us extinct, it may knock us far enough back that the next one does.There is almost nothing that could conceivably happen on or to earth that would make it LESS habitable than a planet like Mars. [...]
That is the point most people don't pay attention to. In the steady state, earth, no matter what we likely do to it (other than nuclear war), will be a better environment than Mars. But, short term (centuries) shocks to the system of earth can kill us off or set us back to cave dwelling nomads.Thriving on Mars will be challenging, but we have some time to meet those challenges. It might take, say, 100 years. The idea is for Mars to become a going concern, so that it just continues on its own whatever happens to Earth. Meanwhile if the Earth situation changes rapidly — for example due to asteroid strike, pandemic, nuclear war, biowar, nanotech grey goo, or whatever future disaster, man-made or natural, we can barely imagine today — we may have very little time to adapt. And while any single event may not itself make us extinct, it may knock us far enough back that the next one does.
Maybe it was just too easy of an opportunity to pass up. Starlinks are maneuverable, have excellent communication access, they're already launching the same size and mass. The capability was just sitting there almost fully developed already. Adding a couple lights and cameras is cheap and easy. If anything unexpected came up on this or a future test flight, being able to take a quick peek could be invaluable.I got the impression that it was an early trial of a long-term capability. They may be planning ahead for when Starship is crewed, and when aborting to orbit for rescue by another Starship is an option. They may also be remembering when the Space Shuttle's tiles were hit by a chunk of ice, and they could not easily inspect the damage. They would rather not be in that situation again.
I don't think it does at all. earth will always (at least for as far as anyone can predict) be the best location for people to live.The issue with this narrative is that it implies added value for humans to prioritise survival of the species on another planet at the expense of people living here and now.
Such comparisons are not entirely flattering. StarShip has been launched 12 times, and has not completely succeeded once, and looks set fair for a few more iterations yet. Saturn V - a similarly large rocket (albeit one with different goals - but pretty novel in its day) was far more successful. Why? NASA then had a firm belief in proper systems engineering, design analysis, etc, and pretty much nailed it. Also, Blue Origin did things the traditional, studied way and pretty much got it right first time. Elon Musk seems to think that you can dispense with systems engineering and design analysis - at least to a large degree - and iterate one's way to success. It's not really working out well for SpaceX...
If Epstein invented the cure for cancer, comments saying "too bad he was a kiddie-diddler" would never be tiresome or be useless.It'd be nice if Ars would step up moderation of completely useless comments on the SpaceX articles, the people who have nothing better to do than make comments which contribute nothing because Elon Bad are really tiresome.
I mean you aren't wrong in the technical sense, but only because the person you are responding to talked about the earth being enveloped.Whatever is living on earth at that point will have had more time to evolve than from bacteria to human.
You would not recognise it.
As a brit, I long for days past when we had a little of something approaching the national pride that existed in my youth. Europeans have been pummelled into hating their nations over the past decades, it's horrendously depressing.I threw up in my mouth, just a little bit, at the "USA" chant.
Makes me really want to root against them.
The issue with this narrative is that it implies added value for humans to prioritise survival of the species on another planet at the expense of people living here and now.
Mars is a fun long term project for science and exploration but it can’t happen until we resolve the very real social and economic challenges here on Earth.
In other words, MechaHitler and its sugar daddy are currently detracting from space exploration as a goal.
I guess you could argue NASA paid for it, but by that logic NASA has never sent anyone to space, US citizens have since they pay taxes which fill NASA's pockets.
The amount of stupidity some deranged individuals possess to downvote a comment which so obviously makes sense is mindboggling.It's kind of silly to use the threat of climate change as an argument for settling other planets. No matter how bad climate change gets, the easiest planet to survive on is going to be this one. Antarctica is easier to settle than Mars. It has significantly more sunlight than Mars, and provides easy access to water and oxygen. And it's relatively warm, compared to Mars. If we can't survive on a climate-changed Earth, Mars is much harder.
If we are set back to cave dwelling nomads, that STILL makes earth an infinitely more habitable planet than Mars.That is the point most people don't pay attention to. In the steady state, earth, no matter what we likely do to it (other than nuclear war), will be a better environment than Mars. But, short term (centuries) shocks to the system of earth can kill us off or set us back to cave dwelling nomads.
The most common types of those shocks (asteroids and comets and mega volcanos) are fairly common and the only real way to ensure civilization survives is having it in 2 places so humanity on earth can be supported and re seeded from the outside if some massive shock occurs.
These things aren't common, but there is evidence that it may have happened as recently as 10k years ago. That is a drop in the bucket in time.
True. But without the knowledge to recover, we are looking at a 10k year recovery timeline. With the knowledge and bootstrapping, we are looking at rapid civilization recovery.If we are set back to cave dwelling nomads, that STILL makes earth an infinitely more habitable planet than Mars.
So Columbus shouldn't have sailed to the new world (I could maybe agree with this) until the old world's social problems were resolved in full?
Wait, what?!
I agree - I expect the propellants were sloshing violently.I think the flip manoeuvre was the issue. It seemed to flip sideways instead of up (relative to camera view) like the previous starship flights. The booster then falls away with engines partially relighting and subsequently shutting down. I’d say they must have been sucking gas at this point.
If they see damage, they might adjust their re-entry trajectory (shallower or steeper), or wait another orbit or two to reduce the necessary cross-range divert. They might adjust the Starship's attitude (shifting the damaged area a bit leeward) during the early part of re-entry (when temperatures are highest, but before there's significant drag/lift). If they have propellant to spare, they could use some to reduce their re-entry velocity. If nothing else, they could learn enough to improve the next version Starship.I don't quite understand why this is important for flight decision making. As diagnostic data for confirming why a ship was lost, sure, yes, that's still quite useful. But if the Ship is going to be lost, it's not like there's some rescue plan that will save it for less than the cost of just manufacturing a new one, and the way that landings work, they aren't targeting the launch site until they've confirmed engine relight, so if it fails it will crash into the ... oh, hmm, I see. It's only the booster that reenters from the oceanic direction. The ship arrives at Boca Chica from the East, meaning that it fundamentally has to pass over a lot of populated land (even if it dodges major population centers).
So I guess if the inspection shows that Starship is missing enough heat tiles to have significant risk of failure during reentry, they are going to target open ocean to reduce the risk of it failing over land? It's not about reducing the risk of losing a Starship. It's about reducing the risk of a Starship failure scattering debris over land. I wonder what the decision threshold will be. Is a 1% chance of failure over land enough to dump a 99% survivable Starship in the ocean?
Better get used to it, because the way the ones that were chosen by the people in the USA to be their representatives are behaving, that acronym is well on its way to be associated with nothing but negativity.This launch was an achievement for the United States and its engineering prowess, that's simply a fact. I disagree with lots of governments, but I wish the best for the Chinese, Russian, or North Korean people, and cheer on Soyuz launches and China's manned spaceflight program as well. All of those wins in peaceful spaceflight are wins for humanity. I'm certainly not going to complain about Russians or Chinese celebrating their country at these events.
If you're so far gone with your disgust towards current policy that you're willing to root against 350 million people, I don't know what to say. I imagine you can differentiate between benign and malicious policy in other countries. So why is America singled out for such reflexive hatred? If you're so far gone with your disgust towards current policy that you're willing to root against 350 million people, I don't know what to say. Would you also get upset when people cheer on China's HSR by waving Chinese flags? Or do you recognize that's a human achievement that benefits everyone?
Sooner or later the time comes to leave the cradle.
Claiming asteroid impacts or volcanoes capable of wiping out human civilization are common is complete nonsense. The latter claim of a major extinction event "may have happened" 10k years ago is -- show your evidence.That is the point most people don't pay attention to. In the steady state, earth, no matter what we likely do to it (other than nuclear war), will be a better environment than Mars. But, short term (centuries) shocks to the system of earth can kill us off or set us back to cave dwelling nomads.
The most common types of those shocks (asteroids and comets and mega volcanos) are fairly common and the only real way to ensure civilization survives is having it in 2 places so humanity on earth can be supported and re seeded from the outside if some massive shock occurs.
These things aren't common, but there is evidence that it may have happened as recently as 10k years ago. That is a drop in the bucket in time.
If we are set back to cave dwelling nomads, that STILL makes earth an infinitely more habitable planet than Mars.
Not necessarily. Yes, the Sun will expand, but the Earth could be moved before that happens. Every asteroid that flies past Earth changes it's own and the Earth's orbit. Since the Earth is much more massive, it's orbit doesn't change much.we know that the sun will one day expand and envelope the earth,
Airliners have plenty of emergency landing and early flight abort modes and options. Starship has none: either both the ascent and landing are 100% successful, or it's a 100% fatality event.
I actually respectfully disagree with your last sentence about increasing emphasis on impact defense. IMO, detection is improving quite well, with a US congressional mandate, and, for example, theI don't think it does at all. earth will always (at least for as far as anyone can predict) be the best location for people to live.
Taking out fire insurance doesn't mean I want to torch my house...
I DO wish we would spend a lot more resources on mapping near earth asteroids and comets and developing more robust defenses against them in case we detect something on a collision course
You are arguing broadly against expansion and in favor of steady-state stagnation. Stagnation is not "thriving". Sustainability and dignity are important and valuable, but don't preclude exploration and expansion. A fundamental drive of the human condition is to seek and revel in novelty. That isn't "sci-fi brained nonsense": it's quintessentially human nonsense.Ignoring the fact that lines like this and "BECAUSE WE CAN!!!" aren't exactly making a strong case for spaceflight as an economic or practical priority - what makes you think that "leaving the cradle" means "setting up colonies in dead hellish rocks" rather than "figuring out how to thrive in our own home in a sustainable manner that promotes the dignity of the human person and doesn't depend on constant expansion"? Maybe a mature humanity says "this is good, and this is enough" rather than a bunch of sci-fi-brained nonsense about frontiers.
Yeh, several pages late. Too bad.Because we won't survive over any reasonable time as a species unless we get off the planet in quantity, and we cannot afford to lose momentum (as we already did once in the 20th). Of course it's fun too. But the important thing is not to die off as a species because we were too lazy, distracted or stupid to do hard things.
I'll go further, and claim with confidence that our ultimate daughter (or at worst, great-great-...-great-granddaughter) species won't even be biological. It's rather obvious where it's all eventually headed: the long-term future, and especially the future in space, belongs to intelligent machines.Yeh, several pages late. Too bad.
Unless there is a literal Earth-shattering kaboom, or we somehow engineer a plague with a 100% mortality rate and a R0 of 100, we're not going anywhere. There won't be 8 billion of us by the time the shouting's over, but we won't go extinct. Even with the worst projections of climate change some people (on the order of a few hundred million) will survive; the planet's surface will not be rendered completely uninhabitable. Life may suck for those few hundred million people for a few thousand years, but they'll be here.
By the time the Sun goes red giant we'll be long gone whether we stay here or go to other planets. Our daughter species, their daughter species, etc. etc., will long since have died out.
So this isn't about survival as a species. Survival as a culture, yeah, okay, maybe, but that culture won't survive more than a few decades. Living in tin cans will require cultural changes, everything from what and how we eat to handling the dead.
I'll go further, and claim with confidence that our ultimate daughter species won't even be biological. It's rather obvious where it's all headed: the long-term future, and especially the future in space, belongs to intelligent machines.
You have absolutely no idea whether that's true, because there is no way you could have any sort of experience. Unless you're God and you happened to have observed many intelligent species rise and fall. Otherwise, we should err on the side of conservatism and hedge our bets.Yeh, several pages late. Too bad.
Unless there is a literal Earth-shattering kaboom, or we somehow engineer a plague with a 100% mortality rate and a R0 of 100, we're not going anywhere. There won't be 8 billion of us by the time the shouting's over, but we won't go extinct. Even with the worst projections of climate change some people (on the order of a few hundred million) will survive; the planet's surface will not be rendered completely uninhabitable. Life may suck for those few hundred million people for a few thousand years, but they'll be here.
By the time the Sun goes red giant we'll be long gone whether we stay here or go to other planets. Our daughter species, their daughter species, etc. etc., will long since have died out.
So this isn't about survival as a species. Survival as a culture, yeah, okay, maybe, but that culture won't survive more than a few decades. Living in tin cans will require cultural changes, everything from what and how we eat to handling the dead.
I think you're probably right, but the more interesting idea is that we may become the machines ourselves (transmigration) rather than just knuckling under to toasters. The devil's always in the details.I'll go further, and claim with confidence that our ultimate daughter (or at worst, great-great-...-great-granddaughter) species won't even be biological. It's rather obvious where it's all eventually headed: the long-term future, and especially the future in space, belongs to intelligent machines.
You can actually watch an engine RUD on the booster during the flip maneuver. The booster had flipped around enough for the ship's camera to catch it. It took out a significant number of its neighbors.
Unfortunately this means their removal of engine shielding might not be wise. V2 with its engine shields may have been able to survive such an engine RUD.
View: https://x.com/DJSnM/status/2058030864379129921
I mean you aren't wrong in the technical sense, but only because the person you are responding to talked about the earth being enveloped.
The earth has (cosmic scale) very little time left of being inhabitable but complex life. We are closer to the end of complex life than we are the beginning of the dinosaurs. 150 million years maybe 500 at most before complex life can't exist here in any quantity.
I'm not sure that changes how relevant today's time frame is lol, but I think it's interesting because the planet is toast way before red giant phase.
And what's so "absolutely horrifying" about it? We are intelligent machines too, but based in biochemistry as our fundamental substrate. Biochemistry is fine for [contemporary] Earth surface, but the farther you get from Earth's surface or the contemporary environmental norms, the less suitable and sustainable biochemistry becomes. A space-dwelling civilization would highly benefit from adopting a more robust and more versatile substrate.What an absolutely horrifying prediction.
I don’t know what the throttle settings are for each moment of flight. If they weren’t full throttle to launch 40 tons to this trajectory, then they can throttle up the remaining five. They lost one sixth of the engines, but maybe not one sixth of the thrust.Ah, that i didn’t know, interesting. But i was rather referring to that despite losing one sixth of its thrust, starship seems to have been able to compensate? Or should we perhaps under that with all vac engines functional, it would’ve gone event higher initially?
No, there is the ignore function to take care of that. Goodbye.If you are at no risk of forgetting his flaws, it is part of your burden in life to bear the stream of reminders for those who are.