Florida’s new surgeon general skeptical of vaccines, opposes masks

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Great news to hear that they've appointed a grown up, especially as it seems to have wound up many of the top comment posters.

So, “owning the liberals” is more important than good healthcare?

Got it!

Strange that the people who are trying to shut down scientific debate are considered liberals. Science is immutable unfortunately scientific opinion appears to be quite malleable especially when you have to satisfy the person paying your wages.

Pre-Covid the Great Barrington Declaration was consistent with the scientific consensus. Also the scientific consensus was that masks were bad. Admittedly scientific consensus gives me an ulcer but then again I am a scientist and part of my job used to be working out when academics were merely trying to meet their publication quotas.

Dude. You don't even understand high school statistics. Lols.
 
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Lt_Storm

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Great news to hear that they've appointed a grown up, especially as it seems to have wound up many of the top comment posters. Given the scientific illiteracy of much of the scientific establishment it's no wonder the world is full of people who've failed Maths and believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1lyggPhWOM

Holy shit.

" believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. "

How. Just how? Are you that dumb?

well you know there is always some natural limit that stops exponential growth therefore exponential growth never really happened, this idiot, probably
 
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Great news to hear that they've appointed a grown up, especially as it seems to have wound up many of the top comment posters. Given the scientific illiteracy of much of the scientific establishment it's no wonder the world is full of people who've failed Maths and believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1lyggPhWOM

Holy shit.

" believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. "

How. Just how? Are you that dumb?

No I have a first in Maths whereas you obviously failed the subject.

"a first"??? Have you ever been to school?!
 
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Great news to hear that they've appointed a grown up, especially as it seems to have wound up many of the top comment posters. Given the scientific illiteracy of much of the scientific establishment it's no wonder the world is full of people who've failed Maths and believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1lyggPhWOM

Holy shit.

" believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. "

How. Just how? Are you that dumb?

well you know there is always some natural limit that stops exponential growth therefore exponential growth never really happened, this idiot, probably

The only time I've ever seen exponential growth as a solution to an equation is when someone has simplified a term. In epidemiology this typically means assuming a constant reproduction rate. For a nuclear chain reaction it means that setting off an atom bomb results in the whole universe blowing up and this discussion forum thus being some form of quantum fluctuation in the resulting soup?

Alternatively just don't believe a solution that goes to infinity when resources are finite actually solves the problem.

You do realize that for virus spread to not be exponential a person would have to come into contact with only 1 other person ever?
 
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Lt_Storm

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Great news to hear that they've appointed a grown up, especially as it seems to have wound up many of the top comment posters. Given the scientific illiteracy of much of the scientific establishment it's no wonder the world is full of people who've failed Maths and believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1lyggPhWOM

Holy shit.

" believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. "

How. Just how? Are you that dumb?

well you know there is always some natural limit that stops exponential growth therefore exponential growth never really happened, this idiot, probably

The only time I've ever seen exponential growth as a solution to an equation is when someone has simplified a term. In epidemiology this typically means assuming a constant reproduction rate. For a nuclear chain reaction it means that setting off an atom bomb results in the whole universe blowing up and this discussion forum thus being some form of quantum fluctuation in the resulting soup?

Alternatively just don't believe a solution that goes to infinity when resources are finite actually solves the problem.

Let's be frank here: nobody is going to be impressed with the numeracy of someone who says "it's not really an exponential curve, it's a logistic curve" but doesn't realize that the first part of the logistic function is approximately exponential, and therefore anyone who is describing that phase of growth as being "exponential growth" is neither wrong nor innumerate.

To put this clearly: when you look at the scientific establishment and say "I know more about math than they do", you aren't revealing your knowledge but, instead, your lack of knowledge. You are falling victim to Dunning Kruger.

Oh, and incidentally, every single human on earth catching the deadly plague isn't what one would sanely describe as a 'solution' to the problem of the deadly plague.
 
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KGFish

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Wow. Surely you're jesting? You're telling us epidemics die out naturally? No one has ever observed that before! That's amazing! We can all go home and not worry about getting sick anymore!

Oh.... wait. Something doesn't feel right. I want to say there's a fourth option to being infected or immune or not yet infected during a pandemic. Stunned? Pining for the fjords? Someone help me out here.
 
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Great news to hear that they've appointed a grown up, especially as it seems to have wound up many of the top comment posters. Given the scientific illiteracy of much of the scientific establishment it's no wonder the world is full of people who've failed Maths and believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1lyggPhWOM

Holy shit.

" believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. "

How. Just how? Are you that dumb?

well you know there is always some natural limit that stops exponential growth therefore exponential growth never really happened, this idiot, probably

The only time I've ever seen exponential growth as a solution to an equation is when someone has simplified a term. In epidemiology this typically means assuming a constant reproduction rate. For a nuclear chain reaction it means that setting off an atom bomb results in the whole universe blowing up and this discussion forum thus being some form of quantum fluctuation in the resulting soup?

Alternatively just don't believe a solution that goes to infinity when resources are finite actually solves the problem.

You do realize that for virus spread to not be exponential a person would have to come into contact with only 1 other person ever?

Lazy thinking. Assuming people meet at random then the probability of an infected person meeting another person who isn't infected or immune is monotonically decreasing. This has been incorporated into Mathematical models since at least 1927 with the natural result that an epidemic dies out before everyone gets infected because of herd immunity.

There is a difference between exponential growth and INFINITE exponential growth. Of course the growth eventually stops when resources run out. Until then, it's exponential.
 
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Ozy

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Lazy thinking. Assuming people meet at random then the probability of an infected person meeting another person who isn't infected or immune is monotonically decreasing. This has been incorporated into Mathematical models since at least 1927 with the natural result that an epidemic dies out before everyone gets infected because of herd immunity.

Yes, everyone knows that. However, the difference between 'everyone' and 'enough to hit herd immunity' is pretty fucking small for a disease with the R0 of the Delta variant, especially if the immunity from natural infections isn't 100% lasting forever.
 
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Let's be frank here: nobody is going to be impressed with the numeracy of someone who says "it's not really an exponential curve, it's a logistic curve" but doesn't realize that the first part of the logistic function is approximately exponential, and therefore anyone who is describing that phase of growth as being "exponential growth" is neither wrong nor innumerate.

To put this clearly: when you look at the scientific establishment and say "I know more about math than they do", you aren't revealing your knowledge but, instead, your lack of knowledge. You are falling victim to Dunning Kruger.

Oh, and incidentally, every single human on earth catching the deadly plague isn't what one would sanely describe as a 'solution' to the problem of the deadly plague.

An SI model gives the logistic curve whereas people recover from Covid. Unfortunately the scientific establishment is full of people willing to stray outside their area of expertise when asked their opinion.

"All models are wrong, but some are useful". George Box. Exponential models go very wrong very quickly.

Covid is nothing compared to the plague.

Covid IS a plague.
 
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Lt_Storm

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Let's be frank here: nobody is going to be impressed with the numeracy of someone who says "it's not really an exponential curve, it's a logistic curve" but doesn't realize that the first part of the logistic function is approximately exponential, and therefore anyone who is describing that phase of growth as being "exponential growth" is neither wrong nor innumerate.

To put this clearly: when you look at the scientific establishment and say "I know more about math than they do", you aren't revealing your knowledge but, instead, your lack of knowledge. You are falling victim to Dunning Kruger.

Oh, and incidentally, every single human on earth catching the deadly plague isn't what one would sanely describe as a 'solution' to the problem of the deadly plague.

An SI model gives the logistic curve whereas people recover from Covid. Unfortunately the scientific establishment is full of people willing to stray outside their area of expertise when asked their opinion.

"All models are wrong, but some are useful". George Box. Exponential models go very wrong very quickly.

Covid is nothing compared to the plague.

So, since the troll is doubling down on eating his foot, I suppose it's time to treat the troll like a troll and discuss how these arguments are supposed to work and what they imply. We will start with the point that he is arguing for but generally doesn't mention much: Covid isn't that bad. Given that the official death count for the pandemic is now over 650,000 Americans, this point is difficult to argue for. So he doesn't.

Instead he argues the next point: "logistic functions aren't really exponential" the unstated point, again, being "therefore Covid isn't that bad". To do this, he must ignore that, no matter how well you model disease propagation, the first phase of propagation, before the inflection point is reached, is well described by an exponential curve, and that this means that the exponential logic where 1 is about as close to 10 as 10 is to 100 still applies. This is a bait and switch tactic, the hope is that we can be convinced to discuss math rather than a pandemic that killed hundreds of thousands of Americans.

Next it's worth noting how he responded to being called out for sucking on his foot offensively. That, rather than taking his foot out of his mouth, he is on the offensive by effectively claiming that epidemiologists commenting on epidemiology are "experts willing to stray outside their area of expertise when asked about their opinion"*. I mean, the science communicators understand that their job is to play the parrot: find the expert talking about his field, and then repeat whatever that expert has to say.

This tactic is based on the idea that appearance beats substance. If he is always on the offensive and we are always explaining why he is a moron, then, long after the argument is over, and people have forgotten the details, they will still remember the dynamic and given that dynamic, it feels like he won. So, he tries to create a dynamic wherein his comments are short, quippy, and, most importantly, on the attack.

He has hardly made a post that doesn't include an accusation, usually of something that we just watched him do. You know, 'experts commenting outside their area of expertise' on a comment about epidemiology by someone who is supposedly a mathematician, 'lazy thinking' by someone whose thinking isn't deep enough to realize that the first part of a logistic is characterized by exponential growth, and 'shutting down the debate' while making accusations intended to shut the debate down while making sure that lurkers misremember it.

And all this just so he can argue for letting the most deadly pandemic in a hundred years kill yet more of us. It's pathetic.
 
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Faceless Man

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Great news to hear that they've appointed a grown up, especially as it seems to have wound up many of the top comment posters. Given the scientific illiteracy of much of the scientific establishment it's no wonder the world is full of people who've failed Maths and believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1lyggPhWOM

Holy shit.

" believe that a natural phenomena can grow exponentially. "

How. Just how? Are you that dumb?

well you know there is always some natural limit that stops exponential growth therefore exponential growth never really happened, this idiot, probably
Yeah, what usually stops exponential growth is a lack of resources. In the case of a virus like SARS-CoV2, those resources are compatible hosts.

Damn, ninjad. But it's a point worth reiterating.
 
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balthazarr

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Covid is nothing compared to the plague.

So until we get a pandemic that wipes out 30-60% of the population, we should sit back and do nothing?

What the fuck is wrong with you and your ilk?

What a fucking ghoulish, monstrous position. The nearly 4.8 million dead (and counting) and their friends and loved ones send a hearty fuck you and yours.
 
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McRuff

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"a first"??? Have you ever been to school?!

Actually he probably has. I seem to remember back in my dim distant past, that is how we used to describe placings in the junior classes at elementary school. He might also been a solo child being home schooled, so finished first in every subject.
 
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zebm is that kid in algorithms class that says “actually everything is O(1) because the universe is finite”

(Although I don’t remember them ever moving on to “and mass death is cool”)

No, but I could have thought in my graph theory class that so what if travelling salesman is NP, just give me a small problem for my homework.
 
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zebm is that kid in algorithms class that says “actually everything is O(1) because the universe is finite”

(Although I don’t remember them ever moving on to “and mass death is cool”)

No, but I could have thought in my graph theory class that so what if travelling salesman is NP, just give me a small problem for my homework.

None of that matters whatsoever. More US citizens have died from this thing than every war we've fought in now. That's what matters. We want to stop the death.
 
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Bernardo Verda

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"a first"??? Have you ever been to school?!

Actually he probably has. I seem to remember back in my dim distant past, that is how we used to describe placings in the junior classes at elementary school. He might also been a solo child being home schooled, so finished first in every subject.

It's the British universities system for grading academic achievement in undergraduate programs
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/students/exams-an ... rgraduates

Whether it's actually relevant (assuming one believes him) is another matter.
 
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passivesmoking

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So, since the troll is doubling down on eating his foot, I suppose it's time to treat the troll like a troll and discuss how these arguments are supposed to work and what they imply.

Why bother? He's a troll! He's not here to argue in good faith, he's here to spread the covid gospel. Downvote, block, and (if they break the rules) report to the mods. Anything else is playing chess with pigeons (though if their username is humorously exploitable there's some fun to be had there too).
 
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Basil Forthrightly

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zebm is that kid in algorithms class that says “actually everything is O(1) because the universe is finite”

(Although I don’t remember them ever moving on to “and mass death is cool”)

No, but I could have thought in my graph theory class that so what if travelling salesman is NP, just give me a small problem for my homework.

Jesus fucking Christ.

Just because the solution becomes computable because n is small doesn’t mean the solution isn’t still O(NP).

Are you really that thick?
 
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Basil Forthrightly

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Probably some UK misspelling of whatever counts as advanced Math there.

No, it's you guys who misspell it :)

Is there only one mathematic in existence? Why isn't "math" a plural in America?

“Mathematics” is singular despite the final “s”; it’s an example of a mass noun, like “rice” or “glass”.

Proof:
“Mathematics is my best subject.”

If “mathematics” or its abbreviation were plural, the verb agreement would mandate “mathematics are”.

And I never understood how Britons confused footwear with automotive parts.
 
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Lt_Storm

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So, since the troll is doubling down on eating his foot, I suppose it's time to treat the troll like a troll and discuss how these arguments are supposed to work and what they imply. We will start with the point that he is arguing for but generally doesn't mention much: Covid isn't that bad. Given that the official death count for the pandemic is now over 650,000 Americans, this point is difficult to argue for. So he doesn't.

Instead he argues the next point: "logistic functions aren't really exponential" the unstated point, again, being "therefore Covid isn't that bad". To do this, he must ignore that, no matter how well you model disease propagation, the first phase of propagation, before the inflection point is reached, is well described by an exponential curve, and that this means that the exponential logic where 1 is about as close to 10 as 10 is to 100 still applies. This is a bait and switch tactic, the hope is that we can be convinced to discuss math rather than a pandemic that killed hundreds of thousands of Americans.

Next it's worth noting how he responded to being called out for sucking on his foot offensively. That, rather than taking his foot out of his mouth, he is on the offensive by effectively claiming that epidemiologists commenting on epidemiology are "experts willing to stray outside their area of expertise when asked about their opinion"*. I mean, the science communicators understand that their job is to play the parrot: find the expert talking about his field, and then repeat whatever that expert has to say.

This tactic is based on the idea that appearance beats substance. If he is always on the offensive and we are always explaining why he is a moron, then, long after the argument is over, and people have forgotten the details, they will still remember the dynamic and given that dynamic, it feels like he won. So, he tries to create a dynamic wherein his comments are short, quippy, and, most importantly, on the attack.

He has hardly made a post that doesn't include an accusation, usually of something that we just watched him do. You know, 'experts commenting outside their area of expertise' on a comment about epidemiology by someone who is supposedly a mathematician, 'lazy thinking' by someone whose thinking isn't deep enough to realize that the first part of a logistic is characterized by exponential growth, and 'shutting down the debate' while making accusations intended to shut the debate down while making sure that lurkers misremember it.

And all this just so he can argue for letting the most deadly pandemic in a hundred years kill yet more of us. It's pathetic.

I thought you trolls learnt to read in school. I do get tired of you and your ilk attempting to put words in my mouth. Logistic functions aren't exponential, though this is the first time I've said that. I did say that the SI model isn't applicable to Covid - ever consider pulling your finger out and reading up on the subject? e.g. Kermack-McKendrick (1927) published the standard SIR model which isn't exponential, so it is rather settled science.

Because I am stupid enough to reply to the math part, from Wikipedia:

Wikipedia":2sic0spy said:
The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential (geometric); then, as saturation begins, the growth slows to linear (arithmetic), and at maturity, growth stops.

So, the first phase of growth in a logistic model is effectively exponential. The same can be said about SIR models, they all grow approximately exponentially until they approach saturation, then they become linear and sublinear. Not that we need models to demonstrate this behavior, after all, we just lived through it. That someone needs to point out to you that all of these models and the data from Covid infections have an exponential growth phase before you reach whatever the basic limit that stops it* doesn't speak well for your expertise. If you are involved in epidemiology, you really should know that.

* This turns out to be human psychology, after all, if it stopped because enough people were removed, there would have been no second or third wave, let alone a fifth one.

As for the rest of your post, it isn't worth talking to someone who is stupid enough to pretend that the 'lockdown is killing a comparable number of people to the pandemic'. Your mathematics is bad, your epidemiology is bad, and your comparisons are bad. After all, every pandemic since the 1918 Flu has been small potatoes by comparison to this. Well more than half a million Americans have been killed by this disease, and they didn't have to. If we had taken it seriously, we could have cut that number in half. Worse that 660,000 number is almost certainly significant undercount. So, you will have to forgive me for not being willing to take someone seriously who is trying to underplay that tsunami of suck and suffering. Get your damn vaccine, wear a damn mask, and stop trying to put people in unnecessary danger.
 
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Basil Forthrightly

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zebm is that kid in algorithms class that says “actually everything is O(1) because the universe is finite”

(Although I don’t remember them ever moving on to “and mass death is cool”)

No, but I could have thought in my graph theory class that so what if travelling salesman is NP, just give me a small problem for my homework.

None of that matters whatsoever. More US citizens have died from this thing than every war we've fought in now. That's what matters. We want to stop the death.

Everyone dies,…

And Florida, with its anti-masking and vaccine denialism is the current leader in excess deaths, no other state comes close over the last 2 months.

DeSantis can’t hide the bodies (yet).
 
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Probably some UK misspelling of whatever counts as advanced Math there.

No, it's you guys who misspell it :)

Is there only one mathematic in existence? Why isn't "math" a plural in America?

“Mathematics” is singular despite the final “s”; it’s an example of a mass noun, like “rice” or “glass”.

Proof:
“Mathematics is my best subject.”

If “mathematics” or its abbreviation were plural, the verb agreement would mandate “mathematics are”.

And I never understood how Britons confused footwear with automotive parts.
The etymology is plural though. Language evolves with inconsistencies, and the study of mathematics is singular in the same way as a pair of scissors. It really doesn't matter though, since both math and maths are contractions and words in their own right.
 
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Basil Forthrightly

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Probably some UK misspelling of whatever counts as advanced Math there.

No, it's you guys who misspell it :)

Is there only one mathematic in existence? Why isn't "math" a plural in America?

“Mathematics” is singular despite the final “s”; it’s an example of a mass noun, like “rice” or “glass”.

Proof:
“Mathematics is my best subject.”

If “mathematics” or its abbreviation were plural, the verb agreement would mandate “mathematics are”.

And I never understood how Britons confused footwear with automotive parts.
The etymology is plural though. Language evolves with inconsistencies, and the study of mathematics is singular in the same way as a pair of scissors. It really doesn't matter though, since both math and maths are contractions and words in their own right.

Mass nouns are plurals that take singular verb agreement.

When you go to a butchers and see a case full of meat, there’s almost never just one thing in the case.

Even if meat is murder.
 
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Faceless Man

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Probably some UK misspelling of whatever counts as advanced Math there.

No, it's you guys who misspell it :)

Is there only one mathematic in existence? Why isn't "math" a plural in America?

“Mathematics” is singular despite the final “s”; it’s an example of a mass noun, like “rice” or “glass”.

Proof:
“Mathematics is my best subject.”

If “mathematics” or its abbreviation were plural, the verb agreement would mandate “mathematics are”.

And I never understood how Britons confused footwear with automotive parts.
I've never understood where you keep your spare tyres. Or where you get the elephants.

Besides, there are multiple Maths. Geometry, Calculus, Algebra, and the various combinations of the above to name just a few.
 
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Basil Forthrightly

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Probably some UK misspelling of whatever counts as advanced Math there.

No, it's you guys who misspell it :)

Is there only one mathematic in existence? Why isn't "math" a plural in America?

“Mathematics” is singular despite the final “s”; it’s an example of a mass noun, like “rice” or “glass”.

Proof:
“Mathematics is my best subject.”

If “mathematics” or its abbreviation were plural, the verb agreement would mandate “mathematics are”.

And I never understood how Britons confused footwear with automotive parts.
I've never understood where you keep your spare tyres. Or where you get the elephants.

Besides, there are multiple Maths. Geometry, Calculus, Algebra, and the various combinations of the above to name just a few.

So, maths are hard?
 
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Faceless Man

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Probably some UK misspelling of whatever counts as advanced Math there.

No, it's you guys who misspell it :)

Is there only one mathematic in existence? Why isn't "math" a plural in America?

“Mathematics” is singular despite the final “s”; it’s an example of a mass noun, like “rice” or “glass”.

Proof:
“Mathematics is my best subject.”

If “mathematics” or its abbreviation were plural, the verb agreement would mandate “mathematics are”.

And I never understood how Britons confused footwear with automotive parts.
I've never understood where you keep your spare tyres. Or where you get the elephants.

Besides, there are multiple Maths. Geometry, Calculus, Algebra, and the various combinations of the above to name just a few.

So, maths are hard?
According to a certain niche website I found on the dark web, I suppose so...
 
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passivesmoking

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Probably some UK misspelling of whatever counts as advanced Math there.

No, it's you guys who misspell it :)

Is there only one mathematic in existence? Why isn't "math" a plural in America?

“Mathematics” is singular despite the final “s”; it’s an example of a mass noun, like “rice” or “glass”.

Proof:
“Mathematics is my best subject.”

If “mathematics” or its abbreviation were plural, the verb agreement would mandate “mathematics are”.

And I never understood how Britons confused footwear with automotive parts.
I've never understood where you keep your spare tyres. Or where you get the elephants.

Besides, there are multiple Maths. Geometry, Calculus, Algebra, and the various combinations of the above to name just a few.

This is exactly what I was hoping for! Lets drown out the covidiot trolling with arguments about comparative spelling and grammar! Woo! Sulphur! Colour! Manoeuvre!
 
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