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Test like you fly

NASA provides some details about Artemis III, but hard decisions remain

“NASA also is defining the concept of operations for the mission.”

Eric Berger – | 18
A crescent Earth slips behind the limb of the Moon in this view recorded by the Artemis II crew Monday. Credit: NASA
A crescent Earth slips behind the limb of the Moon in this view recorded by the Artemis II crew Monday. Credit: NASA
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NASA announced Wednesday that it will fly the Artemis III mission in low-Earth orbit and that it continues to target 2027 for this stepping-stone flight that will help land humans on the Moon.

The space agency chose the orbit close to Earth—as opposed to a higher orbit—because it would preserve the final remaining Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage for launching the Artemis IV landing mission later this decade. Instead, NASA will use a “spacer” to simulate the mass and overall dimensions of an upper stage but without propulsive capabilities.

The additional information released this week follows a decision made by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman three months ago to shuffle the agency’s Artemis plans in order to accelerate a lunar landing.

Instead of landing on the Moon with Artemis III, the agency now plans to launch four astronauts inside the Orion spacecraft, on top of the Space Launch System rocket. In Earth orbit they will rendezvous with one, or both, of the vehicles under development to carry astronauts down to the lunar surface: SpaceX’s Starship and Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 2.

Saving an upper stage

This decision to reduce the risks of the eventual lunar landing mission with an interim test closer to home has largely been applauded by the space community. It greatly increases the chance of success with the eventual lunar landing mission.

“For the first time, NASA will coordinate a launch campaign involving multiple spacecraft integrating new capabilities into Artemis operations,” said Jeremy Parsons, Moon to Mars acting assistant deputy administrator, in a news release. “We’re integrating more partners and interrelated operations into this mission by design, which will help us learn how Orion, the crew, and ground teams all interact together with hardware and teams from both providers before we send astronauts to the Moon’s surface and build a Moon Base there.”

However NASA continues to put off some key details for this mission, which Isaacman has repeatedly said will launch in (late) 2027.

The centerpiece of this mission will test the ability of the Artemis III astronauts—who have not yet been named, but could be within the coming months—to fly Orion to one or both of the lunar landers and then dock with the lander.

NASA did something similar during the Apollo program, with the Apollo 9 mission in March 1969. During that mission, two Apollo 9 astronauts entered the Lunar Module and separated from the Apollo Command Module. They performed a number of tasks, including flying up to 9.9 miles below, and 74 miles behind, the Apollo spacecraft before returning and docking again.

How mature will the landers be?

It is unclear, however, how rigorous similar testing will be during Artemis III. The new NASA release states: “Informed by Blue Origin and SpaceX capabilities, NASA also is defining the concept of operations for the mission. While some decisions are yet to be determined, astronauts could potentially enter at least one lander test article.”

This suggests that Artemis III astronauts may not even enter Starship and/or Blue Moon, let alone fire thrusters or separate from Orion.

This sets up a major dilemma for Isaacman and the rest of NASA’s leadership. If they fly Artemis III in 2027, the stated goal, they almost certainly will be rendezvousing with one or two landers that are far short of full maturity. (The NASA release calls them “pathfinders.”) If NASA is contemplating not even having the crew enter the landers, it is possible that neither vehicle will have even basic life support.

This falls short of a well-established maxim in the space industry: test like you fly. The longer NASA waits to fly Artemis III, the better chance it will have to fly with a higher-fidelity vehicle—that is, one closer to landing on the Moon than being a basic prototype. It also increases the likelihood that an Artemis spacesuit, developed by Axiom Space, will be available for testing.

But the longer NASA waits to fly Artemis III, it will likely lose concordance in the schedule for the lunar landing with Artemis IV. And this matters, because when Isaacman says the competition between NASA and China to return humans to the Moon will be decided by “months” rather than “years,” he is not wrong.

Photo of Eric Berger
Eric Berger Senior Space Editor
Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA policy, and author of two books: Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX; and Reentry, on the development of the Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston.
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