Volkswagen plans to offer subscriptions for autonomous driving, extra EV range

graylshaped

Ars Legatus Legionis
67,723
Subscriptor++
Recurring subscriptions, the bane of existence. Sadly, every company really only cares about seeing consumers as a continual revenue stream. It's great for companies and their share holders, but lousy for consumers.
Companies used to be content with selling you a car when you needed a new one. That was a continual revenue stream, just spread over a much longer timespan. This subscription-everything-model is born from the stock market's baked-in preference for profits this quarter before anything else at all.

To be fair, they also assumed a certain amount of revenue from dealer maintenance.

For that matter, when we buy a TV, we don't get the content it shows for free, or free data when we buy a phone, or multi-player when we buy a console game... Having said that, trying to rent functionality on a car costing tens of thousands of dollars is a hard no for me. It's worth noting VW is not the fist Geroman manufacturer to float this. I recall BMW also running this one up the flagpole, which is completely weird, because a big appeal of BMW is "buy the car and pay nothing for several years outside of gas and tires." Hey, it worked for me. I've driven either a Mini or a BMW for fourteen years now.
 
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Everyone is hating on this, but for actual L4/L5 Autonomy, it's a great deal. If I think I've had one too many after dinner, I can just pay to have the car drive me home, and not worry about whether the car is getting towed the next morning, whether I have a $100 bill for the garage, and I don't need to pay $40 for a taxi. If I use this service twice a month, it comes to about $1400 over the life of the vehicle, well less than the $7,000 Tesla will charge as a one-time payment for self driving.

The real problem is that VW doesn't actually have a L4/L5 self driving system.


Assuming the car isn't relying on a server farm somewhere to do the processing (which it shouldn't since internet connectivity can't be guaranteed on the roads) why should you have to arbitrarily pay your own computer in your own car to drive you somewhere using sensors that you own?

Because liability to third parties shifts from you as a negligent driver to VW as maker of a defective product whenever you turn on self driving. The less you use it, the less liability they are carrying, so a pay-for-use model makes sense.

Also, plenty of software is licensed on a use-based model. I'm not in love with it as a consumer, but it's not like this is an unusual thing.

If VW can't make a reliable self driving car then why should I be the one paying to use their defective software and in a car who's maintenance I'm fully on the hook for? If the software is so bad that VW needs to make me pay $8.50 an hour just to disincentivize me from using it then it probably shouldn't be on the road in the first place. Self driving cars need to be objectively better at driving than a human basically always or else there's no point, if I still have to watch the road and correct the self driving software than for $8.50 an hour I had might as well just do it myself.

If $8.50 / hour is not worth it to you, than don't use it. All I am saying is that there will be many scenarios where it is a positive, and better for consumers to have this option than having to settle for a four to five figure flat-fee option.

Also, "objectively better" doesn't mean perfect. Self driving cars will still crash. But there will be more incentive for the third party victim to sue, since VW has much deeper pockets than you or I with basic liability insurance. So I suspect insurance costs will still continue to make up about 12-15% of the costs of self driving. https://newsroom.aaa.com/2015/04/annual ... a-archive/

Current IRS mileage rates are around $0.54/mi, so one hour of self driving is a marginal cost of about $3.50. So now we're looking at about $5/hour after insurance costs. Again, you're free not to buy it, and I probably wouldn't use it most trips, but I would be glad to have the option, and I prefer it over the $10k Tesla charges.
 
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jezra

Ars Tribunus Militum
2,100
I would pay zero dollars to use a "feature" on a computer that I have already purchased. I also have no desire to be charged a fee to roll down/up a window.

So you buy computers prepackaged with every software you will ever use?

Interesting - and quite unusual.
The computers that I purchase are wifi and bluetooth capable, and I expect to be able to use wifi and bluetooth without being charged on a 'per use' basis.
 
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philophilicity

Seniorius Lurkius
2
Subscriptor
The only way I can see this panning out in a remotely consumer-positive way is if autonomous driving becomes so ubiquitous that OEMs start undercutting each other to differentiate until it's free, similar to how annual fees are a thing of the past for most credit cards, or, more recently, $0 trading fees at most major brokerages.

Unfortunately, given how few OEMs there are, it's more likely to go the way of the telecoms where everyone's paying $100/month for crappy Internet/cell service.
 
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If $8.50/hour is the cost of the vehicle (as an automated taxi service), then that's competitive with what I'm paying right now to own a car for my daily commute.

If I have to buy the car first, and then plunk down $8.50/hour to use it, fuck that. It's an artificially induced subscription model.

I'd be willing to argue most subscriptions are artificially induced. If not all of them.
 
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Something else I haven't seen mentioned (might have missed it) is what happens in the future when there aren't that many of that model still on the road? It won't make economic sense to keep running the servers that control these pay per use services. The servers WILL be shut down and you will no longer have access to these services at any price. Some might say at that point VW will just unlock all of the services for the remaining users but history shows that is not what happens. You are just out of luck.
 
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drjzzz

Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
196
The choice need not be exclusive or permanent. Pay hourly unless you anticipate >1,000 hours of self-driving, then switch over, credited the trial costs (or not).

VW debuted the van in 2017 but it isn't expected for another model year? They were desperate to replace the "VW gassing people" headlines because that is no real timeline. I owned many VWs but no more, not after they cheated repeatedly and blatantly.
 
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azazel1024

Ars Legatus Legionis
15,020
Subscriptor
Ignoring how batshit insane VW's idea is, one thing was interesting about this article to me:

"Drivers typically value their time at 20–40 percent of their wages"

That really surprised me, I generally value my time somewhere closer to 100% of my wage. If I can pay $50 extra to get on a flight an hour earlier, I definitely will be. I'm not going to drive 8 hours just to save $100 over the cost of a flight, that's for sure.

But then there are people who skip the toll roads here and get stuck in traffic jams as a result, so I guess I'm at the other end of the scale to some.

I’d say that’s somewhat fair. I probably value my free time around 40% of my hourly wage. Not necessarily “does it buy me free time”, but also spending my free time. Hmmm, that video game will give me 20hrs of enjoyable play for $60. Yeah, okay, that’s like 1/20th my hourly, I won’t bat an eye. Gee that movie in a theater with popcorn is like $30. Hmm, I don’t know man. And I’ve gotta drive to get there. Maybe that’s not worth spending my money on.

Things that save me time, yeah I’d guess it’s in the 40-50% range. But that said, is there other emotional baggage attached? Renting me features in something I own that doesn’t have a true externality isn’t really going to cut the mustard. If my oven offered me $2 to convection cook my turkey 20 minutes faster I’d throw it out the F-ing window. I’d spend more on a product if it had a better feature set, or promised that feature set later. I’d even consider buying an improved feature set later, like self driving, if it became available after the fact or COULD be an option to unlock later. No way I’d rent it. Not even a tiny chance I’d consider it.

One question I’d need to ask to, does VW want to consider the liability of this. What if someone chooses not to use it, but then has a crisis and the only way to use the feature is by signing up, etc.

“Car, take me to the nearest hospital, I just cut my finger off.”
“Sure. I am going to need you to sign up for a my VW account and enter payment information. You’ll be charged $8.50 per hour or fraction there of for this self driving feature. Would you like to learn more?”
 
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As long as FSD is not around yet and may or may not become 100% functional while you still own the car, a subscription model is the only way to pay for FSD which makes sense.

You pay $0 as long as it is crap, maybe pay for an hour here and there to see if it has improved and if it actually becomes fully functional during the last half year of your car ownership, you can pay for a couple hours to actually use it - but you do not have to pay a couple thousand dollars up front for something which may or may not work.
 
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Can I pay a subscription to not cheat emissions tests? That’s a service I would pay for.

Also, there are no guarantees the price will stay at $8.50 a month. It may go down over time - it may also go up. You buy a car based on the economics of $8.50 an hour, only to discover two year later it’s $35.00 an hour because of market conditions.

Edit: now here’s an idea: they could start charging surge pricing too!
 
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I would pay zero dollars to use a "feature" on a computer that I have already purchased. I also have no desire to be charged a fee to roll down/up a window.

So you buy computers prepackaged with every software you will ever use?

Interesting - and quite unusual.
The computers that I purchase are wifi and bluetooth capable, and I expect to be able to use wifi and bluetooth without being charged on a 'per use' basis.

They're also "tax program capable" - but rarely is that included, and certainly not yearly updates.

Nice attempt at a goalpost shift, BTW. I suppose it is an admission that you do buy software separately.
 
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balthazarr

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
6,838
Subscriptor++
Once fully autonomous vehicles are truly viable, why would I own a car? For that matter, why would the vast majority of the masses?

When you can pull out your phone - order an autonomous vehicle that will take you wherever for what should be a very modest fee (less than it currently costs, because there's no expensive meatbag behind the wheel) and no need to make small talk, etc.

No outlay for the car, no ongoing maintenance, insurance, registration, etc. It should be much cheaper to not own a car - and if there are enough autonomous taxis around, almost as convenient as ownership.

In the above scenario, VW's business model just fell apart.
 
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Buy the car and it still isn't yours. Just like a smartphone or a John Deere tractor. Not only will I never pay for the extra service, I will never buy the car in the first place if they are going in this direction. There might be a argument for the games, but paying extra for software that increases safety? Let the lawsuits begin!!!
Wasn't it not that long ago that Boeing got caught out charging airlines extra for safety features and, quite rightly, got roasted when their stingy-ness was implicated in plane crashes?
 
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Everyone is hating on this, but for actual L4/L5 Autonomy, it's a great deal. If I think I've had one too many after dinner, I can just pay to have the car drive me home, and not worry about whether the car is getting towed the next morning, whether I have a $100 bill for the garage, and I don't need to pay $40 for a taxi. If I use this service twice a month, it comes to about $1400 over the life of the vehicle, well less than the $7,000 Tesla will charge as a one-time payment for self driving.

The real problem is that VW doesn't actually have a L4/L5 self driving system.
Paying to use a self-driving feature is not the same as paying for a chauffeur to drive your car for you. One (the human) is providing you with a service; the other (self-driving) is a feature that is already there in a car you ostensibly own. The feature is no more or less capable of doing what it is supposed to do depending on whether or not you've paid extra for it.

If you really do own your car, that should include everything in it. This is a naked attempt to destroy the concept of personal ownership. Sort-of reminds me of the corporate dystopian hellscape depicted in the TV show Continuum.
 
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It's sad that robots are paid more than people.



According to legend, John Henry's prowess as a steel-driver was measured in a race against a steam-powered rock drilling machine, a race that he won only to die in victory with hammer in hand as his heart gave out from stress. Various locations, including Big Bend Tunnel in West Virginia,[3] Lewis Tunnel in Virginia, and Coosa Mountain Tunnel in Alabama, have been suggested as the site of the contest.

The contest involved John Henry as the hammer man working in partnership with a shaker, who would hold a chisel-like drill against mountain rock, while the hammer man struck a powerful blow with a sledgehammer. Then the shaker would begin rocking and rolling: wiggling and rotating the drill to optimize its bite. The steam drill machine could drill but it could not shake the chippings away, so its bit could not drill further and frequently broke down.

John Henry (folklore)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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Everyone is hating on this, but for actual L4/L5 Autonomy, it's a great deal. If I think I've had one too many after dinner, I can just pay to have the car drive me home, and not worry about whether the car is getting towed the next morning, whether I have a $100 bill for the garage, and I don't need to pay $40 for a taxi. If I use this service twice a month, it comes to about $1400 over the life of the vehicle, well less than the $7,000 Tesla will charge as a one-time payment for self driving.

The real problem is that VW doesn't actually have a L4/L5 self driving system.
Paying to use a self-driving feature is not the same as paying for a chauffeur to drive your car for you. One (the human) is providing you with a service; the other (self-driving) is a feature that is already there in a car you ostensibly own. The feature is no more or less capable of doing what it is supposed to do depending on whether or not you've paid extra for it.

If you really do own your car, that should include everything in it. This is a naked attempt to destroy the concept of personal ownership. Sort-of reminds me of the corporate dystopian hellscape depicted in the TV show Continuum.

By that logic, if it's not fully open source and I can't run homebrew on it, it's not mine. That's a perfectly fine line to draw, but it's going to exclude many modern cars.
 
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mattbg

Ars Praetorian
413
Subscriptor
The trouble with that model though is cars stay on the road for a lot longer than the average manufacturer is willing to provide after-sale support for. I see no shortage of cars on the road, including my own, that are 20+ years old. I have a hard time believing that VW is still going to offer support for cars that old and won't just make them paperweights so people have to buy new ones.

Wouldn’t this abandonment occur much sooner if there was no recurring revenue to offset the costs of maintaining the FSD support infrastructure?
 
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JohnDeL

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,596
Subscriptor
The trouble with that model though is cars stay on the road for a lot longer than the average manufacturer is willing to provide after-sale support for. I see no shortage of cars on the road, including my own, that are 20+ years old. I have a hard time believing that VW is still going to offer support for cars that old and won't just make them paperweights so people have to buy new ones.

Wouldn’t this abandonment occur much sooner if there was no recurring revenue to offset the costs of maintaining the FSD support infrastructure?

Unless there is a law requiring support. Or one forbidding manufacturers from voiding warranties when non-OEM software is installed. Or both.

In any case, this is clearly an area where the law hasn't caught up with the technology.
 
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misterjim

Ars Praefectus
5,749
Subscriptor++
Dude, I would not pay $8.50 per hour for instantanious teleportation!

I hope you meant per trip

....as being stuck in a matter transporter buffer for 1 hour does not sound very appealing

:D

Instantenious being so short it would cost $0.0 was the joke. I don't want to rent features for something I already own is my point.

You don't own the self-driving service. If you buy a limo you don't complain about paying for a driver, do you?

Is this a joke? If not, your opinion is one that corporations would absolutely LOVE to clone.
 
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A lot of people seemed peeved by this hourly rate for the autonomous driving.

However, it would save people money upfront, from not having to pay for the feature when they buy the car. Someone like me who lives and drives mostly in the city, I wouldn't use the feature that much. But the once a month or so that I have to head on the highway to get out of town, I would.

Eventually after several years of owning the car, I would be paying more than buying the feature in the beginning (this is the whole idea behind the subscription model) . But it would save me a few thousand dollars upfront when I purchased the vehicle. And, I would have the choice when to enable it or not.
 
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JohnDeL

Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
8,596
Subscriptor
A lot of people seemed peeved by this hourly rate for the autonomous driving.

However, it would save people money upfront, from not having to pay for the feature when they buy the car.

That's the problem - it is a short-term "benefit" but a long-term loss.

Eventually after several years of owning the car, I would be paying more than buying the feature in the beginning (this is the whole idea behind the subscription model) . But it would save me a few thousand dollars upfront when I purchased the vehicle. And, I would have the choice when to enable it or not.

You would have the option of enabling it or not even if it were a flat fee.
 
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Seems like the hacking communities jailbreaking phones, consoles and John Deere tractors will have another set of things to keep them busy. Seems like the dystopian future will include visits to not just the mechanic but the local hacker to jailbreak your car's self driving and software locked battery range.

Who looks at the videogame industry and the takeaway they get is "Gee look at all the hate they get for all the nickel and diming they do to their customers... We need to get us some of that!"
 
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A lot of people seemed peeved by this hourly rate for the autonomous driving.

However, it would save people money upfront, from not having to pay for the feature when they buy the car. Someone like me who lives and drives mostly in the city, I wouldn't use the feature that much. But the once a month or so that I have to head on the highway to get out of town, I would.

Eventually after several years of owning the car, I would be paying more than buying the feature in the beginning (this is the whole idea behind the subscription model) . But it would save me a few thousand dollars upfront when I purchased the vehicle. And, I would have the choice when to enable it or not.

LOL. You really want to live your life filled with needless subscriptions that should just have an upfront cost (or no cost) that saves you tons of money in the medium to long run? If this payment scheme is normalized then it's going to take forever to get rid of it, instead of just becoming a standard feature like anything else that's also in the software -- because competition is going to make sure this will become a standard feature if they can't force people to pay hourly rates. And if they can force people to pay hourly rates, look forward to more things like renting the use of your heated seats and other things. Pretty soon you're paying an extra $50-$100/month for your car.

Make no mistake. This isn't about saving anyone money. This is about milking customers for more money than they'd be able to otherwise get. That's what all these subscription services for stuff like this is about. Unfortunately, human psychology is kind of crappy so often enough they work well enough for the companies, but that's not because they're a good deal or good idea.
 
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You don't own the self-driving service. If you buy a limo you don't complain about paying for a driver, do you?

Is this a joke? If not, your opinion is one that corporations would absolutely LOVE to clone.

My opinion is one that all software developers would agree with. Just because you bought the hardware doesn't mean you own any software that works with it.
 
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A lot of people seemed peeved by this hourly rate for the autonomous driving.

However, it would save people money upfront, from not having to pay for the feature when they buy the car. Someone like me who lives and drives mostly in the city, I wouldn't use the feature that much. But the once a month or so that I have to head on the highway to get out of town, I would.

Eventually after several years of owning the car, I would be paying more than buying the feature in the beginning (this is the whole idea behind the subscription model) . But it would save me a few thousand dollars upfront when I purchased the vehicle. And, I would have the choice when to enable it or not.

LOL. You really want to live your life filled with needless subscriptions that should just have an upfront cost (or no cost) that saves you tons of money in the medium to long run? If this payment scheme is normalized then it's going to take forever to get rid of it, instead of just becoming a standard feature like anything else that's also in the software -- because competition is going to make sure this will become a standard feature if they can't force people to pay hourly rates. And if they can force people to pay hourly rates, look forward to more things like renting the use of your heated seats and other things. Pretty soon you're paying an extra $50-$100/month for your car.

Make no mistake. This isn't about saving anyone money. This is about milking customers for more money than they'd be able to otherwise get. That's what all these subscription services for stuff like this is about. Unfortunately, human psychology is kind of crappy so often enough they work well enough for the companies, but that's not because they're a good deal or good idea.

You already live your life mostly on a pay-per-use basis. You don't buy the electricity company, the farm sourcing your supermarket or the restaurant and all its staff. You don't buy the cab company to get free rides.

Self driving is a capital intensive endeavour. Some people have been working to solve this problem for a decade. When this puzzle gets solved, those that invested in it for a decade or more will expect some returns on their investment.
 
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A lot of people seemed peeved by this hourly rate for the autonomous driving.

However, it would save people money upfront, from not having to pay for the feature when they buy the car. Someone like me who lives and drives mostly in the city, I wouldn't use the feature that much. But the once a month or so that I have to head on the highway to get out of town, I would.

Eventually after several years of owning the car, I would be paying more than buying the feature in the beginning (this is the whole idea behind the subscription model) . But it would save me a few thousand dollars upfront when I purchased the vehicle. And, I would have the choice when to enable it or not.

LOL. You really want to live your life filled with needless subscriptions that should just have an upfront cost (or no cost) that saves you tons of money in the medium to long run? If this payment scheme is normalized then it's going to take forever to get rid of it, instead of just becoming a standard feature like anything else that's also in the software -- because competition is going to make sure this will become a standard feature if they can't force people to pay hourly rates. And if they can force people to pay hourly rates, look forward to more things like renting the use of your heated seats and other things. Pretty soon you're paying an extra $50-$100/month for your car.

Make no mistake. This isn't about saving anyone money. This is about milking customers for more money than they'd be able to otherwise get. That's what all these subscription services for stuff like this is about. Unfortunately, human psychology is kind of crappy so often enough they work well enough for the companies, but that's not because they're a good deal or good idea.

You already live your life mostly on a pay-per-use basis. You don't buy the electricity company, the farm sourcing your supermarket or the restaurant and all its staff. You don't buy the cab company to get free rides.

Self driving is a capital intensive endeavour. Some people have been working to solve this problem for a decade. When this puzzle gets solved, those that invested in it for a decade or more will expect some returns on their investment.

False comparisons and you know it. Anyone here can tell the difference between these things, so don't act dumb. And car design is a capital-intensive endeavor as well, but I don't see you thinking it's ok to buy a car and then on top of it pay an hourly fee to the car company if you want to actually drive it.

So cut the bullshit.
 
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