US government to take 25% cut of AMD, NVIDIA AI sales to China
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The problem each and every time with anything associated with Trump is HUBRIS. They are incapable of thinking that far ahead.
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After which, the cash will be picked up, and flown to Qatar via military transport, directly into the Trump family account, then converted to Trumpcoin.
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I think this may be looked back on as the official bubble pop for AI because of how all those incestuous charts MUST also end somewhere along the line selling hardware to China.
I mean there's my hope and educated guess which are two entirely separate realms.
I mean there's my hope and educated guess which are two entirely separate realms.
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I'm not really sure which country you are talking about, because you are being intentionally opaque, I believe. That said, I would argue that China, with the largest manufacturing base in the world (by a wide margin), a country that has lifted about 100 million people out of poverty in the past decade, probably doesn't have nearly as many issues with "efficiency" as one might think.
I would also point out that claims about how "efficient" about the US economy is are generally false on their face. We have entire industries dedicated solely to increasing inefficiency via rent-seeking - see the health insurance industry in the US.
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ASML can't build the machines without US chips. I hope the EU has enough leverage here but I suspect they actually do not when push comes to shove. They would rather have Denmark give up Greenland than risk the consequences. They won't even fully support Ukraine and that's a conflict in their backyard.
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Only a fascist would say that Russia deserves to win a war they started by invading another sovereign nation
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Given the general competence of the current administration when it comes to anything that doesn't put money into Trump's pocket, I'm willing to bet a modest amount that there's some way Nvidia can indirectly ship chips to China from Taiwan without going through the US. There's always a loophole. It's a question of how big and easy to exploit the loophole is.
Against that, if Trump sees Nvidia denying him his cut, the law doesn't matter; he'll leverage the DoJ to enforce the flow of money to him through any means possible.
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Here's the part you missed. China has banned the import of h200 chips in favour of using homegrown solutions.
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Shhhh.... remember, they were told there would be no fact checking.
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How much is it worth to you, to avoid: a major regional conflict between the world’s two strongest conventionally-armed major powers???
That’s also a conflict with PLENTY of escalatory potential, between two of the top-three nuclear powers . . .
Edit to add: My comment is about avoiding doing things that would lead a country to believe that they could start—and—win a large conflict with another major power. Just having, advanced AI chips, alone, is maybe not enough to make that happen. But it would be good to avoid the cumulative effect of decisions like that—and it seems 100% avoidable in this case!
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Even the mob would be ashamed to be as open about the corruption as the Trump Administration is.
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Ah yes. Because clearly the danger of exporting these chips to China disappears if the US gets a cut. It's such a simple thing to logically question and yet almost no one does.
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5G, old news
GNSS, check
Mono-crystal turbine blades, check
EMALS, check
Stealth fighters, check
Space station, check
Independent operating systems, check
EUV ... stay tuned
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Well, here's my thing: if I find myself agreeing wholeheartedly with Lindsay Graham, I take a step back and wonder where I went wrong. You, sir, agree wholeheartedly with Lady G. It's a slippery slope!
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I prefer no WWIII and him being wrong all day long, call me crazy.
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Let me remind you that the majority of AIC manufacturers are in China. So, Nvidia wants to sell to a Chinese customer? The customer pays, the AIC pack up the cards and put the box on a truck, the box mysteriously falls out of the truck into the customer's parking lot, transaction complete. Tariff? What's that?
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It's not just that there isn't anything stopping them from selling them directly (instead of trans-shipping via the other side of the world), it's that it will be substantially cheaper to do so.
Don't have to pay to ship to America.
Don't have to pay to process and store in America.
Don't have to pay Trump tax.
Don't have to pay to ship back to Asia again.
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It doesn't really matter if this is framed as a tariff or a revenue sharing agreement or whatever. It's just part of the overall trade war that Trump started with most of the world. Nobody wins in a trade war unless you're already at so much of a disadvantage that just not trading at all is no big loss. Raising trade barriers just prompts the other side to retaliate by raising prices as well so everyone loses.
Lower trade barriers benefit everyone as long as they're somewhat reciprocal. They don't necessarily have to be equal. Some countries might want to protect their agriculture exports. Others might be more concerned with cars or computer chips. Overall you want roughly similar trade barriers on both sides, preferably near zero. From a consumer standpoint a trade war is just a straight up price or tax increase depending on how you look at it.
From Nvidia's standpoint it's still a no brainer. 75% of 50 billion in sales to China is still better than 100% of 0 sales to China. So they'll just hike prices by 25% and call it the cost of doing business. I have no idea how much AMD sells to China but same deal for them.
There's also the effect on competition that Jensen has mentioned several times. There's a lot of AI research going on in China. If they can't buy US made chips to do that research on then they'll use homegrown chips instead, potentially propping up Chinese chip manufacturing to the point where they're far more competitive than they would otherwise have been. From a consumer standpoint that's good. From a national security standpoint that's the exact opposite of the goal.
Lower trade barriers benefit everyone as long as they're somewhat reciprocal. They don't necessarily have to be equal. Some countries might want to protect their agriculture exports. Others might be more concerned with cars or computer chips. Overall you want roughly similar trade barriers on both sides, preferably near zero. From a consumer standpoint a trade war is just a straight up price or tax increase depending on how you look at it.
From Nvidia's standpoint it's still a no brainer. 75% of 50 billion in sales to China is still better than 100% of 0 sales to China. So they'll just hike prices by 25% and call it the cost of doing business. I have no idea how much AMD sells to China but same deal for them.
There's also the effect on competition that Jensen has mentioned several times. There's a lot of AI research going on in China. If they can't buy US made chips to do that research on then they'll use homegrown chips instead, potentially propping up Chinese chip manufacturing to the point where they're far more competitive than they would otherwise have been. From a consumer standpoint that's good. From a national security standpoint that's the exact opposite of the goal.
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Because China is completely driven and have vast resources. Americans and Europeans are fools for thinking any yech barrier will hold up. China has more than enough excellent scientists and engineers to pull ahead of the west in many fields. Chip production and jet engines have been a few of the last advantages, but their nation funds long term plans to takeover entire industries. We have tech bros, AI, quarterly statement financial engineering and no nothing republicans serving their oligarch masters. It's not a fair fight
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Presumably this money will also go into the National Crime Family's Qatar-based account, just like the Venezuelan oil proceeds? (yes, he did)
The people who shrieked every time a democrat wore a designer purse, claimed any industrial policy was favoritism, seem awfully quiet these days.
The people who shrieked every time a democrat wore a designer purse, claimed any industrial policy was favoritism, seem awfully quiet these days.
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Why does that even matter to the EU? ASML is not central to the EU economy, they’ll get along fine if it has to stop production for a while. The entire US stock market, meanwhile, will collapse on a scale not seen since 1929 if the chip manufacturers, almost all of whom are US companies, can’t make chips any more.
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It’s even stronger than that IMO. I forget where I read this, but it’s so obvious yet it gets missed in all the politics. The point of trade is the imports. Exports are something you’re forced to do because those pesky foreign countries actually want something in return. If you’re importing from somewhere that puts export barriers against you, effectively you continue importing from them while only sending them pieces of paper that they’re refusing to cash. That’s a great deal for you.
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'proclamation'?
And where is he getting the power to arbitrarily tax individual companies, anyway?
I'm so confused...
And where is he getting the power to arbitrarily tax individual companies, anyway?
I'm so confused...
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ASML is relevant for future chips but not really important to keep manufacturing current ones. Once you get high NA EUV machines you are set for the next few years. Sure, keeping ASML in good standing helps with using these machines, but it isn't really crucial.
And nobody cares what happens after 3 years. Companies (and their shareholders) barely care about next quarter while Trump can't be reelected.
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Well, the Trumpistas are always one step ahead and are already engaged in 5D chess.
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The word "tariffs" was mentioned multiple times, despite not applying in this case at all, and despite this being a Financial Times piece.
Tariffs only apply to imports, and they're set and collected by the importing country.
So if China set that 25% rate on AMD/NVIDIA imports those would have been tariffs, going to Chinese coffers.
But this is the reverse. This is an arbitrary, and almost certainly illegal, export tax. Which Chinese importers might pay for if AMD and NVIDIA specifically raise the price of graphics cards they export to China by 25%.
Tariffs only apply to imports, and they're set and collected by the importing country.
So if China set that 25% rate on AMD/NVIDIA imports those would have been tariffs, going to Chinese coffers.
But this is the reverse. This is an arbitrary, and almost certainly illegal, export tax. Which Chinese importers might pay for if AMD and NVIDIA specifically raise the price of graphics cards they export to China by 25%.
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Set up by a dummy corporation, which is a subsidiary of another dummy corporation that was bought out by yet another dummy corporation, who's entire BOD just happens to consist of the entire Mango Mussolini family members, including his criminal-son-in-law. It's all just a large coincidence, nothing to see here. /S
Felon45 received a $10M
found nothing and closed the case. Of course, Barr could never ever find anything wrong. It's criminals all the way down.
So now we know that there are even people overseas who are as stupid as Felon45, and even then too inept to cover their tracks very well. But sycophants in the US will gladly help out.
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-egyptian-bribe/
https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/did-trump-accept-bribe-from-egypt-d75bcb
https://boards.straightdope.com/t/did-trump-get-a-10-million-bribe-from-egypt/1005157
etc.
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Because 25% of sales is money, national security gets in the way of grifting.
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The way I read it is that they are paying the 25% on the way in to the US for chips that will be sold to China.
That raises the price they charge when exporting the chips to China.
So while it is functionally an export tax, it is technically a tariff.
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The American Revolution would've failed without heavy support from France, Spain, and the Netherlands, in the form of supplies and troops, interdiction of the British navy, and the opening of additional war fronts. I guess we just didn't "deserve" to exist.
Re: Ukraine, they're continuing to make Russia bleed for every inch of ground while improving their homegrown deep-strike capabilities. Russia's 3-day invasion is now longer than the Soviet-German campaign in WWII. They're not going to overrun Ukraine by force anytime soon.
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This made explicit in the "Donroe Doctrine" National Security Strategy document: It says the world is to be divvied up among the 'Great Powers' who will operate in their 'spheres of interest'.
Like all things coming out of the Don Snoreleone Administration it's a throwback to the 19th century Gilded Age (Which this fucking Administration takes literally) which lead directly to WWI. But this time, with nuclear weapons.
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US Constitution, Article I, Section 9, Clause 5: “No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State.”
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