Ukraine is game to you?

[Vlip]

Given that Ukraine would be fighting a defensive war on it's home turf, and Russia wouldn't really be able to throw it's entire military into the problem, the imbalance doesn't seem all that bad. Isn't this the exact kind of asymmetric stuff that you guys (the Swiss) train for?

That's what foreigners think the Swiss army trains for. In reality we only maintain critical know-how so that we can ramp up a real army relatively fast (a few years) if the need arises.

As for Ukraine, if it was only the number imbalance it'd be something but their hardware is in terrible shape. For example, their best main battle tank is a souped up T64, they probably wouldn't even see Russian T-90s before being destroyed.
It's a war Ukraine cannot win but yes, if the Ukrainian army decides to put up a real fight it might not be a war Russia can win without getting punched in the face a few time.

 

[bakshi]

skylarjones[/url]":27exull4]That's just it. Has Ukraine ever built/bought weapons and trained with them to fight Russia asymmetrically?

It would have been utterly negligent for the Ukrainian military to have failed to prepare for this scenario over the past 22 years of independence.

Sadly, I can't rule out the possibility that they didn't.

 

[random_slacker]

bakshi[/url]":1uvn101c]

Roma Curia[/url]":1uvn101c]You have it all wrong, the Abkhazia Gap was key to virtually all of NATO's plans to invade and destroy Russia. Now that it's secured American plans have been foiled, the motherland's defence has been secured. That by ensuring their safety Russia has secured a valuable trading partner is just a bonus.

Can't tell if this is meant to be a joke.

NATO's supposed invasion of Russia would be through a mountainous region 1000 miles from Moscow, with little or no forward staging options? As opposed to, say, the long, level border with two NATO states, which is about 350 miles from Moscow?

No, Abkhasia was supposed to be the warehouse and distribution point for cheap Afghani heroin (as everyone knows, the US invaded Afghanistan to take control of heroin production and to direct massive amounts of heroin into Russia in order to exterminate the Russian people).

 

[Deleted member 284552]

skylarjones[/url]":20g83up1]That's just it. Has Ukraine ever built/bought weapons and trained with them to fight Russia asymmetrically?

The Ukranians would focus on defending the cities foremost where Russian air power would not be as effective without ridiculous secondary casualties. Kicking people out of a city that is armed with relatively modern weapons, in what would be fairly brutal street fighting is a pain in the ass. Using insurgents to strike at convoys and resupply operations. Basically make this as expensive to the Russians as possible, and hope that the rivers of blood would get the West to at least intervene with more than just sanctions.

Trying to meet the Russians in the open field would be suicidal. Maybe they can organize traditional defensive lines along the Dniester Dnieper river where Russian supplies would extended further.

 

[skylarjones]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/ ... GE20140303

Surprise, surprise, surprise. China agrees with how Russia is handling Ukraine. Authoritarian governments gotta stick together I guess.

 

[Vlip]

That's just it. Has Ukraine ever built/bought weapons and trained with them to fight Russia asymmetrically?

Training? Bleh. All you need is basic infantry skill (a few weeks training) and tell your sergeants to read Major Von Dach's book and you are good to go. As for weapons, whatever the Ukrainian infantry has will be good enough and if it isn't I'm sure Santa will find a way to provide those.

 

[eXceLon]

skylarjones[/url]":ax7xkbac]http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-china-idUSBREA220GE20140303

Surprise, surprise, surprise. China agrees with how Russia is handling Ukraine. Authoritarian governments gotta stick together I guess.

I've basically figured that China and Russia were going to be the "bad guys" of the 21st century. Looks like they don't plan to disappoint.

 

[Rauha]

Around 0:45 of this new Telegraph video report I realised that some things never change. The Classics of Russian expansion still keep on trucking.

"a border post is being established by the Kuban Cosassacks"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yglL3JAFnLE&hd=1#t=42

 

[Chiaroscuro]

bakshi[/url]":2yd74oeo]

skylarjones[/url]":2yd74oeo]That's just it. Has Ukraine ever built/bought weapons and trained with them to fight Russia asymmetrically?

It would have been utterly negligent for the Ukrainian military to have failed to prepare for this scenario over the past 22 years of independence.

Sadly, I can't rule out the possibility that they didn't.

I can give a good reason why not: They're living with a hungry beast next door, eager for ANY excuse to tear up the treaty and reconquer. Big training exercises to resist that would be exactly the bullshit Russia would use to justify invading - "We had to invade, for their own good. Otherwise, they'd just get hurt while trying to stop us from saving them from themselves."

And Putin found an excuse anyway.

 

[Tijger]

skylarjones[/url]":2mpu584f]http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-china-idUSBREA220GE20140303

Surprise, surprise, surprise. China agrees with how Russia is handling Ukraine. Authoritarian governments gotta stick together I guess.

China probably would use the same strategy to take parts of Russia so its not surprising at all but it should be a huge red flag to the Russians.

 

[random_slacker]

Tijger[/url]":38lb5jyv]

skylarjones[/url]":38lb5jyv]http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-china-idUSBREA220GE20140303

Surprise, surprise, surprise. China agrees with how Russia is handling Ukraine. Authoritarian governments gotta stick together I guess.

China probably would use the same strategy to take parts of Russia so its not surprising at all but it should be a huge red flag to the Russians.

Both have nukes. Won't happen.
China wants Taiwan.

 

[fandingo]

random_slacker[/url]":2yk1j8hu]

Tijger[/url]":2yk1j8hu]

skylarjones[/url]":2yk1j8hu]http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-china-idUSBREA220GE20140303

Surprise, surprise, surprise. China agrees with how Russia is handling Ukraine. Authoritarian governments gotta stick together I guess.

China probably would use the same strategy to take parts of Russia so its not surprising at all but it should be a huge red flag to the Russians.

Both have nukes. Won't happen.
China wants Taiwan.

The difference is that Taiwan was smart enough to have a defense agreement, although not as strong as the original Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty, with a powerful military. On the other hand, Ukraine spurned both NATO and the EU (Military of the European Union) over more than the past decade. The Russians were the allies the Ukrainian people want (or wanted until four months ago), and that's exactly what they are seeming to get.

Tymoshenko deserves a lot of the blame for not pursuing NATO membership, even if it wasn't popular. That's not to say that Yanukovych might not have dramatically pulled out of NATO sometime between 2010 and now, but popularly elected Ukrainian governments have made significant progress towards integration with the West over the past decade. Before Yanukovych, there were words, but few results.

If NATO were to get directly involved, Ukraine would be a free rider. Instead, this is the time for NATO (and the military of the EU) to strongly show their force in eastern member countries to show that Russia's behavior is not acceptable against their actual members (and solicit new members as well).

 

[Buxaroo]

skylarjones[/url]":4996zsfb]How is Poland being threatened when it's Crimea Russia wants?

"Why would Poland worry when it's Austria Germany wants?"

Sure, a little hyperbolic, but you get the picture.

 

[Dilbert]

Europe needs to stop buying Russian natural gas. It won't help Ukraine today, but it will help the next little country Russian autocrat leader may want to invade in 10 or 20 years.

This will turn into a shooting war by the end of the week. It is inevitable at this point. Putin has made his intentions clear. And Ukrainians won't just pick up and leave Crimea. Hell no. So war. I bet the CIA has already drawn up a plan on how to arm and train Ukrainian military. Question is, besides the backroom deals and economic pressure and covert military assistance, how else is the US and NATO going to respond? Smart move would be to not respond openly militarily at all. No sailing a CBG in the Black Sea, or no fly zone, etc.... Way too high a risk of a shooting war with Russians. No one has ever won a war against Russians. Ever. And they got nukes.

 

[bakshi]

Dilbert[/url]":ali14o30]No one has ever won a war against Russians. Ever.

The Afghans might disagree.

 

[Deleted member 284552]

Point of order - Poland beat the USSR in 1920. They also are the only country in Europe to take and hold Moscow (like 1608 or something). (The Rzeczpospolita if one wants more details)

 

[Saint]

bakshi[/url]":5nzlijyw]

Dilbert[/url]":5nzlijyw]No one has ever won a war against Russians. Ever.

The Afghans might disagree.

Depends how you define "winners" and "losers" in that context.

 

[arcite]

@BBCWorld: "You call it a coup, in the democratic world we call it a revolution of dignity" - #Ukraine's UN envoy; live coverage http://t.co/091T32mw4m


I like this tweet, how can Putin fight that?

 

[skylarjones]

How can I tell my little boy
Of Oppenheimer's deadly toy?

-Sting

As bad as this all is, it's a heck of a lot better than what would have happened 25 years ago, when Russians and Americans collided.

 

[Xavin]

And they got nukes.

Everyone always brings up nukes in these regional conflict threads and it's ridiculous. There's zero chance the US or anyone else will put boots on the ground in Russia or China. They know it, we know it, everyone knows it. That means no nukes, no matter how much shooting goes on in some proxy. There's no possible gain from using nukes, for anyone.

Also keep in mind, we fought numerous proxy wars with Russia and China during the cold war, and not once did anyone pull out the nukes. If they didn't then, they certainly won't now.

 

[fandingo]

Dilbert[/url]":1fqvpczg]Europe needs to stop buying Russian natural gas. It won't help Ukraine today[...]

This and other economic means are the correct solutions to counter Russia. The thing is that something relatively forceful needs to happen quick. While the membership in the G8 doesn't really confer direct economic benefits (like a trade agreement), it is an important. The West's announcement that the other seven countries are suspending their preparations is weak. They need to immediately expel Russia with the statement that if a certain set of conditions are met, they'll welcome Russia back. If they want Russia out of Crimea (and more broadly Ukraine), they need to do some strong now.

This will turn into a shooting war by the end of the week.

If we define shooting war as anything people small arms skirmishes (i.e. no bombs, missiles, tank shells, etc.), I still don't think so.

It is inevitable at this point. Putin has made his intentions clear. And Ukrainians won't just pick up and leave Crimea. Hell no. So war.

The question is why would they fight to reclaim the territory. The interim government has already promised a referendum on making Crimea autonomous on May 25th, and the general consensus is that it will pass. It's not like they can just cancel that vote without setting off massive protests in Crimea.

I bet the CIA has already drawn up a plan on how to arm and train Ukrainian military.

I bet the America CIA is going to run into the rescue and magically train the rag-tag Ukrainian army to fight big bad Stalin. What would be the best song for this movie montage? There isn't anything the Ukrainian military (without massive conventional support from foreign powers) can do to resist Russia, and that's doubly true if the Russian military sticks to the pro-Russian parts of Ukraine.

 

[potato44819]

Dilbert[/url]":hc4825re]Europe needs to stop buying Russian natural gas. It won't help Ukraine today, but it will help the next little country Russian autocrat leader may want to invade in 10 or 20 years.

Too bad nuke power is off the table. I bet that decision is starting to feel really short-sighted right about now...

 

[Tijger]

Major General Thanatos[/url]":1sqf9033]

Dilbert[/url]":1sqf9033]Europe needs to stop buying Russian natural gas. It won't help Ukraine today, but it will help the next little country Russian autocrat leader may want to invade in 10 or 20 years.

Too bad nuke power is off the table. I bet that decision is starting to feel really short-sighted right about now...

Why? Nuclear being on the table doesnt help for the decade+ you need to build them.

Let me add to that, Germany is the only EU country which has closed nuclear power stations afaik and is now generating as much power from renewables as it did from nuclear power.

 

[Faramir]

Dilbert[/url]":3p3ulenn]No one has ever won a war against Russians. Ever.

The Russo-Japanese War was a disaster for the Russians. That was a major reason why Germany and Austria–Hungary were willing to push so hard during the Serbian crisis. Not to mention the whole being conquered by Genghis Khan thing.

 

[Chiaroscuro]

Xavin[/url]":275k41ii]

And they got nukes.

Everyone always brings up nukes in these regional conflict threads and it's ridiculous. There's zero chance the US or anyone else will put boots on the ground in Russia or China. They know it, we know it, everyone knows it. That means no nukes, no matter how much shooting goes on in some proxy. There's no possible gain from using nukes, for anyone.

Also keep in mind, we fought numerous proxy wars with Russia and China during the cold war, and not once did anyone pull out the nukes. If they didn't then, they certainly won't now.

I think Putin would fire off a nuke into Kiev without a second thought if it meant denying it to his opposition.

 

[Edzo]

Faramir[/url]":3b2vwuza]

Dilbert[/url]":3b2vwuza]No one has ever won a war against Russians. Ever.

The Russo-Japanese War was a disaster for the Russians. That was a major reason why Germany and Austria–Hungary were willing to push so hard during the Serbian crisis. Not to mention the whole being conquered by Genghis Khan thing.

Or, say, the Crimean War.

 

[skylarjones]

Putin is operating under the idea that Yanukovych is still President. So, the next step is for Yanukovych to declare martial law?

 

[Xavin]

I think Putin would fire off a nuke into Kiev without a second thought if it meant denying it to his opposition.

You can say a lot of things about Putin, but he has never given any indication that he is an irrational actor, and that's what would be required to use nukes. Even assuming he did, we wouldn't even need to shoot back, just give the ultimatum that the people responsible be publicly executed or arrested and turned over. Even Putin doesn't have enough control to stop that, nobody is pro-nuke.

 

[wco81]

Supposedly Putin had plans to modernize the economy, diversify beyond energy exports.

And he depends on external financing for certain key operations.

Doesn't seem like a rational decision at all, kind of like if China invaded Taiwan, which would seem to offer little economic or strategic benefit to them.

 

[potato44819]

Tijger[/url]":2qkduwtb]

Major General Thanatos[/url]":2qkduwtb]

Dilbert[/url]":2qkduwtb]Europe needs to stop buying Russian natural gas. It won't help Ukraine today, but it will help the next little country Russian autocrat leader may want to invade in 10 or 20 years.

Too bad nuke power is off the table. I bet that decision is starting to feel really short-sighted right about now...

Why? Nuclear being on the table doesnt help for the decade+ you need to build them.

Let me add to that, Germany is the only EU country which has closed nuclear power stations afaik and is now generating as much power from renewables as it did from nuclear power.

And if Germany had nuke+renewable active, how much energy could they export?

 

[cf18]

eXceLon[/url]":3vrabi4k]

skylarjones[/url]":3vrabi4k]http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-china-idUSBREA220GE20140303

Surprise, surprise, surprise. China agrees with how Russia is handling Ukraine. Authoritarian governments gotta stick together I guess.

I've basically figured that China and Russia were going to be the "bad guys" of the 21st century. Looks like they don't plan to disappoint.

You can paint them anything due to their intentionally vague statement and your prejudice. Do you think China would fall for this little trap so easily? China is certainly don't want to be involved, and would likely abstain from any UNSC votes again Russia - Russia and do the veto himself. Ukraine joining EU may cause some arm deals problems for China, but a Ukraine under Russia is also not that good since Russia also don't sell their best stuff to China. Ukraine has been kind of a back door for China to buy some more advanced Russian tech, see the carrier and J-15.

And this "game" may be far from over according to this former U.S. State Department official: Opinion: Next, Putin Will Seize Donetsk and Kharkiv

 

[Chiaroscuro]

Xavin[/url]":8edgc604]

I think Putin would fire off a nuke into Kiev without a second thought if it meant denying it to his opposition.

You can say a lot of things about Putin, but he has never given any indication that he is an irrational actor, and that's what would be required to use nukes. Even assuming he did, we wouldn't even need to shoot back, just give the ultimatum that the people responsible be publicly executed or arrested and turned over. Even Putin doesn't have enough control to stop that, nobody is pro-nuke.

Really? He's staging the military invasion of a sovereign nation to get something he'd have in 90 days anyway. That's about as irrational as it gets. He's pissing away a decade of Russian economic gains in a turf war he'd already won. Irrational.

 

[Tijger]

Major General Thanatos[/url]":wi5n1db5]

Tijger[/url]":wi5n1db5]

Major General Thanatos[/url]":wi5n1db5]

Dilbert[/url]":wi5n1db5]Europe needs to stop buying Russian natural gas. It won't help Ukraine today, but it will help the next little country Russian autocrat leader may want to invade in 10 or 20 years.

Too bad nuke power is off the table. I bet that decision is starting to feel really short-sighted right about now...

Why? Nuclear being on the table doesnt help for the decade+ you need to build them.

Let me add to that, Germany is the only EU country which has closed nuclear power stations afaik and is now generating as much power from renewables as it did from nuclear power.

And if Germany had nuke+renewable active, how much energy could they export?

Germany wouldnt have invested as much as they did if they still had all their nuclear power stations so that's a moot question anyway, its been a choice because the funding is limited in the end, they could keep running nuclear or invest in renewable but likely not do both at the same time as I understand it.

The other part of that is that Germany is exporting its renewable energy technology all over the world now.

 

[bakshi]

I don't think it's irrational. Rather, I'm starting to believe it's the fulfillment of a deliberate contingency plan prepared a long time ago, and which the Russians have done a poor job of adjusting in the face of unexpected developments.

This would explain why they've forged ahead with a narrative so disconnected from reality. The Ukrainians have not necessarily reacted in the way Russia expected (i.e., not one shot so far). I think they expected at least some Ukrainians to react with force, which would have allowed their intervention to be justified using the rhetoric we've been hearing...

 

[carlisimo]

As another transplant from the East Asia thread, I can’t help but think that something similar would happen in Taiwan, with a number of powerful people siding with China at a critical moment. Identities there are mixed too, at least at the top of the civilian and military power structures.

I suspect the new Ukrainian leadership just hasn’t had time to figure out who’s on whose side. Until the rest of Ukraine is invaded, it’s probably smart for them to hold their fire and see if the diplomats can sort things out first. That depends on the Russians not giving any short-term ultimatums… getting mixed reports about that. On the plus side, Russia seems to have hinted that it’d be happy with solutions that don’t include annexing Crimea, such as keeping it an autonomous region within Ukraine. Another reason to believe diplomacy can work without either side losing much.

 

[potato44819]

Tijger[/url]":1itqlk5u]

Major General Thanatos[/url]":1itqlk5u]

Tijger[/url]":1itqlk5u]

Major General Thanatos[/url]":1itqlk5u]

Dilbert[/url]":1itqlk5u]Europe needs to stop buying Russian natural gas. It won't help Ukraine today, but it will help the next little country Russian autocrat leader may want to invade in 10 or 20 years.

Too bad nuke power is off the table. I bet that decision is starting to feel really short-sighted right about now...

Why? Nuclear being on the table doesnt help for the decade+ you need to build them.

Let me add to that, Germany is the only EU country which has closed nuclear power stations afaik and is now generating as much power from renewables as it did from nuclear power.

And if Germany had nuke+renewable active, how much energy could they export?

Germany wouldnt have invested as much as they did if they still had all their nuclear power stations so that's a moot question anyway, its been a choice because the funding is limited in the end, they could keep running nuclear or invest in renewable but likely not do both at the same time as I understand it.

The other part of that is that Germany is exporting its renewable energy technology all over the world now.

Oh well then since there is such a surplus of energy, telling gazprom to fuck off and die is perfectly viable now, right?

 

[Tijger]

carlisimo[/url]":3f721gk9]As another transplant from the East Asia thread, I can’t help but think that something similar would happen in Taiwan, with a number of powerful people siding with China at a critical moment. Identities there are mixed too, at least at the top of the civilian and military power structures.

I suspect the new Ukrainian leadership just hasn’t had time to figure out who’s on whose side. Until the rest of Ukraine is invaded, it’s probably smart for them to hold their fire and see if the diplomats can sort things out first. That depends on the Russians not giving any short-term ultimatums… getting mixed reports about that. On the plus side, Russia seems to have hinted that it’d be happy with solutions that don’t include annexing Crimea, such as keeping it an autonomous region within Ukraine. Another reason to believe diplomacy can work without either side losing much.

Well, thats the thing, if Russia acquires the Crimea they'll also have to keep it running which isnt going to be cheap and with Russia's economy looking increasingly precarious that's something the Kremlin doesnt really want, never mind the headache of the entire Ukraine which will take tens of billions to sort out as it is let alone if its divided or taken over by Russia.

However, backing out is also bad since it will dent Putin's strong man image, even with his control over the media in this day and age there's not really much he can do to control the internet.

 

[Graeme K]

Edzo[/url]":3s5tro2v]

Faramir[/url]":3s5tro2v]

Dilbert[/url]":3s5tro2v]No one has ever won a war against Russians. Ever.

The Russo-Japanese War was a disaster for the Russians. That was a major reason why Germany and Austria–Hungary were willing to push so hard during the Serbian crisis. Not to mention the whole being conquered by Genghis Khan thing.

Or, say, the Crimean War.

I really wanted to be the first to reply with this. Russia and Crimea do not have a winning history.

 

[Tijger]

Major General Thanatos[/url]":lv6qioy4]

Tijger[/url]":lv6qioy4]

Major General Thanatos[/url]":lv6qioy4]

Tijger[/url]":lv6qioy4]

Major General Thanatos[/url]":lv6qioy4]

Dilbert[/url]":lv6qioy4]Europe needs to stop buying Russian natural gas. It won't help Ukraine today, but it will help the next little country Russian autocrat leader may want to invade in 10 or 20 years.

Too bad nuke power is off the table. I bet that decision is starting to feel really short-sighted right about now...

Why? Nuclear being on the table doesnt help for the decade+ you need to build them.

Let me add to that, Germany is the only EU country which has closed nuclear power stations afaik and is now generating as much power from renewables as it did from nuclear power.

And if Germany had nuke+renewable active, how much energy could they export?

Germany wouldnt have invested as much as they did if they still had all their nuclear power stations so that's a moot question anyway, its been a choice because the funding is limited in the end, they could keep running nuclear or invest in renewable but likely not do both at the same time as I understand it.

The other part of that is that Germany is exporting its renewable energy technology all over the world now.

Oh well then since there is such a surplus of energy, telling gazprom to fuck off and die is perfectly viable now, right?

I never said there was a surplus (although there is but not a great one) so please dont draw conclusions out of the air. You seem to forget that the energy (gas and oil) flow from Russia was interrupted before when Russia and Belarus had a spat, it didnt cause a collapse in Europe then and it will not now. We'd prefer it if the gas kept flowing but if not, so be it.

Russia is a major source of gas for Germany but there are alternatives and given the reserves in the EU (mandated) there would not be any major economic disruption.

 

[carlisimo]

Tijger[/url]":2xzwh3of]However, backing out is also bad since it will dent Putin's strong man image, even with his control over the media in this day and age there's not really much he can do to control the internet.

The post-Yanukovych government went too far, imo, in immediately repealing a law that allowed the use of other languages in courts and government functions. Putin could extract concessions on that front and back out believing that he’s successfully protected the rights of Russians in Crimea and the rest of Ukraine. I don’t know if that’s really his goal, but it’d be a reasonable one.

If he wants to keep Crimea, the problem is water – Ukraine can turn off the tap. Russia could shut off the flow of gas into Ukraine, but that would affect Europe too and I don’t know that Putin is ready for the ensuing issues. It may actually be helpful that Europe is dependent on Russian gas right now.