I'm not buying it. If anything, the constant attacks on civilians puts more pressure on politicians to send more aid, not the other way around. Arguably, Russian warcriming forced Scholz hand and is the reason Germany became the second largest supplier of military aid. Without that, he may never have moved on from the 5000 helmets policy. Sure, Orban and Fico are using civilian casualties to push for surrender, but they were pro-Putin from the onset and are using it as an excuse. They don't give two shits about civilian casualties, and they are not shaping their policy.
Ukraine is game to you? Part deux.
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That's because it doesn't make sense from any reasonable or realistic viewpoint. But then Putin is hardly a reasonable man, if he were, them we wouldn't be here. So it doesn't need to.
So, we need to get in Putin's headspace for a moment: first, we need to realize that Putin is stupid, specifically, he thinks that pretty much everyone with some power thinks in essentially the same way he does. Second, it's pretty clear that Putin doesn't have any respect for any of the principles behind international law. So, for him, the question is why does international law exist? His answer is likely something like: it must exist so as to give other countries an advantage over him through some misguided theory that he will comply. So his bombing of civilians sure shows them.
Though, while that idea you mentioned is close to correct, he is trying to demonstrate the uselessness of international law, he isn't doing so to give himself the right to conquer other countries, in his worldview he already has that. Just like those other countries are doing by trying to get him to over international law. (Indeed in his view, that's what the so-called 'color revolutions' are: the CIA conquering countries. But that's another rabbit hole for another day).
Putin is no doubt walking a fine line. How much more degradation can he subject Russia to before it becomes untenable to the people who can make things difficult for his cabal? We are probably well past the point where he could declare victory and go home. He has nothing else focus public opinion on, since most of that has been expended in this failed invasion. It's the sunk cost fallacy—demonstrated in blood and treasure.
The other piece is that forcing your generals on down to commit war crimes gives them a really solid incentive not to support any politician who thinks of normalizing relations with the west. It’s a truism of fascism that morally corrupted people are easier to control. Forcing your underlings to do immoral things is part of the bog standard fascist playbook.
The thing is, Zelenskyy would/will/might (choose your own assessment) personally walk into the fire if that was the price of Ukraine's long term survival. Putin, however, will not do the same for either Russia or the Russian people.
This has a number of consequences, some of them ... uncomfortable. Let us make two assumptions:
1) Putin's reign would go (possibly quite literally. Goose, gander and stuff) out of the window if he made peace with Ukraine with nothing to show for it
2) Putin values his own future over Russia's future
Under those assumptions "keep going in the hope an opportunity presents itself" is not irrational. It is not a sunk cost fallacy, or any fallacy. It is not a good solution, and I don't actually think Putin does think it is one; it however is, from my understanding (as a random guy on the internet) of his perspective, the least worst feasible option to him at this time.
This is an entire rational choice under that specific reference frame -- however much we might disagree with the frame itself.
According to Russia the big drone bombardment on Monday/Tuesday is reprisal for Ukraine blowing up the trainload of civilians on 6/1 and the reprisal for the Spiderweb drone attacks on 6/2 is still pending.
So their "reprisals" are on the same level as Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs - neither seems to understand the meaning of the terms. Russia invaded & attacked Ukraine first, any Ukraine actions are reprisal for that.
It is for an internal audience (i.e. Trump). I'm guessing they talk more than Trump says, and this "pending" neutralizes any suggestion from people in the US (aides, Senators, etc.) that Russia should stop the killing. Trump doesn't do time - everything is frozen in his mind. So Putin has planted the idea that Russia needs its revenge (Trump totally gets desire for revenge, he feels it, it is possibly one of the few feelings he actually has). Ukraine and Europe have to go it alone now, I think.
Putin may be trying to cause a refugee crisis with thousands of Ukrainians rushing to reach neighboring EU countries.
Would that hurt popular support in those countries for giving military and economic aid?
Would that hurt popular support in those countries for giving military and economic aid?
He already did. Anyone who was going to flee Ukraine already did so. As for affecting popular support, if that was the intention, it isn't working. 80% of EU citizens support the decision to accept Ukrainian refugees.
https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3372
Consider also that we already had immigration from Ukraine in the late 90s and early 2000s. At least in Italy, it is very common to find Ukrainian immigrants doing "humble" jobs. They are usually considered hard working, reliable people that integrate very well in our society. They also tend to be white and Christian so that's a plus for racist Italy.
Anecdotal and what not, but I never heard anyone complaining about Ukrainians.
Anecdotal and what not, but I never heard anyone complaining about Ukrainians.
Ukrainian refugees are a big political issue now in Poland.
Are Polish attitudes to Ukrainian refugees souring?
It has probably played a big role in the victory of the Populist Karol Nawrocki in the Presidential Election.
How Poland's election result could impact EU
I guess it's easier for us at the western end of EU to be supportive of the few Ukrainian refugees we see daily. But closer countries are wearing thin, at least in the public opinion, because the real effect of immigration is (as always) an enrichment of the host country.
Ukrainian refugees give Poland big economic boost, report says
SuinusLatinus
Ars Tribunus Militum
Same experience in Portugal.
But Putin may have other rationale or belief that he can turn around public opinion. Along with no doubt propaganda online in those countries taking in refugees.
you used to see the Ukrainian flag all the time in Western Europe 1-2 years ago as a show od solidarity.
Doesn't seem as common now as it used to be.
2022:War fatigue and they aren't even fighting the war
2025:
Fatigue is basically nonexistent. Poland is a bit of a special case, but when they have been spending nearly 5% of GDP supporting 3 million Ukrainian refugees - 8 percent of Poland's population, there's going to be some friction, even if it isn't really warranted.
And, yet, Poland still isn't even fighting the war. I can understand friction, but at the end of the day, friction beats the hell out of fighting Russia in your own land. Something that seems relatively likely for the Polish should Ukraine be defeated. There seems to be this camel hump regarding closeness to disaster where those close to disaster have less resilience than those far from it or in the middle of it.
Which ends up being somewhat tragic as that are in the position where resilience might save them from having to find resilience in the middle of the tragedy, but blindly they go walking toward it.
Russian disinformation is working overtime to sow FUD and dissent in Europe. I have first-hand knowledge of this hearing from European family.
If there’s only one thing Russia can do well, it’s driving wedges in potential adversaries.
If there’s only one thing Russia can do well, it’s driving wedges in potential adversaries.
And I wish the West would treat this like the existential threat that it is.
Would heartily agree.
The challenge is how insidious the efforts are. Key people—in government and media—have been co-opted to serve the Kremlin’s aims.
Whoever writes the history books in 50-100 years‘ time (assuming we’re still here, as a species) will be aghast at how behind the curve the West was when Russia launched their disinformation war.
Reporting From Ukraine has a depressing (For Russia) video.
1,000,000 casualties.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOUTx7f1LOU
It's just so .... sad.
1,000,000 casualties.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOUTx7f1LOU
It's just so .... sad.
No explicit clarification, but press release wording implies victims were Ukrainian refugees, not dual citizens.
Not exactly true. But of those that were successful, they were successful very quickly.
At this point, even if Russia were eventually successful in capturing Ukraine, they're going to be dealing with partisans and saboteurs... basically forever. It's going to make The Troubles seem tame.
About half of the 1M immigrants from the former USSR to Israel are Russian jews, and half are Ukrainian jews (not counting descendants).
In addition, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, there are about 45K Ukrainian refugees in the country.
They don't qualify for normal immigrant status, not being Jewish, nor as UNHCR 1967 Protocol asylum seekers, since they're not persecuted in their home country -- however, given the situation in Ukraine they've been accepted on humanitarian grounds, and are protected from deportation and allowed to work.
I wonder if the targeting civilian targets is intended to force interceptions, whereas if they targeted smaller fortified military ones a much more calculated "do we need to intercept it or trust it will miss?" decision might be made.
Honestly? Probably not. Putin will have absolutely no moral issue with performing the next step in Tsarist expansion. Genocide followed by migration of Russians to the region. If Russia manages to win, there will be no Ukrainians in the former Ukraine.
All the more reason to stop Russia now.
I'd take that particular channel with a grain of salt. At the time of the collapse/retreat of Ukraine from the Kursk region, he was reporting like Ukraine was making massive victories and beating back every Russian advance, yet if you watched the battle maps day after day they were losing ground and falling back. He has, being generous, a very optimistic take on things.
Yeah, this is a propaganda outlet. Perhaps entertaining and feel-good but not exactly on the mark. It’s doing a job with a demographic in need of positive news, though objective reporting it is not.
That's true. Sometimes they talk about related subjects, like today, the topic was Kazakhstan and its tentative outreach to the EU/West, as its government may be looking nervously at Ukraine and think "we might be next."
Agree. What RFU reports is highly selective. That said, if there's word of Russian troops going full mutiny on their commanders, I'm inclined to believe it. RFU might leave you with the impression that this a widespread phenomenon and has potential to change the course of the war. And this is where one needs to be intellectually cautious.
I think a lot of Russia's black market trade goes through Kazakhstan, so they might be okay for the time being. I'd put them below the Baltic states on the to-invade list at least.
Incidentally, it's thought that the Spiderweb drones and trailers were imported into Russia through the same black market channels, which is why they were set up in a warehouse next to the border there.
The Russian Empire aka "Prison of Nations" has a nasty reputation of extracting wealth and giving very little back. As well as stamping out as much culture/tradition as possible. Armenia was hoping to get a little help when Azerbaijan came for Nagorno-Karabakh. Nope. Syria? All they got were Russian bombs.
But apparently the US sees something nobody else does, because Trump really wants to be Putin's friend.
Please do not equate Trump with the entire US on this subject. At least half of us are solidly anti-Putin.
I should have specified US government. Hopefully more than half are anti-Putin. I was listening to him talk about how there would be no war right now if Russia hadn't been kicked out of the G8. Which had me seeing red. My apologies.
I'm well aware that RFU is very positively reporting for Ukraine. Nothing terrible happens for Ukraine, it's always a minor setback. And Russia is always losing. It's very obvious.
But, Russia isn't achieving much except dead bodies. It's turning out to be a very long three day Special Military Operation.
But, Russia isn't achieving much except dead bodies. It's turning out to be a very long three day Special Military Operation.
Zelensky and Trump were supposed to meet tomorrow, but that's off as Trump ran away left the G7. Thought people here might be interested in the timing between Trump leaving and Zelensky arriving. Posted a screenshot in the Canadian Politics thread, linked below.
https://meincmagazine.com/civis/threads/canadian-political-thread.1438671/post-43796880
https://meincmagazine.com/civis/threads/canadian-political-thread.1438671/post-43796880
RFU reports are propaganda, nothing more, nothing less. That in this case it is pro-Ukrainian propaganda changes nothing.
(Note: This does not blame Ukraine in any way. They should be expected to do everything in their power and within the rules of war to fight for their survival.)
I’ve a very real suspicion that Trump is getting puckered by the prospect of having to pick sides at the precipice while attempting his isolationist power plays of world supremacy, whilst also getting played by all sides or at least fearing he is (I mean, the US is certainly capable and has been shaping all of the current wars). That must be hard to think about, and even harder to know who might be making fun of you when such bigly machismo needs throwing around.
I’ll let these people work it out. Not my continent yet. They need to pay for it (sells more arms to Israel) and Putin will come around (how about some intel, Kyiv? Like that, yeah…it’s the best intel, beautiful. Made it myself. You want more sorry, I’m walking away from you, literally now on top of figuratively whatever that means.