The Commodity Futures Trading Commission wants us to know it's taking this very seriously.
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The US is betting on AI to catch insider trading in prediction markets
- Thread starter JournalBot
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AI: Beep, Boop Trump and Congress are involved in Insider trading.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Yeah, we're just going to ignore that, sounds like one of them hallucinations.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission: Yeah, we're just going to ignore that, sounds like one of them hallucinations.
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Well, I laughed. I thought fraud / corruption was the cool new thing in the US now.
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MilanKraft
Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius
"The company [PolyMarket] did not respond to WIRED’s request for comments...."
Almost always code for: "our representative won't be able to look your reporter in the eye and tell them we're not cutting ethical corners... also our lawyers told us never to talk to anyone in the press except through press releases."
As far as it goes, some enforcement of these shady-as-fork platforms is better than none. But we know what "enforcement" will mean with this Administration: "if we find that regular citizens or low level officials somewhere in the government or military have made money this way, we'll expose them, prosecute, and thump our chest... if someone higher up in government or among our tech bro homies is found gaming the system, you won't hear about it because that's different, bro."
Almost always code for: "our representative won't be able to look your reporter in the eye and tell them we're not cutting ethical corners... also our lawyers told us never to talk to anyone in the press except through press releases."
As far as it goes, some enforcement of these shady-as-fork platforms is better than none. But we know what "enforcement" will mean with this Administration: "if we find that regular citizens or low level officials somewhere in the government or military have made money this way, we'll expose them, prosecute, and thump our chest... if someone higher up in government or among our tech bro homies is found gaming the system, you won't hear about it because that's different, bro."
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Posturing. They won’t actually do anything as long as those well connected bros keep making money. This is just a press release to make it look like thy are doing something.
As they say a fish rots from the head down, and this fish has been rotting for a long time so it’s reached every corner.
As they say a fish rots from the head down, and this fish has been rotting for a long time so it’s reached every corner.
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Is this (CFTC) an independent Federal (US) agency?
If so, how long is that going to last if they are too successful?
/s
If so, how long is that going to last if they are too successful?
/s
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Only for the in crowd. Sensativity will be dialed up to the “find me a liberal” setting.
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This a few days after a story in which another US regulator fined a trust $1.5M for Musk doing almost exactly the same thing.
If this does anything at all it certainly won't apply to Trump and his supporters. Or they'll be pardoned anyway.
86 47
If this does anything at all it certainly won't apply to Trump and his supporters. Or they'll be pardoned anyway.
86 47
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The prediction market house never loses. The customers gamblers who won aren't taking money from the house. They're taking money from losers who had a contract go down in value lost a bet.
A casino (which pays out its own money) has incentive to catch cheaters. These prediction markets have incentive to encourage as much betting as possible. The only incentives for prediction markets to police bad actors are (1) threat by governments and (2) the bulk of the gamblers deciding that the game is rigged and they'd be fools to play.
I predict that the grift will continue.
A casino (which pays out its own money) has incentive to catch cheaters. These prediction markets have incentive to encourage as much betting as possible. The only incentives for prediction markets to police bad actors are (1) threat by governments and (2) the bulk of the gamblers deciding that the game is rigged and they'd be fools to play.
I predict that the grift will continue.
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Then why have they crossed out all the faces in pictures of the Administration hung up on the walls and written question marks over them?
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Who’s to say it won’t actually BE AI doing the insider trading? Remember that instance of Claude that broke out and mined bitcoin? Now imagine all of the Accenture consultants that a year ago had never even written of a prompt running integrations at F500 companies that crawl all over those databases.
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What’s the problem with a little insider trading between genocides, right friends?
/s (obviously)
The Cartoonish League of Evil (CLE) continues to produce stories nobody would believe if it weren’t happening in full view. Just imagine what they’re doing behind the fence.
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You have to admire how widespread it has become to appear to have concrete facts behind ridiculously non-specific words.
Feed the data into AI? Okay, which type of AI? There's at least ten subdomains of AI that could be relevant here, but they're somewhat non-overlapping. And feed... How? How do you represent the data?
And what "really great information" you get out of it? Be specific, give an example.
Oh, right. You don't know what you're talking about, but "AI is cool today, so let me talk out of my ass to sound smart. Plebs don't know shit anyway."
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So this could be a fancy statistical model that flags suspicious outlier behavior... or it could be "Hey @ Grok is this good?"
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Yeah, it has to be AI. Because statistical analysis and non-AI heuristics (such as customer makes very few bets and always wins big) aren't things.
/s
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Everything about our current reality would be too stupid and too obvious and far too on the nose for a Verhoeven movie, and yet it goes on. God’s a hack writer.
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The whole concept of Prediction Markets seems to me to be the plot of trying to generate Insider Trading. Why would anyone gamble gobs of money on absolutely rando stuff unless they had some kind of inside knowledge about it in the first place?
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Nora Lenderbee
Ars Tribunus Militum
People go to casinos all the time and bet gobs of money on random rolls of dice or deals of cards, even when they know that the house has a big edge, and even when they have no insider knowledge.
Yes, the prediction markets will attract those with insider knowledge because the insider knowledge reduces the gambling aspect of the bet and reduces the randomness.
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And, people who think they have insider knowledge because they've quote "figured it out".
There's plenty of examples of people who think they've figured out a winning move when they haven't. One of the most fun examples is that study after study has shown that 90% of professional money managers underperform the S&P 500. The two guys behind the Motley Fool famously testified about this to congress decades ago. [ And, my 401K thanks them for the suggestion a few decades ago of maxing out 401K contributions and putting it all on a S&P 500 index. ]
TL;DR - There's an unending supply of fools.
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As if this administration is actually going to crack down on fraud. Fraud is their entire game plan. And announcing your company has partnered with Palantir doesn't invoke any confidence. In fact, quite the opposite.
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Don't bother—even if anyone is caught, charged, and convicted, Trump will just pardon them.
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This is like a criminal turning on another criminal. AI was made to cheat people and steal and deny medical benefits. That includes jobs.
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I'm sure there's no chance it'll have a carve-out for elected critters. None, zero, nada, zilch.
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What data is the AI the US is using scrape to gain the ability to be able to handle this? Hmmm? What intellectual property was stolen?
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Not always. Putting glue on pizza toppings and eating rocks for your health don't seem to be widely known before the glorified autocomplete AI came up with those and similar "solutions".
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We don't need to worry about that EVER happening in the kingdom of the Orange Führer.
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We already had words, salad and even word salad. Those AI generated examples strongly resemble word salad. A more mixed up salad is still salad.
Happily, that's my dose of salad for today, I'm going to go have some pizza (hold the glue).
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Given that all federal agencies gate hiring and have been purging according to loyalty tests and pledges to Trump, I fully expect the result to be prosecutions leveraged as a political weapon that conveniently ignore Trump allies and of course Trump himself.
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